SPC Day 2 Thunderstorm Outlook Issued 1730Z 20040129

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ZCZC SPCSWODY2 ALL
ACUS02 KWNS 291726
SPC AC 291726

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 AM CST THU JAN 29 2004

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 W MIA 30 S PBI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE BLI 20 WNW EAT
15 N PUW 35 WSW BTM 20 N IDA TWF 30 WNW 4LW 40 SSW OTH.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 7R4 10 WSW BTR 40 NW
GPT MOB 20 SW PNS.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE SPLIT UPPER FLOW REGIME IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.  THE
MIDLEVEL DISTURBANCE WITHIN SRN BRANCH OF THE POLAR WLYS NOW MOVING
ACROSS NRN MX WILL TRANSLATE INTO S TX EARLY FRIDAY...THEN INTO THE
WRN GULF BASIN BY EARLY SATURDAY.  UPSTREAM...IMPULSE OFF THE PAC NW
COAST WILL DIG SEWD TOWARD NRN CA TONIGHT...THEN ACROSS THE NRN GRT
BASIN ON FRIDAY AS RIDGING INCREASES OVER THE GULF OF AK.  AT THE
SURFACE...A LOW AND INVERTED TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE WRN
GULF BASIN AS THE MX SYSTEM HEADS EAST.  AN OLD FRONT SITUATED
ACROSS THE FL STRAITS WILL BECOME A WARM FRONT AND MOVE NWD INTO SRN
FL FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE PAC NW
DISTURBANCE...MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH THE NWRN STATES AND NRN GRT
BASIN REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

...SRN TX...
H5 THERMAL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS S TX ON FRIDAY.
LOWER 60S DEW POINTS ARE LIKELY TO LINGER ALONG THE COAST EARLY IN
THE DAY BENEATH THE STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES.  BUT...AS WEAK
CYCLOGENESIS COMMENCES ACROSS THE GULF WATERS LOW LEVEL DRYING WILL
TAKE PLACE AND SURFACE FLOW WILL BECOME DIFFLUENT OVER LAND...BOTH
HOSTILE TO SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION.

...SRN LA...
WEAK WARM/MOIST ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE DOWNSTREAM FROM THE
APPROACHING MX DISTURBANCE ON FRIDAY.  WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH
PERHAPS EMBEDDED TSTMS MAY OCCUR...PRIMARILY EARLY IN THE PERIOD
ACROSS THE COASTAL LA COUNTIES....BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE.

...S FL...
GFS/ETA SUGGEST THAT WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NWD INTO EXTREME SRN FL
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES.  WARM SECTOR LI/S
GO BELOW 0C FRIDAY NIGHT AND GIVEN INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT
WITHIN EXIT REGION OF SRN STREAM JETLET...TSTMS MAY DEVELOP.

...PAC NW/GRT BASIN...
POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR ISOLD
TSTMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

..RACY.. 01/29/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.

$$