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Aug 28, 2016 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Aug 28 17:02:15 UTC 2016 (Print Version | 20160828 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20160828 1730Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 281702

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1202 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

   VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE UPPER
   MIDWEST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE
   POSSIBLE MONDAY ACROSS PARTS OF MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND
   WESTERN PART OF THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN.

   ...UPPER MIDWEST...
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING MONDAY MORNING WITHIN MODEST
   LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME.  IT IS POSSIBLE A STRONGER STORM OR TWO MAY BE
   CAPABLE OF AN MARGINALLY SEVERE-HAIL THREAT BUT THIS ACTIVITY IS
   FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE TOWARDS THE MIDDAY.  STORM
   DEVELOPMENT WILL THEN SHIFT WESTWARD ALONG A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO
   MOVE INTO NWRN MN BY MID AFTERNOON.  STRONG HEATING IN WAKE OF
   POSSIBLE EARLY-DAY CLOUD DEBRIS AND 65-70 DEG F DEWPOINTS WILL
   CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. 
   ALTHOUGH A MID-LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTH
   NEAR THE MANITOBA COAST...A BELT OF 30-40 KT H5 FLOW MAY OVERSPREAD
   NRN MN BUT THE STRENGTH OF FLOW WILL WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY WITH
   SOUTHWARD EXTENT INTO CNTRL/SRN MN.  SCATTERED STORMS WILL PROBABLY
   DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND THE MORE INTENSE STORMS
   CAPABLE OF AN ISOLATED LARGE-HAIL/SEVERE-GUST THREAT.  STORMS WILL
   LIKELY WEAKEN DURING THE EARLY EVENING OWING TO THE LOSS OF
   BOUNDARY-LAYER INSTABILITY.

   ..SMITH.. 08/28/2016

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

        
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Page last modified: August 28, 2016
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