Sep 22, 2017 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Sep 22 05:48:44 UTC 2017 (20170922 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20170922 0600Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20170922 0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 57,312 2,103,378 Sioux Falls, SD...Duluth, MN...Maple Grove, MN...St. Cloud, MN...Andover, MN...
Probabilistic Graphic
20170922 0600 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 56,781 1,961,853 Sioux Falls, SD...St. Cloud, MN...Andover, MN...Norfolk, NE...Champlin, MN...
   SPC AC 220548

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1248 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

   Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
   NEBRASKA NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible from central Nebraska
   northeastward to central Minnesota Saturday afternoon and evening.

   ...Synopsis...
   A slowly evolving large-scale pattern -- characterized by a longwave
   trough in the West and a ridge in the east -- will remain in place
   throughout the day Saturday.  Between these two systems, strong,
   meridionally oriented mid-level flow will persist from the southern
   Rockies/High Plains northward to the Dakotas and Minnesota.

   At the surface, a weak low located over northeastern Colorado will
   move very little throughout the day.  A stationary front will extend
   northeast from the low into central Minnesota, while a weak lee
   trough extends southward across eastern New Mexico.  Ahead of these
   surface features, a modified maritime airmass (characterized by 50s
   and 60s F dewpoints) will be maintained by a broad area of southerly
   flow on the western periphery of an anticyclone centered over the
   Great Lakes.

   ...Central Nebraska northeastward to central Minnesota...
   Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms should be ongoing in the
   early morning just west of the MRGL area, and should increase
   throughout the day as a result of 1) sustained surface convergence
   along the stationary front, and 2) warming surface temperatures,
   which should boost MUCAPE into the 2000+ J/kg range despite modest
   (~7 C/km) mid-level lapse rates.  20-30 kt deep shear just ahead of
   the front should support loosely organized storm clusters and linear
   segments capable of isolated damaging wind gusts -- especially where
   storms can migrate through a sufficiently warm pre-convective
   airmass.  This isolated threat should wane after dark with the loss
   of surface heating.

   ..Cook.. 09/22/2017

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z