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May 28, 2015 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu May 28 16:55:02 UTC 2015 (Print Version | 20150528 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20150528 1730Z Day 2 KML)
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   SPC AC 281655

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1155 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

   VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST TX AND THE
   TX PANHANDLE...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
   PLAINS...ARKLATEX...OZARKS...MID-MO VALLEY...MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY
   AND GREAT LAKES REGION...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE
   SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON FRIDAY WHERE LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL
   BE POSSIBLE. SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL AND MARGINALLY
   SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FROM
   THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO
   THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

   ...SRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE SRN AND
   CNTRL PLAINS ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES SEWD INTO CNTRL KS
   AND THE OK PANHANDLE. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE
   MID TO UPPER 60S F SHOULD ENABLE MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY TO
   DEVELOP. THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY IS FORECAST OVER THE TX PANHANDLE
   AND WEST TX WHERE LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEPEST. THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR
   LIKELY TO INITIATE ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A
   SEVERE THREAT DEVELOPING IN THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF
   STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SHOULD SPREAD SEWD ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK
   AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

   FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 00Z/SAT FOR AMARILLO AND LUBBOCK SHOW
   IMPRESSIVE THERMODYNAMICS WITH MLCAPE OF 2500 TO 3500 J/KG AND 850
   TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 8.0 C/KM. THIS COMBINED WITH MODERATE
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL.
   THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SUPERCELLS WILL BE MOST LIKELY IN THE
   FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF THE EVENT BEFORE A TRANSITION TO LINEAR MODE
   OCCURS. WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IF A PERSISTENT
   LINE SEGMENT CAN ORGANIZE. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT COULD
   ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL AND ERN TX...OK AND KS...WEAKER
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST IN THESE AREAS SUGGESTING ANY SEVERE
   THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL THERE.

   ...MID MO VALLEY/MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES...
   SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE FROM THE MID MO VALLEY NEWD
   ACROSS THE MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
   FRIDAY. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE SEWD ACROSS
   WI...SE MN AND NRN IA DURING THE AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE
   BOUNDARY...SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F SHOULD ENABLE THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM THE MID MO VALLEY NEWD INTO
   THE GREAT LAKES AROUND MIDDAY. MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SPORADICALLY ALONG THIS
   CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR DES
   MOINES...CHICAGO AND DETROIT AT 21Z SHOW MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 2000
   J/KG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE LOW-LEVELS. WIND PROFILES ARE
   UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH SOME SPEED SHEAR IN THE MID-LEVELS. THIS MAY BE
   ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH THE MORE PERSISTENT
   MULTICELL CLUSTERS.

   ..BROYLES.. 05/28/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

        
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