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Sep 26, 2017 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Sep 26 05:59:28 UTC 2017 (Print Version | 20170926 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20170926 0600Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 260559

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1259 AM CDT Tue Sep 26 2017

   Valid 271200Z - 281200Z


   The severe weather threat across the continental U.S. is expected to
   be low on Wednesday.

   An upper low/trough is forecast to linger over the Desert
   Southwest/Four Corners area Wednesday, making only very slow
   north/northeast progress.  Meanwhile, ridging aloft is progged to
   remain over the south-central and southeast portions of the country.
   Farther north, northern stream troughing will continue spreading
   east across the eastern half of Canada and adjacent portions of the
   U.S. -- from the Great Lakes east to New England through the end of
   the period.

   At the surface, a cold front initially extending from a western
   Quebec surface low southwest across the mid Ohio and lower
   Mississippi Valleys will make steady eastward progress across the
   eastern half of the country, while high pressure spreads east in the
   wake of the front to encompass a large portion of the CONUS through
   the period.

   Two main areas of deep moist convection are expected -- one over the
   southwest and south-central portions of the country ahead of the
   western low/trough, and a second over the northeast ahead of the
   advancing northern-stream feature.  In the southwest, shear on the
   southeast fringe of the upper circulation center may be sufficient
   to promote a few stronger cells, with sub-cloud evaporation aiding
   potential for gusty winds in a few locales.  However, any risk for
   severe weather remains too low to prompt inclusion of a risk area at
   this time.  Meanwhile in the northeast, some destabilization ahead
   of the front will combine with ample deep-layer shear, resulting in
   an environment that could conditionally support a couple of
   stronger/locally severe storms.  However, with much of the
   convection expected to remain north of the international border and
   questions regarding coverage farther south into the VT/NH/ME
   vicinity at this time, will refrain from areal highlights in this

   ..Goss.. 09/26/2017



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