Apr 1, 2015 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Apr 1 06:00:19 UTC 2015 (20150401 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20150401 0600Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20150401 0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 125,045 16,793,103 Indianapolis, IN...Columbus, OH...St. Louis, MO...Cincinnati, OH...Louisville, KY...
MARGINAL 192,313 29,100,428 Detroit, MI...Memphis, TN...Nashville, TN...Cleveland, OH...Tulsa, OK...
Probabilistic Graphic
20150401 0600 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 125,032 16,786,818 Indianapolis, IN...Columbus, OH...St. Louis, MO...Cincinnati, OH...Louisville, KY...
5 % 192,413 29,227,028 Detroit, MI...Memphis, TN...Nashville, TN...Cleveland, OH...Tulsa, OK...
   SPC AC 010600

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0100 AM CDT WED APR 01 2015

   VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM OH/INDIANA/NWRN KY WSWWD
   INTO THE OZARKS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
   WSWWD TO ERN OK...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AREA
   SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE OZARKS...AND POSSIBLY ADJACENT EASTERN
   OKLAHOMA.  HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
   STRONGER STORMS.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A GRADUAL EWD ADVANCE LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGHING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
   ACROSS THE U.S. DAY 2... WITH FLAT CYCLONIC FLOW TO COVER MOST OF
   THE COUNTRY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  AT THE SURFACE...EWD
   PROGRESSION OF A CENTRAL U.S. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE.  THE FRONT
   WILL MOVE MORE QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST REGION AND
   MORE SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS THE OZARKS...SUCH THAT BY THE END OF THE
   PERIOD A ENE-WSW BOUNDARY SHOULD EXTEND FROM NEW ENGLAND TO NRN/WRN
   TX.

   ...INDIANA/OH WSWWD ACROSS THE OZARKS...
   CONVECTION IS PROGGED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD INVOF
   THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION SWWD INTO
   THE MO VICINITY...WHICH -- COMBINED WITH ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS --
   SHOULD ACT TO HINDER DAYTIME HEATING TO SOME DEGREE ACROSS THE WARM
   SECTOR.  STILL...WITH CONTINUED ENEWD SPREAD OF HIGHER THETA-E
   LOW-LEVEL AIR ACROSS THE MIDWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...EVEN MODEST
   HEATING WILL HELP BOOST MIXED-LAYER CAPE VALUES INTO THE 500 TO 1000
   G/KG RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE OH VALLEY...AND 1000 TO 2000 J/KG INTO
   THE OZARKS WHERE GREATER HEATING AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE
   EXPECTED.

   WITH WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGHING EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROADER CYCLONIC
   FLOW FIELD ALOFT EXPECTED TO CROSS THE OH VALLEY DURING THE
   AFTERNOON...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION/STORMS INVOF THE
   ADVANCING COLD FRONT.  DESPITE AFOREMENTIONED LIMITATIONS
   THERMODYNAMICALLY...MODERATELY STRONG/VEERING FLOW WITH HEIGHT
   ACROSS THE AREA WILL SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION -- AND ASSOCIATED
   RISK FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THE SLIGHT
   RISK AREA.  THE ONSET OF A GRADUAL DIURNAL DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE
   INTENSITY IS FORECAST DURING THE EVENING ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH
   SEVERE RISK MAY LINGER WELL INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE OZARKS
   VICINITY AS A SECOND VORT MAX ALOFT SHIFTS INTO THIS REGION.

   ..GOSS.. 04/01/2015

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z