Mar 12, 2017 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Mar 12 05:07:15 UTC 2017 (20170312 0700Z Day 2 shapefile | 20170312 0700Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20170312 0700 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20170312 0700 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 120507

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1107 PM CST Sat Mar 11 2017

   Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Weak elevated thunderstorms are possible from the Appalachians to
   the east coast, with other isolated activity possible across parts
   of the central Gulf coast and Florida. A strong storm cannot totally
   be ruled out over far eastern North Carolina late Monday night.

   ...Synopsis...
   A potent shortwave trough will eject negatively tilted from the
   middle MS valley toward the Mid Atlantic, with weak surface low
   across the Ohio valley during the day. By Monday night, a secondary
   and deeper low will develop across far eastern NC and VA, with
   perhaps mid 50s dewpoints arriving across the outer banks. Mainly
   weak elevated instability will develop across the Mid Atlantic,
   supporting mainly non-severe thunderstorms. To the south, winds will
   quickly veer across FL but isolated weak showers/thunderstorms will
   be possible during the day.

   ...Eastern North Carolina, Virginia, Delmarva...
   Several hundred J/kg of MUCAPE is forecast by the NAM over the area
   Monday night as strong cooling aloft overspreads increasing theta-e
   in the 850-700 mb layer. The most likely outcome is for the
   immediate surface to be stable, especially from Virginia north.
   However, there is a low possibility of non-zero SBCAPE developing
   across far eastern North Carolina Monday night. This could result in
   a marginal severe wind or brief/weak tornado threat, but potential
   is currently too low and the most likely scenario is for the more
   unstable surface air to remain offshore. Still, given the degree of
   elevated instability and cool profiles at the surface, a few clicks
   of very small hail cannot be ruled out.

   ..Jewell.. 03/12/2017

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z