SPC Day 2 Thunderstorm Outlook Issued 1730Z 20040130

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ZCZC SPCSWODY2 ALL
ACUS02 KWNS 301730
SPC AC 301730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2004

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E ICT 20 SE OJC 40
WSW JEF 35 S TBN 50 S HRO 35 W PGO 35 SSE OKC END 45 E ICT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PFN 45 NE MGR 25 ESE
SAV.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE COMPLEX DURING THE WEEKEND. 
MAIN BRANCH OF THE POLAR JET WILL AMPLIFY AS STRONG MIDLEVEL
TROUGH...NOW APPROACHING THE WEST COAST...DIGS SEWD INTO THE WRN
THIRD OF THE COUNTRY.  MEANWHILE...THE SRN STREAM WILL ALSO REMAIN
ACTIVE...WITH THE IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS S TX TODAY...TRANSLATING EWD
ACROSS THE GULF OF MX ON SATURDAY.  AT THE SURFACE...MAIN BAROCLINIC
ZONE WILL REMAIN ENERGETIC FROM THE CNTRL GULF OF MX INTO PARTS OF
FL THIS PERIOD.  

...CNTRL/SRN FL...
AS THE IMPULSE OVER S TX BEGINS TO MIGRATE EWD OVER THE GULF OF
MX...LOW/MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL BACK WITH WARM/MOIST ADVECTION
INCREASING ACROSS CNTRL/SRN FL TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. WARM FRONT
SHOULD MOVE NWD INTO AT LEAST SRN FL ON SATURDAY WITH MID 60S DEW
POINTS AS FAR NORTH AS CNTRL FL BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND 70S ADVECTING
NWD INTO SRN FL.  KINEMATIC FIELDS ARE QUITE STRONG WITH BOTH
DEEP/LOW LEVEL SHEAR CONDUCIVE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. 
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS...HOWEVER...ON THE MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY
GIVEN WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PCPN.  IF THE WARM SECTOR CAN
DESTABILIZE MORE THAN EXPECTED...THE RISK OF STRONGER TSTMS WITH
POSSIBLE DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES WILL BE GREATER AND LATER
OUTLOOKS MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES/SLGT
RISK.  BUT...ATTM...WILL MAINTAIN SUB-CATEGORICAL SEVERE
PROBABILITIES GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.

..RACY.. 01/30/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.

$$