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Apr 19, 2014 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Apr 19 17:32:52 UTC 2014 (Print Version | 20140419 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20140419 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Probabilistic
 Population  Cities  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 39,065 682,794 Abilene, TX...Midland, TX...Odessa, TX...San Angelo, TX...Snyder, TX...
 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 191730

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1230 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

   VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WRN HALF
   OF TX...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM THE
   SOUTHERN ROCKIES/FOUR CORNERS AREA EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
   CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...PERHAPS SPREADING ACROSS THE
   MID-MISSOURI VALLEY TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT. 
   ISOLATED -- BUT STRONGER -- STORMS ARE ALSO FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF THE WESTERN HALF OF TEXAS AND POSSIBLY INTO SOUTHWEST
   OKLAHOMA...WHERE SEVERE POTENTIAL -- MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LARGE
   HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS -- WILL EXIST WITH THE
   STRONGEST CELLS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   WHILE A MUCH FASTER BELT OF MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
   NRN U.S. AND SRN CANADA...PRIMARY CONVECTIVE RISK WILL REMAIN
   FARTHER S...MAINLY ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS WHERE A
   TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE GRADUAL EWD PROGRESS.

   AT THE SURFACE...WEAK LEE TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO SHIFT INTO THE
   PLAINS AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING UPPER SYSTEM...WITH THIS
   TROUGH/DRYLINE FEATURE PROGGED TO FOCUS ISOLATED STRONG/LOCALLY
   SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER PARTS OF THE WRN HALF OF TX AND
   POSSIBLY SWRN OK DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  ELSEWHERE
   OUTSIDE OF THE ROCKIES/PLAINS VICINITY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
   EXPECTED.

   ...PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGION AND VICINITY...
   SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS -- ONGOING OVER PARTS OF THE SRN
   ROCKIES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD -- ARE PROGGED TO DEVELOP VERY
   EARLY IN THE PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF THE N TX/SWRN OK
   VICINITY...INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS STATES AND
   INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS MOST
   OF ROCKIES/PLAINS AREA WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE INTENSITY...AND THUS
   SEVERE WEATHER IS LARGELY UNLIKELY.

   AN EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS PARTS OF THE WRN HALF OF TX AND POSSIBLY
   INTO SWRN OK...WHERE ISOLATED SEVERE RISK IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE
   DURING THE AFTERNOON.  AS DIURNAL HEATING OF A MODESTLY MOIST
   BOUNDARY LAYER /50S TO LOW 60S DEWPOINTS/ COMMENCES...DEVELOPMENT OF
   500 TO 1000 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF A SURFACE
   TROUGH/DRYLINE PROGGED OVER W TX.  EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED
   STORMS IS EXPECTED...AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THIS REGION
   ENHANCING LOW-LEVEL ASCENT INVOF THE TROUGH/DRYLINE.  THE STRONGEST
   CELLS -- AND THUS THE BULK OF ANY SEVERE RISK -- IS FORECAST S OF
   THE RED RIVER WHERE...FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN STRONGER /CONTRIBUTING
   TO 30 TO 40 KT 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR/.  WITH LIMITED LOW-LEVEL
   FLOW...PRIMARY SEVERE RISK WILL BE LARGE HAIL...WITH LOCALLY
   DAMAGING GUSTS ALSO POSSIBLE.  SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL PERSIST THROUGH
   THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING...BEFORE DIMINISHING IN
   CONJUNCTION WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING/STABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY
   LAYER.

   ..GOSS.. 04/19/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

        
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