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Nov 17, 2017 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Nov 17 17:03:35 UTC 2017 (Print Version | 20171117 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20171117 1730Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 171703

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1103 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

   Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID
   MISSISSIPPI INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few strong to severe storms capable of marginal hail or damaging
   wind gusts will be possible Saturday mainly over the Ohio Valley
   region.

   ...Synopsis...
   A strong shortwave trough will move from the Plains to the MS Valley
   during the day, with a deepening surface low moving from St. Louis
   to Lake Erie. A rapid increase of winds aloft will occur with a 100
   kt midlevel jet into the OH Valley by 00Z. A strong cold front will
   sweep eastward with southwesterly surface winds bringing a narrow
   plume of mid 50s to lower 60s dewpoints northward into IL and IN.
   Warm air advection in the low-levels will further be augmented by a
   50-60 kt low-level jet. Despite the favorable synoptic scale setup,
   instability will be minimal, with only a few marginally severe
   storms expected during the day.

   ...Mid MS into the OH Valleys...
   An area of mainly elevated thunderstorms is expected to occur early
   in the day, perhaps across eastern MO, and then developing eastward
   across IL and IN, with lift aided by warm air advection. Forecast
   soundings show sufficient instability for marginally severe hail.
   Other activity, perhaps surface based, will occur near the low, and
   southward along the cold front. The main detriment to a more
   substantial severe wind event appears to be the lack of heating,
   with weak low-level lapse rates. This should keep warm sector
   activity immediately along the front. Strong wind gusts will occur
   with the frontal passage, and some of this could be convectively
   enhanced. 

   Farther south into TN, MS, and AL, instability will be even less,
   with a capping inversion preceding the front. Here too, some
   convectively augmented wind gusts will be possible during the
   afternoon and early evening.

   ..Jewell.. 11/17/2017

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z

        
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Page last modified: November 17, 2017
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