Oct 24, 2014 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Oct 24 05:43:56 UTC 2014 (20141024 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20141024 0600Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20141024 0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 32,458 1,285,029 Redding, CA...Chico, CA...Medford, OR...Yuba City, CA...Woodland, CA...
Probabilistic Graphic
20141024 0600 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 32,458 1,285,029 Redding, CA...Chico, CA...Medford, OR...Yuba City, CA...Woodland, CA...
   SPC AC 240543

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1243 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

   VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF NRN CA AND SWRN
   ORE...

   ...SUMMARY...
   NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY
   ACROSS PARTS OF THE WEST COAST. A COUPLE OF STORMS MAY PRODUCE
   LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS OR A BRIEF TORNADO ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
   AND SOUTHWEST OREGON FROM LATE MORNING TO MID-AFTERNOON.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A POTENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE ASHORE FROM
   NRN CA TO WA...DAMPENING AS IT PENETRATES INLAND ACROSS THE
   NORTHWEST. ATTENDANT SURFACE CYCLONE SHOULD TRACK FROM THE PACIFIC
   NW COAST TOWARDS THE SRN CANADIAN ROCKIES WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING
   E ACROSS THE NORTHWEST.

   ...NRN CA TO SWRN ORE...
   COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL LIKELY SUPPORT
   SPORADIC CHARGE SEPARATION WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTIVE
   ELEMENTS...MAINLY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. DESPITE
   DAMPENING OF THE TROUGH...INITIALLY INTENSE LOW/MID-LEVEL WINDS
   /CHARACTERIZED BY 700 MB FLOW AOA 60 KT/ WILL FAVOR ENLARGED
   HODOGRAPHS AND RATHER STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. BUOYANCY WILL REMAIN
   MEAGER...SBCAPE AOB 500 J/KG...WITH LIMITED SURFACE INSOLATION. BUT
   GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE WIND FIELDS...LOCALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS
   AND EVEN A BRIEF TORNADO APPEAR POSSIBLE. BY LATE DAY...INCREASINGLY
   VEERED/DIMINISHING WINDS WILL CURTAIL THE MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT.

   ..GRAMS.. 10/24/2014

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z