Apr 24, 2014 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Apr 24 06:00:38 UTC 2014 (20140424 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20140424 0600Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140424 0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20140424 0600 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 240431

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1131 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

   VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED STRONG...OR PERHAPS ONE OR TWO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...MAY
   DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND ALONG A DRYLINE
   OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS.

   ...SERN U.S...

   SRN ROCKIES SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS INTO THE OH/TN
   VALLEY EARLY FRIDAY.  SRN END OF THIS DEAMPLIFYING FEATURE IS
   EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
   INTO SRN VA...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS 17-18Z AS SFC TEMPERATURES WARM
   INTO THE EARLY 70S.  BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
   PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE BUT SBCAPE COULD
   APPROACH 1000 J/KG ACROSS SC WHERE FEWER CLOUDS AND STRONGER HEATING
   ARE EXPECTED.  WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 35KT ANY
   CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS COULD ATTAIN ORGANIZED STRUCTURES CAPABLE
   OF GENERATING GUSTY WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.


   ...SOUTHWEST TX...

   SHORT-WAVE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE WEST TX DRYLINE FRIDAY. 
   AS LEE TROUGH INTENSIFIES BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE OVER DEEP SOUTH TX
   SHOULD BEGIN RETURNING NWWD ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO THE
   EDWARDS PLATEAU OF SWRN TX.  STRONG HEATING ALONG THE DRYLINE SHOULD
   ALLOW SFC TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S WHICH SHOULD
   WEAKEN INHIBITION BY 22Z.  LATEST THINKING IS ANY CONVECTION THAT
   EVOLVES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD PROVE VERY ISOLATED...THOUGH
   GUSTY WINDS OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY ANY ORGANIZED
   STORMS BETWEEN 22-03Z.

   ...WRN U.S...

   STRONG MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX IS FORECAST TO DIG SEWD INTO THE LOWER CO
   RIVER BASIN BY 26/12Z.  AS COLD TROUGH MOVES INLAND LAPSE RATES
   SHOULD STEEPEN ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY DURING
   AFTERNOON WHEN SFC TEMPERATURES SHOULD ENHANCE MARGINAL INSTABILITY.

   ..DARROW.. 04/24/2014

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z