Mar 9, 2014 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Mar 9 05:26:47 UTC 2014 (20140309 0700Z Day 2 shapefile | 20140309 0700Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140309 0700 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20140309 0700 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 090524

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1124 PM CST SAT MAR 08 2014

   VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SOUTH TX...

   SHORT-RANGE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT REGARDING THE
   EVOLUTION OF UPPER LOW AS IT DIGS SEWD ACROSS NRN MEXICO INTO DEEP
   SOUTH TX BY 11/12Z.  SFC FLOW HAS TURNED NLY ACROSS ALL BUT THE SRN
   TIP OF TX LATE THIS EVENING AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE NOTED ALONG
   THE ENTIRE TX COAST BY SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING.  PRIMARY SFC
   BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT OFFSHORE AND REMAIN THERE
   THROUGH THE DAY2 PERIOD.

   WEAK LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE
   ASCENT/MOISTENING ACROSS THE GENERAL OUTLOOK AREA WITH BROAD UPPER
   DIFFLUENCE EXPECTED TO AID UVV ACROSS THIS REGION.  FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PARCELS LIFTED AROUND 900-850MB SHOULD YIELD
   MUCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 300 J/KG WITH MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   SUFFICIENT FOR DEEP CONVECTION.  FOR THIS REASON IT APPEARS SCT
   ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE NOTED OFF AND ON THROUGH THE PERIOD
   UNTIL UPPER LOW SHIFTS OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY3 PERIOD.

   ...NRN INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION...

   STEEP LAPSE RATES...ON THE ORDER OF 7 C/KM...SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS
   MUCH OF THE NRN INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION MONDAY.  DESPITE MEAGER
   MOISTURE ACROSS THIS REGION...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH
   DIGGING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SHOULD ENCOURAGE WEAK CONVECTION AND
   PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY AT PEAK OF DIURNAL HEATING.

   ..DARROW.. 03/09/2014

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z