Jul 23, 2016 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Jul 23 05:23:01 UTC 2016 (20160723 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20160723 0600Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160723 0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 226,666 34,418,045 Chicago, IL...Detroit, MI...Milwaukee, WI...Denver, CO...Colorado Springs, CO...
Probabilistic Graphic
20160723 0600 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 225,744 34,360,567 Chicago, IL...Detroit, MI...Milwaukee, WI...Denver, CO...Colorado Springs, CO...
   SPC AC 230523

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1223 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

   VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS UPPER GREAT LAKES...MIDWEST...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
   AND MIDWEST REGIONS...ALONG WITH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...MAINLY
   SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE SHOULD TRACK EAST
   ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO DURING THE PERIOD. ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD
   FRONT WILL PROGRESS EAST OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...WITH TRAILING
   PORTION BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS KS.

   ...UPPER GREAT LAKES...MIDWEST...
   DECAYING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT 12Z/SUN IN THE
   VICINITY OF LAKE SUPERIOR TO LAKE MICHIGAN. REMNANTS OF THIS
   ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST EASTWARD ACROSS LOWER MI AND ADJACENT STATES
   WITHIN A CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME. GUIDANCE DIFFERS
   SUBSTANTIALLY WITH THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION IN THE WAKE OF
   THESE MORNING STORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE IMPINGING COLD FRONT...AS
   WELL AS TIMING OF THE FRONT. WITH NEAR-NEUTRAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
   CHANGE THROUGH 25/00Z ALONG THE FRONT...MOST MODELS INDICATE MINIMAL
   CONVECTIVE QPF DURING PEAK HEATING. THUS...THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE
   SEVERE THREAT APPEARS RATHER CONDITIONAL. 

   SUN EVENING/NIGHT...MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE
   WARM SECTOR AND YIELD WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS ALONG THE FRONT AND
   ANY REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM MORNING CONVECTION. THIS APPEARS
   MOST PROBABLE ACROSS PARTS OF LOWER MI INTO CENTRAL IL. STRONGER
   MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES SHOULD LARGELY LAG BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
   MODERATE DEEP SHEAR MIGHT SUPPORT A MODESTLY ORGANIZED CLUSTER OR
   TWO NORTH...WHEREAS LARGER BUOYANCY SHOULD COMPENSATE FOR WEAK SHEAR
   SOUTH. ISOLATED SEVERE WIND/HAIL SHOULD BE THE MAIN HAZARDS. 

   ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
   MODEST UPSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONT LIKELY
   BISECTING KS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD OCCUR BENEATH A BELT
   OF WEAK TO MODERATE MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES PERIPHERALLY ASSOCIATED
   WITH THE ONTARIO SHORTWAVE THROUGH. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
   SHOULD FORM LATE DAY INTO EVENING ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES INTO
   WESTERN KS. AMID WEAK BUOYANCY...SETUP MAY FOSTER MULTICELL CLUSTERS
   AND EMBEDDED WEAKLY ROTATING UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED SEVERE
   WIND/HAIL.

   ..GRAMS.. 07/23/2016

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z