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Apr 24, 2014 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Apr 24 17:27:48 UTC 2014 (Print Version | 20140424 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20140424 1730Z Day 2 KML)
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   SPC AC 241725

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1225 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

   VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN VA AND
   ERN NC...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
   DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND INTO
   EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...AND POSSIBLY INTO NORTHERN SOUTH
   CAROLINA...WHERE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST TO OCCUR DAY
   2...AS AN UPPER TROUGH JUST OFF THE W COAST AT THE START OF THE
   PERIOD DIGS/EXPANDS SEWD INTO THE WRN U.S. WITH TIME.  AS THIS
   OCCURS...A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY AS IT SHIFTS INTO
   THE CENTRAL U.S./PLAINS REGION.  FINALLY...A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH/VORT
   MAX WILL SHIFT FROM THE LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO
   THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AFTER DARK.  

   AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WRN U.S./GREAT BASIN
   AHEAD OF THE DIGGING UPPER SYSTEM...WHILE A MUCH WEAKER FRONT
   CROSSES THE APPALACHIANS DURING THE AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE
   OVERNIGHT.

   ...SERN VA SWD ACROSS THE ERN NC VICINITY...
   AFTERNOON HEATING OF A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
   CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING CAPE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS ERN NC AND
   VICINITY...AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER
   VORT MAX.  AS THIS OCCURS...A DIURNAL INCREASE IN AFTERNOON
   CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/INTENSITY IS EXPECTED...WITH UPDRAFT
   ORGANIZATION AIDED BY AMPLE SHEAR ON ACCOUNT OF 40 TO 50 KT WLYS AT
   MID-LEVELS SPREADING ACROSS THIS REGION ON THE SRN FRINGE OF THE
   UPPER SYSTEM.  ALONG WITH RISK FOR HAIL WITH STRONGER
   CELLS...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE -- PARTICULARLY
   IF SOME UPSCALE GROWTH INTO SMALL LINES/CLUSTERS CAN OCCUR -- AS
   APPEARS POSSIBLE ATTM.  THE SEVERE RISK WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE
   EVENING...AS THE AIRMASS GRADUALLY STABILIZES AND CONVECTION MOVES
   OFFSHORE.

   ..GOSS.. 04/24/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

        
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Page last modified: April 24, 2014
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