SPC AC 240542
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1142 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPR LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE CNTRL PLNS IS FCST TO OPEN INTO A WAVE
AND WEAKEN AS IT EJECTS INTO ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND NEW ENGLAND ON
WEDNESDAY. NEXT IN A SERIES OF IMPULSES...NOW OVER WCNTRL
ALBERTA...WILL DIG SEWD INTO THE MIDWEST BY 12Z THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...SUB-TROPICAL JET SUPPRESSED OVER CNTRL MEXICO AND THE
GULF BASIN WILL CARRY A DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD
FL.
INITIAL CDFNT TIED TO THE WEAKENING LEAD SYSTEM WILL BECOME
REINFORCED BY A NEW FRONT BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS NEW CP AIR
MASS WILL REACH THE OH/TN VLYS BY EARLY THURSDAY. TO THE S...AN OLD
FRONT SITUATED OVER CNTRL FL AND THE CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO WILL
VACILLATE AS SFC LOWS MIGRATE ENE ALONG IT. BY EARLY THURSDAY...THE
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SURGE SWD AS THE PRIMARY CYCLOGENESIS ZONE
BEGINS TO SHIFT OFF THE FL ATLC CST. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY.
...CNTRL/SRN FL...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE PD
ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN GULF BASIN AND PARTS OF PENINSULAR FL. THIS
WILL TEND TO REINFORCE THE RESIDUAL BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER CNTRL FL.
ALTHOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE IS VARIED ON INSTABILITY S OF THE
FRONT...PRIND THAT THE AIR MASS WILL MOISTEN WITH MLCAPES OF
1000-1500 J/KG OVER THE SRN THIRD OF THE STATE. MID-LVL LAPSE RATES
WILL LIKELY REMAIN POOR...BUT ADDITIONAL TSTMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
ALONG SRN FRINGES OF MORNING ACTIVITY AND/OR SEPARATELY IN THE FREE
WARM SECTOR AS THE SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCE APCHS THE REGION. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE FOR ISOLD AND BRIEF
ORGANIZED STORMS WITH PERHAPS DMGG WIND GUSTS.
..RACY.. 11/24/2009
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
|
