Sioux Falls, SD...Duluth, MN...Maple Grove, MN...St. Cloud, MN...Andover, MN...
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Sioux Falls, SD...St. Cloud, MN...Andover, MN...Norfolk, NE...Champlin, MN...
SPC AC 220548
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
NEBRASKA NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible from central Nebraska
northeastward to central Minnesota Saturday afternoon and evening.
A slowly evolving large-scale pattern -- characterized by a longwave
trough in the West and a ridge in the east -- will remain in place
throughout the day Saturday. Between these two systems, strong,
meridionally oriented mid-level flow will persist from the southern
Rockies/High Plains northward to the Dakotas and Minnesota.
At the surface, a weak low located over northeastern Colorado will
move very little throughout the day. A stationary front will extend
northeast from the low into central Minnesota, while a weak lee
trough extends southward across eastern New Mexico. Ahead of these
surface features, a modified maritime airmass (characterized by 50s
and 60s F dewpoints) will be maintained by a broad area of southerly
flow on the western periphery of an anticyclone centered over the
...Central Nebraska northeastward to central Minnesota...
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms should be ongoing in the
early morning just west of the MRGL area, and should increase
throughout the day as a result of 1) sustained surface convergence
along the stationary front, and 2) warming surface temperatures,
which should boost MUCAPE into the 2000+ J/kg range despite modest
(~7 C/km) mid-level lapse rates. 20-30 kt deep shear just ahead of
the front should support loosely organized storm clusters and linear
segments capable of isolated damaging wind gusts -- especially where
storms can migrate through a sufficiently warm pre-convective
airmass. This isolated threat should wane after dark with the loss
of surface heating.
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z