SPC AC 241647
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1147 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2008
   
   VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND MID
   MS VALLEY WWD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   
   LARGE-SCALE OMEGA BLOCK WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM THE
   NERN PACIFIC ACROSS CANADA WITH A BELT OF PROGRESSIVE WLY FLOW
   UNDERCUTTING THIS CONFIGURATION ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF STATES.  THE
   PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE SHORT WAVE WHICH WILL TRANSLATE
   EWD FROM S-CNTRL CANADA AND THE NRN PLAINS AROUND SRN PERIPHERY OF
   UPPER VORTEX OVER HUDSON BAY ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
   
   AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
   PUSH EWD THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH SWWD
   EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE
   CNTRL PLAINS.
   
   ...UPPER MIDWEST AND MID MS VALLEY WWD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH
   PLAINS...
   
   LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AN MCS MAY BE ONGOING FRI
   MORNING SOMEWHERE OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID/LOWER MO VALLEY INTO MID
   MS VALLEY...LARGELY DRIVEN BY WAA ALONG NOSE OF NOCTURNAL...SWLY
   LLJ.  THIS SYSTEM SHOULD DECAY THROUGH THE MORNING WITH DIURNAL
   WEAKENING OF LLJ.  IN IT/S WAKE...A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /DEWPOINTS
   IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S/ IN CONJUNCTION WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL
   RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS BY
   AFTERNOON AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 2000-2500
   J/KG.
   
   TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT BY AFTERNOON FROM THE
   UPPER MIDWEST SWWD INTO MID MO VALLEY AS FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND SRN
   FRINGE OF STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS ATTENDANT TO SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACT
   ON DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR.  SUBSEQUENT STORM DEVELOPMENT IS
   ANTICIPATED FARTHER SW ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS SRN NEB/NRN KS...AS
   WELL AS WITHIN POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE REGIME OVER NERN CO/ERN WY. 
   FINALLY...ADDITIONAL DIURNAL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN
   PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY REMNANT FROM THU
   NIGHT/S MCS...LIKELY OVER THE LOWER MO INTO MID MS VALLEYS.
   
   WHILE THE STRONGEST MIDLEVEL FLOW /40-50 KT AT 500 MB/ WILL REMAIN
   CONFINED TO NRN EXTENSION OF COLD FRONT ACROSS MN/WI/THE UP OF
   MI...AN INCREASING ELY LOW-LEVEL WIND COMPONENT ALONG STALLING
   PORTION OF FRONT OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL YIELD A LARGE ZONE OF
   30-45 KT DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR.  AS SUCH...THE POTENTIAL WILL
   EXIST FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH THE PRIMARY
   THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
   AND EVENING HOURS.
   
   ..MEAD.. 07/24/2008
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z