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Sep 20, 2014 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Sep 20 05:50:03 UTC 2014 (Print Version | 20140920 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20140920 0600Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 200550

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1250 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

   VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...OHIO VALLEY...AND
   NORTHEAST STATES ON SUNDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
   EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST...THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...AND OVER
   FLORIDA.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   LARGE-SCALE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR OVER THE
   GREAT LAKES REGION/NORTHEAST STATES FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
   AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
   THE LOWER OH VALLEY/MIDDLE MS VALLEY TO THE APPALACHIANS AND
   MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST SEABOARD BY EARLY MONDAY. IN THE WESTERN
   CONUS...A CLOSED UPPER LOW CURRENTLY NEAR COASTAL SOUTHERN CA WILL
   BECOME MORE NORTHEASTWARD-PROGRESSIVE ON SUNDAY AS IT CROSSES THE
   GREAT BASIN.

   ...UPPER OH VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO NY...
   AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STEADY HEIGHT FALLS AND
   STRONG CYCLONIC MID/UPPER-LEVEL WINDS IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN
   ACCELERATING COLD FRONT AND A GRADUALLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER
   THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. MODEST DESTABILIZATION...CHARACTERIZED BY
   STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 1000
   J/KG...IS EXPECTED ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. FORCED
   ASCENT AND RELATIVELY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 45+ KT SHOULD
   CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF NARROW BANDS AND LINES OF
   FASTER-MOVING CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SOME OF THESE
   STORMS COULD PRODUCE SCATTERED STRONGER WIND GUSTS...MAINLY ACROSS
   PARTS OF NY/PA/WV/FAR EASTERN OH WHERE THE MOST FAVORABLE
   COLLOCATION OF FORCING/SHEAR/WEAK INSTABILITY IS ANTICIPATED.

   ...GREAT BASIN...
   IN ASSOCIATION WITH A NORTHEAST-ADVANCING UPPER LOW...LARGE-SCALE
   ASCENT AND A MODERATELY STRONG MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX OF 30-35 KT WILL
   OVERSPREAD MUCH OF NV/UT AND NORTHERN AZ SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DIURNALLY
   MAXIMIZED HEATING AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 30 KT SHOULD
   CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT AND SUSTENANCE OF HIGH-BASED
   STORMS...POTENTIALLY INCLUDING A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY
   SEVERE HAIL AND/OR GUSTY DOWNDRAFT WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
   EVENING.

   ..GUYER.. 09/20/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

        
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Page last modified: September 20, 2014
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