Nov 2, 2014 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Nov 2 05:45:34 UTC 2014 (20141102 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20141102 0600Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20141102 0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 37,000 892,024 Lubbock, TX...Midland, TX...Odessa, TX...Hobbs, NM...Big Spring, TX...
Probabilistic Graphic
20141102 0600 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 37,031 892,078 Lubbock, TX...Midland, TX...Odessa, TX...Hobbs, NM...Big Spring, TX...
   SPC AC 020545

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1245 AM CDT SUN NOV 02 2014

   VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE TX SOUTH PLAINS AND
   VICINITY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
   SOUTHERN KANSAS AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  ONE OR TWO
   STORMS COULD BECOME BRIEFLY SEVERE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
   EVENING ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE/SOUTH PLAINS VICINITY.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AS AN UPPER TROUGH VACATES THE NORTHEAST U.S. DURING THE FIRST HALF
   OF THE PERIOD...A SECOND TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ADVANCING ACROSS THE
   ROCKIES TOWARD -- AND EVENTUALLY INTO -- THE PLAINS.  AN ASSOCIATED
   SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL LIKEWISE CROSS THE PLAINS MONDAY...REACHING
   A POSITION FROM THE WRN UPPER GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO TX BY THE END OF
   THE PERIOD.

   ...TX SOUTH PLAINS AND ADJACENT AREAS...
   MODEST DESTABILIZATION /AOB 500 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE/ IS EXPECTED
   TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE PEAK HEATING PERIOD AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD
   FRONT -- EXPECTED TO BE CROSSING WRN OK/NWRN TX DURING THE
   AFTERNOON.  ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT
   -- THOUGH IN A ZONE A BIT FARTHER S THAN WAS HIGHLIGHTED IN PRIOR
   FORECASTS.

   AS 50 KT SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW SPREADS ACROSS THIS AREA AHEAD OF THE
   ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH...SHEAR BECOMING INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF
   ORGANIZED STORMS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT ONE OR TWO STRONGER CELLS
   MAY EVOLVE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  THUS...WILL
   MAINTAIN A %5 PROBABILITY/MARGINAL RISK AREA CENTERED OVER THE TX
   SOUTH PLAINS REGION TO COVER LOW-END HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL.

   ..GOSS.. 11/02/2014

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z