SPC AC 251659

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1159 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

   VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
   PLAINS...

   ...PLAINS...

   WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS
   LATE IN THE PERIOD AS A WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EJECTS ACROSS THE NRN
   ROCKIES TO A POSITION FROM WRN MT INTO NWRN WY AT 27/12Z.  THIS
   FEATURE WILL UNDOUBTEDLY ENHANCE THE WWD MOVEMENT OF BOUNDARY LAYER
   MOISTURE ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TOWARD SCNTRL MT AS ELY LOW
   LEVEL COMPONENT...AT LEAST 1KM DEEP...FORCES LOWER 50S SFC DEW
   POINTS TOWARD BIL.  WHILE LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH SHORT-WAVE WILL
   LAG PEAK HEATING...IT APPEARS CONVECTION SHOULD EVOLVE OFF THE NRN
   ABSAROKA RANGE...AND NRN BIG HORN MOUNTAINS.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
   THEN EVOLVE AND SPREAD TOWARD SERN MT/EXTREME NERN WY WHERE SHEAR
   PROFILES WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS.  LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES
   CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.  IF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
   DEVELOPS ACROSS THIS REGION THERE IS CONCERN FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND
   POSSIBLY A STRONG TORNADO.  23Z FORECAST SOUNDING AT 4BQ SUPPORTS
   THIS POSSIBILITY AS IT DEPICTS A VERY FAVORABLE PROFILE FOR STRONG
   ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH SBCAPE IN EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG.

   FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS...IT/S NOT PARTICULARLY CLEAR
   IF A DISTURBANCE WILL EJECT ACROSS CO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BUT
   FORECAST HEIGHT FIELDS ARE SUPPRESSED SOMEWHAT ACROSS THIS REGION
   INTO THE EVENING HOURS SUGGESTING THE POSSIBILITY. 
   ADDITIONALLY...LLJ IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE MARKEDLY ACROSS KS BY
   27/00Z WHICH SUGGESTS A WEAK FEATURE MAY BE FLATTENING THE RIDGE
   ACROSS THIS REGION.  WITH BACKING FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS NEB IT
   APPEARS E-W SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD ESTABLISH ITSELF JUST NORTH OF I-70
   AND THIS WILL PROVE FAVORABLE FOR ROBUST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
   DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY AS LLJ IMPINGES
   ON THE BOUNDARY.  STRONG HEATING ACROSS WRN KS WILL LIKELY
   CONTRIBUTE TO INITIAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR SEEMS
   ADEQUATE FOR MAINTENANCE OF SLOW MOVING SUPERCELLS AND
   STRONG/ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS.

   ROUGHLY 20KT OF 500MB FLOW WILL ALSO EXTEND SWD ALONG THE DRYLINE
   ACROSS WEST TX.  IT APPEARS DIURNAL HEATING WILL BREAK THE CAP
   ACROSS THIS REGION WHERE SBCAPE SHOULD BE AOA 3000 J/KG.  AT THIS
   TIME WILL MAINTAIN 5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBS FOR HAIL/WIND ALONG THE
   SRN DRYLINE BUT THERE IS CONCERN PROBABILITIES MAY NEED TO BE
   INCREASED TO ACCOUNT FOR SCT ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS.

   ..DARROW.. 05/25/2013

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z