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Jul 28, 2014 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Jul 28 17:27:27 UTC 2014 (Print Version | 20140728 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20140728 1730Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 281727

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1227 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

   VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
   SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
   ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS
   OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES STATES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED FROM NEAR HUDSON BAY
   SWD INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL BE
   CENTERED ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER OVER THE SOUTHWEST WITH A
   WEAK RIDGE EMANATING TOWARD THE CANADIAN ROCKIES.
   CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED IMPULSES SHOULD DRIFT ACROSS PARTS OF THE WEST
   AND HIGH PLAINS.

   ...S-CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
   WITH A LEE SURFACE TROUGH...LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND OROGRAPHIC
   FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL YIELD SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS DURING
   THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S SURFACE DEW
   POINTS SHOULD YIELD WEAK BUOYANCY...BUT MID/HIGH-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   WILL BE MODEST. ALTHOUGH FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BE WEAK ACROSS MOST OF
   THE HIGH PLAINS...GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT THAT A
   CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED IMPULSE MAY AID IN A BELT OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL
   WLYS /CENTERED OVER THE RATON MESA/. GRADUAL EWD-MOVING CLUSTERS MAY
   POSE A RISK FOR A COUPLE MARGINAL WIND/HAIL EVENTS.

   ...WRN GREAT LAKES...
   A BELT OF 30-35 KT N/NWLYS SHOULD BE JUXTAPOSED WITH -16 TO -18 DEG
   C TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB. SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH INTO THE
   LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AND BE SUFFICIENT FOR GENERATING WEAK BUOYANCY
   WITH MLCAPE NEAR 500 J/KG. WITH MINIMAL MLCIN...SCATTERED LOW-TOPPED
   CONVECTION SHOULD FORM BY LATE AFTERNOON. OVERALL SETUP WILL BE
   CONDUCIVE TO GENERALLY SMALL HAIL...BUT A COUPLE SHORT-LIVED
   UPDRAFTS MIGHT PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

   ..GRAMS.. 07/28/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

        
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Page last modified: July 28, 2014
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