Jan 23, 2018 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Jan 23 05:55:47 UTC 2018 (20180123 0700Z Day 2 shapefile | 20180123 0700Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20180123 0700 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20180123 0700 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 230555

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1155 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

   Valid 241200Z - 251200Z


   A few thunderstorms will be possible across coastal areas of the
   Pacific Northwest from Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night.

   A progressive and amplified mid-upper level flow pattern is expected
   across the contiguous U.S. during this forecast period, as two
   shortwave troughs reinforce an eastern states longwave trough. 
   Meanwhile, an upper ridge will shift east of the Rockies as a large
   Pacific trough moves into the western states.  Aside from a low
   probability of thunderstorms across coastal areas of southwest WA,
   OR, and northern CA beginning Wednesday afternoon into the evening,
   a stable boundary layer across the rest of the CONUS will preclude
   the potential for thunderstorms.

   ...Coastal areas of southwest WA, OR, and northern CA...
   A cold front attendant to the inland-moving large-scale Pacific
   trough should spread into the western third of WA, OR, and far
   northwest CA during Wednesday afternoon, and proceed farther inland
   through the rest of WA/OR into northwest NV and northern CA.  Cold
   500-mb temperatures (-30 to -34 C) with the trough will further
   steepen lapse rates in the post-cold front environment, with weak
   buoyancy supporting lightning production.  In addition to strong
   height falls, the timing of an embedded shortwave trough reaching
   western OR/WA Wednesday afternoon suggests sufficient upward
   vertical motion could enhance the potential for thunderstorms.

   ..Peters.. 01/23/2018