Aug 25, 2016 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Aug 25 04:47:54 UTC 2016 (20160825 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20160825 0600Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160825 0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 127,506 4,535,111 Kansas City, MO...Wichita, KS...Overland Park, KS...Kansas City, KS...Topeka, KS...
Probabilistic Graphic
20160825 0600 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 126,388 4,324,700 Kansas City, MO...Wichita, KS...Overland Park, KS...Kansas City, KS...Topeka, KS...
   SPC AC 250447

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1147 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016

   VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM KS INTO WRN MO...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH
   PLAINS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
   WITH AN ISOLATED EARLY STORM OR TWO ACROSS MAINE BEFORE THE FRONT
   MOVES OFFSHORE. BEHIND THIS TROUGH...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED
   OVER THE GREAT LAKES PROVIDING COOL AND STABLE AIR. TO THE W...A
   BROAD BUT WEAKER UPPER TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE
   PLAINS...WITH A BELT OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT MOVING FROM THE CNTRL
   PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SFC...A
   STALLED BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND FROM THE MID MS VALLEY SWWD ACROSS KS.
   A POCKET OF MODERATE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE
   CNTRL PLAINS WHICH MAY SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS DURING THE
   AFTERNOON. FARTHER W...UPSLOPE FLOW AND A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
   OVER ERN WY WILL SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DURING THE
   AFTERNOON.

   ...NRN HIGH PLAINS...
   COOL MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL EXIST OVER THE REGION WHICH WILL
   COMBINE WITH 50S F DEWPOINTS AND HEATING TO CREATE A MARGINALLY
   UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. THE COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND MODEST WLY FLOW
   ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS IN A RELATIVELY
   NARROW CORRIDOR BEFORE CAPPING INCREASING AFTER SUNSET.

   ...KS AND SURROUNDING AREAS...
   AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING FRIDAY MORNING
   ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
   AND LENDS UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON
   DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LATER IN THE DAY. AREAS OF HEATING WILL LEAD TO
   MODERATE DESTABILIZATION WITH MID TO UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS IN
   PLACE...AND SHEAR WILL BE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CELLS
   OR SMALL BOWS WITH 30 TO 50 KT MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THUS...WIND
   AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT SEVERE STORMS MAY
   BE QUITE ISOLATED ACROSS THE REGION.

   ..JEWELL.. 08/25/2016

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z