Nov 1, 2015 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Nov 1 05:45:22 UTC 2015 (20151101 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20151101 0600Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20151101 0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 36,841 3,650,805 Columbia, SC...Macon, GA...Warner Robins, GA...Sumter, SC...Summerville, SC...
Probabilistic Graphic
20151101 0600 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 36,841 3,650,805 Columbia, SC...Macon, GA...Warner Robins, GA...Sumter, SC...Summerville, SC...
   SPC AC 010545

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1245 AM CDT SUN NOV 01 2015

   VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS CNTRL GA TO MOST OF SC...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE FROM CENTRAL
   GEORGIA ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH CAROLINA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD DAMPEN AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE DEEP
   SOUTH TO THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH EARLY TUE. ASSOCIATED
   SURFACE CYCLONE SHOULD UNDERGO CYCLOLYSIS AS IT SHIFTS FROM CNTRL AL
   TOWARDS SC ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT. IN THE WEST...A
   FULL-LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP BY TUE MORNING AS A
   VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE IMPULSE REACHES THE SRN GREAT BASIN.

   ...CNTRL GA AND SC...
   WHILE THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM WILL BE IN A DECAYING STATE...MODEL
   PROGS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THE RATE OF DECAY. MOST PROGS MAINTAIN
   A BELT OF MODERATE TO STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL SWLYS ACROSS THE NRN
   PERIPHERY OF UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS THROUGH MON
   EVENING. WITH PRONOUNCED DIFFERENTIAL HEATING PROGGED ALONG THE
   QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT...MODEST FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD BE
   SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW TSTM CLUSTERS FORMING IN THE AFTERNOON.
   ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO SHOULD BE THE MAIN
   HAZARDS. POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OWING TO RELATIVELY WARM
   TEMPERATURES ALOFT...IN CONJUNCTION WITH WEAKENING CONVERGENCE ALONG
   THE COLD FRONT...SHOULD DETER SUSTENANCE OF STRONG CONVECTION WITH
   SRN EXTENT.

   ..GRAMS.. 11/01/2015

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z