SPC AC 021659
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1159 AM CDT THU JUL 02 2009
   
   VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH
   PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS AND MID-MO VALLEY...
   
   ...HIGH PLAINS/CNTRL PLAINS/MID-MO VALLEY...
   A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE NRN
   STATES FRIDAY AS SEVERAL SUBTLE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE EWD
   ACROSS THE REGION. AT THE SFC...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECAST
   ACROSS ERN MT SEWD INTO SWRN SD WITH AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE
   FROM ERN CO NNWWD THROUGH ERN WY INTO CNTRL AND ERN MT. SCATTERED
   THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE ALONG THIS AXIS OF INSTABILITY AND
   MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
   EARLY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR AT 00Z SHOW
   MOSTLY MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES DUE TO DIRECTIONAL TURNING
   WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGESTING SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL
   POTENTIAL WILL EXIST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A PERSISTENT ORGANIZED
   STORM COMPLEX SHOULD BE OVER ERN MT WHERE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
   FORECAST BY THE NAM/GFS MODELS AND VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD BE A BIT
   STRONGER PARTIALLY DUE TO A LOW-LEVEL JET FEATURE. IN ADDITION TO
   HAIL...WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IF A STORM CLUSTER
   CAN PERSIST INTO THE EVENING.
   
   FURTHER SOUTHEAST...ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ALONG
   THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY FRIDAY MORNING IN SRN SD AND NERN
   NEB. SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY
   IS FORECAST BY MIDDAY WHERE MODEL FORECASTS DEVELOP SCATTERED
   SFC-BASED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. AN INCREASE IN
   CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE
   POSSIBILITY OF AN MCS DEVELOPING ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET IN
   THE EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR AT 00Z SHOW
   MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES PARTIALLY DUE TO A
   MID-LEVEL JET PASSING THROUGH THE RIDGE. THIS COMBINED WITH MODERATE
   TO STRONG INSTABILITY AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY BE
   SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH A PERSISTENT HAIL THREAT
   INTO THE EVENING. BOWING LINE-SEGMENTS WILL BE JUST AS LIKELY
   ESPECIALLY IF AN MCS CAN ORGANIZE WITH THE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET.
   THIS MAY INCREASE THE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL WITH TIME FRIDAY
   EVENING.
   
   ...NEW ENGLAND/ERN NY...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE NERN STATES
   FRIDAY WITH A WELL-DEVELOPED SFC TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS WRN PARTS OF
   NEW ENGLAND. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THIS SFC TROUGH BY
   MIDDAY WITH THE STORMS MOVING EWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND DURING THE MID
   TO LATE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 21Z ALONG THE SFC TROUGH
   SHOW MUCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES. IN SPITE OF THE WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR...THIS THERMODYNAMIC
   PROFILE MAY SUPPORT A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS NEAR PEAK HEATING.
   
   ...FLORIDA...
   A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE IN PLACE FRIDAY ACROSS
   SRN GA. SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY
   SHOULD DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
   INITIATING ON SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA.
   ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS FORECAST TO BE QUITE
   WEEK...STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH A VERY MOIST
   BOUNDARY LAYER MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH
   THE STRONGER CELLS.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 07/02/2009
   
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