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Jul 4, 2015 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Jul 4 04:56:53 UTC 2015 (Print Version | 20150704 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20150704 0600Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 040456

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1156 PM CDT FRI JUL 03 2015

   VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHERN AND
   EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NORTH
   DAKOTA/WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SURROUNDING AREAS OF THE
   NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE WIND AND HAIL ARE EXPECTED
   SUNDAY ACROSS PARTS OF NEBRASKA...SOUTH DAKOTA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS
   OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MID/UPPER SUBTROPICAL RIDGING APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN AT LEAST
   SOMEWHAT SUPPRESSED DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW
   ALOFT NOW PRESENT ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
   MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO THE VICINITY OF A REMNANT WEAK
   CIRCULATION OVER THE LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND
   CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.  STRONGER MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES ARE
   EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
   U.S...NORTHWARD...WITH SIGNIFICANT EMBEDDED POSITIVELY TILTED
   TROUGHING FORECAST TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CANADIAN
   PROVINCES...AND TO THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN U.S. ROCKIES.

   THERE HAS BEEN CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AMONG THE MODELS AND THEIR
   RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE OUTPUT CONCERNING LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC
   DEVELOPMENTS RELATED TO THIS LATTER FEATURE.  EMBEDDED SMALLER SCALE
   PERTURBATIONS MAY GROW INCREASINGLY OUT OF PHASE...WITH PERHAPS THE
   MAIN IMPULSE ACCELERATING TOWARD THE HUDSON/JAMES BAY REGION...WHILE
   A LESSER TRAILING IMPULSE DIGS ALONG THE MONTANA/ NORTH DAKOTA
   INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA.

   AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT STILL APPEARS LIKELY TO ADVANCE
   SOUTHWARD TO THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND
   EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...INTO PORTIONS OF THE UPPER
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY BY 12Z MONDAY.  MODELS
   CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT STRONG DESTABILIZATION WILL TAKE PLACE
   WITHIN A CORRIDOR AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO
   PROVIDE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE MOST SUBSTANTIVE CONVECTIVE
   POTENTIAL ACROSS THE U.S. SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. 
   THIS WILL INCLUDE THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAPABLE OF
   PRODUCING SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.

   ...NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
   MODELS REMAIN SUGGESTIVE THAT AN INITIAL MID/UPPER JET STREAK MAY
   PROGRESS EAST MOSTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER... 
   WHILE A TRAILING...AND PERHAPS STRENGTHENING...SPEED MAXIMUM LAGS TO
   THE WEST OF THE COLD FRONT TO THE SOUTH.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR AHEAD OF
   THE COLD FRONT OVER THE U.S. MAY NOT BECOME PARTICULARLY STRONG. 
   HOWEVER...STEEPENING OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
   NORTHEASTWARD ADVECTION OF ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR... COUPLED WITH
   PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING...ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE
   TO LARGE MIXED LAYER CAPE /2000-3000+ J PER KG/ BY LATE SUNDAY
   AFTERNOON.  

   THE STRENGTH OF MID-LEVEL INHIBITION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON REMAINS
   UNCLEAR...BUT GUIDANCE GENERALLY SUGGESTS THAT LARGE-SCALE FORCING
   FOR ASCENT WILL BECOME SUFFICIENT TO AT LEAST CONTRIBUTE TO THE
   INITIATION OF STORMS BY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...IF NOT BEFORE. 
   PERHAPS AIDED BY THE INFLUENCE OF ANOTHER MORE SUBTLE MID/UPPER
   IMPULSE...MIGRATING AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
   RIDGING...STRONGEST UPPER DIVERGENCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY FORECAST
   TO OVERSPREAD PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEBRASKA/SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
   SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE 06/00-06Z TIME FRAME.  

   GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE
   WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOST VIGOROUS STORMS.  ACTIVITY
   COULD GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO A MORE SUBSTANTIVE CLUSTER OF
   STORMS DURING THE EVENING...AIDED BY FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED
   WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION.

   ..KERR.. 07/04/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

        
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