Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

< Day 1 Outlook   Day 3 Outlook >
May 24, 2016 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue May 24 05:52:00 UTC 2016 (Print Version | 20160524 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20160524 0600Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Probabilistic
 Population  Cities  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 240552

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1252 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

   VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND
   NRN PLAINS...LOWER TO MID MO VALLEY AND UPPER MS VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT
   PLAINS...ARKLATEX AND MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY OUTSIDE OF THE SLIGHT
   RISK AREA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...WIND
   DAMAGE AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
   AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MISSOURI
   VALLEY NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
   VALLEY. MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
   HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EXTENDING
   NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ARKLATEX AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

   ...CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS/LOWER TO MID MO VALLEY/UPPER MS VALLEY...
   SOUTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
   CNTRL U.S. AS A COUPLE OF SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE NEWD THROUGH
   THE FLOW. AT THE SFC...A LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE CNTRL
   PLAINS WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD FROM THE LOW. A WARM FRONT MAY
   EXTEND EWD FROM THE SFC LOW WITH THIS FEATURE MOVING NWD ACROSS THE
   UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE DAY. THE WARM FRONT MAY BE A FOCUS FOR
   SFC-BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM ERN NEB
   ACROSS IA AND NWD INTO SE SD AND SRN MN. OTHER MORE ISOLATED
   THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE IN CNTRL NEB EXTENDING
   SWD INTO CNTRL KS.

   CONCERNING THE SEVERE THREAT FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING...THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT...SHOWING
   A QUALITY MOIST SECTOR FROM ERN KS AND MO NWD INTO ERN NEB AND IA
   WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 F. IN
   RESPONSE...MODERATE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE BY MID TO
   LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF THE WARM SECTOR. MARGINALLY SEVERE
   STORMS MAY DEVELOP ON THE ERN EDGE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
   ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MS
   VALLEY. FURTHER WEST INTO THE MID MO VALLEY NEAR THE INSTABILITY
   AXIS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 00Z/THU SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR IN THE 35 TO
   45 KT RANGE OWING TO DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOW-LEVELS AND SPEED
   SHEAR IN THE MID-LEVELS. THIS ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE
   RATES SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH ISOLATED
   LARGE HAIL AND A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
   LARGE HAIL MAY BE WITH CELLS THAT DEVELOP NEAR THE DRYLINE WHERE
   LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE THE GREATEST. STORMS THAT
   DEVELOP EWD ALONG THE WARM FRONT MAY ALSO ROTATE AND CONTAIN A
   THREAT FOR HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. A TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO
   BE POSSIBLE WITH CELLS THAT CAN INTERACT WITH THE BOUNDARY
   ESPECIALLY AS LOW-LEVEL STRENGTHENS DURING THE EARLY EVENING.

   ...SRN PLAINS/ARKLATEX/MID MS VALLEY...
   WEST TO SOUTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY FROM THE
   SRN PLAINS INTO THE ARKLATEX AND MID MS VALLEY. AT THE SFC...A
   DRYLINE IS FORECAST FROM WRN OK SWD INTO WCNTRL TX WITH A BROAD WARM
   SECTOR EXTENDING FROM THE DRYLINE EWD TO THE MS VALLEY. LARGE-SCALE
   ASCENT IS FORECAST TO BE WEAK ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WHICH WILL KEEP
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ISOLATED IN MOST AREAS. ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH PRE-EXISTING BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE WARM
   SECTOR SHOULD DETERMINE WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN DEVELOP.
   MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE WARM
   SECTOR. FOR THIS REASON...ANY CELL THAT CAN BECOME ESTABLISHED IN
   SPITE OF WEAK FORCING...MAY CONTAIN A POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND STRONG
   WIND GUSTS.

   ..BROYLES.. 05/24/2016

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

        
Top/Latest Day 1 Outlook/Today's Outlooks/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: May 24, 2016
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities