Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

< Day 1 Outlook   Day 3 Outlook >
Sep 17, 2014 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Sep 17 17:27:21 UTC 2014 (Print Version | 20140917 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20140917 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Probabilistic
 Population  Cities  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 171727

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1227 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

   VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND AND MARGINAL WIND OR HAIL WILL BE
   POSSIBLE FROM NORTHERN NEVADA INTO SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
   THE NRN ROCKIES AND PLAINS LATE THURSDAY WITH A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR
   THE MT/ND BORDER AT 00Z. THE PRESENCE OF A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
   CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MAINTAIN UNFAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTURE TRAJECTORIES ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WITH ONLY UPPER 50S
   BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS.

   TO THE W...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE GREAT
   BASIN WITH INCREASING SWLY FLOW ALOFT AND HEIGHT FALLS FROM NV NEWD
   TOWARD YELLOWSTONE NP. A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST FROM NERN NV/UT
   INTO SERN ID BY AFTERNOON...HELPING TO FOCUS LOCALLY SEVERE WIND AND
   HAIL.

   ...NERN NV...ERN ID...NWRN UT...WRN WY...SWRN MT...
   STRONG SURFACE HEATING AS WELL AS COOLING ALOFT WILL LEAD TO STEEP
   LOW TO MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...WITH 500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE DEVELOPING.
   DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 30-40 KTS ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE
   SFC TROUGH SHOULD FAVOR A FEW CELLS OR SMALL BOWS CAPABLE OF STRONG
   WIND GUSTS OR HAIL NEAR 1.00 INCH. STORMS WILL PERSIST INTO THE
   EVENING WITH A HEAVY RAIN THREAT...BUT THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
   GENERALLY DWINDLE BY LATE EVENING.

   ...ERN MT...SWRN ND...NWRN SD...
   CAPPING WILL LIKELY INHIBIT DIURNAL STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG/E OF THE
   SFC TROUGH WITH A RIDGE ALOFT AND ONLY A NARROW RIBBON OF AN
   UNCAPPED AIR MASS MAINLY W OF THE SFC TROUGH IN THE VEERED SURFACE
   FLOW. HERE...LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE VERY STEEP WITH FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS SHOWING WEAK MIDLEVEL INSTABILITY. WITH RELATIVELY WEAK
   FLOW IN THE LOW-LEVELS...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT SEVERE WEATHER WILL
   OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT SPREADS EWD ACROSS MT AND INTO THE
   DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT.

   ..JEWELL.. 09/17/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

        
Top/Latest Day 1 Outlook/Today's Outlooks/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: September 17, 2014
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities