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Mar 31, 2015 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Mar 31 05:59:12 UTC 2015 (Print Version | 20150331 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20150331 0600Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 310559

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1259 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

   VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS FAR SERN SD/FAR SRN
   MN/WRN AND CENTRAL IA/ERN NEB/NRN AND CENTRAL KS/NWRN MO...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGER PORTION OF THE
   UPPER MS/MID MO VALLEYS AND INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL
   AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE
   CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   WHILE A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IN THE SRN STREAM IS
   PROGGED TO CROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...MOVING
   QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION THROUGH EARLY THU. 
   MEANWHILE...A MORE AMPLIFIED NRN STREAM IS PROGGED ACROSS THE NRN
   2/3 OF THE CONUS...WITH ONE TROUGH VACATING THE ERN U.S. WITH TIME
   AND A SECOND DIGGING ESEWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND SPREADING INTO THE
   N CENTRAL U.S. LATER IN THE PERIOD.  

   AT THE SURFACE...AN OCCLUDED LOW IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE
   CANADIAN PRAIRIE...WITH A TRAILING OCCLUDED/COLD FRONT TO ADVANCE
   EWD/SWD ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND A WARM FRONT TO SHIFT ENEWD ACROSS
   THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY.  MEANWHILE...A WEAK LEE LOW IS PROGGED OVER
   WRN KS ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON -- WHILE A DRYLINE MIXES
   EWD ACROSS WRN KS/WRN OK AND THE TX PANHANDLE/S PLAINS REGION.  THIS
   COLD FRONT/DRYLINE AND ASSOCIATED UPPER SYSTEM WILL FOCUS THE
   PRIMARY AREA OF STORMS/SEVERE RISK THIS PERIOD.

   ...SRN MN/IA ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY INTO CENTRAL KS...
   SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD
   FRONT WILL ADVECT A HIGHER THETA-E AIRMASS NWD THROUGH THE
   DAY...WITH DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING COMBINING WITH THE ADVECTING
   MOISTURE TO YIELD A WARM SECTOR FEATURING PRIMARILY 50S DEWPOINTS AS
   FAR N AS ERN NEB/IA/SRN MN.  STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT WITHIN AN
   ELEVATED MIXED LAYER COMBINED WITH THE ONGOING HEATING/MOISTENING
   WILL YIELD MODERATE CAPE /1500 TO 2500 J/KG/ -- SUPPORTING STORM
   DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM SRN MN
   SWWD INTO NRN KS.

   WHILE AMPLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTS THAT INITIAL STORM MODE SHOULD
   BE SUPERCELLULAR...EXPECT UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A MAINLY LINEAR MODE
   TO OCCUR FAIRLY RAPIDLY.  THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL IS ANTICIPATED WITH
   THE STRONGER CELLS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
   INCREASING WITH TIME AS LINEAR MODE EVOLVES INTO THE EARLY EVENING. 
   AFTER SUNSET AS THE LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS STABILIZES...EXPECT SEVERE
   THREAT TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH...THOUGH WIDESPREAD STORMS -- AIDED BY
   A DEVELOPING SSWLY LOW-LEVEL JET -- WILL LIKELY PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS
   THEY SPREAD SEWD ACROSS IA /NWRN MO.

   MEANWHILE FARTHER S...WEAKER LARGE-SCALE UVV AND A WEAK CAP SHOULD
   HINDER STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE ADVANCING DRYLINE ACROSS WRN OK
   AND THE TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK AREA.  A COUPLE OF CELLS MAY EVENTUALLY
   EVOLVE...THOUGH RELATIVELY MODEST SHEAR SUGGESTS LIMITED SEVERE
   POTENTIAL.  THIS LIMITED RISK AND LIKELIHOOD FOR SPARSE STORM
   COVERAGE WARRANTS MAINTAINING ONLY 5% SEVERE RISK ATTM.

   ..GOSS.. 03/31/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

        
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