SPC Day 2 Thunderstorm Outlook Issued 1730Z 20040113

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ZCZC SPCSWODY2 ALL
ACUS02 KWNS 131730
SPC AC 131730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2004

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z.

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

SPLIT IN LARGE-SCALE UPPER FLOW PATTERN PERSISTS ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...WITH ONE BRANCH OF STRONGER FLOW CURVING AROUND UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC COAST STATES/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...BEFORE
MERGING WITH BELT OF STRONGER FLOW ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF POLAR
LOW...NOW REDEVELOPING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. 
ANOTHER BELT CURVES CYCLONICALLY AROUND UPPER TROUGH OVER BAJA AND
THE MEXICAN PLATEAU...BEFORE MERGING INTO MEAN TROUGH EAST OF THE
ROCKIES.

...GULF STATES...
SHORT WAVE WHICH EMANATED FROM SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH IS NOW
PROGRESSING EAST SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. 
THIS FEATURE WILL ACCELERATE EASTWARD IN CONFLUENT MID-LEVEL FLOW
REGIME ACROSS THE GULF STATES...AND IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS OFF THE
SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  PRIMARY INFLUENCE OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TO CONTRIBUTE TO MOISTENING ENVIRONMENT ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GULF COAST STATES.  WEAK
DESTABILIZATION IS PROGGED IN THE REMNANT TONGUE OF MOISTURE ACROSS
EAST TEXAS...NORTHERN/CENTRAL LOUISIANA...AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.  HOWEVER...THIS REGION WILL BE LOCATED
BENEATH CONFLUENT AND INCREASINGLY SUBSIDENT MID-LEVEL FLOW
REGIME...AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW TOPPING WESTERN RIDGE...DIGS
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING
...BEFORE CONTINUING INTO THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES OVERNIGHT.
 THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE THREAT FOR DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

...PACIFIC COAST STATES/SOUTHERN PLATEAU...
STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES INTO MEAN UPPER
RIDGE. SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE PACIFIC COAST DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE PORTION OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL LIFT OUT OF
SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH...INTO THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU/ROCKIES REGION.

PRIMARY MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR DESTABILIZATION WITH BOTH FEATURES...
HOWEVER...DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO INFLUENCE THE WESTERN/
SOUTHWESTERN STATES DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.  THUS...POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE MEXICAN
PLATEAU...AND AREAS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST.

..KERR.. 01/13/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.

$$