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Oct 30, 2014 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Oct 30 17:27:55 UTC 2014 (Print Version | 20141030 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20141030 1730Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 301727

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1227 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

   VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE FOUR
   CORNERS AND PACIFIC COAST STATES...ALONG WITH SOUTH
   TEXAS...SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...THE CAROLINAS...AND GREAT LAKES.

   ...DISCUSSION...
   MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN
   IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH A DEEP TROUGH IN THE EASTERN U.S. WHILE A
   DEEP PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN STATES. A RIDGE WILL
   SHIFT EASTWARD FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE GREAT PLAINS. A POTENT
   SHORTWAVE IMPULSE REMAINS FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER
   GREAT LAKES TO EASTERN GA/SC AREA BY 12Z/SATURDAY. COLD MID-LEVEL
   TEMPERATURES ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM MAY SUPPORT SPORADIC LIGHTNING
   STRIKES AMIDST MINIMAL BUOYANCY OVER PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND
   THE CAROLINAS.  UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION SHOULD INCREASE TOWARD 12Z
   SATURDAY ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS OF NERN SC AND SRN NC...BUT MODEL
   DIFFERENCES IN THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION PRECLUDE THE INCLUSION
   OF THESE PORTIONS OF SC/NC INTO THE GENERAL TSTM AREA AT THIS TIME. 

   A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BUILD INTO THE UPPER
   MIDWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE POWERFUL SHORTWAVE IMPULSE...WITH THE
   ATTENDANT ANTICYCLONE/COLD CP AIR MASS EXPANDING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
   TO THE GULF COAST STATES. DEEP SOUTH TX AND FAR SOUTHEAST FL WILL
   HAVE EARLY-PERIOD TSTM POTENTIAL AHEAD OF THIS INTRUSION.

   IN THE WEST...A PLUME OF RICHER 700-MB DEW POINTS WILL BE DRAWN
   NORTH FROM CHIHUAHUA/SONORA DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
   ENTERING THE PACIFIC COAST STATES. MEAGER BUOYANCY WITH STEEP
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW STORMS. IN CLOSER
   PROXIMITY TO THE TROUGH...WEAK BUOYANCY MIGHT RESULT IN SPORADIC
   LIGHTNING STRIKES WITHIN PREDOMINANT SHOWERY CONVECTION. FAST
   MID-LEVEL FLOW AND COOL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES COULD AID IN SMALL
   HAIL WITHIN THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS.

   ..PETERS.. 10/30/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

        
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Page last modified: October 30, 2014
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