Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

< Day 1 Outlook   Day 3 Outlook >
Jul 28, 2016 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Jul 28 17:41:50 UTC 2016 (Print Version | 20160728 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20160728 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Probabilistic
 Population  Cities  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 281741

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1241 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

   VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TO
   COASTAL SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
   PLAINS OT THE MID MS VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TO LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHERN
   NEW ENGLAND DURING FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  OTHER STRONG
   STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE
   MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
   NIGHT EAST OF THE ROCKIES.  MEANWHILE...THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED
   OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WILL BEGIN TO DAMPEN...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
   LATTER HALF OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...AS HEIGHTS FALL WITH THE
   APPROACH OF AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH INTO WESTERN CANADA.  A COUPLE OF
   IMPULSES WILL TRANSLATE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
   MID-ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH OR JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
   COASTAL AREAS.  AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE
   EAST-NORTHEAST ALONG A WARM FRONT THAT SHOULD EXTEND PARALLEL TO THE
   SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST...WITH SOME VARIABILITY IN THE LOCATION
   OF THE BOUNDARY.

   ...MID-ATLANTIC REGION TO LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
   A LEAD MIDLEVEL IMPULSE SHOULD TRACK ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW
   ENGLAND FRIDAY MORNING TO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.  GIVEN SOME
   UNCERTAINTY WITH THE PLACEMENT OF A WARM FRONT...EITHER ALONG
   COASTAL SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OR JUST OFFSHORE...THIS OUTLOOK HAS
   EXPANDED THE MARGINAL SEVERE-WEATHER RISK NORTH AND NORTHEAST. 

   STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT 12Z FRIDAY ATTENDANT TO A FAST MOVING
   LEAD MIDLEVEL IMPULSE.  ASSOCIATED BELT OF 30-40 KT OF LOW-LEVEL
   SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS  WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR WILL SUPPORT
   STRONG WIND PROFILES E OF THE COLD FRONT AND SFC LOW FROM THE
   CHESAPEAKE BAY NEWD ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INCLUDING THE
   OFFSHORE ISLANDS.  MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
   STRENGTHENING BULK SHEAR AS WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY 500-MB FLOW OF 50-60
   KT SPREADS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTAL AREA TO SOUTHERN NEW
   ENGLAND WILL SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION.  ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
   IN VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT SUGGESTS A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE
   RULED OUT.  OTHERWISE...DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
   SMALL CLUSTERS OR LINE SEGMENTS THAT DEVELOP WITH THE MORNING
   ACTIVITY AND OVER EASTERN VA ATTENDANT TO THE NEXT UPSTREAM
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. 

   ...MID-MS VALLEY/LOWER-OH VALLEY SOUTHWEST TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

   FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH THIS PORTION OF THE DAY 2
   OUTLOOK AS MESOSCALE DETAILS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON EARLY MORNING MCS
   MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF OK/TX...WHICH COULD POSE A LINGERING STRONG
   WIND THREAT INTO EARLY PORTIONS OF THE PERIOD.  MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
   IS FOR AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE DAY 1 MCS TO BE THE ACTIVE FOCI
   FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  HOWEVER...THE PLACEMENT OF
   THIS BOUNDARY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON REMAINS UNCERTAIN...WITH IT BEING
   ACROSS CENTRAL OK OR NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY.  DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
   WILL BE WEAK AS THIS AREA IS POSITIONED ALONG THE  SRN FRINGE OF
   N-NWLY FLOW ALOFT...BUT A THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY
   LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTION WHERE MORE ROBUST DIURNAL
   HEATING/MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS.  UNCERTAINTY INCREASES WITH
   NWD EXTENT INTO NORTHERN OK AND THE ERN TX/OK PANHANDLES...GIVEN THE
   DEGREE OF AIR MASS RECOVERY THAT CAN OCCUR.OTHERWISE...STRENGTHENING
   NOCTURNAL LLJ MAY SUPPORT ELEVATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF WRN OK AND THE ERN TX PANHANDLE AND POSSIBLY INTO
   SOUTHERN KS. 

   FARTHER E...INCLUDING THE OZARK PLATEAU NEWD TOWARDS THE MID-MS AND
   LOWER-OH VALLEYS...CONVECTION SHOULD PERSIST OR REDEVELOP LATE
   MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN EWD MOVING IMPULSE AND NEAR
   ACCOMPANYING SURFACE BOUNDARY.  THIS AREA WILL BE POSITIONED WITHIN
   A BELT OF RELATIVELY STRONGER MIDLEVEL WLY FLOW /E.G. 20-30 KT/...
   WITH PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY REMAINING THE DEGREE OF HEATING THAT CAN
   OCCUR. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY EXIST
   FROM NRN AR/ERN MO INTO SRN IL THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON.

   ...NERN NM AND ERN CO...
   UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THIS REGION SHOULD ENCOURAGE ISOLATED TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. NLY FLOW ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN
   ALONG THE ERN PERIPHERY OF A MIDLEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER NRN AZ AND
   RESULT IN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THE HIGH
   PLAINS. THE MAGNITUDE OF MOISTURE ADVECTING WWD IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO
   LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES POTENTIALLY ORIGINATING IN A POST-MCS AIR
   MASS OVER THE LOWER PLAINS...BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE
   DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON.

   ..PETERS.. 07/28/2016

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

        
Top/Latest Day 1 Outlook/Today's Outlooks/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: July 28, 2016
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities