SPC AC 230532
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1132 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009
   
   VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   STRONG UPR LOW OVER THE LWR MO VLY EARLY TUESDAY WILL TRANSLATE INTO
   THE MIDWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER IMPULSE DROPS SWD INTO THE NRN
   PLNS.  IN THE LWR LVLS...A LOW TIED TO THE FORMER SYSTEM WILL MOVE
   FROM NWRN MO INTO WCNTRL IL BY 12Z WEDNESDAY AS A CDFNT SWEEPS EWD
   THROUGH THE MIDWEST...OH/LWR MS VLYS AND THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO. 
   FARTHER S...AN OLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SITUATED FROM PARTS OF
   PENINSULAR FL WWD ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO.  A FRONTAL WAVE
   WILL FORM ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OVER THE WRN GULF BY TUESDAY NIGHT IN
   RESPONSE TO SRN STREAM ENERGY EJECTING NEWD FROM CNTRL MEXICO.
   
   ...CORN BELT/UPR MS VLY...
   UPR LOW/PV-ANOMALY SHOULD PEAK IN INTENSITY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
   TUESDAY OVER PARTS OF IA/MO WITH UVV GRADUALLY WEAKENING DURING THE
   NIGHT AS THE FEATURE BEGINS TO LIFT NEWD TOWARD THE UPR MS VLY. 
   FCST SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT SUFFICIENT MOISTENING/STEEP H7-H5 LAPSE RATES
   FOR UPRIGHT ELEVATED CONVECTION...PARTICULARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND
   AFTN FROM CNTRL/SRN IA AND NRN MO NEWD INTO PARTS OF WRN IL.  MEAGER
   THERMAL BUOYANCY WILL PRECLUDE SVR TSTMS.
   
   ...S TX...
   CDFNT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM NW-SE ACROSS S TX FROM MID-DAY INTO
   THE LATE AFTN TUESDAY.  PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WILL HAVE MOISTENED
   BY THEN WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN THE 60S...RESULTING IN MLCAPES OF
   1000-1500 J/KG.  BUOYANCY WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY ROBUST OWING TO
   POOR LLVL LAPSE RATES EXPECTED.  FURTHERMORE... GIVEN THAT THE
   PRIMARY CORE OF MID/UPR-LVL WIND FIELDS IS PROGGED TO PASS THROUGH N
   TX...THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE WEAK...LESS THAN 30 KTS.  AS
   SUCH...SVR TSTM PROBABILITIES SHOULD REMAIN LOW.
   
   ...CNTRL FL...
   A FEW TSTMS MAY BE POSSIBLE INVOF THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS CNTRL
   FL...PRIMARILY TUESDAY AFTN/NIGHT.  WHILE THE WARM MID-TROPOSPHERIC
   TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CAP OFF STORMS EARLY IN THE DAY...APCH OF
   THE H5 TROUGH/WEAK HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO COOLING. THIS
   WILL MAKE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES MORE FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS LATER IN
   THE DAY 2 PERIOD.  NO SVR WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.
   
   ..RACY.. 11/23/2009
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z