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Apr 20, 2014 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Apr 20 05:43:32 UTC 2014 (Print Version | 20140420 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20140420 0600Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Probabilistic
 Population  Cities  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 58,859 9,578,012 Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Ft. Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...
 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 200521

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1221 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

   VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE HILL COUNTRY OF TX
   INTO NERN TX...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED STRONG STORMS...A FEW POSSIBLY SEVERE...ARE EXPECTED TO
   DEVELOP FROM THE HILL COUNTRY OF CENTRAL TEXAS INTO NORTHEASTERN
   TEXAS DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

   ...TX...

   SWRN U.S./NRN MEXICO SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE INTO
   THE SRN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE DAY1 PERIOD BEFORE TURNING SE AND
   DIGGING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY 22/00Z.  STRONGEST FLOW AT MID
   LEVELS SHOULD TRANSLATE ACROSS CNTRL TX TOWARD LA WHICH SHOULD
   ENHANCE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR CONVECTION THAT EVOLVES WITHIN THIS
   CORRIDOR.  WHILE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL REMAIN FOCUSED PRIMARILY
   ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION EARLY BEFORE SHIFTING INTO THE LOWER MS
   VALLEY...STRONG HEATING OVER CNTRL TX IS EXPECTED TO PROVE
   INSTRUMENTAL IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG WEAK WIND SHIFT DURING
   THE AFTERNOON.

   EARLY IN THE PERIOD WEAK WARM ADVECTION SHOULD ASSIST SCT CONVECTION
   ACROSS OK INTO THE RED RIVER REGION OF NORTH TX.  THIS ACTIVITY IS
   EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS AND PROPAGATE/DEVELOP SEWD
   DURING THE DAY AS UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO TURN SEWD. 
   HOWEVER...STRONG HEATING ACROSS WCNTRL TX SHOULD WEAKEN CAP
   SUFFICIENTLY FOR TSTM INITIATION ALONG WEAK BOUNDARY BY 20Z.  20Z
   NAM FORECAST SOUNDING AT DYS EXHIBITS 2000 J/KG SBCAPE WITH AT LEAST
   30KT SFC-6KM SHEAR.  WHILE SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 3KM IS EXPECTED TO BE
   QUITE WEAK...HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE
   HEAT OF THE DAY WITHIN STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT.  ONE NEGATIVE
   IS THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE IN THE WAKE OF AFOREMENTIONED
   SHORT-WAVE TROUGH.  FOR THIS REASON IT APPEARS CONVECTION SHOULD
   REMAIN MOSTLY ISOLATED.  SELY STORM MOTION SHOULD ALLOW TSTMS TO
   SPREAD TOWARD CNTRL TX BY EARLY EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING.

   ..DARROW.. 04/20/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

        
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Page last modified: April 20, 2014
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