Nov 22, 2017 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Nov 22 04:44:36 UTC 2017 (20171122 0700Z Day 2 shapefile | 20171122 0700Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20171122 0700 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20171122 0700 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 220444

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1044 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

   Valid 231200Z - 241200Z


   A few general thunderstorms are expected across the Florida
   Peninsula on Thursday.

   ...FL Peninsula...
   The main impetus and focus for thunderstorm development Thursday and
   Thursday night will be a slow-moving upper-level trough over the
   Gulf of Mexico.  A weak area of low pressure will gradually develop
   from the central into the eastern Gulf with moist low-level
   trajectories emanating from the northwest Caribbean into the FL
   Peninsula vicinity.  Buoyancy is forecast to lessen with northward
   extent away from the Gulf Stream/FL Straits.  The latest NAM
   (22/00Z) showed a slightly stronger PV anomaly encroaching on the FL
   Gulf Coast during the overnight hours.  Concurrent with this
   feature, stronger low-level mass response was depicted.  However,
   time-lagged versions of the GFS, ECMWF, CMC, and UKMET all show a
   weaker low-level response.  It seems plausible based on the NAM and
   a few convection-allowing models with NAM input that some risk for a
   strong thunderstorm or two would be possible over the Keys,
   Everglades, and perhaps along the immediate Gulf Coast south of
   Tampa Bay.  Yet, this scenario seems unlikely given the model
   variability/consensus.  For these reasons, will maintain a less than
   5-percent severe risk for this outlook update.

   ..Smith.. 11/22/2017