SPC AC 170418
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1118 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
Thunderstorm potential will focus across portions of the Florida
Peninsula Wednesday and over southern New Mexico.
Weak large-scale forcing for ascent will linger across the FL
Peninsula ahead of a mid-level short-wave trough during the day2
period. Higher PW air mass will gradually be shunted toward the
southern tip of the Peninsula by the end of the period but adequate
buoyancy should linger within a post-frontal environment for a few
thunderstorms within easterly low-level flow regime.
Farther west, strong boundary-layer heating will be noted across
northern Mexico into southeast AZ and extreme southwest NM. It
appears surface parcels should reach their convective temperatures
by 21z near the international border and isolated thunderstorms
appear possible within a weakly-forced environment. Latest model
data suggests a weak short-wave trough will translate into NM by 18z
which will encourage modified moisture surge to lift north across
northern Mexico into southern NM aiding convective potential across
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z