SPC Day 2 Thunderstorm Outlook Issued 0830Z 20040124

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ZCZC SPCSWODY2 ALL
ACUS02 KWNS 240830
SPC AC 240830

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2004

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW 7R4 50 NNE HEZ
30 W UOX 60 SW ARG 15 NE FSM 25 W JLN 15 WSW BLV 30 NNE HUF 15 ENE
ZZV 40 SSW EKN 25 WNW HKY 45 WSW SOP 40 N HSE ...CONT... 40 ENE SAV
35 WNW AYS 30 SE TLH.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER NW MEXICO EXPECTED TO EJECT NE INTO CONFLUENT
FLOW OVER THE OH VLY ON SUNDAY AS UPSTREAM DISTURBANCES NOW
APPROACHING THE BC AND NRN CA COASTS EVOLVE INTO A BROAD...
PROGRESSIVE LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION.

AT LOWER LEVELS...SURFACE WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH MEXICAN
IMPULSE...LIKELY TO BE OVER NRN AR AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...
SHOULD CONTINUE ENEWD AND WEAKEN.  NWD MOTION OF ASSOCIATED WARM 
FRONT OVER THE GULF CST STATES WILL PROBABLY BE SLOWED BY RAINFALL
FROM WARM ADVECTION/SQUALL LINE CONTINUING FROM THE DAY 2 PERIOD
OVER LA/MS/NRN AL.  THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE SLOWLY EWD
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...BECOMING ORIENTED NEARLY 
PARALLEL TO DEEP WSWLY FLOW.

...CNTRL/ERN GULF CST RGN...
CONVECTIVE BAND/POSSIBLE SQUALL LINE CONTINUING FROM THE DAY 2
PERIOD MAY POSE A LIMITED THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER/ISOLATED
TORNADOES OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN GULF CST ON SUNDAY AS GLANCING
INFLUENCE OF EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAINTAINS SUFFICIENT /50-60
KT/ DEEP SHEAR FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE AHEAD OF LINE...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
LIKELY TO RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S NWD INTO CNTRL PARTS OF
MS/AL. BUT WITH UPPER SYSTEM LIFTING NEWD AWAY FROM REGION...MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHOULD REMAIN WEAK. AT THE
SAME TIME...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT LOW LEVEL
DESTABILIZATION.  ANY SEVERE THREAT WHICH DOES DEVELOP AND/OR
CONTINUE FROM THE DAY 2 PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AND/OR
DIMINISH LATER IN THE DAY AS CONVECTION PROPAGATES EWD BEYOND
STRONGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW.

SOME REINTENSIFICATION OF THE CONVECTIVE BAND COULD OCCUR LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY OVER THE N CNTRL/NERN GULF CSTL WATERS
NEWD INTO THE FL PANHANDLE/SRN AL AND SW GA. DEVELOPMENT OF LARGE
SCALE WRN U.S. TROUGH WILL RESULT IN FORMATION OF A JET ENTRANCE
REGION AND STRENGTHEN MESOSCALE ASCENT OVER THE SERN U.S.  ONCE
AGAIN...HOWEVER...WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT DEGREE/COVERAGE OF
ANY ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT.

..CORFIDI.. 01/24/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.

$$