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May 4, 2016 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed May 4 16:41:33 UTC 2016 (Print Version | 20160504 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20160504 1730Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 041641

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1141 AM CDT WED MAY 04 2016

   VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
   ROCKIES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
   NORTHERN ROCKIES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
   THE WESTERN U.S. AND OVER THE EASTERN U.S. BENEATH AN UPPER LOW.

   ...NORTHERN ROCKIES...

   AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS
   ON THURSDAY. WHILE NO UPPER SHORTWAVE IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO MIGRATE
   THROUGH THE TOP OF THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...A
   DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING A COLD FRONT
   EASTWARD ACROSS ORE/WA INTO NRN ID/NW MT BY 00Z/FRI. A BAND OF
   MODEST MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH DEWPOINTS
   REACHING INTO THE LOW 50S AND PW VALUES NEAR 1 INCH. STRONG HEATING
   INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 WILL RESULT IN WEAK INSTABILITY IN THE
   VICINITY OF THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. AIDED BY STEEP
   MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY STRONGER
   UPDRAFTS. EXPECTED ISOLATED COVERAGE AND MARGINAL NATURE OF THE
   THREAT WILL PRECLUDE HIGHER PROBS.

   ...PORTIONS OF NRN CA INTO CENTRAL ORE/NW NV...

   ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF NRN CA INTO
   THE GREAT BASIN. STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME
   SMALL HAIL. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS LIMITED BY LACK OF FORCING ALOFT
   OR NEAR THE SURFACE AND SCANT INSTABILITY.

   ...OH-VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC...

   AN UPPER LOW WILL TRACK EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO
   THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
   DEVELOP ACROSS THIS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
   STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES BENEATH THE UPPER LOW COULD RESULT IN
   SOME SMALL HAIL ACROSS PARTS OF SE OH/WV/VA/NC. WEAK DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR AND MODEST INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT ANY ORGANIZED THREAT.

   ..LEITMAN.. 05/04/2016

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

        
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Page last modified: May 04, 2016
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