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Aug 20, 2014 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Aug 20 05:31:25 UTC 2014 (Print Version | 20140820 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20140820 0600Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 200531

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1231 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

   VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG...WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
   GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION AS WELL AS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
   CENTRAL PLAINS. SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
   STRONGEST STORMS.

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO
   BUILD NORTHWARD AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH STRENGTHENS NEAR THE GULF
   COAST REGION. ACROSS THE WEST...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
   INTERMOUNTAIN WEST REGION WILL STRENGTHEN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD
   AS AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS FROM SEWD ADVANCING SHORTWAVE IMPULSE INTO
   THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  

   AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE MANITOBA/ND BORDER WILL
   SLOWLY PROGRESS E/NE. AN ATTENDANT SWWD TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
   SURGE E/SE ACROSS MN AND INTO THE MID-MO VALLEY/CNTRL PLAINS BY
   FRIDAY MORNING. ADDITIONALLY...A DRYLINE WILL INTERSECT THE COLD
   FRONT NEAR THE WRN NEB/KS BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND EXTEND
   S/SWWD ACROSS WRN KS INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLE AND FAR ERN NM.
   FINALLY...A WARM FRONT OVER THE MID-MS TO LOWER OH VALLEY WILL LIFT
   NORTHWARD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. 

   ...CNTRL PLAINS INTO IA/FAR NW MO...

   THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA THURSDAY
   MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A DECAYING MCS. ANY LINGERING CLOUD COVER
   FROM THIS SYSTEM COULD LIMIT REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS LATER IN THE
   AFTERNOON/EVENING NEAR THE SEWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT ACROSS CNTRL
   NEB...OR ALONG THE SFC DRYLINE ACROSS WRN KS. IF STORM DO DEVELOP IN
   THESE AREAS...SOME STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
   GIVEN 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 30-40 KT...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE
   VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG. CONVECTION WOULD LIKELY REMAIN ISOLATED
   GIVEN A LACK OF STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE AREA.
   HOWEVER...SOME MAINTENANCE AND/OR UPSCALE GROWTH COULD OCCUR AS
   STORMS PROPAGATE EWD TOWARD THE MID-MO VALLEY AS A SWLY LLJ AROUND
   30-40 KT DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT. THIS REMAINS MORE UNCERTAIN THOUGH.

   ...GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION...

   WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO BE ONGOING THURSDAY IN WARM
   ADVECTION REGIME AS THE SFC WARM FRONT RETREATS NORTHWARD THROUGH
   THE AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE ADEQUATE /25-35 KT/ FOR SOME
   SEMI-ORGANIZED STRUCTURES AND ANY BREAKS IN PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD
   COVER COULD RESULT IN STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND WEAK TO MODERATE
   INSTABILITY. ADDITIONALLY...PW VALUES AROUND 1.5 TO 2 INCHES...COULD
   ALLOW FOR FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS/WET DOWNBURSTS. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD
   ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIMITED AT THIS TIME.

   ..LEITMAN.. 08/20/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

        
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