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Mar 31, 2015 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Mar 31 17:16:29 UTC 2015 (Print Version | 20150331 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20150331 1730Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 311716

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1216 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

   VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SWRN MN TO NWRN OK...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLGT RISK FROM
   THE CNTRL PLAINS TO NRN FL...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL
   AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE
   SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  OTHER
   MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS COULD EVOLVE FROM NORTHERN ARKANSAS TO
   NORTHERN FLORIDA.

   ...UPPER MIDWEST TO SRN GREAT PLAINS...

   STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH LOCATED ALONG THE PACIFIC NW COAST THIS
   MORNING WILL PROGRESS INLAND ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN
   HIGH PLAINS BY 02/00Z.  STRONGEST FLOW WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD
   TRANSLATE INTO THE DAKOTAS WHERE H5 FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
   50-60KT...PRIMARILY NORTH OF EXPECTED ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT.

   AT THE SFC...STRONG FRONT WILL SURGE SEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TO A
   POSITION FROM NWRN MN...SWWD INTO EXTREME NERN CO JUST PRIOR TO
   CONVECTIVE INITIATION.  LATEST THINKING IS BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE
   WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS...SURGING INTO THE
   UPPER MIDWEST AS LLJ STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.  FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A NARROW CORRIDOR OF PRE-FRONTAL HEATING WILL
   REMOVE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION FROM NEAR THE NEB/KS BORDER...SWD ALONG
   THE DRY LINE INTO NWRN TX.  MINIMAL LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE
   REQUIRED ALONG THE DRY LINE FOR ISOLATED DISCRETE HIGH-BASED
   SUPERCELLS ACROSS THIS REGION.  FARTHER NORTHEAST ALONG THE COLD
   FRONT...DEEP-LAYER FORCING SHOULD EASILY AID TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN
   A SUFFICIENTLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FOR ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE.  WHILE
   INITIAL ACTIVITY COULD EXHIBIT SUPERCELL
   CHARACTERISTICS...DEEP-LAYER FLOW AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE FAVOR
   LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF INITIATION.  HAIL/WIND
   ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS ACROSS THIS REGION.  


   ...AR TO NRN FL...

   OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE SERN U.S. INTO AR
   INTO THE DAY2 PERIOD.  THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR
   ISOLATED TSTMS DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY AS INHIBITION WEAKENS AND
   CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE BREACHED.  WHILE NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW IS
   NOT FORECAST TO BE MORE THAN 15-20KT...EFFECTIVE SHEAR APPEARS
   ADEQUATE FOR STRONG MULTI-CELL UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
   MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND GIVEN THE EXPECTED STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES.

   ..DARROW.. 03/31/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

        
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Page last modified: March 31, 2015
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