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Jun 27, 2016 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Jun 27 05:51:30 UTC 2016 (Print Version | 20160627 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20160627 0600Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 270551

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1251 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

   VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND
   NRN HIGH PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND
   NRN PLAINS INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES OUTSIDE OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WRN NEW ENGLAND AND ERN NY
   SSWWD INTO VA AND CNTRL NC...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL
   BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
   TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
   STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM CENTRAL NORTH
   CAROLINA NORTH NORTHEASTWARD INTO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
   ENGLAND.

   ...CNTRL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NRN ROCKIES ON TUESDAY
   WITH NORTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW IN THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS. AT THE
   SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY AS A
   COOL AIR ADVECTS SWD ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. ON THE WRN EDGE
   OF THE HIGH...SFC WINDS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO THE SOUTHEAST IN
   THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. AS A RESULT...A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTURE SHOULD SETUP FROM CNTRL KS NNWWD INTO WRN NEB ALONG WHICH
   MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY AFTERNOON. MODEL RUNS
   HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS...DEVELOPING A CLUSTER
   OR LINE OF STORMS ON THE NRN END OF THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY NEAR
   RAPID CITY AND MOVING THIS CONVECTION SSEWD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH
   PLAINS.

   IN ADDITION TO AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS...NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM
   RAPID CITY SD SSEWD TO NORTH PLATTE NEB FOR 00Z/WED SHOW MODERATE
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR DUE TO SUBSTANTIAL VEERING OF THE WINDS WITH HEIGHT
   AND 40 TO 50 KT OF WNW FLOW NEAR 300 MB. THIS SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE
   OF SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT SHORTLY AFTER INITIATION. THE POTENTIAL FOR
   SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL MAY BE GREATEST DURING THE FIRST COUPLE
   HOURS OF THE EVENT WHEN CELLS ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE DISCRETE. A
   TRANSITION TO LINEAR MODE WILL BE PROBABLE BY EARLY EVENING AS A
   RESULT OF CELL INTERACTIONS. THIS WOULD FAVOR WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL
   AS A LINE SEGMENT MOVES SEWD ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL NEB DURING THE
   EVENING.

   ...CNTRL NC/MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ESEWD ACROSS THE LOWER
   GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OH VALLEY ON TUESDAY. AT THE SFC...A COLD
   FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS WITH
   A NARROW CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
   THE FRONT. AS SFC HEATING TAKES PLACE AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
   INCREASES...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF
   THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM ERN NY SSWWD INTO THE
   MID-ATLANTIC AND CNTRL NC. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR
   FOR 21Z/TUE SHOW SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S F WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES AND 25 TO 30 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH
   FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WITH THE STRONGER
   UPDRAFTS.

   ..BROYLES.. 06/27/2016

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

        
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