Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

< Day 1 Outlook   Day 3 Outlook >
Sep 15, 2014 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Sep 15 17:30:30 UTC 2014 (Print Version | 20140915 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20140915 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Probabilistic
 Population  Cities  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 151730

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1230 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

   VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY OCCUR OVER EASTERN KANSAS WHERE SCATTERED
   STORMS SHOULD FORM BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED TO
   SCATTERED GENERAL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
   SOUTHERN INTO THE WESTERN U.S.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL REMAIN CHARACTERIZED BY A TROUGH IN THE
   EAST AND A RIDGE IN THE WEST. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL
   PUSH S/SE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/DEEP SOUTH AS AN ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS
   FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST. TRAILING PORTION OF
   THIS BOUNDARY WILL ADVANCE N AS A WARM FRONT INTO KS AND THE OZARK
   PLATEAU BY 12Z/WED.

   ...ERN KS AREA...
   WHILE LOW-LEVEL W/SWLYS WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...MODERATELY
   ROBUST WAA WILL OCCUR TUE NIGHT TOWARDS THE LOWER/MID-MO VALLEY.
   WITH PREDOMINATELY W/NWLYS IN THE MID-LEVELS...A PLUME OF RATHER
   STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
   RETURNING FROM OK/TX. LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT PERHAPS AIDED BY A
   SUBTLE UPPER-LEVEL SPEED MAX RACING SE ACROSS THE MID-MO VALLEY
   SHOULD YIELD A BAND OF ELEVATED STORMS BETWEEN 06-12Z. CLOUD-LAYER
   SPEED SHEAR AND THE STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST
   SMALL HAIL PRODUCTION WITH INITIAL CELLS. RELATIVELY RAPID EVOLUTION
   INTO A CLUSTER MODE WILL PROBABLY LIMIT THE SPATIAL EXTENT AND
   OVERALL MAGNITUDE OF THE SEVERE RISK.

   ..GRAMS.. 09/15/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

        
Top/Latest Day 1 Outlook/Today's Outlooks/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: September 15, 2014
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities