SPC AC 211703
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1103 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
Showers and thunderstorms are expected from Texas through a portion
of the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys Thursday. Severe weather is
unlikely, but small hail is possible over the southern Plains.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
A broad belt of southwest flow aloft will persist across the central
part of the country, with an upper high over the western Atlantic
and upper trough encompassing the West. A leading shortwave trough
will move from the southern Plains toward the upper Midwest, while
the primary upper low and jet max sink southward across the Great
At the surface, low level moisture characterized by 60+ dewpoints
will exist ahead of a stalled boundary, from southeast TX to the OH
Valley. Warm advection will likely result in elevated thunderstorms
during the day from central TX early then spreading northeastward
across OK, AR, and MO, and continuing across the Midwest and OH
Valley during the evening. Small hail cannot be ruled out over the
southern Plains given cool temperature profiles. Sporadic isolated
activity is possible elsewhere within the general thunderstorm area,
with little focus for organized storms.
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z