Oct 17, 2017 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Oct 17 04:18:54 UTC 2017 (20171017 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20171017 0600Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20171017 0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20171017 0600 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 170418

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1118 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

   Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorm potential will focus across portions of the Florida
   Peninsula Wednesday and over southern New Mexico.

   ...Discussion...

   Weak large-scale forcing for ascent will linger across the FL
   Peninsula ahead of a mid-level short-wave trough during the day2
   period. Higher PW air mass will gradually be shunted toward the
   southern tip of the Peninsula by the end of the period but adequate
   buoyancy should linger within a post-frontal environment for a few
   thunderstorms within easterly low-level flow regime. 

   Farther west, strong boundary-layer heating will be noted across
   northern Mexico into southeast AZ and extreme southwest NM. It
   appears surface parcels should reach their convective temperatures
   by 21z near the international border and isolated thunderstorms
   appear possible within a weakly-forced environment. Latest model
   data suggests a weak short-wave trough will translate into NM by 18z
   which will encourage modified moisture surge to lift north across
   northern Mexico into southern NM aiding convective potential across
   this region.

   ..Darrow.. 10/17/2017

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z