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Aug 23, 2014 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Aug 23 06:00:59 UTC 2014 (Print Version | 20140823 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20140823 0600Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 230600

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0100 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

   VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NRN AND CENTRAL
   MN AND ADJACENT NWRN WI...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY VICINITY ON
   SUNDAY.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   FEW CHANGES TO THE BROADER-SCALE UPPER PATTERN ARE FORECAST THIS
   PERIOD...WITH A TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE W AND A RIDGE OVER THE SRN
   AND ERN STATES.  ON THE SMALLER SCALE HOWEVER...AN UPPER LOW
   EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER-SCALE WRN U.S. CYCLONIC FLOW FIELD IS
   FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS ERN MT/ND INTO SRN MANITOBA...WITH SOME
   SUPPRESSION OF THE ERN UPPER RIDGE TO OCCUR AS A RESULT. 
   MEANWHILE...THE LARGER-SCALE WRN TROUGHING WILL BE MAINTAINED...AS A
   SECOND UPPER LOW DIGS SWD ACROSS THE PAC NW.

   AT THE SURFACE...A LOW INITIALLY OVER ND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT NWD
   INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE THROUGH THE DAY...AS THE
   AFOREMENTIONED/ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW SHIFTS TOWARD SRN MANITOBA.  A
   TRAILING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE NRN PLAINS/MID MS
   VALLEY AREA THROUGH THE DAY...AND THEN THE UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN UPPER
   GREAT LAKES AREA OVERNIGHT.  THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL FOCUS THE
   PRIMARY AREA OF SEVERE RISK THIS PERIOD.

   ...NRN AND CENTRAL MN/NWRN WI...
   AS A LARGE AREA OF ONGOING PRECIPITATION SHIFTS NWD INTO THE
   CANADIAN PRAIRIE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION IS
   FORECAST ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AREA...AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING
   COLD FRONT.  WITH MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS /INDICATIVE OF LARGE-SCALE
   ASCENT/ SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE FAR N CENTRAL U.S. AHEAD OF
   THE NEWD-MOVING UPPER SYSTEM...GREATEST RISK FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT
   APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS THE UPPER MS VICINITY DURING THE AFTERNOON. 
   ALONG WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY...A BELT OF 40 TO 50 KT SWLY FLOW AT
   MID LEVELS SPREADING ATOP THIS AREA WILL RESULT IN SHEAR SUFFICIENT
   FOR ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS.  ASSOCIATED RISK FOR HAIL AND/OR
   LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS IS APPARENT...WARRANTING SLIGHT RISK UPGRADE.


   OVERNIGHT...STORMS SHOULD SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND
   INTO THE WRN UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION -- ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED RISK
   FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY HAIL.

   ..GOSS.. 08/23/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

        
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Page last modified: August 23, 2014
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