Jul 29, 2014 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Jul 29 05:06:49 UTC 2014 (20140729 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20140729 0600Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140729 0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20140729 0600 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 162,875 21,503,860 Dallas, TX...Columbus, OH...Oklahoma City, OK...Cleveland, OH...Tulsa, OK...
   SPC AC 290506

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1206 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

   VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...SOUTHERN KANSAS
   AND NORTH TEXAS WITH PERHAPS A MARGINAL WIND OR HAIL THREAT. OTHER
   DAYTIME STORMS WILL OCCUR FROM OHIO INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
   WESTERN NEW YORK WITH SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A LARGE AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW/COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL EXIST
   ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS AS AN UPPER LOW REMAINS STATIONARY
   ACROSS JAMES BAY...RESULTING IN A FEW STRONG DIURNAL STORMS FROM OH
   INTO WRN NY.

   HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED ROUGHLY FROM THE CNTRL AND NRN
   ROCKIES EWD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES BUT SELY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH
   WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY MOIST AIR MASS INTO THE SRN PLAINS
   THROUGH THE PERIOD. HERE...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL EXIST ACROSS NRN
   TX...WITH AREAS OF RAIN AND STORMS PERSISTING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
   REGION.

   ...SRN PLAINS...
   THE PRESENCE OF A SLY LOW-LEVEL JET WED MORNING WILL AID CLUSTERS OF
   STORMS FROM WRN KS INTO NWRN OK EARLY...AND WARM ADVECTION AROUND
   850 MB WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. INSTABILITY WILL GENERALLY BE
   WEAK...BUT A LOCALIZED STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED
   OUT DUE TO THE ORGANIZED NATURE OF THE STORMS AS WELL AS MODESTLY
   VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT. IN ADDITION...HEATING S OF THE BOUNDARY
   INTO TX WILL STEEPEN LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH COULD SUPPORT
   OUTFLOW WINDS ON SRN PERIPHERY OF THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM.

   ...OH VALLEY INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES...
   DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
   REGION WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THE STEEPEST LAPSE RATES ALOFT
   WILL STRETCH FROM OH INTO NY WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES OF -15 TO -18
   C. SCATTERED DAYTIME STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND SOME MAY CONTAIN SMALL
   HAIL. SOME OF THE STRONGEST CORES MAY HAVE HAIL APPROACHING 1 INCH
   DIAMETER BEFORE DWINDLING DURING THE EVENING.

   ..JEWELL.. 07/29/2014

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z