Jul 3, 2015 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Jul 3 05:45:37 UTC 2015 (20150703 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20150703 0600Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20150703 0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 365,839 7,785,009 New Orleans, LA...Baton Rouge, LA...Reno, NV...Jackson, MS...Metairie, LA...
Probabilistic Graphic
20150703 0600 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 365,865 7,784,996 New Orleans, LA...Baton Rouge, LA...Reno, NV...Jackson, MS...Metairie, LA...
   SPC AC 030545

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1245 AM CDT FRI JUL 03 2015

   VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SATURDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE
   LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
   ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SATURDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY
   NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN MONTANA AND NORTH DAKOTA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED STRONG STORMS MAY POSE SOME RISK FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND
   HAIL ON SATURDAY...THE 4TH OF JULY...ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THE GREAT BASIN...AND
   ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MONTANA AND NORTH DAKOTA.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   EAST OF THE ROCKIES...THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES MAY RETREAT A BIT
   BACK TO THE NORTH...AT LEAST INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S....DURING
   THIS PERIOD.  BUT SUBTROPICAL RIDGING APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN
   SUPPRESSED...WITH BROAD WEAK UPPER TROUGHING LINGERING ALONG ITS
   NORTHERN PERIPHERY...FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST. 
   AT THE SAME TIME...A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITHIN THE
   WESTERLIES IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY TURN EASTWARD ACROSS THE
   CANADIAN PRAIRIES...AND EAST SOUTH EAST OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. 
   AND WHILE A WEAK CLOSED LOW...EMERGING FROM THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN
   PACIFIC...SLOWLY SHIFTS NORTHWARD TO THE WEST OF THE CALIFORNIA
   COAST...AT LEAST ONE SUBSTANTIVE IMPULSE MAY MIGRATE NORTHEAST OF
   THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA...AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
   HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO.

   ASSOCIATED WITH THIS REGIME...STEEP LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE
   RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE GREAT BASIN/
   ROCKIES AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE PLAINS.  SEASONABLY STRONG SHEAR
   WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MONTANA AND NORTH
   DAKOTA...AS THE BASE OF THE WESTERN CANADIAN TROUGH APPROACHES LATE
   IN THE PERIOD...AND BENEATH MODEST NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW
   DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH
   PLAINS.  A MID-LEVEL SPEED MAXIMUM WITHIN LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW
   ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES COULD ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO MODEST
   SHEAR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

   ...LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
   A SOUTHWARD/SOUTH SOUTHWESTWARD ADVANCING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY MAY PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT...AS EARLY AS MID DAY SATURDAY...INTO SATURDAY EVENING. 
   STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING ALONG AND TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THIS
   FEATURE MAY CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATELY LARGE CAPE IN THE PRESENCE OF
   SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT.  PERHAPS AIDED BY FORCING AND
   AFOREMENTIONED MODEST SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A DIGGING UPPER
   IMPULSE...ONE OR TWO CLUSTERS OF STORMS MAY EVOLVE.  THESE COULD BE
   ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR LOCALIZED POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS.

   ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
   MID/UPPER FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT REMAINS UNCLEAR... BUT
   WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS POSSIBLE
   NEAR THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH...AS HEATING WEAKENS INHIBITION AND
   CONTRIBUTES TO MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2000 J/KG BY LATE
   SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG DEEP LAYER VERTICAL
   SHEAR BENEATH MODEST NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW...CONVECTION THAT
   DOES DEVELOP WILL DO SO IN AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE TO ORGANIZED
   SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS.

   ...GREAT BASIN...
   CONSIDERABLE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
   AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING...AIDED BY FORCING FOR LARGE-SCALE
   ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER IMPULSE...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
   BECOMES STRONGLY HEATED...DEEPLY MIXED...AND CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK
   TO MODERATE CAPE.  THIS ENVIRONMENT PROBABLY WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO AT
   LEAST A FEW LOCALIZED STRONG DOWNBURSTS BEFORE STORMS WEAKEN
   SATURDAY NIGHT.

   ...NORTHERN MONTANA INTO NORTHERN DAKOTA...
   TIMING OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTHWARD
   ADVANCING FRONT...AND STRENGTHENING VERTICAL SHEAR...DOES NOT APPEAR
   OPTIMAL...AS IT MAY BE MOSTLY AFTER SUNSET SATURDAY EVENING. 
   HOWEVER...AIDED BY LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
   APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...VIGOROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT THAT COULD
   POSE A RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL AND WIND DOES NOT APPEAR OUT OF THE
   QUESTION BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

   ..KERR.. 07/03/2015

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z