Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

< Day 1 Outlook   Day 3 Outlook >
Oct 2, 2014 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Oct 2 04:21:37 UTC 2014 (Print Version | 20141002 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20141002 0600Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Probabilistic
 Population  Cities  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 020421

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1121 PM CDT WED OCT 01 2014

   VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD
   FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE GULF COAST FRIDAY.  LIGHTNING WILL
   BE MORE COMMON WITH CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

   ...GREAT LAKES TO ERN GULF COAST...

   VERY STRONG MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
   THE MIDWEST DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY2 PERIOD AS INTENSE
   MID-LEVEL JET DIGS INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY BY 04/06Z.  SECONDARY
   JET CORE AND ASSOCIATED UVV WILL LIKELY LAG THE FRONT MUCH OF THE
   PERIOD AND CONVECTION THAT EVOLVES ALONG THE WIND SHIFT WILL DO SO
   WITHIN MODEST SHEAR BUT LIMITED BUOYANCY.  CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
   ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AN
   EXTENSION FROM LATE DAY1 TSTM ACTIVITY THAT EVOLVES OVER THE MS
   VALLEY.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MIGRATE EWD WITHIN POOR LAPSE RATE
   ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MUCAPE GENERALLY ON THE ORDER OF 500
   J/KG.  WHILE GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY FRONTAL SQUALL
   LINE...FORECAST INSTABILITY APPEARS TOO WEAK TO WARRANT MEANINGFUL
   RISK OF ORGANIZED SEVERE WIND.

   ..DARROW.. 10/02/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

        
Top/Latest Day 1 Outlook/Today's Outlooks/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: October 02, 2014
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities