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May 25, 2016 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed May 25 17:39:44 UTC 2016 (Print Version | 20160525 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20160525 1730Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 251739

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1239 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

   VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN
   NEBRASKA...NRN AND CNTRL KS AND WRN OK...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE CNTRL PLAINS
   SWD INTO W CNTRL TX...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
   U.S....

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL ARE
   EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEBRASKA INTO NORTHERN KANSAS FROM
   LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING ON THURSDAY...WITH MORE ISOLATED
   SEVERE STORMS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS
   INTO NORTHEASTERN COLORADO. OTHER MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL
   AND STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID TO UPPER
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS ON THURSDAY
   WITH UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER CO AT 00Z AND A 50-60 KT MIDLEVEL JET
   MAX MOVING INTO WRN TX. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN
   ALONG THE CO/KS BORDER WITH A WARM FRONT BECOMING ESTABLISHED NEAR
   THE KS/NE BORDER BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE DEEPENING LOW WILL BACK SFC
   WINDS ACROSS NEB...WITH THE BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING WWD
   INTO NERN CO. TO THE S...A DRYLINE WILL EXTEND SSEWD FROM THE LOW
   INTO WRN OK...THEN BECOMING STATIONARY AND RETREATING INTO WRN TX
   LATE. THE WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WITH UPPER 60S
   TO NEAR 70 F DEWPOINTS BENEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT. DEEP LAYER
   WIND FIELDS WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS WITH A 50+ KT LOW-LEVEL JET
   DEVELOPING NEAR OR AFTER 00Z PERHAPS SUPPORTING A FEW STRONG
   TORNADOES ACROSS MAINLY SRN NEB INTO CNTRL KS ALONG WITH VERY LARGE
   HAIL.

   ANOTHER AREA OF SEVERE STORMS IS LIKELY INTO SWRN/CNTRL TX LATE IN
   THE DAY INTO THE EVENING AS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SPREADS
   OVER A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. 

   ...NERN CO...SRN NEB...NRN KS...
   BACKING WINDS N OF THE SFC LOW WILL HELP BRING HIGHER DEWPOINTS WWD
   INTO NERN CO BY LATE AFTERNOON WHERE VERY COLD PROFILES ALOFT WILL
   CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG INSTABILITY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS PRODUCING
   LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO...ALTHOUGH STRONG WIND FIELDS
   ALOFT WILL BE EAST OF THIS AREA.

   THE GREATEST THREAT FOR TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE ALONG
   THE WARM FRONT AND NEAR THE SFC LOW FROM SRN NEB INTO NRN AND CNTRL
   KS. HERE...VERY STRONG INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT...ALONG WITH
   RAPIDLY INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
   EVENING HOURS WITH A 50+ KT LOW LEVEL JET. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
   AGREEMENT SHOWING NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS REGION...AND A
   MODERATE RISK CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

   ...CNTRL KS SWD INTO WRN OK...
   HEATING AND A RAPID NWD TRANSPORT OF UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS WILL LEAD
   TO VERY STRONG INSTABILITY NEAR THE DRYLINE S OF THE SFC LOW AS
   UPPER WIND FIELDS STRENGTHEN. HODOGRAPHS WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
   SUPERCELLS BY 21-00Z...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES POSSIBLE.
   WHILE STORMS MAY BE MORE ISOLATED ACROSS THIS AREA...SIGNIFICANT
   SEVERE IS CONDITIONALLY LIKELY INCLUDING TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE
   HAIL. SOME BACKING OF THE WINDS IS EVIDENT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   MAINLY ABOVE 700 MB...BUT HODOGRAPHS REMAIN QUITE SUFFICIENT. 

   ...W CNTRL TX INTO THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...
   COOLING ALOFT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND A STRONG SLY LOW-LEVEL JET
   AIDING MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE
   STORMS OVER SWRN INTO CNTRL TX BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
   SHEAR PROFILES WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL.

   ...NRN WI INTO UPPER MI...
   A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE NEWD ACROSS NRN WI INTO
   UPPER MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY ALONG WITH A WEAK SFC TROUGH.
   DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F AND SLY 850 MB FLOW PRECEDING THIS FEATURE
   WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT
   TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN THREAT
   SHOULD BE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

   ..JEWELL.. 05/25/2016

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

        
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