SPC AC 230554
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. MAKES SLOW EWD PROGRESS THIS
PERIOD...THE UPSTREAM/CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE WILL EXPAND EWD WITH TIME.
MEANWHILE FARTHER W...A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE WRN STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT AN ERN U.S. COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFFSHORE
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...AS THE UPPER TROUGH ADVANCES. IN ITS WAKE...A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL FROM THE PLAINS EWD. A LEE
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO RESIDE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS -- SUSTAINED BY
WLY FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES -- WHICH WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
SEVERE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL -- ALBEIT ISOLATED -- THIS PERIOD.
...CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS...
WITH STRONG LARGE-SCALE RIDGING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...RESULTING
SUBSIDENCE WILL MAINTAIN A CAPPING INVERSION ACROSS MOST AREAS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GREATEST THREAT FOR LOCAL BREACHING OF THE CAP
WILL OCCUR OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...NEAR THE LEE TROUGH. WITH
LOW-LEVEL SELYS BENEATH 25-35 KT MID-LEVEL WLYS...SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
EVOLUTION OF ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH ANY STORMS WHICH DO DEVELOP.
THUS -- WILL MAINTAIN A ZONE OF 5% SEVERE THREAT...TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL.
..GOSS.. 05/23/2013
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z