Oct 20, 2014 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Oct 20 05:45:01 UTC 2014 (20141020 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20141020 0600Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20141020 0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20141020 0600 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 200545

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1245 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

   VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE INTERIOR
   WEST...WESTERN AND SOUTHERN TEXAS...SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
   PENINSULA...AND PERHAPS NEAR SOUTHERN COASTAL NEW ENGLAND.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH INITIALLY OVER INTERIOR ORE AND THE WRN
   GREAT BASIN TUESDAY MORNING WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE NRN
   INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND INTO MT/WY TUESDAY NIGHT.  FARTHER E...A
   LARGE MID-UPPER TROUGH OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE ERN STATES WILL
   EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY
   TUESDAY NIGHT.  

   IN THE LOW LEVELS...A LEE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS
   DURING THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS EWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   ID...NRN UT...AND WRN WY BY EARLY EVENING.  ELSEWHERE...A STOUT
   SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NRN GULF OF
   MEXICO AND AN AREA OF BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER PARTS
   OF THE NERN U.S. AND ADJACENT WRN ATLANTIC WATERS.  

   ...NRN UT/SERN ID...
   MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT TIMING DIFFERENCES IN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   MOVING ACROSS THIS REGION.  THE FASTER SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF
   CONTINUES TO BE FAVORED VERSUS A SLOWER SOLUTION /NAM/.  DESPITE THE
   MODEL TIMING VARIABILITY...MARGINAL BUOYANCY /FEW HUNDRED SBCAPE/
   AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO PRIMARILY DEVELOP NEAR AN
   EWD-SWEEPING COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY.  STRONG MID-LEVEL WINDS LEND
   THE POSSIBILITY FOR A CONVECTIVELY-GENERATED STRONG WIND GUST OR TWO
   AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL WITH A STRONGER STORM.

   ...SRN COASTAL NEW ENGLAND...
   A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NY AND INTO THE DELMARVA REGION
   WILL DEVELOP ESEWD AND CENTER NEAR THE NJ COAST BY NIGHTFALL WITH A
   TONGUE OF MID 50S DEWPOINTS REACHING THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS OF
   RI/MA AROUND MIDDAY.  A BAND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER
   THE COASTAL WATERS E OF LONG ISLAND AND PERHAPS GLANCE COASTAL MA
   BEFORE MOVING EWD INTO THE ATLANTIC.

   ..SMITH.. 10/20/2014

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z