Apr 27, 2015 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Apr 27 04:41:40 UTC 2015 (20150427 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20150427 0600Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20150427 0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 26,568 2,453,943 Mobile, AL...Tallahassee, FL...Gulfport, MS...Pensacola, FL...Biloxi, MS...
MARGINAL 100,835 20,406,988 New Orleans, LA...Miami, FL...Tampa, FL...Hialeah, FL...Baton Rouge, LA...
Probabilistic Graphic
20150427 0600 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 25,620 2,367,237 Mobile, AL...Tallahassee, FL...Gulfport, MS...Pensacola, FL...Biloxi, MS...
5 % 100,612 20,495,783 New Orleans, LA...Miami, FL...Tampa, FL...Hialeah, FL...Baton Rouge, LA...
   SPC AC 270441

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1141 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

   VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
   COAST...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS IMMEDIATELY SURROUNDING THE
   SLGT RISK FROM SRN LA TO THE FL PENINSULA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
   THE SOUTHERN GULF STATES TUESDAY.  ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE
   POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

   ...CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF STATES...

   SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS SHOULD BEGIN TO DEAMPLIFY
   AND EJECT EWD DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD AS STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FLOW
   TRANSLATES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...EWD ALONG THE GULF
   COAST.  THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE A WEAK SFC LOW OVER THE
   NWRN GULF BASIN WITH SUBSEQUENT MOVEMENT EXPECTED TO TRACK TO NEAR
   THE WRN TIP OF THE FL PANHANDLE BY 29/00Z.  IT/S NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR
   HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL ADVANCE INLAND AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE DUE
   TO THE POSSIBILITY FOR SUBSTANTIAL DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NRN GULF
   BASIN.  IF AN MCS EVOLVES OVER THE NRN GULF...AS LATEST GFS
   SUGGESTS...THEN AN EFFECTIVE FRONT OFFSHORE MAY LIMIT SEVERE THREAT
   INLAND.  HAVE OPTED TO INCREASE SEVERE PROBS A BIT NEAR THE COAST TO
   ACCOUNT FOR MODIFIED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ADVANCING INLAND.  GIVEN
   THE STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR THIS SCENARIO WOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED
   SEVERE...POSSIBLY A FEW SUPERCELLS AND EVEN ISOLATED TORNADOES.

   ..DARROW.. 04/27/2015

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z