SPC Day 2 Thunderstorm Outlook Issued 0830Z 20040130

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ZCZC SPCSWODY2 ALL
ACUS02 KWNS 300803
SPC AC 300803

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0203 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2004

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E ICT 20 SE OJC 40
WSW JEF 35 S TBN 50 S HRO 35 W PGO 35 SSE OKC END 45 E ICT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PFN 45 NE MGR 25 ESE
SAV.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
ETA AND GFS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DURING
THE PERIOD...AND BRING SRN STREAM SYSTEM NOW OVER NRN MEXICO EWD
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO SATURDAY NIGHT.  DEEP...PROGRESSIVE TROUGH
AXIS ALSO DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS TO THE SOUTH OF UPPER LOW
FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES.  

...FL...
H85 WINDS WILL STEADILY STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE SOUTH ACROSS FL DURING
THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD...IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING SRN
STREAM SYSTEM. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN LOW AND MID LEVEL SHEAR
STARTING LATE SATURDAY AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...AS LARGE SCALE
ASCENT OVERSPREADS GRADUALLY MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER.  THOUGH ELY
SURFACE WINDS WILL PERSIST EARLY IN THE PERIOD...EXPECT A WARM FRONT
WILL BISECT THE STATE BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE
/I.E. SFC DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S/ SPREADING INTO CENTRAL
FL ON INCREASING SLY WINDS.  RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH 70+
SURFACE DEW POINTS IS EXPECTED INTO THE SRN TIP BY SATURDAY NIGHT.  

A LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OR MOVE ACROSS THE
WRN GULF AND INTO FL LATE SATURDAY EVENING OR OVERNIGHT AS LARGE
SCALE ASCENT SPREADS EWD.  PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE INSTABILITY.  ETA AND GFS FORECAST
CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH SOME QPF ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE DAY. 
THIS MAY MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CAP TO THE SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER AS
SURFACE HEATING REMAINS LIMITED...AND LIMIT LAPSE RATES.  GIVEN
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING INSTABILITY...WILL OPT TO MAINTAIN
LOW PROBABILITIES...THOUGH UPGRADE MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER OUTLOOKS
SHOULD IT APPEAR AIR MASS WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST.

...CENTRAL/NRN OK INTO SERN KS/SWRN MO/NWRN AR...
SSWLY LLJ IS FORECAST TO INCREASE OVER NRN TX INTO ERN/CENTRAL OK
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...AS IMPULSE DIVES SEWD AND DIGS TROUGH AXIS
ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES.  AS THIS OCCURS...UVVS WILL INCREASE
 ACROSS THIS REGION AND MAY SUPPORT A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN LARGER AREA OF PRECIPITATION AS AIR MASS BECOMES WEAKLY
UNSTABLE.  THIS MAY OCCUR OVER SUB-FREEZING SURFACE AIR IN WAKE OF
ARCTIC COLD FRONT...ENHANCING PRECIPITATION RATES OVER NRN OK AND
SERN KS/SWRN MO.

..EVANS.. 01/30/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.

$$