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May 23, 2013 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu May 23 05:56:49 UTC 2013  (Print Version)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Probabilistic
 Population  Cities  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 230554
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1254 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
   
   VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. MAKES SLOW EWD PROGRESS THIS
   PERIOD...THE UPSTREAM/CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE WILL EXPAND EWD WITH TIME. 
   MEANWHILE FARTHER W...A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
   THE WRN STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
   
   AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT AN ERN U.S. COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFFSHORE
   EARLY IN THE PERIOD...AS THE UPPER TROUGH ADVANCES.  IN ITS WAKE...A
   LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL FROM THE PLAINS EWD.  A LEE
   TROUGH IS FORECAST TO RESIDE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS -- SUSTAINED BY
   WLY FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES -- WHICH WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
   SEVERE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL -- ALBEIT ISOLATED -- THIS PERIOD.
   
   ...CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   WITH STRONG LARGE-SCALE RIDGING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...RESULTING
   SUBSIDENCE WILL MAINTAIN A CAPPING INVERSION ACROSS MOST AREAS
   THROUGH THE PERIOD.  GREATEST THREAT FOR LOCAL BREACHING OF THE CAP
   WILL OCCUR OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...NEAR THE LEE TROUGH.  WITH
   LOW-LEVEL SELYS BENEATH 25-35 KT MID-LEVEL WLYS...SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
   EVOLUTION OF ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH ANY STORMS WHICH DO DEVELOP. 
   THUS -- WILL MAINTAIN A ZONE OF 5% SEVERE THREAT...TO ACCOUNT FOR
   THE ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL.
   
   ..GOSS.. 05/23/2013
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

        
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Page last modified: May 23, 2013
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