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Feb 19, 2017 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Feb 19 06:06:37 UTC 2017 (Print Version | 20170219 0700Z Day 2 shapefile | 20170219 0700Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 190606

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1206 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

   Valid 201200Z - 211200Z


   General thunderstorms are forecast over east Texas into Louisiana
   and northward into the Upper Midwest.  A few thunderstorms are
   possible near the Oregon and northern California coast late Monday

   A large-scale upper trough will slowly move eastward across the
   central US and feature a shortwave trough over the south-central
   Canada and an equatorward mid-level trough located over the
   south-central states.  A weak surface low will migrate eastward
   across the Upper Midwest as a cold front pushes into southwestern MN
   by late afternoon.  Another decaying frontal segment will ease
   towards the TX coast and serve as a focus for shower and
   thunderstorm activity.

   ...northwest Gulf Coast...
   Ongoing band of showers/thunderstorms Monday morning over the TX
   coastal plain will gradually move eastward into LA and the Gulf of
   Mexico.  Although strong mid- to high-level flow is forecast, weak
   instability will likely limit storm intensity as mid-level lapse
   rates are forecast to weaken prior to the start of the day 2 period.
   Nonetheless, a broken band or two of thunderstorms may perhaps pose
   a localized gusty wind risk during the morning before storms move
   off the coast.

   ...Upper Midwest...
   A plume of seasonably rich low-level moisture (dewpoints in the mid
   50s) over IA/MO will advect northward into MN during the day. 
   Models continue to suggest a period of showers/isolated
   thunderstorms during the morning to midday hours within a warm air
   advection regime.  The antecedent clouds will likely delay stronger
   surface heating ahead of the front.  Needless to say, only weak
   buoyancy is expected and forecast soundings show several hundred
   MUCAPE.  Although a strong storm cannot be ruled out, organized
   severe weather is not anticipated.

   ...northern CA coast...
   A mid-level speed max is forecast to move onshore late in the Day 2
   period.  A moist onshore air mass will become marginally unstable
   owing primarily to a cooling temperature profile (-20 to -28 degrees
   C during the afternoon to late night period).  A possible scenario
   includes a strongly forced and shallow convective band moving ashore
   and yielding a risk for locally strong gusts near the immediate

   ..Smith.. 02/19/2017



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