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Aug 5, 2015 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Aug 5 05:27:24 UTC 2015 (Print Version | 20150805 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20150805 0600Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 050527

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1227 AM CDT WED AUG 05 2015

   VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN SD INTO SWRN MN AND
   ADJACENT AREAS OF IA AND NEB...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND NRN
   PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE TN VALLEY TO THE OUTER
   BANKS OF NC...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS AND
   HAIL MAY DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS...WESTERN
   MINNESOTA...AND ADJACENT AREAS OF NEBRASKA AND IOWA ON THURSDAY.
   OTHER STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE
   TENNESSEE VALLEY EASTWARD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TO THE
   MID-ATLANTIC COAST.

   ...OVERVIEW...
   A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE S-CNTRL U.S. WITH A
   NUMBER OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
   RIDGE AND EMBEDDED WITHIN 30-40KT MIDLEVEL FLOW. ONE OF THE STRONGER
   DISTURBANCES WAS TRACKING ACROSS NRN CA EARLY TODAY. LATEST GUIDANCE
   TAKES THIS IMPULSE E-NEWD ACROSS THE NRN GREAT BASIN AND THEN TO THE
   NRN HIGH PLAINS BY THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD/THURSDAY
   MORNING. DPVA AND MIDLEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM
   WILL INDUCE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND THE
   LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE WRN DAKOTAS TO MN DURING
   THURSDAY. 

   FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...RESIDUAL SYNOPTIC FRONT...FRACTURED BY
   NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS/COLD POOLS...WILL REMAIN A FOCUS FOR
   WEAK SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT FROM THE MS RIVER EAST TO THE OUTER
   BANKS OF NC. SURFACE DEVELOPMENT AND MORE CONCENTRATED/DEEPER ASCENT
   ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAY BE SUPPORTED BY A COMPLEX OF MIDLEVEL
   SHORTWAVE TROUGHS FORECAST TO SPREAD WEAK HEIGHT FALLS EASTWARD FROM
   THE TN VALLEY TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING THURSDAY.

   ...ERN SD INTO SWRN MN AND NWRN IA...
   MODEST TO STRONG ASCENT SHOULD ACT ON AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
   AIRMASS ACROSS THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS DURING THE DAY. STRONG TO
   ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL MAY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE
   PERIOD WITHIN WARM CONVEYOR BELT SITUATED FROM NEB TO ND. AS SURFACE
   LOW DEVELOPS EAST THROUGH THE DAY...WARM SECTOR ON THE EDGE OF
   PLAINS CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD BECOME AT LEAST MODERATELY UNSTABLE
   GIVEN LOW-MID 60S F DEWPOINTS AND STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ON
   THE ORDER OF 7 C/KM. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW AND WARM FRONT
   SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
   PRESENCE OF ADEQUATE SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. MOST SUPPORTIVE
   JUXTAPOSITION OF CAPE/SHEAR AND DYNAMIC FORCING WITHIN LEFT EXIT
   REGION OF MIDLEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO OCCUR DURING LATE AFTERNOON
   AND EVENING FROM ERN SD INTO SWRN MN AND ADJACENT AREAS OF NEB/IA. A
   FEW SUPERCELLS APPEAR POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS...PERHAPS CONGEALING
   INTO A FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS WITH TIME. HAIL AND SOME TORNADO
   POTENTIAL MAY EVOLVE FROM INITIALLY DISCRETE CONVECTION BEFORE ONSET
   OF POSSIBLY MORE LINEAR MODE RESULTS IN AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR
   DAMAGING WINDS. LACK OF GREATER DESTABILIZATION WITH EWD EXTENT
   SUGGESTS OVERALL SEVERE WIND RISK MAY BE PRIMARILY CONFINED TO LATE
   AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

   ...TN VALLEY TO COASTAL NC...
   LATEST GUIDANCE IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE EWD MOVEMENT OF THE
   ELONGATED COMPLEX OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CURRENTLY SITUATED ACROSS THE
   CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS. THESE IMPULSES WILL CONTINUE EAST ON THURSDAY
   AND SHOULD AID IN POCKETS OF STRONGER ASCENT AND STORM INITIATION AS
   VERY MOIST AND WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS UNDERGOES DIURNAL
   DESTABILIZATION. GENERALLY WEAK LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL SHEAR WILL
   LIMIT GREATER SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. HOWEVER... STORM
   COVERAGE/MULTICELL MERGERS...AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY GREATER
   DESTABILIZATION IN AREAS WITH STRONGER HEATING...COULD SUPPORT A FEW
   WET DOWNBURST EVENTS.

   ..CARBIN.. 08/05/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

        
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