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Aug 27, 2015 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Aug 27 17:30:47 UTC 2015 (Print Version | 20150827 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20150827 1730Z Day 2 KML)
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   SPC AC 271730

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1230 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

   VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER NERN ND INTO NWRN MN...

   ...SUMMARY...
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...PARTS OF
   THE CORN BELT...PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST...AND THE INTERIOR WEST.

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   ERN U.S. SYNOPTIC UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEAMPLIFY FRIDAY
   WHILE A SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCES THROUGH THE UPPER MS
   VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A WEAK SFC LOW WILL ACCOMPANY
   THIS FEATURE INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITH TRAILING WEAK COLD FRONT
   ADVANCING SEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS. A WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND
   EWD FROM THE LOW AND MOVE NWD INTO SRN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES.
   A FASTER...LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ESEWD
   ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER IN PROXIMITY NERN ND AND NWRN MN
   DURING THE DAY. FARTHER WEST A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
   BASE OF AN UPPER LOW AND INTO NRN CA AND WRN OREGON FRIDAY NIGHT.

   ...NERN ND THROUGH NWRN MN...

   A PLUME OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL DEVELOP EWD THROUGH ND INTO NRN
   MN BENEATH GENERALLY LOW-60S F DEWPOINTS RESULTING IN 1500 J/KG
   MLCAPE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK FORCING
   AND LIKELIHOOD OF AT LEAST A MODEST CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD LIMIT
   SFC-BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MUCH OF DAY. HOWEVER...DIABATIC
   WARMING OF BOUNDARY LAYER AND MODEST ASCENT DUE TO GLANCING
   INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY WEAKEN THE CAP
   ENOUGH FOR A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER NERN ND OR NWRN MN BY LATE
   AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE A
   FEW INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.

   ...MID MS VALLEY REGION...

   WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND ONGOING PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SLOW
   MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN AN UNFAVORABLE
   THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORMS IN THIS REGION.

   ..DIAL.. 08/27/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

        
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Page last modified: August 27, 2015
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