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Aug 3, 2015 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Aug 3 05:59:51 UTC 2015 (Print Version | 20150803 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20150803 0600Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 030559

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1259 AM CDT MON AUG 03 2015

   VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS
   THROUGH THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY...TN VALLEY AND SRN PORTION OF THE OH
   VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE MID
   ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH
   PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TENNESSEE VALLEY
   AREAS. OTHER STRONG STORMS MAY OCCUR FROM A PORTION OF NEW ENGLAND
   INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION.

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH UPPER LOW
   REMAINING IN PLACE FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE NERN STATES. A SERIES
   OF IMPULSES WILL ROTATE THROUGH THIS FEATURE. AT LEAST A COUPLE OF
   VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL UNDERCUT WRN U.S. UPPER RIDGE AND CONTINUE
   THROUGH THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY AREAS. AT THE SFC
   A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH REMAINDER OF NEW ENGLAND WITH
   TRAILING PORTIONS OF THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDING SWWD THROUGH THE MID
   ATLANTIC AND THEN WWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS.

   ...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS THROUGH MID MS VALLEY AND TN/OH VALLEY AREAS...

   AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING 12Z TUESDAY WITHIN ZONE OF
   ASCENT NORTH OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY
   WWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. OTHER THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE IN PROGRESS
   FROM WRN KS NWWD INTO THE CNTRL/NRN ROCKIES IN ASSOCIATION WITH
   ASCENT ATTENDING A COUPLE OF SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THAT WILL
   UNDERCUT UPPER RIDGE. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME
   MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE MOIST WARM SECTOR...BUT
   AREAS OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS LOWER
   CONFIDENCE IN WHERE THE BEST DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR. MOST OF
   THIS REGION WILL REMAIN SW OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WITH VERTICAL
   SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELLS. AN EXCEPTION WILL BE POSSIBLY OVER
   WRN KS WHERE MODELS INDICATE ESELY WINDS WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF WEAK
   SFC LOW AND BENEATH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WLY WINDS ALOFT WITHIN BASE OF
   A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WHERE SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER
   WARMING OCCURS...STORMS SHOULD UNDERGO SOME INTENSIFICATION DURING
   THE AFTERNOON AND POSE A THREAT FOR MAINLY A FEW INSTANCES OF
   DAMAGING WIND. DUE TO THE POTENTIAL MITIGATING INFLUENCE OF ONGOING
   STORMS ON THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...WILL MAINTAIN THE MARGINAL
   RISK CATEGORY THIS UPDATE.

   FARTHER EAST INTO THE MIDDLE MS AND TN/OH VALLEYS ADDITIONAL STORMS
   SHOULD DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE STALLED FRONT AS THE ATMOSPHERE
   DESTABILIZES. THE STRONGEST DIABATIC WARMING AND DESTABILIZATION ARE
   EXPECTED FROM PORTIONS OF TN AND SRN KY. THIS REGION WILL ALSO
   RESIDE SOUTH OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT...BUT THE THERMODYNAMIC
   ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT A FEW INSTANCES OF MAINLY DAMAGING WIND
   DURING THE AFTERNOON.  

   ...NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC AREA...

   MODERATE INSTABILITY IS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT TUESDAY OVER
   PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AND SWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. STORMS ARE
   EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AS SFC LAYER DESTABILIZES. SOME RISK WILL
   EXIST FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH
   MID AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY GIVEN FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES IN THIS
   REGION. HOWEVER...OVERALL MAGNITUDE OF THREAT WILL DEPEND ON FRONTAL
   TIMING AND EXTENT OF CLOUDS AND EARLY CONVECTION WHICH REMAINS
   UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

   ..DIAL.. 08/03/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

        
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