Feb 22, 2018 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Feb 22 06:33:49 UTC 2018 (20180222 0700Z Day 2 shapefile | 20180222 0700Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20180222 0700 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20180222 0700 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 220633

   Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1233 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

   Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   CORRECTED FOR GENERAL THUNDERSTORM GRAPHIC

   ...SUMMARY...
   Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected from a portion of the
   Southern Plains to the lower and middle Mississippi and Ohio Valley
   regions Friday.

   ...Discussion...

   Upper pattern will remain characterized by a synoptic trough over
   the western U.S. and a downstream low-amplitude ridge in the east.
   Weak vorticity maxima embedded within the broad southwesterly flow
   regime will interact with baroclinic zone that should initially
   extend from south TX into the OH Valley. Most thunderstorms should
   remain confined to zone of isentropic ascent and weak instability on
   cool side of this front. Deep convection will struggle to develop in
   warm sector due to weak forcing and a very marginal thermodynamic
   environment with warming temperatures aloft. However a few lightning
   strikes cannot be ruled out with showers that might initiate in
   confluence zone from southern LA into southern MS.

   ..Dial.. 02/22/2018

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z