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Jul 3, 2015 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Jul 3 17:30:23 UTC 2015 (Print Version | 20150703 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20150703 1730Z Day 2 KML)
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   SPC AC 031730

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1230 PM CDT FRI JUL 03 2015

   VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
   PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER
   VALLEY/SOUTHEAST STATES...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED STRONG STORMS WILL POSE A RISK FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND
   HAIL ON SATURDAY...THE 4TH OF JULY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...THE
   NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND THE GREAT BASIN.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   SPLIT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CONUS ON SATURDAY JULY
   4TH. IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM...A MODERATE BELT OF WESTERLIES WILL
   ACCOMPANY A SLOW-EASTWARD-MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER
   VALLEY/SOUTHEAST STATES...WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE ABATES OVER THE
   GREAT BASIN. A STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY AN
   AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES/PRAIRIES...WHICH
   WILL RELATE TO A SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING FRONT INTO PORTIONS OF
   MT/DAKOTAS SATURDAY NIGHT.

   ...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
   THE TIMING OF WEAK MID-LEVEL PERTURBATIONS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE
   CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES UPPER RIDGE STILL REMAINS UNCLEAR.
   HOWEVER...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AT LEAST ISOLATED/WIDELY
   SCATTERED STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP SATURDAY
   AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING MAINLY IN VICINITY A NORTH-SOUTH SURFACE
   TROUGH. ALTHOUGH LOW/MID-TROPOSPHERIC WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
   WEAK...AMPLE VEERING WITH HEIGHT AND STRONG HIGH-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY
   WINDS WILL SUPPORT SOME SUPERCELLS SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
   IN THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE /2000+ J PER KG/ MLCAPE. 

   IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT ONE OR MORE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING MCS/S
   COULD EVOLVE SATURDAY EVENING WITH AID OF A NOCTURNALLY
   STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET. ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF THE
   REGION...POTENTIALLY INCLUDING MORE OF WESTERN KS AND PARTS OF THE
   TX PANHANDLE/WESTERN OK...COULD WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK UPGRADE IN THE
   DAY 1 TIME FRAME PENDING A GREATER CONFIDENCE IN STORM
   COVERAGE/SUSTENANCE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OTHERWISE RELATIVELY FAVORABLE
   FOR ORGANIZED STORM MODES.

   ...MT/ND...
   RELATED TO THE SYNOPSIS-DESCRIBED TROUGH AMPLIFICATION...UPPER
   HEIGHT FALLS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
   BY SATURDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE TRIPLE POINT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
   ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY
   AFTERNOON/EVENING VIA AN EASTWARD-MOVING FRONTAL WAVE...SHARPENING
   PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...AND SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING FRONT ACROSS
   MT/WESTERN ND. AT LEAST ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
   DEVELOP/MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY
   AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH SEVERE HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS A
   POSSIBILITY. PARTS OF NORTHEAST MT INTO ND COULD WARRANT AN UPGRADE
   TO SLIGHT RISK IN THE DAY 1 PERIOD.

   ...LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY/SOUTHEAST STATES...
   WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AND A BELT OF MODERATELY STRONG/SEMI-COOL CYCLONIC
   FLOW ALOFT WILL LARGELY COINCIDE WITH AN EFFECTIVE FRONTAL ZONE
   REGULATED BY PRIOR CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. A
   GRADUAL INCREASE/INTENSIFICATION OF EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING
   THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS PROBABLE BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON SATURDAY.
   SOME SEMI-ORGANIZED CLUSTERS MAY EVOLVE...WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING
   WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERN SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
   EARLY/MID-EVENING.

   ...GREAT BASIN...
   A BELT OF MODESTLY STRONGER SOUTHERLY MID/HIGH-LEVEL WINDS WILL
   OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE. A
   DIURNALLY HEATED/WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE
   DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
   AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING MOSTLY ACROSS NV. DOWNBURSTS AND POSSIBLY
   SOME HAIL /MOSTLY SUB-SEVERE/ CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER
   STORMS.

   ..GUYER.. 07/03/2015

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

        
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Page last modified: July 03, 2015
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