SPC Day 2 Thunderstorm Outlook Issued 1730Z 20040123

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ZCZC SPCSWODY2 ALL
ACUS02 KWNS 231749
SPC AC 231749

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1149 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2004

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE
DRT 40 E SJT 60 N ABI 20 SE SPS 40 SW DUA 20 NE ACT 45 ENE LFK 30
ENE HEZ 40 N MSY 30 SSW HUM ...CONT... 55 S CRP LRD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S DUG 45 NNW ALM
35 SE CVS 50 N GAG 40 S EMP 25 SSW MKL 30 SW 0A8 35 SSE MOB.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF TX INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY...

...SRN PLAINS THROUGH LOWER MS VALLEY...

THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SWRN U.S. WILL EJECT EWD THROUGH THE SRN
PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER
IMPULSE DROPS INTO THE NWRN U.S.. SURFACE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE
SERN U.S. WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD WITH MOIST SLY BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE WRN GULF BY LATE TONIGHT.


ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO ENTRAIN DRYER AIR INTO MUCH OF THE
GULF WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY AROUND 60 OFF THE SERN TX COAST. THE AIR
OVER THE GULF WILL HAVE LIMITED TIME TO MODIFY BEFORE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE SLY...AN AXIS OF LOWER 60S
DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND ADVECT INLAND THROUGH E AND SERN
TX. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE OVER ERN TX AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
INTENSIFIES LATER TONIGHT RESULTING IN DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. THIS IN ADDITION TO LIMITED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN WILL LIKELY LIMIT DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION.

POTENTIAL FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION WILL EXIST ACROSS CNTRL/ERN TX
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS INITIAL AREA OF PRECIPITATION LIFTS NEWD
TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY. STEEPER LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND POSSIBLE HEATING AHEAD OF SHARPENING DRYLINE
MAY CONTRIBUTE TO AN AXIS OF MLCAPE BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG ACROSS
CNTRL TX. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH RESULTS IN INCREASING ASCENT
AND DESTABILIZATION ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF SHARPENING DRYLINE.
THOUGH LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY VEER SOMEWHAT AS SURFACE LOW
DEEPENS FARTHER N...DEEP SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS
WITH DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY EVOLVE INTO A LOW TOPPED LINE AS IT CONTINUES EWD THROUGH
SERN TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE
MORE MARGINAL IN THESE REGIONS...SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND BOWS.

SECONDARY AREA OF CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE UPPER
LOW CENTER ACROSS NWRN TX INTO OK. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED
HAIL GIVEN COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...
ESPECIALLY IF SEVERAL HOURS OF SURFACE HEATING OCCUR BEFORE
INITIATION.

..DIAL.. 01/23/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.

$$