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Jul 24, 2017 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Jul 24 05:55:38 UTC 2017 (Print Version | 20170724 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20170724 0600Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 240555

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1255 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

   Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE
   EASTERN DAKOTAS EAST INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND WESTERN UPPER
   MICHIGAN...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
   SLIGHT RISK AREA AND EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS NEBRASKA AND IOWA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Strong/locally severe thunderstorms will be possible across portions
   of the north-central U.S. Tuesday.

   ...Synopsis...
   As an upper trough across the Northeast moves east and eventually
   offshore, and a second trough lingers near the West Coast, ridging
   will prevail across much of the country.  During the second half of
   the period, this ridging will become suppressed over the
   north-central U.S., as weak short-wave troughing moving
   east-northeast out of the Rockies and into the Plains phases loosely
   with a low/trough crossing the Canadian Prairie.  

   At the surface, a cold front -- associated with the aforementioned
   Prairie/Plains upper troughing -- is forecast to move southeast
   across the northern Plains, eventually extending from the upper
   Mississippi Valley area southwestward across the central Plains by
   late in the period.  Elsewhere, a weak/lingering front extending
   from VA/NC and westward into the mid South will drift very slowly
   southward, as surface high pressure shifts slowly east across the
   Great Lakes into the Northeast.

   ...North-central states...
   Daytime heating of a moistening warm sector will support substantial
   diurnal destabilization, with afternoon mixed-layer CAPE values
   averaging 1500 to 2500 J/kg expected to evolve near/ahead of the
   advancing cold front.  Thus will likely prove sufficient, in
   combination with ascent focused near the front, to allow isolated to
   scattered storms to develop from the Minnesota vicinity
   west-southwest along the front to the northern High Plains area.  

   The strongest mid-level westerlies are forecast to remain across the
   North Dakota/northern Minnesota area, though a weaker/secondary
   speed max shifting out of the Rockies suggests that ample flow for
   isolated/organized cells will extend as far southwest as eastern
   Wyoming and into Nebraska.  As such, will maintain a broad area of
   5%/MRGL risk across the north-central U.S., with greatest (SLGT
   risk) probabilities focused over the eastern Dakotas/Minnesota
   through the afternoon and early evening.  With time, upscale growth
   of storms into one or two MCSs is possible, with risk possibly
   spreading east of the upper Mississippi Valley later in the evening.
    Convection is expected to diminish overnight, due to a decrease in
   instability -- both diurnally, and with eastward extent into the
   upper Great Lakes area.

   ..Goss.. 07/24/2017

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

        
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Page last modified: July 24, 2017
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