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Apr 28, 2015 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Apr 28 17:28:11 UTC 2015 (Print Version | 20150428 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20150428 1730Z Day 2 KML)
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   SPC AC 281728

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1228 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2015

   VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER CNTRL/S FL...

   ...SUMMARY...
   MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY
   SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA
   ON WEDNESDAY MORNING TO AFTERNOON.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A DAMPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND
   SOUTHEAST WHILE A VIGOROUS NRN-STREAM TROUGH DROPS S OVER THE UPPER
   GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE MIDWEST. STALLED SURFACE FRONT SHOULD LIE
   ACROSS N FL WITH A WEAK CYCLONE TRACKING ALONG IT BEFORE PROGRESSING
   E AWAY FROM THE S ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN SWD
   ACCELERATION OF THE FRONT INTO CNTRL FL LATE IN THE PERIOD. IN THE
   NORTHWEST...THE AXIS OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD REACH THE COAST
   WED AFTERNOON AND THE NRN ROCKIES BY 12Z/THU. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
   COLD FRONT WILL REACH CNTRL MT BY AFTERNOON AND SHOULD APPROACH THE
   DAKOTAS BORDER THU MORNING.

   ...CNTRL/S FL...
   SCATTERED TSTMS MAY BE ONGOING OFF THE FL GULF COAST AT 12Z/WED
   AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX AND ALONG/S OF THE INLAND FRONT. SOME
   OF THIS ACTIVITY WOULD LIKELY DEVELOP INLAND DURING THE LATE
   MORNING/MIDDAY AS WEAK DIABATIC HEATING YIELDS MODEST BUOYANCY. WITH
   NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES...THE PRIMARY CONTRIBUTOR TO
   DEEP SHEAR WILL BE VIA CHANGES IN SPEED LARGELY WITHIN THE
   MID/UPPER-PORTION OF THE TROPOSPHERE. BUT LAPSE RATES AOA 3 KM AGL
   SHOULD BE POOR AROUND 5-6 DEG C/KM AS 500 MB TEMPERATURES HOLD NEAR
   -8 DEG C. THIS TYPE OF REGIME SUGGESTS THAT UPDRAFT
   ORGANIZATION/INTENSITY WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE
   HAIL AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN HAZARDS. THE WLY
   LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL EVENTUALLY YIELD DRYING IN THE AFTERNOON
   AND DIMINISHING CONVECTION BY EVENING.

   ...MT...
   ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD FORM IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
   EVENING OVER THE SW MTNS WITHIN A STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD
   OF THE COLD FRONT. BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...BUT
   SCANT BUOYANCY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW TSTMS EVOLVING NE OFF
   THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO WED NIGHT.

   ...IL/SRN WI...
   A NARROW PLUME OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP WED AFTERNOON
   WITH MID-LEVEL DCVA AHEAD OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   AND DIABATIC HEATING CONTRIBUTING TO STEEPENING LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES. BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH ONLY LOW TO MID
   40S SURFACE DEW POINTS...BUT MEAGER BUOYANCY SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED
   TSTMS.

   ..GRAMS.. 04/28/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

        
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Page last modified: April 28, 2015
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