Feb 26, 2015 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Feb 26 17:18:22 UTC 2015 (20150226 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20150226 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20150226 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20150226 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 261718

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1118 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

   VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FRIDAY ACROSS PARTS
   OF THE NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA...MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN...AND THE
   COLORADO PLATEAU.

   ...DISCUSSION...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SWD ALONG THE WEST COAST ON FRIDAY
   AS A SFC LOW DEEPENS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES ARE FORECAST TO STEEPEN MARKEDLY AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
   TROUGH FROM SRN ORE SEWD ACROSS NV INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
   THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASING SFC TEMPS AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
   ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR
   THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE NRN SIERRA
   AND IN WCNTRL NV WHERE TERRAIN WILL AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF
   CONVECTION. DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY...NONE OF THE THUNDERSTORM
   ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CONUS IS EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
   NIGHT.

   ..BROYLES.. 02/26/2015

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z