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Jul 30, 2016 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Jul 30 04:31:52 UTC 2016 (Print Version | 20160730 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20160730 0600Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 300431

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1131 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

   VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
   PLAINS AND LOWER MO VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
   DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.  STRONG STORMS
   MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER
   MISSOURI VALLEY.

   ...NRN PLAINS...

   BC SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS INTO SK BY THE END OF
   THE PERIOD AS 50-60KT 500MB SPEED MAX TRANSLATES INTO SERN SK BY
   01/12Z.  HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE LIMITED SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL
   BORDER AND APPARENT LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD REMAIN FOCUSED NORTH
   OF THE MRGL RISK SUNDAY.  EVEN SO...TRAILING SFC FRONT SHOULD
   ADVANCE INTO NERN MT BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH A PRONOUNCED LEE
   TROUGH/DRY LINE EXPECTED TO EXTEND ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER INTO THE
   BLACK HILLS.  THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD FOCUS POTENTIAL STRONG
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AFTER 22Z.  LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
   SCT CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE ALONG THE N-S BOUNDARY ACROSS THE WRN
   DAKOTAS BY EARLY EVENING WHERE CLOUD BASES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
   3KM DUE TO STRONG SFC HEATING.  GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL
   COULD ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY AS IT PROPAGATES INTO CNTRL ND DURING
   THE LATE EVENING.

   ...CENTRAL PLAINS/LOWER MO VALLEY...

   STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS/LOWER MO VALLEY IS
   SOMEWHAT CONDITIONAL DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD.  HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE
   LOW SEVERE PROBS ACROSS THIS REGION DUE TO THE EXPECTED
   STRENGTHENING LLJ IMPINGING ON A WEAK BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD BE DRAPED
   ALONG THE NEB/KS BORDER INTO NRN MO.  LATEST NAM IS THE MOST
   AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING AN MCS-TYPE COMPLEX OF STORMS ALONG/NORTH
   OF THIS WIND SHIFT...LIKELY DUE TO ITS MORE PRONOUNCED LLJ THAN THE
   GFS.  IF DAY1 CONVECTION DOES NOT OVERTURN THE AIR MASS ACROSS THIS
   REGION THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT WARM ADVECTION MAY GENERATE STORMS
   CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND/HAIL.

   ...ELSEWHERE...

   ELY MID-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ALONG THE U.S./MEXICAN
   BORDER DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD.  WHILE TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE
   HIGHER TERRAIN OF SWRN NM/SERN AZ DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...THIS
   ACTIVITY MAY NOT BE AS EFFICIENT IN GENERATING COLD POOL-DRIVEN
   OUTFLOW AS TSTM ACTIVITY FRIDAY.  ALTHOUGH GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY
   THE STRONGEST STORMS...WILL NOT INTRODUCE SEVERE PROBS AS THIS
   ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LESS ORGANIZED.

   ..DARROW.. 07/30/2016

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

        
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Page last modified: July 30, 2016
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