Aug 23, 2016 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Aug 23 17:32:32 UTC 2016 (20160823 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20160823 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160823 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 45,455 1,236,183 Topeka, KS...St. Joseph, MO...Salina, KS...Manhattan, KS...Leavenworth, KS...
MARGINAL 254,528 31,134,798 Chicago, IL...Indianapolis, IN...Milwaukee, WI...Kansas City, MO...Omaha, NE...
Probabilistic Graphic
20160823 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 45,675 1,293,647 Topeka, KS...St. Joseph, MO...Salina, KS...Manhattan, KS...Leavenworth, KS...
5 % 253,910 30,781,104 Chicago, IL...Milwaukee, WI...Kansas City, MO...Omaha, NE...Wichita, KS...
   SPC AC 231732

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1232 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

   VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
   ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KS...SOUTHEAST NEB...NORTHERN MO
   AND SOUTHERN IA...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK
   AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST REGION TO THE TX
   PANHANDLE...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
   HAIL ARE EXPECTED FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS...SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO
   NORTHERN MISSOURI AND IOWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 
   ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
   NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL MISSOURI TO SOUTHERN
   WISCONSIN...SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN...AND INDIANA.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN PER
   SATELLITE IMAGERY...WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE ON WEDNESDAY AS IT
   TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO ONTARIO...WITH STRONGEST
   ATTENDANT MIDLEVEL WINDS SPREADING FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO MN AND
   EVENTUALLY THROUGH NORTHERN WI AND UPPER MI.  DETERMINISTIC MODELS
   TEND TO AGREE THAT THE SOUTHWEST STATES/FOUR CORNERS TROUGH WILL
   WEAKEN THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS MOST OF THE REMAINING MIDLEVEL
   IMPULSES EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN OK AND THE CENTRAL
   PLAINS TO MO/IA TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES.  THESE PERTURBATIONS WILL
   TEND TO DAMPEN IN AMPLITUDE AS THEY MOVE THROUGH A CONFLUENT FLOW
   REGIME LOCATED BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN CANADA UPPER LOW AND A
   SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST STATES.  MODELS TEND
   TO AGREE WITH ONE SUCH MIDLEVEL IMPULSE AS IT MOVES INTO NORTHEAST
   KS/SOUTHEAST NEB INTO NORTHERN MO/SOUTHERN IA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
   AND EVENING...WITH 40-50-KT SOUTHWESTERLY 500-MB WINDS.

   AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO THE SOUTHERN CANADA UPPER
   LOW SHOULD BE MOVING INTO EASTERN MN...WESTERN IA TO NORTH-CENTRAL
   AND WESTERN KS.  THIS BOUNDARY WILL ADVANCE TO THE EAST AND MORE
   SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH...AND SHOULD EXTEND BY MID-LATE WEDNESDAY
   AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL WI TO NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHWEST IA TO THE
   EASTERN BORDER AREA OF NEB/KS...AND THEN WESTWARD INTO WESTERN KS.

   ...NERN KS/SOUTHEAST NEB THROUGH NORTHERN MO/SOUTHERN IA...  
   THE COMBINATION OF AN EXISTING MOIST WARM SECTOR /SURFACE DEW POINTS
   IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5-2.0
   INCHES/...STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /7-7.5 C PER KM/ SPREADING FROM
   NEB/KS INTO IA/NORTHERN MO AND SURFACE HEATING WILL RESULT IN
   MODERATE INSTABILITY /MUCAPE 1500-2500 J PER KG/.  MEANWHILE...
   INITIAL WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS KS/MO ARE EXPECTED TO BACK
   SOME TO SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING AN
   INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES
   INTO THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.  THIS ASCENT COMBINED WITH WEAK HEIGHT
   FALLS AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN VICINITY OF THE
   FRONT.  THE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS COUPLED WITH VERTICALLY VEERING
   WINDS AND STRENGTHENING BULK SHEAR SUGGEST BOTH SUPERCELLS AND LINE
   SEGMENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE... PRODUCING PRIMARILY STRONG WIND GUSTS
   AND HAIL.

   STORM COVERAGE ALONG THE EXTENT OF THE COLD FRONT WILL TEND TO SHIFT
   EQUATORWARD...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS TO MOVE INTO
   IL WEDNESDAY EVENING.  THE EASTERN PART OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA MAY
   NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO PART OF NORTH-CENTRAL IL IN LATER
   OUTLOOKS...IF SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF
   ONGOING/EARLY PERIOD CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS EAST OF
   IA. OTHERWISE...THE OVERALL SEVERE-WEATHER THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY
   DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH WEAKENING INSTABILITY.

   ...MIDWEST TO LOWER MI...
   ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS OF STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF DAY
   2 ACROSS THE UPPER AND MID MS VALLEY.  THIS ACTIVITY AND ATTENDANT
   CLOUDINESS WILL SPREAD EAST AS A MIDLEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
   GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. 
   DESTABILIZATION MAY BE LIMITED...DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS...AND
   THUS LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF NEW STORMS THAT MAY FORM AS THIS
   ACTIVITY SPREADS EAST.

   ...CENTRAL KS TO THE TX PANHANDLE...
   STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR FROM SOUTHERN KS INTO THE TX PANHANDLE AND
   ALSO INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF CO AND NM.  MODELS SUGGEST INSTABILITY
   WILL BE MARGINAL WITH BULK SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. 
   THIS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG
   WINDS WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS THESE AREAS.

   ..PETERS.. 08/23/2016

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z