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Feb 14, 2016 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Feb 14 07:32:52 UTC 2016 (Print Version | 20160214 0700Z Day 2 shapefile | 20160214 0700Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 140732

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0132 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

   VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE CNTRL
   GULF COAST AREA...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CNTRL GULF COASTAL
   REGION...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE COASTAL
   CAROLINAS...

   CORRECTED FOR OUTLOOK GRAPHIC AND SLIGHT RISK HEADER

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MIGHT OCCUR OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
   COASTAL AREA MONDAY AND POSSIBLY THE COASTAL CAROLINAS MONDAY NIGHT.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
   ERN 1/2 OF THE COUNTRY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN BASE OF
   THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SERN STATES MONDAY AND THE
   CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. ATTENDANT SFC LOW INITIALLY OVER THE LOWER MS
   VALLEY EARLY MONDAY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TN VALLEY...REACHING THE
   CNTRL APPALACHIANS TOWARD THE END OF PERIOD. TRAILING COLD FRONT
   WILL SWEEP SEWD THROUGH THE SERN U.S. AND BY 12Z TUESDAY SHOULD
   EXTEND FROM THE SFC LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION SWWD THROUGH
   THE ERN CAROLINAS INTO THE NRN GULF. A COASTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED
   TO MOVE INTO THE ERN CAROLINAS MONDAY EVENING.

   ...CNTRL GULF COASTAL AREA...

   LARGE AREA OF CP HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE ERN U.S.
   SUNDAY MAINTAINING INFLUX OF CP AIR OVER THE CNTRL/ERN GULF. AS THE
   HIGH MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...MODIFIED CP AIR WILL RETURN
   NWD ALONG A SLY LLJ THROUGH THE WRN GULF SUNDAY NIGHT AND EWD INTO
   THE WRN/CNTRL GULF COAST AREA MONDAY. BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS WILL
   RISE INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S BENEATH COLD AIR ALOFT WITH -16 TO -18C
   AT 500 MB RESULTING IN DESTABILIZATION... BUT THE NAM CAPE APPEARS
   SOMEWHAT OVERDONE. POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MULTI-LAYER CLOUDS AND AREAS
   OF ONGOING CONVECTION SHOULD LIMIT MUCAPE TO 500-700 J/KG...WITH
   GREATEST INSTABILITY LIKELY NEAR COASTAL AREAS WHERE AT LEAST MODEST
   DIABATIC WARMING WILL BE POSSIBLE. CONVECTION MAY UNDERGO SOME
   INTENSIFICATION WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENT ZONE AS WELL AS ALONG
   SEWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. TREND HAS BEEN FOR MODELS TO ADVERTISE A
   WEAKER TROUGH WITH RESULTING WEAKER VERTICAL SHEAR ALONG WITH
   RELATIVELY EARLY VEERING OF THE LLJ. NEVERTHELESS...0-6 KM SHEAR
   SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENT /GENERALLY 35-45 KT 0-6 KM/ TO SUPPORT
   POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH A THREAT FOR DAMAGING
   WIND...SOME HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO. 

   ...COASTAL CAROLINAS...

   COASTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE INLAND LATER MONDAY AS SHALLOW WEDGE
   FRONT GRADUALLY ERODES FROM THE SE IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG
   EWD-MIGRATING SLY LLJ. WEAK INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTS
   AS THE MOIST WARM SECTOR MOVES INLAND WHERE A STRONGLY SHEARED
   ENVIRONMENT WILL EXIST. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EWD
   ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDING
   THE NEWD EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVERSPREADS REGION. GIVEN THE
   FAVORABLE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT...A CONDITIONAL RISK WILL EXIST FOR
   A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.

   ..DIAL.. 02/14/2016

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

        
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