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Aug 27, 2014 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Aug 27 16:25:42 UTC 2014 (Print Version | 20140827 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20140827 1730Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 271625

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1125 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

   VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
   CENTRAL UNITED STATES THURSDAY...WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE RISK
   EVIDENT FROM THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
   INTO THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY.

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MIGRATE EWD OVER THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY. UPPER
   FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK...BUT
   AMPLE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
   THUNDERSTORMS. AT THE SFC...A WEAK LOW NEAR THE EASTERN NEB/SD
   BORDER WILL LIFT E/NE TOWARD SRN MN BY 12Z FRIDAY. A TRAILING COLD
   FRONT WILL PUSH EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE LATE
   AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

   ...MID-MO VALLEY INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...

   SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING THURSDAY MORNING
   ACROSS THE MID-MO VALLEY IN A STRONG WARM ADVECTION REGIME.
   WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
   U.S...WHERE A MOIST AIRMASS /PW AROUND 1.50+ IN/ WILL BE IN PLACE
   BENEATH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL LIMIT HEATING...BUT
   POCKETS OF MODEST INSTABILITY /LESS THAN 1500 J PER KG MLCAPE/
   SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
   SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED DUE TO WEAK MIDLEVEL FLOW AND
   THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER...EXCEPT WHERE BETTER HEATING CAN OCCUR
   AND POTENTIALLY NEAR ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM PRIOR CONVECTION.
   THE BETTER CHANCE FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION MAY BE
   ALONG THE SFC COLD FRONT FROM PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL KS SWWD INTO THE
   SRN HIGH PLAINS OF W TX ALONG THE SFC TROUGH/DRYLINE. HERE...GREATER
   SFC HEATING WILL BE POSSIBLE LEADING TO STRONGER INSTABILITY.
   HOWEVER...FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE WEAKER FURTHER SOUTH INTO WRN
   OK/TX. AS SUCH ONLY ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
   GIVEN LIMITED NATURE OF SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE MID-MO VALLEY AND
   ISOLATED COVERAGE FURTHER SW INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...ONLY LOW-END
   SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL BE MAINTAINED AT THIS TIME.

   ..LEITMAN.. 08/27/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

        
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Page last modified: August 27, 2014
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