Sep 25, 2016 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Sep 25 05:54:45 UTC 2016 (20160925 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20160925 0600Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160925 0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 34,787 4,768,081 Pittsburgh, PA...Charleston, WV...Mount Lebanon, PA...Bethel Park, PA...Parkersburg, WV...
Probabilistic Graphic
20160925 0600 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 34,787 4,765,590 Pittsburgh, PA...Charleston, WV...Mount Lebanon, PA...Bethel Park, PA...Parkersburg, WV...
   SPC AC 250554

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1254 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016

   VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER OH
   VALLEY/APPALACHIANS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR MONDAY ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND NEARBY APPALACHIANS
   VICINITY.

   ...UPPER OH RIVER VALLEY/APPALACHIANS VICINITY INCLUDING WV/PA...
   AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY CLOSED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
   AND ONTARIO ON MONDAY...WITH A RELATED STEADY STRENGTHENING OF
   DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION IN CONJUNCTION WITH
   AN EAST/NORTHEASTWARD PIVOT OF THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. AS THIS
   OCCURS...MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING WILL PRECEDE AN EASTWARD-MOVING
   COLD FRONT...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF NEAR 60F SURFACE DEWPOINTS
   REACHING AS FAR NORTH-NORTHEAST AS FAR EASTERN OH/WESTERN PA WITHIN
   A RELATIVELY NARROW PRE-FRONTAL MOIST CORRIDOR. 

   WHILE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE STEEP AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
   EARLY-DAY CLOUD COVER/SCATTERED PRECIPITATION CASTS UNCERTAINTY...IT
   APPEARS THAT AT LEAST WEAK PRE-FRONTAL DESTABILIZATION SHOULD OCCUR
   WITHIN THE NARROW WARM/MOIST SECTOR WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. IN THE
   PRESENCE OF AMPLE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND INCREASINGLY STRONG
   DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS /STRENGTHENING TO 50+ KT AT 500
   MB/...LINEAR BANDS OF CONVECTION SHOULD EVOLVE/INTENSIFY MONDAY
   AFTERNOON WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE THROUGH THE
   EARLY EVENING HOURS.

   ...TN VALLEY/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO FL...
   THESE REGIONS WILL BE REMOVED FROM THE STRONGER HEIGHT
   FALLS/DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...BUT A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS MAY
   NONETHELESS ALLOW FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON...EITHER
   SEMI-FOCUSED NEAR THE ADVANCING FRONT ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/SOUTHERN
   APPALACHIANS OR WITH SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS ACROSS THE FL
   PENINSULA. LOCALLY STRONGER WIND GUSTS BE THE MAIN POTENTIAL.

   ..GUYER.. 09/25/2016

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z