Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

< Day 1 Outlook   Day 3 Outlook >
Apr 26, 2015 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Apr 26 17:05:36 UTC 2015 (Print Version | 20150426 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20150426 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Probabilistic
 Population  Cities  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 261705

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1205 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

   VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MIDDLE TX COAST AND
   SERN TX TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS IMMEDIATELY SURROUNDING THE
   SLIGHT RISK...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM EASTERN AND
   SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES ON
   MONDAY.

   ...TX TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST...
   A LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FEED FROM THE NWRN GULF INTO TX/LA DURING THE
   MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN/DESTABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER
   THE NWRN GULF COAST REGION AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL LOW LOCATED OVER
   NWRN TX TO START THE PERIOD.  THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR
   MONDAY IS THE DEVELOPMENT/EVOLUTION OF A THUNDERSTORM
   CLUSTER/COMPLEX THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL
   TX PRIOR TO THE START OF THE DAY 2 PERIOD.  AS THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW
   MEANDERS EWD ACROSS NWRN TX AND OK DURING THE DAY...THIS FEATURE AND
   A POWERFUL UPPER JET LOCATED OVER SRN/SERN TX WILL PROVIDE STRONG
   UPPER-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT AND IN TURN AID IN MAINTAINING
   WHATEVER MANAGES TO EVOLVE BY MONDAY MORNING.  BASED ON STRONG MODEL
   CONSENSUS TO THIS POINT...THE WRN AND NWRN BOUNDS OF THE SEVERE
   THREAT WILL PROBABLY BE DEMARCATED DUE TO EARLY DAY STORMS.  

   WITH THE ABOVE CONVECTIVE-SCALE INFLUENCING FACTORS AND ASSOCIATED
   UNCERTAINTY IN MIND...A MOISTURE RICH BOUNDARY LAYER /CHARACTERIZED
   BY MEAN MIXING RATIOS 14-16 G PER KG/ BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES --TO THE S OF A WEST-EAST ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE-- WILL
   CONTRIBUTE TO A MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.  A VEERING
   AND INCREASING WIND PROFILE WITH HEIGHT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM
   STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM RISK.  THE WIND
   DAMAGE RISK MAY EVOLVE TO BE PERHAPS THE GREATEST RISK AS STORMS
   MOVE EWD ALONG THE CNTRL GULF COAST DURING THE DAY.  IN WAKE OF
   EARLY-DAY CONVECTION FARTHER W OVER TX...IF SUFFICIENT
   DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR...A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY DEVELOP PRIOR TO
   EVENING BEFORE THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY WEAKENS TOWARDS DARK.

   ..SMITH.. 04/26/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

        
Top/Latest Day 1 Outlook/Today's Outlooks/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: April 26, 2015
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities