SPC Day 2 Thunderstorm Outlook Issued 0830Z 20040129

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ZCZC SPCSWODY2 ALL
ACUS02 KWNS 290829
SPC AC 290829

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CST THU JAN 29 2004

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 7R4 10 WSW BTR 40 NW
GPT MOB 20 SW PNS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 W MIA 30 S PBI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE BLI 20 WNW EAT
15 N PUW 35 WSW BTM 20 N IDA TWF 30 WNW 4LW 40 SSW OTH.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A SOMEWHAT MORE AMPLIFIED BUT STILL PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN 
EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER 48 ON THIS PERIOD AS HEIGHT RISES IN THE
GULF OF AK DRIVE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW CROSSING 150W ESE TOWARD THE
NRN CA CST.  THIS SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE E ACROSS THE NRN GRT BASIN
ON FRIDAY AS DOWNSTREAM SRN BRANCH DISTURBANCE...NOW OVER NRN SONORA
...MOVES E/SE TOWARD THE LOWER RIO GRANDE.

SOME DISAGREEMENT CONTINUES IN THE HANDLING OF THE SONORA SHORTWAVE
...WITH A COMPROMISE SOLUTION CLOSE TO THAT OF THE GFS APPEARING TO
BE MOST FAVORED IN LIGHT OF RECENT MODEL TRENDS AND SATELLITE DATA.
THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY WEAK CYCLOGENESIS IN
THE WRN GULF.  THE MAIN SURFACE CENTER SHOULD...HOWEVER...REMAIN
WELL TO THE SOUTH /AROUND THE LATITUDE OF BRO/ THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING N TOWARD MSY.

...CNTRL GULF CST...
WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND WARM ADVECTION DOWNSTREAM FROM SRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE IMPULSE MAY SUPPORT SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER EARLY IN
THE PERIOD ALONG THE CNTRL GULF CST.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD RETREAT
SWD WITH TIME AS UPPER TROUGH TEMPORARILY SHEARS EWD IN CONFLUENT
FLOW OVER THE ERN GULF.

...FAR S TX...
MODEST SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY /CAPE TO 500 J/KG/ MAY DEVELOP OVER
EXTREME S TX FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS HEATING OCCURS BENEATH TROUGH AXIS
ALOFT. DIVERGENT LOW LEVEL NELY FLOW SHOULD NEGATE ANY POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. 

...PAC NW/NRN GRT BASIN...
SCATTERED...DIURNALLY-ENHANCED POST FRONTAL THUNDER POSSIBLE ALONG
THE N PACIFIC CST AND OVER THE NRN GRT BASIN ON FRIDAY AS UNSTABLE
CYCLONIC FLOW OVERSPREADS REGION IN WAKE OF NRN STREAM TROUGH.

..CORFIDI.. 01/29/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.

$$