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Mar 29, 2015 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Mar 29 17:01:34 UTC 2015 (Print Version | 20150329 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20150329 1730Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 291701

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1201 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

   VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SRN MS...AL...AND THE
   WRN FL PANHANDLE...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AS
   WELL AS ACROSS NEW MEXICO. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL OVER
   SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING EWD TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH UPPER
   RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE WRN STATES. IN BETWEEN...A NWLY FLOW REGIME
   WILL EXIST FROM THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE GULF COAST STATES. 

   WITH A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS...SOME LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTURE RETURN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO NWD INTO
   THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY...WITH LOWER 60S F DEWPOINTS FROM TX
   TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST. A VERY WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL FORM
   DURING THE DAY ACROSS LA/SRN MS/SRN AL...AND MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
   A FEW STRONG STORMS. 

   ...SRN MS...SRN AL...WRN FL PANHANDLE...
   STRONG HEATING WILL LEAD TO AN UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE AND WEAK
   INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON. THE NWLY FLOW REGIME WILL FAVOR CELLULAR
   ACTIVITY AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT SUGGEST HAIL. THE MAIN LIMITING
   FACTOR TO OVERALL THREAT IS LACK OF CONVERGENCE AND FORCING FOR
   ASCENT. THEREFORE...ONLY ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...A
   CONDITIONAL THREAT OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL EXISTS GIVEN STORMS.

   ..JEWELL.. 03/29/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

        
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Page last modified: March 29, 2015
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