May 4, 2016 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed May 4 05:27:19 UTC 2016 (20160504 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20160504 0600Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160504 0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 47,564 1,056,747 Spokane, WA...Lewiston, ID...Walla Walla, WA...Opportunity, WA...Pullman, WA...
Probabilistic Graphic
20160504 0600 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 47,834 1,037,070 Spokane, WA...Lewiston, ID...Walla Walla, WA...Opportunity, WA...Pullman, WA...
   SPC AC 040527

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1227 AM CDT WED MAY 04 2016

   VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW STRONG STORMS...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL...ARE
   EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
   ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
   HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WESTERN US AND OVER THE EASTERN US BENEATH
   AN UPPER LOW.

   ...NORTHERN ROCKIES...

   UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO HOLD ACROSS THE ERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS
   REGION DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD AS A STRONG UPPER LOW EASES SLOWLY
   INTO SRN CALIFORNIA.  LATEST DATA DOES NOT SUGGEST ANY MEANINGFUL
   SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL TOP THE RIDGE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES THURSDAY
   BUT MODEST BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING IS EXPECTED. 
   ADDITIONALLY...CORRIDOR OF .75-.90 INCH PW PLUME SHOULD EXTEND
   ACROSS THIS REGION WHICH SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ROBUST
   UPDRAFTS BY PEAK HEATING.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS ERN WA/NRN ID
   AND WRN MT SUGGEST 1000-1500 J/KG SBCAPE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THIS
   REGION WHERE DEEP SLY FLOW AND BULK SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 35KT
   SHOULD AID CONVECTION.  FOR THESE REASONS HAVE ADDED A CAT1 SEVERE
   THREAT TO ACCOUNT FOR GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

   ...ELSEWHERE...

   SMALL HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY STORMS ACROSS CA DURING THE AFTERNOON
   HOURS.  COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES BENEATH AN UPPER LOW SHOULD
   STEEPEN LAPSE RATES ACROSS THIS REGION AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS ARE
   EXPECTED DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SIERRA
   NEVADA.

   SCT THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID DAY ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC/CAROLINA REGION. 
   COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES BENEATH AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THIS REGION
   WILL ALSO FAVOR A FEW ROBUST UPDRAFTS THAT COULD GENERATE SMALL
   HAIL.  HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUGGEST SUFFICIENT
   INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION FOR A MEANINGFUL SEVERE THREAT.

   ..DARROW.. 05/04/2016

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z