SPC Day 2 Thunderstorm Outlook Issued 1730Z 20040126

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ZCZC SPCSWODY2 ALL
ACUS02 KWNS 261702
SPC AC 261702

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1102 AM CST MON JAN 26 2004

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNE HSE 50 NE RWI
50 NNW RWI 10 E DAN 25 NNW GSO 45 SSW BLF 30 S 5I3 15 W JKL 35 S LUK
20 W LUK 10 WNW DAY 40 WSW MFD 25 ESE MFD 10 SSE HLG 35 ESE MGW 15 N
DCA 15 S ILG 20 ENE ACY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N SRQ DAB.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AMPLIFIED NATURE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER 48
STATES WILL LESSEN SOMEWHAT ON TUESDAY AS ZONAL FLOW SPREADS EAST
ACROSS THE CNTRL U.S./MS VALLEY IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG UPPER LOW
LIFTING NEWD FROM THE OH VALLEY TO THE ERN GREAT LAKES TO SERN NY.
100KT MID LEVEL JET STREAK DEVELOPING WITHIN THE SERN QUADRANT OF
THE OH VALLEY UPPER LOW WILL SPREAD EAST OVER GA AND THE CAROLINAS
AND AID IN DRIVING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS. STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT WITHIN THE EXIT
REGION OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG AN INTENSE EAST COAST BAROCLINIC ZONE. MODELS ARE
IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SECONDARY LOW WILL TRACK NEWD
WELL SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY WHILE THE PRIMARY
OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW FILLS AND WEAKENS OVER SRN ONTARIO.

...S FL...
POLAR FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE EAST COAST LOW SWWD INTO NRN FL WILL
CONTINUE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CNTRL PENINSULA DURING THE DAY. A
PREFRONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY SUSTAIN A
BROKEN LINE OF STORMS ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF FL WITH THIS LINE
MOVING INTO MARGINAL BUT INCREASING INSTABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO
AROUND 70 WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 600-1200 J/KG
BUT RELATIVELY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL TEND TO LIMIT
UPDRAFT STRENGTH AND HAIL POTENTIAL. IN ADDITION...STRONG MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS FALLS AND MASS INFLOW WELL NORTH OF THE REGION SUGGEST THAT
DEEP LAYER CONVERGENCE ALONG THE OUTFLOW/FRONT WILL REMAIN WEAK.
NONETHELESS...COMBINATION OF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT A LOW PROBABILITY WIND HAZARD ACROSS THE
REGION PRIOR TO 28/00Z.

..CARBIN.. 01/26/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.

$$