Jul 28, 2015 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Jul 28 06:00:29 UTC 2015 (20150728 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20150728 0600Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20150728 0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 268,599 39,435,772 Detroit, MI...Indianapolis, IN...Columbus, OH...Memphis, TN...Nashville, TN...
Probabilistic Graphic
20150728 0600 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 269,624 39,541,399 Detroit, MI...Indianapolis, IN...Columbus, OH...Memphis, TN...Nashville, TN...
   SPC AC 280600

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0100 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

   VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST/TN VALLEY
   AND SOUTHEAST STATES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
   GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST TO SOUTHEAST STATES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A PROGRESSIVE BELT OF WESTERLIES WILL BE LARGELY RELEGATED TO THE
   FAR NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS/GREAT LAKES INTO CANADA ON
   WEDNESDAY...WITH A PROMINENT UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD
   OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND THE ADJACENT GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT
   WILL ADVANCE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
   REGION/MIDWEST/TN VALLEY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

   ...GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST AND OH VALLEY...
   THE STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL GENERALLY SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD
   AWAY FROM THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WITH NEAR-FRONTAL MASS
   CONVERGENCE TENDING TO WEAKEN DURING THE DAY. EVEN SO...WEAK TO
   MODERATE DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MAY LEAD TO SOME
   STRONG/SEVERE RISK WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH EARLY-DAY
   CONVECTION/CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/PARTS OF THE MIDWEST
   SHOULD PRECLUDE MORE CERTAIN DESTABILIZATION/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT. SOMEWHAT STRONGER DESTABILIZATION SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS
   PARTS OF THE OH RIVER VALLEY...WITH AT LEAST WIDELY
   SCATTERED/DIURNALLY INTENSIFYING THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
   WHERE SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION OCCURS...SOME OF THE STRONGEST
   STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING MAY BE CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED
   WIND DAMAGE. 

   ...TN VALLEY/SOUTHEAST STATES...
   MODESTLY ENHANCED NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL WINDS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
   REGION IN BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND UPPER
   LOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
   ENVIRONMENT...THUNDERSTORMS MAY DIURNALLY INTENSIFY/SPREAD GENERALLY
   SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY/TN
   VALLEY...IN ADDITION TO OTHER SOUTHEAST STATES SUCH AS
   MS/AL/GA/NORTH FL. DOWNBURSTS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL
   BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
   EVENING.

   ...SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS/SOUTHERN ROCKIES/LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...
   A FEW STRONGER PULSE-TYPE THUNDERSTORMS COULD POTENTIALLY OCCUR
   ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN ROCKIES/LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY AND PERHAPS
   SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
   HOWEVER...REGIMES CHARACTERIZED BY VERY WEAK FORCING/VERTICAL SHEAR
   CURRENTLY PRECLUDE SEVERE PROBABILITIES...WITH ANY SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE VERY MARGINAL/LOCALIZED.

   ..GUYER.. 07/28/2015

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z