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Aug 28, 2016 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Aug 28 05:21:00 UTC 2016 (Print Version | 20160828 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20160828 0600Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 280521

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1221 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

   VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MS
   VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE
   POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST
   WISCONSIN AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

   ...UPPER MS VALLEY...
   WEST TO NORTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME ESTABLISHED
   ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE U.S. AS A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
   ESEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT IS
   FORECAST TO ADVANCE SEWD ACROSS WRN AND NRN MN WITH A MOIST AIRMASS
   /SFC DEWPOINTS OF 65 TO 70 F/ IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS MAY
   RESULT IN A POCKET OF MODERATE INSTABILITY IN THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY
   MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE NAM AND GFS MODELS SUGGEST THAT SCATTERED
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS LOW-LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE BECOMES MAXIMIZED ACROSS CNTRL MN...NWRN WI AND WRN LAKE
   SUPERIOR DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. 

   NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM CNTRL MN NNEWD INTO THE ARROWHEAD OF MN
   FOR 00Z/TUE SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE AT OR ABOVE 2000
   J/KG...0-6 KM SHEAR OF 30 TO 35 KT AND STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES. THIS WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ROTATION WITHIN THE
   STRONGER UPDRAFTS MAKING HAIL POSSIBLE. A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE
   THREAT COULD ALSO OCCUR AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN DURING THE
   AFTERNOON. THE NAM SOLUTION APPEARS TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE
   CONCERNING A SEVERE THREAT. THE GFS IS MOSTLY IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
   NAM CONCERNING INSTABILITY AND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE BUT SHOWS
   RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. THE ECMWF APPEARS TO BE THE
   OUTLIER KEEPING THE ENVIRONMENT INSUFFICIENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION
   WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS
   ADD UNCERTAINTY INTO THE FORECAST. FOR THAT REASON...WILL BE
   CONSERVATIVE AND GO WITH A MARGINAL RISK. IF THE NAM SOLUTION ENDS
   UP BEING CLOSER TO CORRECT...THEN A SLIGHT RISK AREA COULD BE NEEDED
   IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

   ..BROYLES.. 08/28/2016

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

        
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Page last modified: August 28, 2016
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