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Feb 26, 2017 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Feb 26 17:30:26 UTC 2017 (Print Version | 20170226 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20170226 1730Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 261730

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1130 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

   Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION
   OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few strong to severe storms will be possible over a portion of the
   lower Mississippi Valley on Monday. Primary threats will be damaging
   wind gusts and some hail.

   ...Synopsis...

   Downstream from a positive-tilt synoptic trough amplifying over the
   western states, broad west-southwesterly flow aloft will prevail. A
   deamplifying shortwave trough will move from the lower-middle
   Mississippi Valley at the start of the period to the Middle Atlantic
   Area late Monday afternoon.  At the surface a lee-low will develop
   over the central High Plains, while a warm front advances north
   through eastern TX and the lower MS valley. A dryline will also
   evolve across central TX.

   ...Lower Mississippi Valley region...

   An MCS should be in progress 12Z Monday from western TN through a
   portion of LA. Storms along southern end of the MCS may pose an
   ongoing marginal risk for small to marginally severe hail and a few
   strong wind gusts. The warm sector south and east of this activity
   will destabilize with the onset of diabatic warming within an
   environment of 40-50 kt 0-6 km shear. However, tendency will be for
   the low-level jet to gradually shift east of this region in
   association with the progressive, low-amplitude shortwave trough.
   Moreover warmer air aloft accompanying a northeastward-expanding
   elevated mixed layer will slowly overspread the region from the
   southwest. These processes might contribute to limiting factors for
   a more robust severe threat. Nevertheless, storms along the southern
   end of the MCS may redevelop/intensify along the residual outflow
   boundary as the downstream atmosphere destabilizes, supporting a
   risk for a few instances of damaging wind and hail into the
   afternoon. Have therefore introduced a marginal risk category for
   this region, and trends will continue to be monitored for a possible
   slight risk in upcoming day 1 updates.

   Farther west the warm sector will destabilize from across eastern
   TX, but warm advection aloft accompanying the
   northeastward-expanding elevated mixed layer and weak forcing should
   inhibit additional thunderstorm development. However, storms may
   develop Monday evening or overnight north of the warm front across a
   portion of AR. These storms will be elevated, but the stronger
   storms may pose some risk for small to marginally severe hail.

   ..Dial.. 02/26/2017

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z

        
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Page last modified: February 26, 2017
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