Mar 1, 2015 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Mar 1 07:00:43 UTC 2015 (20150301 0700Z Day 2 shapefile | 20150301 0700Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20150301 0700 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20150301 0700 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 010700

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0100 AM CST SUN MAR 01 2015

   VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON 
   MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE ARK-LA-TEX AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA
   INTO ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN MISSOURI...AND FAR WESTERN TENNESSEE. 
   ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
   EARLY MONDAY ACROSS A SMALL PART OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...AND INTO
   THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND WESTERN ARIZONA MONDAY
   AFTERNOON.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A STRONG MID-UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED FROM THE GULF OF
   MEXICO INTO THE WRN CARIBBEAN.  HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ACROSS
   MUCH OF THE ERN HALF OF THE U.S. IN THE WAKE OF A TROUGH MOVING
   THROUGH THE NERN STATES AND DEPARTING THE NRN ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY
   AFTERNOON.  MEANWHILE...A BLOCKING RIDGE WILL REMAIN LOCATED WEST OF
   THE PACIFIC COAST.  A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY SSEWD ACROSS
   CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL STATES...WHILE A WEAKER TROUGH
   DEVELOPS SWD FROM THE WA/ORE COAST FORMING A CLOSED LOW JUST OFF THE
   SRN CA COAST BY 12Z TUESDAY.  THIS EVOLUTION WILL RESULT IN
   DISLODGING THE DAY 2 SRN CA TROUGH NEWD THROUGH THE SWRN STATES TO
   CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS /ERN CO TO WRN NEB/. 

   ...ERN OK/ARKLATEX TO SRN MO/WRN TN...
   SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN FROM CENTRAL AND
   EASTERN TX THROUGH ERN OK...THE OZARKS INTO ERN KS AND THE LOWER MO
   VALLEY.  THIS INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD BE THE GREATEST
   MONDAY NIGHT AS 60-90-METER HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR ACROSS OK TO THE
   LOWER MO VALLEY AHEAD OF THE EJECTING SRN CA TROUGH AND THE SSEWD
   MOVING CENTRAL CANADA TROUGH.  THIS WILL RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL
   LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC MOISTENING AND WARM-AIR ADVECTION WITH THESE
   FACTORS BEING GREATER ABOVE THE SURFACE.  A LARGE SURFACE
   HIGH-PRESSURE AREA WILL SHIFT EWD FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED
   STATES...THOUGH SURFACE TRAJECTORIES ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL STATES
   SHOULD NOT BECOME SLY UNTIL LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD WHEN A
   SURFACE LOW TRACKS FROM ERN CO INTO NWRN KS.  THE LACK OF GREATER
   BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTENING WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR PARCELS TO
   BECOME SURFACE-BASED WITH STRONGER DESTABILIZATION /MUCAPE OF
   100-200 J PER KG/ OCCURRING ABOVE THE SURFACE.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   SUGGEST MOST PARCELS SHOULD BE ROOTED AROUND 850 MB...THOUGH
   CONFIDENCE IN TSTM COVERAGE IS LOW GIVEN THE FORECAST PRESENCE OF A
   MIDLEVEL WARM LAYER.  HOWEVER...THE INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING
   AND WAA MONDAY NIGHT SUGGESTS PARCELS SHOULD BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE
   WARMER 700-MB TEMPERATURES TO SUPPORT ELEVATED TSTMS.

   ...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SRN CA...
   A LINGERING POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY ISOLATED TSTMS WILL EXIST ACROSS
   PRIMARILY THE COASTAL AREAS OF FAR SRN CA MONDAY MORNING INTO THE
   EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE A SRN CA SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS NEWD.  IF
   THE WRN WA/ORE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS MORE SWD THROUGH WRN CA
   INSTEAD OF OFFSHORE...THEN FORCING FOR ASCENT AND STEEPENING LAPSE
   RATES COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS COASTAL AREAS OF CENTRAL
   CA.  LATEST GUIDANCE TENDS TO FAVOR THE OFFSHORE TRACK...AND THUS
   WILL NOT INCLUDE A GENERAL TSTM AREA AT THIS TIME ALONG THE CENTRAL
   CA COAST.

   ...LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY INTO WRN AZ...
   THE COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES AND FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO
   THE SRN CA TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY AND AZ
   MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL SUPPORT DIURNALLY DRIVEN TSTMS...AS LAPSE
   RATES STEEPEN.

   ..PETERS.. 03/01/2015

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z