SPC Day 2 Thunderstorm Outlook Issued 1730Z 20040117

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ZCZC SPCSWODY2 ALL
ACUS02 KWNS 171725
SPC AC 171725

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2004

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE 7R4 25 NNW ESF
45 NW JAN 15 WNW CBM 40 NNW BHM 20 W RMG 15 SSE AND 10 ESE ILM.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED TWO DISTINCT UPPER LOWS...ONE OVER
NWRN TX AND THE SECOND ACROSS SERN AZ...WITH BOTH LOCATED WITHIN A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH FROM THE SWRN STATES/NRN MEXICO EWD ACROSS THE
SRN PLAINS.  THIS COMPLEX POSITIVE TILTED TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
DEAMPLIFY ON DAY 2 AS IT MOVES EWD INTO DEVELOPING CONFLUENT FLOW
ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY/GULF COAST STATES...WHILE A NRN STREAM
TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE ERN STATES.  A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE ERN U.S. TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES SWWD TO ALONG THE SRN PORTION OF THE GULF COAST STATES BY
19/00Z.

...SRN GA SWD TO CENTRAL FL...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ENEWD ACROSS SRN TX/NERN MEXICO
WILL WEAKEN ON DAY 1 AS IT MOVES INTO CONFLUENT FLOW TO ITS EAST.
THIS WEAKENING TREND IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE ON DAY 2 AS IT MOVES
ACROSS SRN GA/FL.

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD FROM
SWRN GA SWWD INTO THE ERN GULF ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH.  GREATER INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO
BE LOCATED OFFSHORE...WHERE STORMS SHOULD BE STRONGER. HOWEVER...IF
A BOW/LEWP CAN DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY 1 PERIOD...THEN THERE WOULD
BE A THREAT FOR GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN GA/NRN
FL DURING THE MORNING. OVERALL THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY WITH DECREASING UPPER
FORCING.  A SECOND POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS WILL EXIST
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO MUCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG.  THOUGH UNIDIRECTIONAL
WIND PROFILES WILL LIMIT CONVERGENCE/FOCUS FOR STORM INITIATION...
STRONG MID-LEVEL WLY FLOW WOULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
GUST.

...CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SWD ACROSS THE SRN PORTION OF THE GULF COAST
STATES...MODELS SUGGEST THE THREAT FOR CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD.  HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS WILL BE MINIMAL AT BEST...GIVEN WEAK TO VERY LITTLE
INSTABILITY AND WEAK VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE
RIDGING.  THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE INTO THE NRN GULF
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY...DIMINISHING THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT OVER LAND.

..PETERS.. 01/17/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.

$$