Nov 5, 2017 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Nov 5 05:53:57 UTC 2017 (20171105 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20171105 0600Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20171105 0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20171105 0600 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 050553

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1253 AM CDT Sun Nov 05 2017

   Valid 061200Z - 071200Z


   Thunderstorms are expected from parts of southern New England and
   the Mid-Atlantic into the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys, Mid-South, and
   Ozarks on Monday. Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely.

   Fast/weakly cyclonic flow aloft is forecast to prevail across the
   majority of the U.S. Monday, south and east of positively tilted
   troughing extending from central Canada west-southwest across the
   northern Intermountain region.  

   At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move quickly eastward
   across the Northeast and Mid Atlantic region, and should shift
   offshore during the evening.  Meanwhile, trailing parts of the front
   should drift much more slowly southward across the Tennessee and
   Lower Mississippi Valleys and southern Plains.

   Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing ahead of the
   front, though weak instability will prevail over the warm sector,
   precluding appreciable risk for severe weather.  Farther south,
   greater moisture will be present near the boundary, but combination
   of weak lapse rates/modest CAPE and a lack of ascent near the
   largely non-convergent west-to-east front suggests that any
   convection will remain weak.  Finally, low-level warm advection
   associated with a southwesterly low-level jet may provide sufficient
   ascent atop the front -- particularly across the Ozarks/Arklatex
   region -- to support elevated convection, mainly during the second
   half of the period.  However, lack of sufficient CAPE suggests that
   storms will remain sub-severe.

   ..Goss.. 11/05/2017