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May 25, 2015 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon May 25 06:00:43 UTC 2015 (Print Version | 20150525 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20150525 0600Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 250600

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0100 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

   VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE LOWER/MIDDLE MS
   VALLEY AND TN/OH VALLEYS...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF TX TO THE
   NORTHEAST STATES/APPALACHIANS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
   MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
   MIDWEST ON TUESDAY. OTHER POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
   OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS.

   ...LOWER/MIDDLE MS VALLEY TO OH/TN VALLEYS...
   EARLY DAY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER
   POTENTIALLY RELATED TO A WEAKENING MCS WILL LIKELY BE A FACTOR
   ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH REGION AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER/MIDDLE MS
   RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY MORNING. WHILE CONSIDERABLE SPATIAL/RISK
   MAGNITUDE UNCERTAINTIES EXIST...ESPECIALLY NORTHWARD INTO THE OH
   VALLEY/MIDWEST WHERE BUOYANCY WILL BE WEAKER...DIURNAL
   DESTABILIZATION AND RELATED SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO BE
   FOCUSED TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED EARLY DAY
   ACTIVITY.

   WHILE GUIDANCE VARIABILITY REMAINS....A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND RELATED
   MID/UPPER JET WILL GENERALLY SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE
   MIDWEST DURING THE PERIOD WITH AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS AHEAD
   OF THE COLD FRONT. AS STORMS INCREASE/INTENSIFY INTO THE
   AFTERNOON...AT LEAST WEAK TO MODERATE BUOYANCY AND A RELATIVELY
   STRONG WIND FIELD /PARTICULARLY TN VALLEY NORTHWARD/ COULD SUPPORT
   EAST/NORTHEASTWARD-MOVING ORGANIZED STORM MODES WITH DAMAGING WINDS
   AND POSSIBLY SOME HAIL AND A TORNADO OR TWO.

   ...SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS TO OZARKS...
   WHILE OVERALL LARGE-SCALE FORCING WILL BE WEAK UNDER THE INFLUENCE
   OF RISING UPPER HEIGHTS...A PASSING/WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND AN
   UNSTABLE AIR MASS IMPLIES AT LEAST A CONDITIONAL SEVERE RISK ACROSS
   PARTS OF THE REGION PARTICULARLY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
   NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL RETURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE PERIOD AND
   A MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE IN
   PLACE BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING TO THE EAST OF A DRYLINE AND
   NEAR/SOUTHEAST OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
   PLAINS/LOWER MO VALLEY. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN SPATIAL DETAILS ARE
   NOT HIGH /OUTLOOK ADJUSTMENTS CAN BE EXPECTED/...AT LEAST ISOLATED
   SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL/WIND SHOULD DEVELOP NEAR THE DRYLINE
   ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITHIN A VERY UNSTABLE/MODEST VERTICAL
   SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. STORMS COULD GROW UPSCALE INTO A MCS TUESDAY
   NIGHT AND/OR OTHERWISE INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS AND
   TOWARD THE OZARKS VICINITY WITH AID OF INCREASING WARM ADVECTION.

   ..GUYER.. 05/25/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

        
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