SPC Day 2 Thunderstorm Outlook Issued 1730Z 20040125

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ZCZC SPCSWODY2 ALL
ACUS02 KWNS 251711
SPC AC 251711

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1111 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2004

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW
PNS 40 SW TOI 40 S CSG 20 SSE SAV ...CONT... 15 SE DAB 40 N PIE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE GPT 50 W SEM
30 ENE ANB AHN CAE 25 ESE FLO 15 S ILM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BNA 20 WSW DYR 35 NW
POF BLV 20 NNE HUF 20 WNW FDY 25 ENE MFD PKB JKL BNA.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN
AL...SRN GA AND NRN FL...

...SYNOPSIS...
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER MEXICO...WILL BE EJECTED
ENEWD ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL STATES ON MONDAY...AS THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH AMPLIFIES INTO THE SRN PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SURFACE LOW
WILL TRACK NEWD FROM AR INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH THE ASSOCIATED
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE MS RIVER VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON
...A PREFRONTAL TROUGH SHOULD MOVE ACROSS AL AND INTO SRN GA/FL
PANHANDLE DURING THE DAY. EXISTING PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR STALLED
FRONT/COLD AIR DAMMING TO REMAIN OVER THE CAROLINAS/N GA AND LIMIT
THE SEVERE THREAT AREA TO SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY.

...EXTREME SERN AL/SRN GA AND N FL...
LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
COASTAL STATES...IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY AS IMPULSE
OVER THE MS VALLEY REGION LIFTS NEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY. HOWEVER...
FORCING IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE MONDAY MORNING AS MEXICO SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES AREA ALONG WITH AN 80 KT MID LEVEL WIND MAX.
CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
ACROSS SRN AL/WRN FL PANHANDLE ALONG PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...WHICH IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED IN LA. WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR FORECAST TO BE NEAR
70 KT AND MUCAPES BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG...SETUP SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE
OF A FEW EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITH SMALL SCALE BOWING SEGMENTS. WIND
DAMAGE WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT...THOUGH TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
AS LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL APPROACH 30 KT WITH SRH AROUND 200 M2/S2. AS
IS TYPICAL DURING COLD SEASON SEVERE...THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POOR LAPSE RATES AND WARM TEMPERATURES AROUND
700 MB. HOWEVER...THE FORCING AND IMPRESSIVE SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO OCCUR. ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP...
SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE BY LATE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/MOIST INFLOW SHIFTS NEWD INTO THE ATLANTIC.

...OHIO VALLEY...
STRONG FORCING WILL SPREAD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY AS
AMPLIFYING TROUGH LIFTS NEGATIVELY TILTED FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO
THE MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY REGION. LIFTING AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH MAY
COOL THE COLUMN BETWEEN 700 AND 400 MB ENOUGH TO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.

..IMY.. 01/25/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.

$$