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Aug 2, 2015 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Aug 2 11:37:51 UTC 2015 (Print Version | 20150802 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20150802 1730Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 021137

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0637 AM CDT SUN AUG 02 2015

   VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NERN STATES INTO A
   PORTION OF THE OH VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NERN STATES INTO THE
   OH VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE
   MIDDLE MS VALLEY...

   CORRECTED FOR PROBABILITY CONTOURS

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES
   AND A PORTION OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
   VALLEY.

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   EMBEDDED WITHIN BASE OF AN UPPER LOW CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER SERN
   CANADA...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT UPPER JET WILL CONTINUE
   THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO THE NERN STATES ACCOMPANIED
   BY A COLD FRONT. TRAILING PORTIONS OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER
   THE CNTRL PLAINS AREA.

   ...NERN STATES INTO THE OH VALLEY...

   MODIFIED CP AIR WITH UPPER 50S TO MID 60S F DEWPOINTS WILL ADVECT
   THROUGH PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR AND CONTRIBUTE TO MODEST 500-1500
   J/KG MLCAPE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS. THE STRONGER INSTABILITY
   WILL RESIDE OVER THE OH VALLEY WHERE RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
   EXIST. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD
   FRONT WITHIN WARM CONVEYOR BELT OVER A PORTION OF THE NERN STATES.
   ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS
   THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES DURING THE AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WILL BE
   EMBEDDED WITHIN A BELT OF STRONGER DEEP-LAYER WINDS WITHIN THE UPPER
   LOW CIRCULATION. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BECOME CAPABLE OF
   PRODUCING MAINLY DAMAGING WIND. 

   ...CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY...

   MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED IN VICINITY OF STALLED FRONT FROM
   THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY...MOST LIKELY FROM NRN KS TO
   SRN NEB AND NRN MO. THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF STRONGER
   WINDS ALOFT...BUT SUFFICIENT VEERING WILL EXIST TO SUPPORT 25-35 KT
   EFFECTIVE SHEAR. THUNDERSTORM INITIATION ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE
   AFTERNOON REMAINS UNCERTAIN DUE TO WEAK FORCING AND PRESENCE OF A
   CAP. GREATER CONFIDENCE EXISTS THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND BECOME
   MORE WIDESPREAD MONDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS
   AND AUGMENTS CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN VICINITY OF THE
   FRONT. THE STRONGER STORMS MIGHT BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW
   INSTANCES OF STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL.

   ..DIAL.. 08/02/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

        
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Page last modified: August 02, 2015
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