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Jul 28, 2015 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Jul 28 17:05:00 UTC 2015 (Print Version | 20150728 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20150728 1730Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 281705

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1205 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

   VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MIDWEST AND OH VALLEY
   SWD TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
   ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES
   WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRAVEL NEWD ACROSS NRN ONTARIO
   WITH BASE OF THE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT SWEEPING EWD ACROSS THE GREAT
   LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE TAIL END OF THIS FRONT WILL DRIFT SWD
   ACROSS OK AND TX PANHANDLE ALSO PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
   MEANWHILE...AN UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE SRN PLAINS
   WITH A WEAK NLY UPPER FLOW REGIME OVER MUCH OF THE SERN STATES WHERE
   A MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS.

   ...MIDWEST TO OH VALLEY...
   IN THE WAKE OF SOME EARLY SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS...MODERATE
   INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING FRONT/WIND SHIFT
   FROM SERN LOWER MI INTO CNTRL IL AND MO BY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
   FORCING FOR ASCENT/FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL BE WEAK...STRONG
   HEATING SHOULD YIELD SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE MARGINAL AREA BY
   AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST RISK OF MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND OR HAIL
   APPEARS TO RESIDE WITH THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY FROM IL/IN SWD
   ACROSS KY/TN. A SECONDARY RELATIVE THREAT AREA APPEARS TO BE ALONG
   THE GULF COAST FROM SERN LA INTO THE FL PANHANDLE DUE TO HIGHER
   DEWPOINTS AND NLY FLOW CONSOLIDATING STORMS INTO THAT AREA BY
   AFTERNOON.

   ...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   SCATTERED STORMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM NEAR THE TRAILING FRONT DURING
   THE AFTERNOON WHERE A RIBBON OF MID TO UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS WILL
   CONTRIBUTE TO ABOUT 1500 J/KG MUCAPE...FROM THE TX PANHANDLE INTO
   OK. ALTHOUGH LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY...POOR LAPSE RATES
   ALOFT AND LACK OF SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY NON-SEVERE STORMS.

   ..JEWELL.. 07/28/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

        
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Page last modified: July 28, 2015
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