Jul 1, 2016 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Jul 1 06:06:44 UTC 2016 (20160701 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20160701 0600Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160701 0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 20,822 4,552,323 Raleigh, NC...Greensboro, NC...Durham, NC...Winston-Salem, NC...Cary, NC...
MARGINAL 201,217 11,562,552 Charlotte, NC...Kansas City, MO...Wichita, KS...Amarillo, TX...Overland Park, KS...
Probabilistic Graphic
20160701 0600 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 20,715 4,531,981 Raleigh, NC...Greensboro, NC...Durham, NC...Winston-Salem, NC...Cary, NC...
5 % 201,672 11,600,723 Charlotte, NC...Kansas City, MO...Wichita, KS...Amarillo, TX...Overland Park, KS...
   SPC AC 010606

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0106 AM CDT FRI JUL 01 2016

   VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SWRN VA AND
   INTO NC...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE VA/NC SLIGHT
   RISK...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN HIGH
   PLAINS AND INTO KS/OK/WRN MO...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS
   AREA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL
   BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM PARTS OF THE
   SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI.  A FEW
   STRONG/SEVERE STORMS AND ASSOCIATED RISK FOR GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS
   WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA AND POSSIBLY
   NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS
   WELL AS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND ADJACENT SOUTHWEST
   VIRGINIA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AS AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO CROSS ERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST
   CONUS...LOWER AMPLITUDE FLOW IS PROGGED TO PREVAIL OVER THE U.S. THE
   REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.  AT THE SURFACE...A FRONT MOVING OFF THE
   NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL TRAIL SWWD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES...AND
   WILL FOCUS STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CAROLINAS VICINITY DURING THE
   AFTERNOON.  MEANWHILE...A WEAK LOW OVER THE TX PANHANDLE DURING THE
   AFTERNOON AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT EXTENDING ENEWD MAY SERVE AS A
   FOCUS FOR ISOLATED STORMS.

   ...CAROLINAS/SWRN VA VICINITY...
   WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES ARE PROGGED ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/VA
   DURING THE DAY...BUT HEATING OF A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER INVOF THE
   REMNANT COLD FRONT LIKELY TO LIE ACROSS THE AREA COMBINED WITH
   DIURNAL HEATING WILL YIELD MODERATE DESTABILIZATION.  THIS SHOULD
   RESULT IN SCATTERED TO ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT INVOF THE REMNANT
   BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON.  

   WHILE COVERAGE OF STORMS REMAINS IN QUESTION...PRESENCE OF 35 TO 40
   KT MID-LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED FROM NRN NC NWD WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO
   SUPPORT ORGANIZED/ROTATING UPDRAFTS...AND THUS WILL INTRODUCE A
   SMALL SLIGHT RISK AREA TO HIGHLIGHT RISK FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
   AND HAIL THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

   ...SRN HIGH PLAINS ENEWD ACROSS PARTS OF KS/NRN OK INTO WRN MO...
   ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT
   OF CO/NRN NM INTO NEB/KS/THE TX AND OK PNHDLS DURING THE AFTERNOON
   -- FOCUSED INVOF A SURFACE LOW OVER THE TX PNHDL AND ASSOCIATED WARM
   FRONT EXTENDING ENEWD -- SHOULD SUPPORT AFTERNOON AND EVENING
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...WITH AN ENVIRONMENT FEATURING 1000-2000
   J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE.  

   A BELT OF ENHANCED /30 TO 40 KT/ MID-LEVEL WLYS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
   AFOREMENTIONED UPPER SYSTEM AND PROGGED TO LIE ATOP THE FRONTAL ZONE
   MAY YIELD AMPLE SHEAR FOR A FEW STRONGER/ORGANIZED STORMS...AND
   ASSOCIATED RISK FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.  QUESTIONS
   REGARDING OVERALL STORM COVERAGE EXIST...AND GIVEN THE RELATIVELY
   MODEST KINEMATIC AND THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY
   5%/MRGL RISK AT THIS TIME.

   ...NRN HIGH PLAINS...
   ISOLATED STORMS -- MAINLY N OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BUT PERHAPS
   EXTENDING AS FAR AS NERN MT/NWRN ND -- SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE
   LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...AS MODEST BOUNDARY-LAYER
   MOISTURE COMBINES WITH DIURNAL HEATING TO YIELD AMPLE /AROUND 1000
   J/KG/ HIGH-BASED MIXED-LAYER CAPE.  THOUGH WEAK SHORT-WAVE RIDGING
   IS PROGGED ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A VORT MAX PROGGED TO BE
   CROSSING NRN ID/NWRN MT DURING THE EARLY EVENING...PRESENCE OF A
   WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER ERN MT MAY FOCUS DEVELOPMENT...WHILE MODEST
   BUT VEERING FLOW WITH HEIGHT YIELDS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LONGER-LIVED
   UPDRAFTS.  THE MAIN SEVERE RISK APPEARS LIKELY TO BE DAMAGING WINDS
   GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR EVAPORATIVELY AIDED DOWNDRAFTS.

   ..GOSS.. 07/01/2016

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z