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Jul 29, 2014 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Jul 29 17:30:19 UTC 2014 (Print Version | 20140729 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20140729 1730Z Day 2 KML)
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   SPC AC 291730

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1230 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

   VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   LOCALIZED SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH OKLAHOMA
   AND NORTH TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN EXPANSIVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED FROM JAMES BAY
   S ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. A COUPLE OF WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSES SHOULD
   GRADUALLY PROGRESS SE FROM THE CNTRL ROCKIES TO SRN PLAINS ON THE
   FRINGE OF THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME. AT THE SURFACE...A
   QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY WILL BECOME
   ESTABLISHED NEAR THE RED RIVER OF THE S. 

   ...RED RIVER VALLEY OF THE SOUTH...
   LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
   MID-LEVEL IMPULSES SHOULD AID IN SUSTAINING A LARGE NON-SEVERE
   CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ACROSS PARTS OF OK/S KS/N TX AT 12Z/WED.
   WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION N OF THE FRONT IN CONTRAST TO ROBUST
   INSOLATION S OF THE BOUNDARY WILL YIELD A PRONOUNCED DIFFERENTIAL
   HEATING CORRIDOR /LIKELY INVOF THE RED RIVER/. OVERALL BUOYANCY WILL
   REMAIN WEAK...BUT SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR AS
   SURFACE DEW POINTS REACH THE UPPER 60S. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT
   AND STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD FOSTER RENEWED TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH
   MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE MODEST...VERTICALLY VEERING 0-3 KM
   WIND PROFILES COULD YIELD TRANSIENT LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES WITHIN
   EMBEDDED CLUSTERS THAT ARE CAPABLE OF A BRIEF TORNADO AND LOCALLY
   DAMAGING WINDS. 

   ...MIDWEST/LOWER GREAT LAKES...
   SCATTERED LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
   WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK BUOYANCY AND MODEST
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING GRADUAL
   MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES DURING THE DAY. THIS WARMING ALOFT SHOULD
   TEMPER HAIL SIZE GROWTH AND RESULT IN ONLY SMALL HAIL IN THE
   STRONGEST UPDRAFTS.

   ..GRAMS.. 07/29/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

        
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Page last modified: July 29, 2014
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