Jul 30, 2015 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Jul 30 17:21:18 UTC 2015 (20150730 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20150730 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20150730 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 96,284 14,884,437 Detroit, MI...Kansas City, MO...Cleveland, OH...Toledo, OH...Buffalo, NY...
Probabilistic Graphic
20150730 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 95,506 14,760,710 Detroit, MI...Kansas City, MO...Cleveland, OH...Toledo, OH...Buffalo, NY...
   SPC AC 301721

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1221 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

   VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SRN NEB...NRN KS...AND
   NWRN MO...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NRN INDIANA AND OH INTO
   FAR WRN NY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS WELL AS ACROSS
   NORTHERN INDIANA AND OHIO.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL EXTEND FROM THE NRN PLAINS EWD ACROSS THE GREAT
   LAKES AND INTO THE NERN STATES WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W. HIGH
   PRESSURE OVER THE CNTRL U.S. WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SLY
   RETURN FLOW REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS BY LATE IN THE DAY.
   THE PRESENCE OF MID TO UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS
   AND MO VALLEY WILL SUPPORT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A FEW STRONG
   THUNDERSTORMS.

   TO THE E...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC FRONT WILL AFFECT THE
   AREA FROM NRN INDIANA INTO WRN NY BY LATE IN THE DAY...WITH WEAK
   INSTABILITY BUT ENHANCED WIND FIELDS PERHAPS SUPPORTING A FEW STRONG
   STORMS.

   ...SRN NEB/NRN KS INTO NRN MO...
   MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP DUE TO STRONG HEATING AND MID/UPPER
   60S F DEWPOINTS DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE
   DEVELOPING AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WITH SLY WINDS OCCURS ACROSS KS.
   WEAKLY-VEERING AND INCREASING WINDS WITH HEIGHT WOULD APPEAR TO
   FAVOR MULTICELL OR BRIEF SUPERCELL MODES WITH A FEW SEVERE HAIL AND
   WIND REPORTS EXPECTED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

   ...NRN IN...OH...FAR WRN NY...
   FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THE COLD FRONT AND A RIBBON OF 1000 J/KG
   MUCAPE AHEAD SHOULD YIELD AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
   LATE AFTERNOON. INCREASING NWLY WINDS WITH HEIGHT WILL LENGTHEN
   HODOGRAPHS TO THE POINT OF SUPPORTING A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF
   MARGINAL WIND OR HAIL WITH ANY THREAT DISSIPATING BY EVENING.

   ..JEWELL.. 07/30/2015

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z