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Jul 25, 2014 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Jul 25 17:22:36 UTC 2014 (Print Version | 20140725 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20140725 1730Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 251722

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1222 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

   VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MS
   VALELY...SRN GREAT LAKES AND NRN OH VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR
   LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
   GREAT LAKES FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING. 
   MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
   MUCH OF KANSAS INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND IN PENNSYLVANIA...SOUTHERN
   NEW YORK AND NEW JERSEY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

   ...MID MS VALLEY/NRN OH VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES...
   WEST TO NORTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE SATURDAY FROM THE
   UPPER MS VALLEY EWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY. AT THE
   SFC...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES
   REGION AND MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY BY AFTERNOON. A LARGE WARM SECTOR
   SHOULD EXIST FROM THE MID-MO VALLEY EWD INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES
   WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S F. AS A
   RESULT...MODEL FORECASTS DEVELOP MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY
   ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA DURING THE DAY WITH STORMS INITIATING
   AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE MID-MO VALLEY AROUND MIDDAY. CONVECTIVE
   COVERAGE IS FORECAST TO EXPAND EWD ACROSS SRN IA...NRN MO...IL AND
   IND DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A MCS DEVELOPS ALONG THE INSTABILITY
   AXIS. A PERSISTENT AND ORGANIZED LINE-SEGMENT MAY DEVELOP AND MOVE
   EWD ACROSS THE NRN OH VALLEY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
   EVENING.

   NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS FOR DAVENPORT IA
   AND INDIANAPOLIS IND AT 21Z/SAT SHOW IMPRESSIVE THERMODYNAMICS WITH
   MLCAPE ABOVE 2500 J/KG AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES. IN ADDITION...THE
   WIND PROFILE HAS DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BELOW 850 MB WITH SUBSTANTIAL
   SPEED SHEAR IN THE MID-LEVELS RESULTING IN 40 TO 50 KT OF 0-6 KM
   SHEAR. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A SEVERE PRODUCING
   MCS WITH WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE. IF THE LOWER TO MID 70S F
   DEWPOINTS MATERIALIZE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA BY
   SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK ACROSS PARTS
   OF THE MID MS VALLEY AND NRN OH VALLEY MAY BE NECESSARY. MODEL
   SOLUTIONS STILL DIFFER MARKEDLY ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THE SEVERE
   THREAT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND UNCERTAINTY IS STILL SIGNIFICANT
   CONCERNING THE DAY 2 FORECAST.

   ...KS/SRN NEB...
   WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CNTRL AND NRN
   PLAINS SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS.
   AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
   F RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON.
   THUNDERSTORM INITIATION APPEARS PROBABLE ALONG THE FRONT BY
   MID-AFTERNOON FROM SRN NEB SWD ACROSS MUCH OF KS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   IN CNTRL AND WRN KS SHOW MLCAPE ABOVE 2000 J/KG WITH ABOUT 30 KT OF
   0-6 KM SHEAR. THIS COMBINED WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND HIGH
   TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS
   ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH BASED STORMS.

   ...SRN NY/PA/NJ...
   A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE CNTRL AND
   NRN APPALACHIAN MTNS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. AT THE SFC...WINDS
   WILL BE SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN SEABOARD WHERE A
   CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE. SFC DEWPOINTS IN
   THE MID TO UPPER 60S F SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE
   INSTABILITY FROM VA EXTENDING NWD INTO CNTRL AND ERN PA. ALTHOUGH
   SUBSIDENCE MAY EXIST JUST BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SATURDAY
   AFTERNOON...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ABLE TO INITIATE ACROSS
   PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS AS SFC TEMPS
   PEAK IN THE AFTERNOON. THE MODERATE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STEEP
   LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BE ENOUGH FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND
   GUSTS.

   ..BROYLES.. 07/25/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

        
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Page last modified: July 25, 2014
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