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Sep 18, 2014 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Sep 18 17:30:08 UTC 2014 (Print Version | 20140918 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20140918 1730Z Day 2 KML)
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   SPC AC 181730

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1230 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

   VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF ISOLATED HAIL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
   UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY EVENING.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE NRN PLAINS AND INTO
   THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A LEADING
   DISTURBANCE MOVING QUICKLY FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR
   DURING THE DAY...THEN MORE SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT FALLS OVERNIGHT ACROSS
   THE UPPER MS VALLEY.

   A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS AROUND 00Z INTO THE
   UPPER MS VALLEY BY 12Z SAT AS A NARROW PLUME OF 60S DEWPOINTS
   STREAMS NWD INTO SRN MN FRIDAY EVENING RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT
   INSTABILITY FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAINLY FROM SRN MN
   INTO WI.

   ELSEWHERE...RESIDUAL COOL AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE SERN STATES AND
   DAYTIME HEATING MAY RESULT IN SCATTERED NON-SEVERE STORMS.

   ...UPPER MS VALLEY LATE...
   A LEADING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR EARLY RAIN
   AND STORMS ACROSS NRN MN INTO NRN WI AND UPPER MI...AIDED BY A 50 KT
   SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET. ONLY VERY SMALL HAIL IS EXPECTED FROM THIS
   ACTIVITY AS IT WILL BE ELEVATED WITH WEAK INSTABILITY. 850 MB FLOW
   WILL VEER BEHIND THIS INITIAL WAVE...WITH NEUTRAL HEIGHT TENDENCIES
   AROUND 00Z. IN ADDITION...A SUBSTANTIAL CAPPING INVERSION WILL BE IN
   PLACE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...WITH NO STORMS EXPECTED DURING THE
   DAY.

   DURING THE EVENING...COOLING ALOFT WILL EVENTUALLY DECREASE THE
   CAPPING INVERSION. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO VEER AS
   THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT ARRIVES. ELEVATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
   MATERIALIZE FROM NEBRASKA ACROSS ERN SD...SRN MN AND WI BY 03-06Z.
   THE NEB-SD PORTION WILL BE DRIVEN MAINLY BY FRONTOGENESIS...WHILE
   THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
   BE LOCATED OVER WI. THEREFORE...HAVE MOVED THE 5% HAIL PROBABILITIES
   EWD INTO WI. HERE...ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH COOL UPPER-LEVEL
   PROFILES AND SUBSTANTIAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR ABOVE CLOUD BASE MAY YIELD
   SEVERE HAIL.

   ..JEWELL.. 09/18/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

        
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Page last modified: September 18, 2014
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