SPC Day 2 Thunderstorm Outlook Issued 0830Z 20040123

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ZCZC SPCSWODY2 ALL
ACUS02 KWNS 230833
SPC AC 230833

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0233 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2004

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S
CRP 15 W ALI 20 SW SAT 25 WSW JCT 40 W BWD 65 SSE CDS 15 SW FSI 30 S
ADM 45 N CLL 50 NW POE 30 SE ESF 10 SSE 7R4.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW DUG 65 ESE SOW
35 E GNT 30 S LVS 35 W CVS 15 WSW AMA 40 W P28 15 N CNU 30 NW HRO 35
WNW DYR 35 WNW MSL 0A8 PNS.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN AND ERN
TX AND SRN LA....

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE LOWER 48 THIS
PERIOD AS UPPER LOW NOW OVER NRN BAJA EJECTS FROM NW MEXICO INTO AR
IN RESPONSE TO A COMPLEX SERIES OF EVENTS OCCURRING UPSTREAM ACROSS
AK AND THE E PACIFIC.

NEWD RETREAT OF DEEP TROUGH NOW OVER THE NERN STATES WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY STRENGTHENING/DEEPENING OF S/SWLY FLOW OVER THE WRN
GULF/ERN PARTS OF THE SRN PLNS AND THE LWR MS VLY LATER TODAY/EARLY
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN ACROSS PARTS OF TX/OK/LA AND AR.  HOWEVER...PERSISTENT
INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE NWRN GULF...AND EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF
WARM ADVECTION RAINFALL FARTHER WEST LIKELY WILL CONFINE GREATEST
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN TO MIDDLE AND UPPER PORTIONS OF THE 
TX GULF CSTL PLN.

...SRN/SERN TX INTO SRN LA...
INCREASING WARM ADVECTION/MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF EJECTING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO YIELD FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION/
EMBEDDED THUNDER OVER SRN/ERN TX BY EARLY SATURDAY.  THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD BECOME MORE ORGANIZED LATER IN THE DAY AS DEEP SWLY SHEAR
INCREASES TO AOA 50 KTS AND A WEAK FRONT/WIND SHIFT LINE DEVELOPS
ALONG LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER FORCING ALOFT.  WHILE LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL LIKELY REMAIN WEAK...COMBINATION OF SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS
WITH MODERATE TO STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S SUGGESTS POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH SMALL SCALE
BOWS/ISOLATED TORNADOES.  THIS THREAT MAY SPREAD NEWD INTO PARTS OF
LA BEFORE PROPAGATION CARRIES STORMS BEYOND AXIS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN EARLY SUNDAY.

...CNTRL/NW TX INTO SRN OK...
A SECONDARY AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO PRECEDE AND
ACCOMPANY MAIN UPPER VORT CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING BAJA
TROUGH.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE ACCESS TO COLDER MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES /500 MB READINGS AOB MINUS 20C/ AND STRONGER...MORE
FOCUSED LARGE SCALE ASCENT.  WHILE DEEP SHEAR MAY BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER
RELATIVE TO POINTS FARTHER SE...WIND PROFILES SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE
OF SUPERCELLS. IN FACT...THE LESSER SHEAR MAY ACTUALLY FAVOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SUSTAINED STORMS GIVEN THAT VEERED FLOW IN THE
850-700 MB LAYER AND BOUNDARY LAYER CLOUDS MAY LIMIT DEVELOPMENT OF
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. LINEAR FORCING AND EXPECTED BACK/VEER
PATTERN OF AREA WIND PROFILES SUGGEST THAT SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
LIMITED TO HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND.

..CORFIDI.. 01/23/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.

$$