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Oct 23, 2017 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Oct 23 16:54:00 UTC 2017 (Print Version | 20171023 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20171023 1730Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 231654

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1154 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

   Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF
   THE NORTHEAST STATES...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MIDDLE
   ATLANTIC INTO A PORTION OF THE NORTHEAST STATES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday across a part of the
   Northeast, particularly near the northern Mid Atlantic coast
   northward through the Hudson Valley.  These storms will be
   accompanied by a modest risk for a few strong to damaging wind gusts
   and possibly a couple of tornadoes.

   ...Synopsis...

   Shortwave trough now over the Southeast States will deamplify as it
   ejects northward into the Great Lakes in response to an upstream
   impulse that will move southeast into base of the synoptic trough,
   resulting in significant amplification of this feature over the
   eastern half of the U.S. Tuesday. Surface low will occlude over the
   Great Lakes with a trailing front extending from the low southward
   through the Mid Atlantic, eastern Carolinas and northern FL by 12Z
   Tuesday. The winds aloft will become nearly parallel to this
   boundary as the upper trough amplifies, resulting in a slower
   eastward progression. By the end of the period this front should
   extend from New England southward through the western Atlantic and
   into south FL. 

   ...Northeast States...

   Bands of low-topped convection and possibly a few thunderstorms will
   be ongoing ahead of the front along the warm conveyor belt from
   eastern North Carolina, the coastal Mid Atlantic into a portion of
   the Northeast States. The thermodynamic environment will be
   characterized by very weak instability (MLCAPE at or below 300 J/kg)
   and near moist adiabatic profiles. However, convection will remain
   embedded within strong deep layer winds and vertical shear nearly
   parallel to the developing bands with 60+ kt within the first few
   hundred meters of the surface. Despite the limiting factors imposed
   by very marginal thermodynamic profiles, this environment will
   support at least a modest risk for low-topped bowing segments and
   embedded meso-vortices capable of producing a few instances of
   damaging wind and a brief tornado or two as activity develops
   eastward during the day.

   ..Dial.. 10/23/2017

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

        
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Page last modified: October 23, 2017
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