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Jul 25, 2016 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Jul 25 17:23:14 UTC 2016 (Print Version | 20160725 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20160725 1730Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 251723

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1223 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2016

   VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SD/NEB...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLGT ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF THE NRN/CNTRL GREAT PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER
   MI...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
   MID-ATLANTIC...

   ...SUMMARY...
   THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA DURING THE AFTERNOON
   AND EVENING. MORE ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
   TUESDAY ELSEWHERE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT
   PLAINS EASTWARD TO UPPER MICHIGAN...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE
   MID-ATLANTIC.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   IN THE MID LEVELS...A BAND OF MODESTLY ENHANCED QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
   WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE NRN CONUS...WHICH WILL LIE BETWEEN RIDGING
   CONCENTRATED OVER THE SRN CONUS AND LOWER HEIGHTS OVER CANADA. A
   WEAKNESS IN THE SRN-CONUS RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM PORTIONS OF THE
   S-CNTRL CONUS TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...WITH FLANKING ANTICYCLONES
   CENTERED ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS AND THE SWRN N ATLANTIC.
   A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK EWD ACROSS PARTS OF ONTARIO AND
   QUEBEC...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT TRAILING WWD FROM PARTS OF
   LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MI TO MT. ANOTHER SFC FRONT WILL EXTEND E-W FROM
   THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE MID MS VALLEY...ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE NERN CONUS COAST LATE D1/MON INTO
   EARLY D2/TUE.

   ...PORTIONS OF THE NRN/CNTRL GREAT PLAINS...
   A PLUME OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL EXTEND NWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
   NRN/CNTRL GREAT PLAINS. THIS WILL BE FACILITATED BY POLEWARD MASS
   FLUXES ACCOMPANYING SFC TROUGHING FOCUSED IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
   THE LEE TROUGHING WILL BE AIDED BY THE MODEST CROSS-BARRIER FLOW
   ALOFT...AND FURTHER ENCOURAGED BY SMALLER-SCALE ASCENT ACCOMPANYING
   PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED IN THE BAND OF ENHANCED FLOW ALOFT. AS SFC
   DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 60S EXTEND NWD TOWARD THE
   MT-TO-UPPER-MI FRONT...AND MODERATELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   OVERSPREAD PORTIONS OF THE NRN/CNTRL GREAT PLAINS...MLCAPE AROUND
   1500-2500 J/KG IS FORECAST TO BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM PORTIONS OF
   CNTRL/WRN NEB INTO SD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

   A MORE PROMINENT MID-LEVEL PERTURBATION IS PRESENTLY CROSSING PARTS
   OF THE NRN GREAT BASIN PER WATER-VAPOR LOOPS...AND IS FORECAST TO
   CONTINUE TRACKING EWD THROUGH THE D2/TUE PERIOD -- TOWARD/ACROSS THE
   NRN GREAT PLAINS. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT RELATED ASCENT WILL
   FOSTER AN EWD SPREADING AREA OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE NRN PLAINS DURING D2/TUE MORNING. DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING-ENHANCED
   BAROCLINICITY PERIPHERAL TO RELATED CLOUD SHIELDS...OROGRAPHIC
   CIRCULATIONS INVOF THE BLACK HILLS...AND LOW-LEVEL ASCENT/DEEP
   BOUNDARY-LAYER CIRCULATIONS IN PROXIMITY TO A N/S-ORIENTED LEE
   TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS -- SHOULD ALL CONTRIBUTE TO
   INTENSIFICATION OF CONVECTION AND/OR DEVELOPMENT OF SFC-BASED
   CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON. EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 25-40 KT --
   AIDED BY A VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILE -- MAY SUPPORT A FEW
   MULTICELL/SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH SVR WIND/HAIL POSSIBLE.
   COLD-POOL AMALGAMATION COULD ENCOURAGE ONE OR TWO UPSCALE-GROWING
   CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WHICH WOULD
   SUBSEQUENTLY SPREAD SEWD ACROSS PARTS OF SD/NEB MAINTAINING THE
   SVR-WIND RISK.

   THE SLGT-RISK AREA INDICATES THE AREA OF GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SVR
   WIND/HAIL. ELSEWHERE ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN/CNTRL GREAT
   PLAINS...THE SVR RISK IS FORECAST TO BE SOMEWHAT MORE
   ISOLATED/CONDITIONAL. SOME NWD/NEWD EXTENSION OF THE SLGT MAY BE
   NECESSARY IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
   THE EVOLUTION OF EARLY D2/TUE CONVECTION AND RELATED EFFECTS ON
   DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION PRECLUDE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SLGT AT THIS
   TIME.

   ...PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO UPPER MI...
   RELATIVELY RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND SUFFICIENT SFC HEATING NEAR/S
   OF THE MT-TO-UPPER-MI FRONT WILL SUPPORT MODERATE DESTABILIZATION.
   THE PRESENCE OF 25-35 KT OF WLY FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE
   CONVECTIVE-CLOUD LAYER MAY FACILITATE SMALL CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS
   SPREADING EWD WITHIN A BAND OF PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE DURING THE
   AFTERNOON. ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY.

   ...PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...
   TO THE S OF THE FRONT DRAPED E/W ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC...MODERATE
   TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE
   PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN OF VA AND NC. FRONTAL ASCENT...OROGRAPHIC
   CIRCULATIONS OVER THE APPALACHIANS...AND SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL
   BE FOCI FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE.
   WHILE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MODEST -- E.G. H5 FLOW GENERALLY AROUND
   15-20 KT -- SUFFICIENT HIGH-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO EXIST TO
   ENCOURAGE CONVECTIVE VENTILATION. THIS COULD YIELD A FEW SUSTAINED
   CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS. WITH PW AROUND 1.90-2.10 INCHES...AMPLE
   PRECIPITATION LOADING IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE DOWNDRAFTS IN
   SUPPORT OF LOCALLY STRONG WET MICROBURSTS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DMGG
   WIND GUSTS.

   ..COHEN.. 07/25/2016

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