Mar 8, 2015 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Mar 8 05:17:06 UTC 2015 (20150308 0700Z Day 2 shapefile | 20150308 0700Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20150308 0700 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20150308 0700 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 080517

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1117 PM CST SAT MAR 07 2015

   VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM EASTERN TEXAS INTO
   LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
   OTHER WEAK STORMS ARE LIKELY DURING THE DAYTIME ACROSS NEW MEXICO.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A SLOW-MOVING WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE SRN ROCKIES
   INTO THE SRN PLAINS WITH LEADING SHORTWAVE EJECTING NEWD ACROSS TX
   AND INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIST AT THE
   SURFACE OVER MOST OF THE CONUS...A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL
   DEVELOP OVER ERN TX INTO LA LATE IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH...SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

   ELSEWHERE...COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME
   HEATING TO PRODUCED ISOLATED WEAK STORMS OVER PARTS OF SRN NM DURING
   THE DAY.

   ...ERN TX INTO LA...
   GRADUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF THE
   SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS SERN TX INTO LA...WITH MID 60S F DEWPOINTS
   LIKELY OVERNIGHT. OVERALL...LAPSE RATE PROFILES WILL BE
   POOR...RESULTING IN ONLY WEAK AREAS OF INSTABILITY. WHILE WARM
   ADVECTION WIND PROFILES WILL EXIST...SHEAR WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY
   IMPRESSIVE ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE WEAK INSTABILITY. IN
   ADDITION...THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF RAIN. THUS...SEVERE
   WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

   ..JEWELL.. 03/08/2015

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z