SPC Day 2 Thunderstorm Outlook Issued 1730Z 20040112

<--Previous Outlook        Next Outlook-->


ZCZC SPCSWODY2 ALL
ACUS02 KWNS 121729
SPC AC 121729

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 AM CST MON JAN 12 2004

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z.

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

MODELS INDICATE SPLIT FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC/
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. 
LARGE-SCALE RIDGING EMBEDDED WITHIN ONE BELT OF STRONGER WESTERLIES
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST STATES AND INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST...WHILE TROUGH REMAINS IN BELT TO THE SOUTH...ACROSS BAJA AND
THE NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU.  IN THE EAST...POLAR LOW WILL SHIFT
FROM THE HUDSON/JAMES BAY AREA INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR STABLY STRATIFIED
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S...PRECLUDING
SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.


...SOUTH CENTRAL STATES...
MODELS DO SUGGEST SOME MOISTENING/WEAK DESTABILIZATION ACROSS PARTS
OF THE ARKLATEX LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.  THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF MID/HIGH-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
NOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU/SOUTHERN ROCKIES.  THIS FEATURE IS
PROGGED TO SLOWLY ADVANCE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING... BEFORE WEAKENING AND ACCELERATING EAST SOUTHEASTWARD IN
CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION WILL PERSIST IN ITS WAKE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX...BUT OVERALL ...LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION AND ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO BECOME
SUFFICIENT FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN VERY LOW PROBABILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

..KERR.. 01/12/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.

$$