SPC Day 2 Thunderstorm Outlook Issued 0830Z 20040125

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ZCZC SPCSWODY2 ALL
ACUS02 KWNS 250835
SPC AC 250835

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0235 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2004

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE
JAX 55 SSE CTY ...CONT... 25 W PFN 25 SSW CSG 55 NNW AYS 20 ENE SAV.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S HUM 45 W SEM 30
ENE ANB 25 ESE AND 40 ESE CLT 20 SW GSB 10 WSW HSE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S SDF PAH 35 ENE
VIH 35 W SPI 45 ESE MMO 35 NE FWA 30 SE MFD 35 E CRW 15 SE 5I3 35 S
SDF.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SE AL/SRN GA AND
NRN FL...

...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD...PROGRESSIVE LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL EVOLVE OVER THE WRN
U.S. DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS AS SHORTWAVE IMPULSES NOW INVOF
WA/ORE/ID AND BAJA CA PHASE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. THE
COMBINED SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE E ACROSS THE PLNS AND MS VLY ON
MONDAY...AND ASSUME A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT AS DOWNSTREAM HEIGHTS
RISE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC CST.

AT THE SURFACE...LEE CYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH WRN TROUGH...LIKELY TO
BE OVER NRN OK AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...SHOULD DEEPEN AS IT
HEADS NEWD THROUGH THE PERIOD...DESPITE PRESENCE OF SHALLOW COLD AIR
MASS OVER THE MID MS/LWR OH VLYS.  FARTHER SE...A WEAK SURFACE WAVE
MAY DEVELOP ALONG EXISTING STALLED FRONT OVER AL/SRN GA. THIS
BOUNDARY MAY EXPERIENCE SOME INTENSIFICATION BETWEEN NOW AND MONDAY
AS PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR STRONG COLD AIR DAMMING OVER THE
ERN CAROLINAS/N GA.  THE WAVE SHOULD ACCELERATE E OFF THE CAROLINA
CST MONDAY EVENING.

...SE AL/SRN GA AND N FL...
LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM/SQUALL LINE NOW OVER LA/MS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AND/OR BECOME STATIONARY OVER SRN AL/THE WRN FL PANHANDLE AND
THE N CNTRL GULF BY EARLY MONDAY AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING OVERSPREADS
REGION IN WAKE OF UPPER IMPULSE NOW EJECTING NE ACROSS THE SRN PLNS.


AS SRN AL/S GA AND THE NWRN GULF EXPERIENCE GLANCING INFLUENCE OF
NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH CROSSING THE LWR MS VLY...EXPECT THAT THE
CONVECTIVE BAND WILL REINTENSIFY AND/OR THAT NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT
WILL OCCUR OVER REGION.  ONSET OF FAVORABLY-TIMED DIURNAL HEATING
CYCLE AND CONTINUED MOISTURE INFLUX AHEAD OF THE STORMS SHOULD BOOST
SBCAPE TO NEAR 1000 J/KG OVER THE ERN FL PANHANDLE NWD/EWD INTO
PARTS OF S GA AND N FL...DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. COUPLED WITH ARRIVAL OF STRONGER WSW FLOW ALOFT /500 MB
SPEEDS INCREASING TO AOA 70 KT/...SETUP SHOULD BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF
A FEW EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITH SMALL SCALE BOWING SEGMENTS/ISOLATED
TORNADOES.  THE NRN EDGE OF THIS THREAT SHOULD BE SHARPLY LIMITED BY
COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH DAMMING OVER THE CAROLINAS NOSING SW INTO
CNTRL GA.

ANY SEVERE THREAT WHICH DOES DEVELOP SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE IN THE
DAY AS /1/ THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND /2/ REGION OF STRONGEST LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE/INFLOW SWEEPS E OFF THE GA/CAROLINA CST.

..CORFIDI.. 01/25/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.

$$