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Mar 26, 2015 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Mar 26 17:16:09 UTC 2015 (Print Version | 20150326 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20150326 1730Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 261716

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   ISSUED BY 15TH OWS SCOTT AIR FORCE BASE IL
   1216 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

   VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE
   SOUTH...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
   SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA FRIDAY.

   ...FL...

   STRONG HEIGHT FALLS WILL OVERSPREAD THE SERN U.S. FRIDAY AS
   MID-LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST AND INCREASES TO
   NEAR 100KT.  THIS LARGE-SCALE EVOLUTION SHOULD FORCE COLD FRONT INTO
   THE CNTRL PENINSULA BY 18Z WITH SUBSEQUENT MOVEMENT EXPECTED INTO
   THE KEYS BY 28/06Z.  WHILE DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL VEER AND STRENGTHEN
   ACROSS THE PENINSULA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...IT APPEARS
   PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY MOIST FOR CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT ALONG ADVANCING COLD FRONT.  NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   SUGGEST MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO LOW LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING SBCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000-1500 J/KG. 
   ROBUST UPDRAFTS COULD EVOLVE ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PENINSULA GIVEN
   EXPECTED DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.  PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE MARGINALLY SEVERE
   WIND GUSTS WITH NEAR-FRONTAL CONVECTION.

   ...PACIFIC NW...

   STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL SPREAD ACROSS WA/ORE DURING THE LATTER
   HALF OF THE DAY2 PERIOD.  LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD INCREASE AHEAD
   OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE INTERIOR-NW WHERE DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD
   CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK BUOYANCY.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
   WITHIN FAVORABLE SWLY FLOW REGIME IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE.

   ..15_OWS.. 03/26/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

        
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Page last modified: March 26, 2015
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