May 23, 2015 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat May 23 06:23:05 UTC 2015 (20150523 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20150523 0600Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20150523 0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 108,993 20,314,090 Houston, TX...San Antonio, TX...Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Fort Worth, TX...
MARGINAL 499,316 26,257,685 Memphis, TN...Oklahoma City, OK...Kansas City, MO...Omaha, NE...Tulsa, OK...
Probabilistic Graphic
20150523 0600 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 109,099 20,272,191 Houston, TX...San Antonio, TX...Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Fort Worth, TX...
5 % 500,560 26,515,167 Memphis, TN...Oklahoma City, OK...Kansas City, MO...Omaha, NE...Tulsa, OK...
   SPC AC 230623

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0123 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

   VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH
   TEXAS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE
   CENTRAL PLAINS...

   CORRECTED PROBABILITY GRAPHIC.

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
   SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY.  THE STRONGEST CONVECTION WILL
   LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH TEXAS WHERE LARGE
   HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED.
    ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED HAIL AND WIND MAY ACCOMPANY STRONG CONVECTION
   FROM PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL
   PLAINS.

   ...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...

   BROAD BUT WEAK 12HR HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD INTO THE SRN/CNTRL
   PLAINS SUNDAY AHEAD OF LOW-LATITUDE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH.  LATEST MODEL
   GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT EJECTING A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH INTO THE
   MAIN BODY OF TX BY 24/18Z...THEN NEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY DURING
   THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  EXTREMELY HIGH PW VALUES...RANGING FROM 1.75-2
   INCHES...WILL SURGE NWD AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FROM THE WRN GULF
   BASIN...NWD INTO ERN KS.  NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD
   OF THE SHORT WAVE WITHIN MODESTLY SHEARED BUT WEAK LAPSE RATE
   ENVIRONMENT.  MUCH OF THE CONVECTION WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY
   RAINFALL AND EXTENSIVE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING. 
   ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR THE DRY LINE...BUT WITHIN POST SHORT WAVE
   REGIME.  LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE GREATEST
   SHEAR/INSTABILITY COMBINATION WILL BE ACROSS CNTRL/SRN TX PRIOR TO
   LARGE SCALE FORCING EJECTING NORTH INTO THE MID MS VALLEY.  GREATEST
   SEVERE RISK WILL BE ACROSS THIS REGION FOR TSTM ACTIVITY THAT
   EVOLVES ALONG SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WITHIN BASE OF
   EJECTING TROUGH.  ISOLATED SUPERCELLS COULD PRODUCE LARGE
   HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES.  IT/S NOT CLEAR
   IF ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY LINE DURING
   THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AND FOR THIS REASON 5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBS
   WILL BE MAINTAINED.

   FARTHER NORTH ACROSS NEBRASKA...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN
   SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BENEATH SEASONALLY WEAK MID-LEVEL SLY 500MB
   FLOW.  A FEW SLOW-MOVING SUPERCELLS COULD EVOLVE ACROSS THIS REGION
   THAT WOULD POSE A RISK OF LARGE HAIL.

   ..DARROW.. 05/23/2015

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z