Mar 28, 2017 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Mar 28 05:28:42 UTC 2017 (20170328 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20170328 0600Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20170328 0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
ENHANCED 79,992 4,552,319 Shreveport, LA...Little Rock, AR...Tyler, TX...Fort Smith, AR...Longview, TX...
SLIGHT 153,363 14,810,836 Houston, TX...Memphis, TN...Tulsa, OK...Springfield, MO...Pasadena, TX...
MARGINAL 153,602 18,703,627 Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Kansas City, MO...Arlington, TX...
Probabilistic Graphic
20170328 0600 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 28,379 1,539,674 Shreveport, LA...Bossier City, LA...Pine Bluff, AR...Texarkana, TX...Texarkana, AR...
30 % 80,561 4,606,732 Shreveport, LA...Little Rock, AR...Tyler, TX...Fort Smith, AR...Longview, TX...
15 % 152,604 14,754,264 Houston, TX...Memphis, TN...Tulsa, OK...Springfield, MO...Pasadena, TX...
5 % 154,825 18,850,554 Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Kansas City, MO...Arlington, TX...
   SPC AC 280528

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1228 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

   Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
   AFTERNOON AND NIGHT OVER MUCH OF AR...NORTHWEST LA...AND NORTHEAST
   TX....

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TX INTO
   KS AND MO...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
   THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND LOWER/MID MS VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday from parts of east
   Texas and eastern Oklahoma into the lower and middle Mississippi
   Valley.

   The strong shortwave trough currently digging into the southwest
   states will move across the southern Plains on Tuesday and affect
   the lower MS Valley on Wednesday.  Widespread thunderstorms are
   expected across TX Tuesday night, but model solutions indicate that
   this activity will diminish Wednesday morning over east TX and
   southeast OK.  This will allow the air mass in this region to
   recover, with a corridor of moderate instability developing ahead of
   the surface dryline/cold front.  Thunderstorms will re-develop along
   the boundary during the afternoon and track northeastward across
   parts of LA/AR during the evening/night.  The NAM/GFS solutions are
   consistent in developing a potent low-level jet that moves from
   southeast TX into southern AR after dark.  The resulting forecast
   soundings would support a risk of supercells and bowing structures
   producing tornadoes (possibly strong), as well as large hail and
   damaging winds.  Portions of the region may need upgraded to MDT
   risk in later updates if model solutions continue to support this
   scenario.

   ..Hart.. 03/28/2017

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z