Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

< Day 1 Outlook   Day 3 Outlook >
Jul 7, 2015 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Jul 7 17:30:24 UTC 2015 (Print Version | 20150707 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20150707 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Probabilistic
 Population  Cities  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 071730

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1230 PM CDT TUE JUL 07 2015

   VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE MID MS
   VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE SRN HIGH
   PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A CONDITIONAL RISK WILL EXIST FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES OVER THE
   MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW
   STRONG STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN
   HIGH PLAINS.

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   BELT OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL
   BORDER WITH MODEST QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PERSISTING OVER THE REST OF THE
   U.S. DOWNSTREAM FROM A CUTOFF UPPER LOW THAT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY INTO
   CA. SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW REGIME ARE OF
   INTEREST INCLUDING ONE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SWRN OK/NWRN TX THAT
   WILL MOVE SLOWLY ENEWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER
   SUCH FEATURE OVER NRN AZ WILL EMERGE OVER THE SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS
   WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC A CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED FRONT WILL
   STALL FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY BEFORE POSSIBLY
   ADVANCING SLOWLY NWD AS A WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO WEAK
   CYCLOGENESIS.  

   ...MID MS VALLEY REGION...

   SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING 12Z WEDNESDAY IN
   VICINITY OF STALLED FRONT FROM ERN OK INTO NRN ARK/SRN MO AND THE OH
   VALLEY. A SFC LOW INDUCED BY THE SLOW...ENEWD-MOVING VORTICITY
   MAXIMUM WILL DEVELOP NEWD ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THE MID MS
   VALLEY DURING THE DAY ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG /50+ KT/ SLY LLJ. THE
   INTERACTION OF THE LLJ WITH THE FRONT WILL PROBABLY MAINTAIN
   CONVECTION ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS FEATURE. A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY
   LAYER WITH LOW 70S F DEWPOINTS WILL RESIDE SOUTH OF CONVECTIVELY
   REINFORCED FRONT WHERE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SOME WARM SECTOR
   DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND WEAK MID-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES SUGGEST INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MARGINAL WITH MLCAPE
   PROBABLY AOB 500 J/KG. NEVERTHELESS...DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF
   BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STORMS TO INTENSIFY.
   SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY POSE A RISK FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AS THEY
   MOVE ENEWD AND INTERACT WITH THE FRONT WHERE 0-1 KM HELICITY WILL BE
   LOCALLY ENHANCED AT THE INTERSECTION OF THE LLJ AND BOUNDARY. THIS
   REGION WILL BE MONITORED...AND A SLIGHT RISK MIGHT BE NEEDED IN DAY
   1 UPDATES ONCE UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING EVOLUTION OF MESOSCALE AND
   THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT HAVE BEEN MITIGATED. 

   ...SRN HIGH PLAINS...

   COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH MUCH OF WRN TX...AND THIS BOUNDARY
   WILL BEGIN TO UNDERGO FRONTOLYSIS AND MOVE SLOWLY NWD AS A WARM
   FRONT AS WINDS RETURN TO SLY NORTH OF THIS FEATURE. WHILE THE RICHER
   MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO SOUTH OF THE FRONT...AT LEAST LOW
   60S F DEWPOINTS WILL RETURN NWD THROUGH THE SRN HIGH PLAINS EAST OF
   DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH AND BENEATH ERN FRINGE OF STEEPER MID LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES RESULTING IN 1500 J/KG MLCAPE. MEANWHILE...DIABATIC
   WARMING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDING A
   SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF
   THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY FROM NERN NM INTO SERN CO DURING THE
   AFTERNOON. WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY
   MODEST...A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED
   DOWNBURST WINDS AND SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AS THEY DEVELOP
   EWD THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE.

   ..DIAL.. 07/07/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

        
Top/Latest Day 1 Outlook/Today's Outlooks/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: July 07, 2015
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities