Dec 10, 2016 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Dec 10 06:50:32 UTC 2016 (20161210 0700Z Day 2 shapefile | 20161210 0700Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20161210 0700 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20161210 0700 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 100650

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1250 AM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

   Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms may occur across parts of the lower and mid
   Mississippi and Ohio Valleys Sunday.  Showers and a few/occasional
   lightning strikes may also occur over portions of the coastal
   Pacific Northwest.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   Low-amplitude cyclonic flow aloft will reside over virtually the
   entire lower 48 states through the entire Day 2 (Sunday) period, as
   an embedded short-wave trough moves quickly eastward across the
   north-central U.S. and into the Upper Great Lakes region late.

   At the surface, a developing low over the upper Midwest during the
   afternoon should move northeast across the upper Great Lakes region
   ahead of the aforementioned upper trough, while a trailing cold
   front shifts eastward/southeastward across the
   Midwest/Ozarks/southern Plains with time.  Elsewhere, high pressure
   will generally prevail.

   ...LOWER AND MID MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEYS...
   A strong (70 kt.) south-southwesterly low-level jet is forecast
   ahead of the advancing upper short-wave trough, resulting in a broad
   zone of warm advection roughly atop the surface frontal zone.  As
   the low-level theta-e advection permits eventual development of weak
   elevated CAPE, showers and occasional/embedded thunderstorms are
   forecast to develop -- mainly during the second half of the period. 
   Despite strong shear, weak instability should preclude appreciable
   hail risk.

   ...PACIFIC NORTHWEST COASTAL AREAS...
   Cold air aloft and strong west-northwesterly flow through the lower
   half of the troposphere will support showers -- and likely
   occasional lightning -- along windward slopes of the higher terrain
   of western WA/western OR.  

   ...ELSEWHERE...
   Showers are forecast to increase through the period along the
   southeast U.S. coastal areas from FL to the Carolinas.  While a
   thunderstorm or two may also evolve across FL, most of the lightning
   risk should remain offshore.

   ..Goss.. 12/10/2016

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z