SPC AC 020512
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1212 AM CDT THU SEP 02 2010
   
   VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   HURRICANE EARL STILL APPEARS LIKELY TO ACCELERATE NORTH
   NORTHEASTWARD FRIDAY...JUST EAST OF THE MAJORITY OF MIDDLE AND
   NORTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS...TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. 
   THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AS AN UPPER TROUGH WITHIN THE STRONGER
   WESTERLIES AMPLIFIES UPSTREAM...FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE
   GREAT LAKES AND APPALACHIANS.  THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL BE
   ACCOMPANIED BY A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT...WHICH IS FORECAST TO SURGE
   SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND GULF COAST
   STATES BY 12Z SATURDAY.
   
   ACROSS THE WEST...SUBTROPICAL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
   GENERALLY STRONG ACROSS MUCH OF CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU
   INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.  BUT AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING TO THE
   NORTH MAY BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST OF THE NORTHERN
   ROCKIES...AS ANOTHER VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH ADVANCES INTO
   BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
   
   ...LOWER GREAT LAKES SWWD THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF COAST...
   MODELS SUGGEST THAT A BAND OF STRONGER FORCING MAY LINGER INTO EARLY
   FRIDAY...SOUTH OF SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO EASTERN OHIO... BEFORE
   ADVANCING EASTWARD AND TENDING TO WEAKEN SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL
   BORDER...ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA BY EARLY
   AFTERNOON.  THIS IS WHERE DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY MEAN FLOW FIELDS
   AND SHEAR MAY ALSO REMAIN MODESTLY STRONG...BUT IT IS STILL NOT
   CLEAR THAT SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR TO SUPPORT AN
   APPRECIABLE RISK FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
   
   OTHERWISE...AS THE FRONT ADVANCES EASTWARD OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN
   UPPER TROUGH...AND IN THE WAKE OF EARL...WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE AND LIFT...COUPLED WITH LIMITED DESTABILIZATION DUE TO
   WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...PROBABLY WILL MINIMIZE CONVECTIVE
   POTENTIAL.  HOWEVER...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE...MOSTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON...WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS
   SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST
   TEXAS.
   
   ...SOUTHERN PLATEAU/ROCKIES...
   A RETURN OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE...COUPLED WITH STRONG SURFACE
   HEATING...MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR WIDELY
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
   
   ...NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...
   STRONG PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE HEATING...COUPLED WITH INCREASING LIFT
   AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT
   DESTABILIZATION FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS FROM NEAR
   THE OREGON CASCADES INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN IDAHO AND WESTERN
   MONTANA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
   
   ..KERR.. 09/02/2010
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z