Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

< Day 1 Outlook   Day 3 Outlook >
Oct 24, 2014 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Oct 24 16:50:00 UTC 2014 (Print Version | 20141024 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20141024 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Probabilistic
 Population  Cities  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 241650

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1150 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

   VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NRN CA INTO SWRN OREGON...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM
   NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO SOUTHWESTERN OREGON. A FEW STORMS MAY BE
   CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS...SMALL HAIL...OR A
   WEAK/BRIEF TORNADO.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ASHORE THE PACIFIC COAST WITH JET STREAK
   SITUATED FROM NRN CA INTO ERN OREGON BY MIDDAY. STRONG COOLING ALOFT
   AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO WEAK INSTABILITY FOR A FEW STRONG
   STORMS FROM NRN CA INTO SWRN OREGON.

   TO THE E...AN INTENSE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH LEFT-ENTRANCE REGION OF
   THE UPPER JET WILL NOSE INTO LAKE ONTARIO/NEW YORK DURING THE
   AFTERNOON AND ACROSS NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. SUBSTANTIAL COOLING
   ALOFT AND LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY RESULT IN LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION
   ALONG A COLD FRONT DESPITE MINUSCULE INSTABILITY.

   ...NRN CA INTO SWRN OREGON...
   A LEADING BAND OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
   WILL AFFECT THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH SHEAR PROFILES
   WILL BE STRONG...LAPSE RATES WILL NOT FAVOR SEVERE ACTIVITY.

   THE GREATER CHANCE OF A FEW LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS WILL OCCUR WHEN
   COOLING ALOFT OVERSPREADS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY
   WITH MUCAPE VALUES TO AROUND 500 J/KG DEVELOPING. SHEAR PROFILES
   WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS WHICH MAY EXIST BOTH
   OVER THE WATER AND INLAND WHERE CONVERGENCE IS ENHANCED DUE TO
   TERRAIN INFLUENCES. SMALL HAIL...LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND AN
   ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE.

   ..JEWELL.. 10/24/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

        
Top/Latest Day 1 Outlook/Today's Outlooks/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: October 24, 2014
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities