Apr 26, 2017 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Apr 26 05:26:25 UTC 2017 (20170426 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20170426 0600Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20170426 0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 276,131 46,170,114 Detroit, MI...Columbus, OH...Cleveland, OH...Atlanta, GA...Pittsburgh, PA...
Probabilistic Graphic
20170426 0600 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 276,604 46,244,385 Detroit, MI...Columbus, OH...Cleveland, OH...Atlanta, GA...Pittsburgh, PA...
   SPC AC 260526

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1226 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

   Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM A PORTION
   OF THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   At least a marginal risk for a few severe storms capable of isolated
   damaging wind gusts and hail is expected from the Southeast States
   into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes on Thursday.

   ...Synopsis...

   Lead shortwave trough embedded within a broad synoptic trough will
   continue northeast through the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes early
   Thursday. Farther upstream, a series of vorticity maxima north of an
   evolving, strong upper jet core will advance southeast through the
   Great Basin, southern Rockies and southern Plains. The surface
   cyclone attending the lead shortwave trough will occlude over the
   Great Lakes, while trailing front continues through the OH and TN
   valleys. The southwestern extension of this front will stall and
   return north as a warm front across TX in response to lee
   cyclogenesis over the southern High Plains.

   ...Southeast States...

   Richer low-level moisture with dewpoints in the 60s F will reside
   over a portion of the Southeast States warm sector, contributing to
   marginal to moderate instability. It is likely that storms will be
   ongoing from middle TN into AL and the FL Panhandle, and some of
   this activity could pose an ongoing severe risk as it continue east
   during the morning into the early afternoon given favorable wind
   profiles but modest instability. Tendency will be for the deeper
   forcing and stronger low-mid level winds to gradually shift north of
   this region in association with shortwave trough moving northeast
   through the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. This may serve as a
   limiting factor for a longer duration, organized severe threat.
   Nevertheless, this area will continue to be monitored for a possible
   slight risk in future updates.

   ...Ohio Valley and Great Lakes...

   The feed of richer low-level moisture will become limited as the
   cyclone occludes over the Great Lakes region. However, at least
   marginal instability within a strong shear environment will exist in
   pre-frontal warm sector, and storms might pose some risk for a few
   instances of isolated damaging wind gusts and hail as they develop
   east during the day. This region will also be monitored for a
   possible slight risk in later updates.

   ..Dial.. 04/26/2017

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z