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Feb 12, 2016 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Feb 12 16:45:20 UTC 2016 (Print Version | 20160212 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20160212 1730Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 121645

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1045 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

   VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

   ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR NEGLIGIBLE ACROSS THE U.S.
   SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   THE SHALLOW LEADING EDGE OF ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT COLD INTRUSION INTO
   THE EASTERN U.S. APPEARS LIKELY TO REACH THE CENTRAL FLORIDA
   PENINSULA BY 12Z SATURDAY...BEFORE CONTINUING SOUTHWARD THROUGH MUCH
   OF THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA PENINSULA
   BY 12Z SUNDAY.  ITS ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL TROUGHING AND DEEP EMBEDDED
   CLOSED LOW OF ARCTIC ORIGINS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN WEAKENING AND
   GRADUALLY TURNING EAST OF NORTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS.  IN THEIR
   WAKE...A GENERAL WEST NORTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
   PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S...DOWNSTREAM OF UPPER RIDGING
   BUILDING TOWARD THE CANADIAN/U.S. PACIFIC COAST.  WITHIN THIS
   REGIME...MODELS DO INDICATE THAT A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
   IMPULSE WILL DIG EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

   LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GENERALLY DRY AND/OR STABLE CONDITIONS NOW
   PREVALENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S. IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. 
   HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL COOLING PROBABLY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STEEPENING
   LAPSE RATES AND AT LEAST WEAK DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN
   ROCKIES REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY WHERE AIDED BY COUPLED FORCING
   FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH OROGRAPHY AND THE DIGGING SHORT WAVE
   IMPULSE.  IT DOES NOT APPEAR OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERMODYNAMIC
   PROFILES COULD BECOME AT LEAST MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE TO CHARGE
   SEPARATION...AND LIGHTNING...NEAR AND SOUTHEAST OF THE ABSAROKA AND
   BIG HORN RANGES OF MONTANA/WYOMING...POSSIBLY INTO THE BLACK HILLS. 
   AT THIS TIME...THOUGH...PROBABILITIES STILL APPEAR TO REMAIN BELOW
   THE MINIMUM 10 PERCENT THRESHOLD FOR A CATEGORICAL THUNDERSTORM
   AREA.

   ..KERR.. 02/12/2016

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z

        
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Page last modified: February 12, 2016
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