SPC Day 2 Thunderstorm Outlook Issued 1730Z 20040128

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ZCZC SPCSWODY2 ALL
ACUS02 KWNS 281727
SPC AC 281727

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 AM CST WED JAN 28 2004

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S CRP 45 NNW NIR
30 E AUS 50 S TYR 45 WSW MLU MCB 35 SSW GPT.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN SRN STREAM BRANCH OF THE
POLAR WLYS WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE DESERT SW TODAY AND ACROSS NRN
MX TOWARD TX THURSDAY NIGHT.  GFS REMAINS SLOWER/DEEPER SOLUTION
AMONG MODELS AND IS PREFERRED GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF UPSTREAM RIDGING
PER WATER VAPOR LOOPS. THUS...SURFACE FEATURES WILL REMAIN
WEAK...WITH COASTAL TROUGH GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING VCNTY TX COAST
LATE IN THE PERIOD.

...SRN/SERN TX...
RETURN FLOW SHOULD INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM
TODAY AND THURSDAY.  MODIFICATION WILL TAKE A WHILE TO OCCUR GIVEN
PENETRATION OF CP AIR MASS DEEP INTO THE GULF...BUT PRIND UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S DEW POINTS SHOULD SPREAD ONTO THE TX COASTAL PLAIN BY
THURSDAY EVENING.  INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...LIMITING
INSOLATION ACROSS SRN/SERN TX. SURFACE BASED TSTM PROBABILITIES
WILL BE LOW GIVEN LACK OF INSTABILITY AND CAP BETWEEN 850-700 MB. 
HOWEVER...ELEVATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS TSTMS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY
NIGHT FROM SERN TX INTO SRN LA.  STRONGER TSTMS ARE APT TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE COASTAL TROUGH...BUT PROBABLY REMAIN OFFSHORE UNTIL DAY 3.
 SUFFICIENT ELEVATED CAPE WILL NOT BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT SEVERE
HAIL.

..RACY.. 01/28/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.

$$