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Jul 23, 2014 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Jul 23 05:57:56 UTC 2014 (Print Version | 20140723 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20140723 0600Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 230557

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1257 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

   VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE WRN DAKOTAS
   AND ERN MT...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS
   ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS
   ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW WILL IMPINGE ON THE
   NRN PLAINS/CANADIAN PRAIRIES RIDGE AS IT REACHES THE LEE OF THE
   CANADIAN SRN ROCKIES BY EARLY FRI. ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
   DIFFER ON SPEED...AN ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH E/SE
   ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS. FARTHER E...A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH
   WILL PERSIST ACROSS SE CANADA INTO THE ERN CONUS. A SURFACE COLD
   FRONT SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES INTO THE SOUTHEAST.

   ...NRN PLAINS...
   A RELATIVELY NARROW PLUME OF LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS
   IS ANTICIPATED TO BE CENTERED FROM CNTRL KS INTO WRN/CNTRL ND THU
   AFTERNOON. WITH VERY STEEP TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES...NEAR 9 DEG
   C/KM FROM 700-500 MB...POTENTIAL BUOYANCY SHOULD BECOME MODERATE TO
   STRONG WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR. GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON SPATIOTEMPORAL
   DETAILS WITH WHERE TSTM INITIATION WILL OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT /ECMWF
   REMAINING FARTHER W IN ERN MT/. FORCING FOR ASCENT THROUGH MID-LEVEL
   HEIGHT FALLS AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
   OVERCOME INHIBITION AND YIELD AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS BY LATE
   AFTERNOON. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A COUPLE OF
   SUPERCELLS WHICH MAY CONGEAL INTO A CLUSTER WITH SEVERE WIND/HAIL.
   THE ERN EXTENT OF THE RISK THU EVENING SHOULD BE LIMITED BY
   SUBSTANTIAL MLCIN.

   ...PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST...
   A BELT OF ENHANCED MID/UPPER-LEVEL W/SWLYS IS EXPECTED TO OVERLAP
   THE REMAINING PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR THROUGH THU EVENING. WITH
   AROUND 30-35 KT FLOW AT 500 MB...SCATTERED STORMS ALONG THE FRONT
   AND SEA BREEZE MAY BECOME SEMI-ORGANIZED WITH A THREAT FOR ISOLATED
   DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...MARGINAL MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK
   LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD DISCOURAGE AN ORGANIZED SEVERE WIND RISK.

   ..GRAMS.. 07/23/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

        
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Page last modified: July 23, 2014
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