SPC Day 2 Thunderstorm Outlook Issued 1730Z 20040114

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ZCZC SPCSWODY2 ALL
ACUS02 KWNS 141728
SPC AC 141728

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 AM CST WED JAN 14 2004

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE FHU 40 NNE PHX
INW 40 SSW GUP 10 W ONM ROW 10 S LBB MWL 15 SSW CLL 30 NW NIR 55 NW
LRD.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

LARGE-SCALE BLOCKING PATTERN/SPLIT FLOW REGIME CONTINUES FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.  MODELS INDICATE LITTLE
CHANGE THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...AND TROUGH OVER BAJA AND THE NORTHERN MEXICAN
PLATEAU.  VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGHS...EMANATING FROM UPSTREAM...
ZONAL LOWER-LATITUDE PACIFIC JET...CONTINUE TO WEAKEN IN THIS REGIME
AS THEY APPROACH THE PACIFIC COAST.  THE LATEST OF THESE IS NOW
SPLITTING INTO TWO MORE DISTINCT SHORT WAVES OFF THE PACIFIC
COAST...WHICH WILL MIGRATE INLAND THURSDAY AS ANOTHER STRONG SHORT
WAVE LIFTS TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.

SOUTHERN PORTION OF SPLITTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DIG
STRONGLY ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST...INTO BASE OF LARGER-SCALE
SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...
MODELS SUGGEST A SERIES OF DOWNSTREAM SHORT WAVES WILL LIFT OUT OF
THE MEXICAN PLATEAU INTO CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS.

...SOUTHERN PLATEAU/ROCKIES/RIO GRANDE VALLEY...
LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. 
INFLUX OF MID/HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE LOWER LATITUDE PACIFIC
WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM...AS WILL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN UP
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. IN CONJUNCTION WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL
COOLING... FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DESTABILIZATION EARLY IN THE
DAY MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...BASED MAINLY IN THE 850 TO 700 MB LAYER...ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL TEXAS.  THIS ACTIVITY IS THEN EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
DURING THE MID DAY OR AFTERNOON HOURS...AS FORCING WEAKENS/SHIFTS
EASTWARD.

PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS IS EXPECTED WITH APPROACH OF NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH...IN MOIST
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU. 
HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
MOGOLLON RIM AND MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...AIDED BY FAVORABLE
OROGRAPHIC FORCING.

AS SECOND SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS ACROSS THE MEXICAN PLATEAU
THURSDAY NIGHT...AREA OF STRONGER FORCING MAY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY BY 
15/12Z.

..KERR.. 01/14/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.

$$