May 28, 2016 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat May 28 05:59:29 UTC 2016 (20160528 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20160528 0600Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160528 0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 21,856 736,914 Lubbock, TX...Amarillo, TX...Plainview, TX...Pampa, TX...Hereford, TX...
MARGINAL 208,137 17,113,776 Detroit, MI...Indianapolis, IN...Cleveland, OH...Toledo, OH...Fort Wayne, IN...
Probabilistic Graphic
20160528 0600 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 21,856 736,914 Lubbock, TX...Amarillo, TX...Plainview, TX...Pampa, TX...Hereford, TX...
5 % 208,270 17,154,137 Detroit, MI...Indianapolis, IN...Cleveland, OH...Toledo, OH...Fort Wayne, IN...
   SPC AC 280559

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1259 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

   VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR THE TX PANHANDLE AND TX
   SOUTH PLAINS/CAPROCK...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SERN CO/SWRN KS SWD INTO
   ERN NM/WRN OK AND SWRN TX...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL AND
   SRN GREAT LAKES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
   AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
   AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FROM THE
   MID-UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO SRN
   CANADA.  A SURFACE LOW OVER SRN CANADA IS FORECAST TO MIGRATE NEWD
   TOWARDS JAMES BAY WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE
   GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY.  FARTHER W...A WEAK MID-LEVEL LOW WILL
   MOVE ONLY SLOWLY EWD ACROSS SRN CA AND A LEAD IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO
   MOVE INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BY LATE IN THE DAY.  

   ...SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO SWRN KS/SERN CO...
   A LEE TROUGH AND THE WESTWARD RETREAT OF THE DRYLINE INTO THE WRN
   PORTIONS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASINGLY
   MOIST SELY LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW INTO ERN NM/W TX.  STRONG HEATING
   AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 1000 J/KG MLCAPE
   FROM THE CO/KS/OK REGION TO 2500 J/KG ACROSS PARTS OF W TX.  WHILE
   MID-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE MODEST /20-30 KT/...SELY LOW-LEVEL
   WINDS VEERING TO WLY IN THE MID LEVELS WILL RESULT IN 30-40 KT
   EFFECTIVE SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS WITH AN INITIAL
   HAIL/WIND THREAT.  MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES ISOLATED TO WIDELY
   SCATTERED STORMS WILL FORM W/NW NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
   SPREAD/DEVELOP SEWD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS A SLY
   LLJ STRENGTHENS TO 35 KT BY 03Z.  UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A STORM
   CLUSTER IS EXPECTED BY EARLY-MID EVENING WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR
   SEVERE GUSTS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE INTO ADJACENT
   PORTIONS OF FAR WRN OK AND THE TX S PLAINS.  LESS CONFIDENCE EXISTS
   ATTM IN STORM COVERAGE FARTHER S OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN AND SW TX. 
   IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES FOR HIGHER STORM COVERAGE...HIGHER SEVERE
   PROBABILITIES MAY BE WARRANTED IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

   ...CNTRL/SRN GREAT LAKES...
   A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY
   AS SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAINTAINS A FETCH OF 60S DEG F DEWPOINTS. 
   WEAK MID-LEVEL ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH WILL OVERSPREAD A
   DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR.  MODERATE BUOYANCY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
   SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 
   CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MODEST AND SUPPORT A
   MULTICELLULAR MODE.  ISOLD LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS WILL LIKELY BE
   THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS BEFORE THIS ACTIVITY
   WEAKENS DURING THE EVENING.

   ...CAROLINAS COAST...
   T.D. TWO OFF THE SERN U.S. COAST WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE CAROLINA
   COAST DURING THE DAY.  WEAK BUOYANCY/WIND PROFILE WILL LIKELY
   PRECLUDE A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WITH CONVECTION THAT MOVES ASHORE.
   PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECASTS REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE
   DEVELOPING TROPICAL SYSTEM.

   ..SMITH.. 05/28/2016

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z