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May 23, 2018 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed May 23 17:16:43 UTC 2018 (Print Version | 20180523 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20180523 1730Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 231716

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1216 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018

   Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO MINNESOTA...AND INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
   NORTHERN KANSAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across
   portions of the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley on
   Thursday.

   ...Synopsis...
   A low-amplitude shortwave trough will move slowly across the
   northern Plains into the upper MS Valley, with a surface trough
   across the central Dakotas into Nebraska by late afternoon. A large
   area of mid to locally upper 60s F dewpoints will stretch from east
   of the surface trough southward to the Gulf Coast as southerly
   low-level winds persist. Stronger flow will exist across the central
   Plains into the upper MS Valley in association with the shortwave
   trough, with an evening increase in a southwesterly low-level jet
   across the central and southern Plains as well. Scattered severe
   storms are expected near the surface trough from parts of the
   central Plains northward, with the main threat area from the eastern
   Dakotas and NE into MN where instability and lift will be strongest.

   Elsewhere, a moist and unstable air mass will remain over much of
   the Gulf Coast states, with clusters of daytime storms likely within
   a low-shear environment, capable of strong wind gusts. A few strong
   storms may also occur across far southwest TX as southeasterly
   surface winds back moisture westward toward the higher terrain.

   ...Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley...
   A few ongoing showers and storms may be ongoing across NE and
   southeast SD early in the day, but these are expected to dissipate.
   Strong destabilization will occur thereafter, with MUCAPE around
   2000-3000 J/kg developing. While shear profiles will not be strong,
   some enhanced winds aloft with the upper trough will support
   clusters of severe storms from northern NE across the eastern
   Dakotas, moving into MN during the evening. In addition, daytime
   storms may also form across part of northern MN where the air mass
   will become uncapped and aided by a broad zone of warm advection.
   Damaging wind will be possible in all areas, with hail most likely
   across western portions of the risk area.

   ...Central High Plains...
   Strong heating will lead to a deeply-mixed boundary layer and steep
   overall lapse rate profiles. The presence of cold profiles aloft and
   50s F dewpoints will lead to moderate instability, and a few severe
   storms are expected to form by late afternoon near the low pressure
   trough, continuing a few hours into the evening and moving in an
   east/southeastward direction. Both severe hail and wind will be
   possible.

   ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
   Tornado:  <2%     - None
   Wind:     15%     - Slight
   Hail:     15%     - Slight

   ..Jewell.. 05/23/2018

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

        
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Page last modified: May 23, 2018
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