Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

< Day 1 Outlook   Day 3 Outlook >
Oct 31, 2014 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Oct 31 17:25:05 UTC 2014 (Print Version | 20141031 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20141031 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Probabilistic
 Population  Cities  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 311725

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1225 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

   VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT
   BASIN AND ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES...AS WELL AS PARTS NORTHEAST SOUTH
   CAROLINA...CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND THE MID-ATLANTIC
   COAST.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL
   THROUGH DAY 2 ACROSS THE LOWER 48 STATES...AS A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
   EASTERN STATES MOVES TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY 12Z SUNDAY...WHILE
   A CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE SHIFTS SLOWLY EWD.  IN THE WEST..A SPLIT-FLOW
   REGIME IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH THE
   PACIFIC TROUGH...IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH...ADVANCING SLOWLY EASTWARD
   ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST.

   ...NORTHEAST SC/CENTRAL AND ERN NC TO COASTAL MID-ATLANTIC...
   A RATHER SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS EXPECTED
   FROM 12Z SATURDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NERN SC AND CENTRAL/ERN
   PORTIONS OF NC AS A DEEPENING...CLOSED LOW AND ATTENDANT STRONG
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE PARENT ERN U.S.
   LONGWAVE TROUGH.  THIS COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING/
   DESTABILIZATION AND FRONTOGENESIS WHILE A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS EWD
   FROM NERN SC SUGGESTS THE LIKELIHOOD FOR CONVECTION SATURDAY MORNING
   AND AFTERNOON.  COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES /-24 TO -26 C AT 500 MB/
   WILL RESULT IN STEEP LAPSE RATES FOR BUOYANCY /THOUGH WEAK/ TO
   BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR LOW-TOPPED TSTMS.  WEAK INSTABILITY /MUCAPE
   AOB 100 J/KG/ WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...THOUGH SMALL
   HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. 

   ...GREAT BASIN TO ROCKIES...
   STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE WRN U.S. TROUGH WILL
   SUPPORT AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED/ISOLATED TSTMS
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR WEST AND ROCKIES.  THE GREATEST
   CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD OCCUR AS FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO
   A STRONG LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ADVANCE FROM
   NV THROUGH UT TO THE NRN ROCKIES.  THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
   REMAINS MINIMAL DUE TO THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE CAPE.

   ..PETERS.. 10/31/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

        
Top/Latest Day 1 Outlook/Today's Outlooks/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: October 31, 2014
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities