SPC AC 121730
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1130 AM CST SUN FEB 12 2012
   
   VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNER/SWRN STATES
   WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO N TX AT 12Z MONDAY. 
   THIS MID-UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL TRACK ENEWD INTO THE TN/LOWER OH
   VALLEYS DURING THE DAY 2 FORECAST PERIOD.  A WEAK SURFACE LOW...
   INITIALLY LOCATED OVER DEEP S TX AT START OF OUTLOOK...WILL MOVE
   NEWD THROUGH THE TX COASTAL PLAINS INTO E TX BY LATE MONDAY
   AFTERNOON AND THEN TRACK EWD INTO SRN MS BY 12Z TUESDAY.
   
   GREATEST TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD FROM W-E ACROSS THE
   NWRN GULF OF MEXICO FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT
   PERIOD/EARLY TUESDAY.  A FEW TSTMS...ROOTED NEAR SURFACE OR AT THE
   SURFACE...WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE UPPER TX AND LA COASTS MAINLY
   AFTER 14/00Z...WITH SPORADIC ELEVATED TSTM ACTIVITY FARTHER N INTO E
   TX...AR TO MS/AL MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
   
   ...UPPER TX COAST/SE TX TO COASTAL/SRN LA...
   STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT...ATTENDANT TO THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH...IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE NWRN GULF
   COAST REGION ON MONDAY.  MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE SRN EXTENT
   OF THIS STRONGER FORCING WILL PRECEDE THE EXPECTED BOUNDARY LAYER
   WARMING/MOISTENING EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW AND
   TRAILING WIND SHIFT BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  ALTHOUGH LOW
   LEVEL WAA WILL SUPPORT CONVECTION...SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE
   TROUGH AND MODEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL TEND TO LIMIT UPDRAFT
   STRENGTH ALONG THE NWRN GULF COAST.
   
   DESPITE THESE FACTORS LIMITING INLAND TSTM COVERAGE...ANY STORM THAT
   CAN BECOME ROOTED AT THE SURFACE BY MONDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT WILL
   POSE A NON-ZERO THREAT FOR STORM ROTATION GIVEN CURVED HODOGRAPHS
   ALONG A 40-50 KT VEERING LLJ.  HOWEVER...THE WINDOW FOR THIS SEVERE
   TSTM POTENTIAL IS FAIRLY SHORT AND GIVEN THAT UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN
   FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS...THIS OUTLOOK WILL MAINTAIN NO SEVERE
   PROBABILITIES.
   
   ..PETERS.. 02/12/2012
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z