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Aug 24, 2016 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Aug 24 17:30:43 UTC 2016 (Print Version | 20160824 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20160824 1730Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 241730

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1230 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016

   VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR NRN OH...FAR NERN IND AND
   SERN LOWER MI...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK FOR
   PARTS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OH VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE SRN/CNTRL
   PLAINS INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
   PRIMARILY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN OHIO. OTHER STRONG TO ISOLATED
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND
   CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A BELT OF MODERATE TO STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL EXTEND FROM THE
   SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE NERN CONUS...ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
   MIDLEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE MID-SOUTH. A PROGRESSIVE NRN
   STREAM TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA WILL GLANCE THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
   REGION...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
   WRN QUEBEC INTO THE MID-OH VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON. WRN SEGMENT OF
   THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY
   INTO PORTIONS OF WRN OK...WITH A SEASONABLY MOIST AIR MASS
   MAINTAINED ALONG/S OF THE FRONT. BROAD MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
   WILL PERSIST FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT BASIN...KEEPING
   RICHER MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONFINED TO SRN AZ/NM AND NWRN
   MEXICO...BUT ISOLATED TSTMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF THE INTERIOR WEST. 

   ...NRN IND AND SRN LOWER MI EWD INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY...
   A SRN STREAM MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX /OVER SWRN OK AS OF 24/17Z/ IS
   FORECAST TO INTENSIFY WHILE MOVING ENEWD ACROSS IL/IND DURING THE
   MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH 40-50 KT OF 700 MB WLY FLOW
   OVERSPREADING THE REGION. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES APPROACHES NRN OH
   LATER IN THE PERIOD...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
   OCCUR ALONG A COLD FRONT BY MID-AFTERNOON...DESPITE RELATIVELY
   VEERED LOW-LEVEL FLOW. STRONG HEATING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
   /TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S F/ AMIDST RICH LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG DURING
   PEAK HEATING...WHICH COMBINED WITH THE MODERATELY STRONG
   LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW...SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW TSTM CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF
   STRONG TO DMGG WIND GUSTS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NRN OH...FAR SERN
   LOWER MI AND FAR NERN IND.

   ...PARTS OF THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY...
   A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM NEAR OR JUST S
   OF ST. LOUIS WWD ACROSS SRN KS/NRN OK DURING THE AFTERNOON. A PLUME
   OF RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL EXIST ALONG/S OF THIS BOUNDARY.  A
   CORRIDOR OF STRONG HEATING SHOULD DEVELOP AS EARLY MORNING
   PRECIPITATION TO THE N OF THE BOUNDARY ERODES...YIELDING MODERATE
   DESTABILIZATION NEAR/S OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS PARTS OF NRN OK INTO
   SERN KS...AND THIS WILL BE CO-LOCATED WITH A BELT OF 30-40 KT
   MIDLEVEL FLOW. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS WILL FORM DURING THE
   AFTERNOON...AND MAY POSE A BRIEF THREAT FOR SVR HAIL AND/OR DMGG
   WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...WITH MODERATELY STRONG SWLY MID-UPPER
   FLOW...THE ORIENTATION OF STORM MOTION SHOULD RESULT IN CONVECTION
   MOVING N OF THE BOUNDARY. UNCERTAINTY IN THE BOUNDARY POSITION AND
   LONGEVITY OF SVR THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH INDIVIDUAL TSTMS PRECLUDES
   SLIGHT RISK UPGRADE ACROSS PARTS OF NRN OK/SRN KS AND SWRN MO IN
   THIS OUTLOOK...BUT ONE MAY BE CONSIDERED IN FUTURE OUTLOOKS AS
   CONFIDENCE INCREASES.

   OTHER STRONG TSTMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS
   INTO WEST TX AND SERN NM...BUT WITH WEAKER DEEP-LAYER FLOW AND A
   SLIGHTLY DRIER BOUNDARY-LAYER...ANY LARGE HAIL OR STRONG WIND GUST
   POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED.

   ..ROGERS.. 08/24/2016

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

        
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