SPC Day 2 Thunderstorm Outlook Issued 1730Z 20040124

<--Previous Outlook        Next Outlook-->
Back to Verification Portal


ZCZC SPCSWODY2 ALL
ACUS02 KWNS 241708
SPC AC 241708

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1108 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2004

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW LCH ESF MEM 50
NNW HOT 20 NE MKO 25 SSE CNU 15 WSW BLV 10 S HUF 15 WNW PIT 30 S HTS
30 SSW AVL 15 WSW CAE 35 SSE ECG ...CONT... 40 ENE SAV 20 NNW JAX 15
SW CTY.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY OPENING UP OVER SONORA WILL EJECT NEWD TONIGHT
AND THEN WEAKEN IN CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE OH VLY SUNDAY. 
PROGRESSIVE UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH CENTERED 34N127W SHOULD DIG INTO
NWRN MX TONIGHT AND THEN TURN EWD INTO THE CNTRL GULF STATES BY
EARLY MONDAY.  AT THE SURFACE...WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
FIRST IMPULSE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TODAY...REACH THE
CNTRL GULF STATES TONIGHT...THEN STALL AS IT AWAITS THE UPSTREAM
DISTURBANCE SUNDAY NIGHT.  THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
ORGANIZED TSTMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

...CNTRL/ERN GULF COAST...
A LOOSELY ORGANIZED LINE OF TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...ARCING FROM SRN MO INTO THE LWR MS VLY REGION.
 THE LINE WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY AS UPPER SUPPORT WEAKENS AND
PASSES OFF WELL NORTH OF THE REGION...REPLACED BY WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGING.  ASIDE FROM WEAKENING LARGE SCALE SUPPORT...WEAK CONFLUENT
ZONE WILL REMAIN AND STALL ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COAST.  ANY HEATING
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAY DESTABILIZE THE COLUMN SUFFICIENTLY TO GIVE
A RISK OF TSTMS.  MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE RATHER POOR...BUT
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
TSTMS. THUS...THERE WILL REMAIN A MARGINAL THREAT FOR ISOLD
DAMAGING WINDS AS LINES OF TSTMS MOVE NEWD FROM THE LOWER MS VLY
INTO PARTS OF MS/AL DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...TAIL END OF THE FRONT MAY BECOME MORE ACTIVE ACROSS THE
CNTRL/ERN GULF COASTAL REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS UPSTREAM 80-85 KT
H5 JET MAX MOVES INTO THE GULF COASTAL REGION. STRONGER INSTABILITY
SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE...BUT SUSTAINED AND INCREASING ONSHORE
FLOW...FAVORABLE LOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND APPROACH OF LARGE SCALE
ASCENT MAY PROVE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH DAMAGING WINDS/
TORNADOES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST OF MS/AL/FL BY MONDAY
MORNING.  GREATER RISKS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL DAY 3...HOWEVER. 
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND THE FACT THAT THE THREAT WILL BE
VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD...WILL MAINTAIN SUB-SEVERE CATEGORICAL
PROBABILITIES.

..RACY.. 01/24/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.

$$