Jul 1, 2015 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Jul 1 17:30:00 UTC 2015 (20150701 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20150701 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20150701 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 231,560 23,269,078 Memphis, TN...Oklahoma City, OK...Nashville, TN...Atlanta, GA...Tulsa, OK...
MARGINAL 340,258 23,766,528 Charlotte, NC...Raleigh, NC...Greensboro, NC...Lubbock, TX...Durham, NC...
Probabilistic Graphic
20150701 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 232,348 23,202,523 Memphis, TN...Oklahoma City, OK...Nashville, TN...Atlanta, GA...Tulsa, OK...
5 % 341,739 23,797,825 Charlotte, NC...Wichita, KS...Raleigh, NC...Greensboro, NC...Lubbock, TX...
   SPC AC 011730

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1230 PM CDT WED JUL 01 2015

   VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN
   PLAINS THROUGH THE OZARKS TO SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK TO
   THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE
   SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY THURSDAY.  SEVERE STORMS ARE MOST
   LIKELY FROM PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE
   SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING WNWWD FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH
   THE GREAT BASIN DURING DAY 1 SHOULD REMAIN CENTERED OVER NV ON
   THURSDAY...WITH WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS.  THIS
   WILL RESULT IN THE PRIMARY BAND OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO
   BECOME ESTABLISHED DURING DAY 2 FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH
   THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND THEN EASTWARD THROUGH THE TN
   VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.  A SERIES OF PROGRESSIVE
   SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
   REGIME WILL AID IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
   PLAINS THROUGH THE TN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS REGION.

   ...SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TO SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...
   MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN MCS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT 12Z THURSDAY
   FROM SOUTHERN MO/NORTHERN AR INTO PORTIONS OF KY/TN.  THIS ACTIVITY
   IS EXPECTED TO BE FOCUSED WITHIN A WARM ADVECTION ZONE ALONG THE
   NOSE OF LLJ THAT SHOULD VEER THROUGH THE DAY AS IT TRANSLATES ACROSS
   THE LOWER MS VALLEY TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.  WHILE THIS
   MCS MAY NOT BE SEVERE AT 12Z...DIABATIC HEATING AND STEEPENING
   LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY AND ALONG ANY
   BOUNDARIES RELATED TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND/OR CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
   SHOULD PROVE ADEQUATE TO RE-INVIGORATE CONVECTION BY MID-DAY.  GIVEN
   THE PRESENCE OF AFOREMENTIONED STRONGER FLOW ALOFT /35-45 KT/
   ENHANCING BULK SHEAR AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...NEW STORMS SHOULD BE
   CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS AS THE GREATEST RISK. 
   WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
   HAIL.

   MEANWHILE...WEAK MIDLEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS
   THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING
   EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN ALBERTA PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THAT WILL
   TRACK FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY REGION DURING DAY 2. 
   THE SOUTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THIS THROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS
   THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THURSDAY NIGHT.  A SURFACE FRONT EXPECTED TO
   EXTEND FROM SOUTHWEST MO WSWWD THROUGH FAR NORTHERN OK TO THE NRN
   TX/OK PANHANDLES REGION AT 12Z IS EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS
   FOR STRONG AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPMENT.  A SIMILAR POTENTIAL WILL
   EXIST ACROSS SOUTHERN MO AND NORTHERN AR AS A SURFACE LOW AND
   TRAILING PORTION OF THE SAME FRONT SPREAD TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
   THESE AREAS.  PRE-FRONTAL PW VALUES SHOULD BE UP TO AROUND 2 INCHES
   AND COMBINED WITH DIABATIC HEATING AND THE EASTERN EXTENT OF 6.5-7
   C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD RESULT IN A MODERATELY TO VERY
   STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.  STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL
   SUPPORT ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS WHILE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR A SQUALL LINE
   TO EVOLVE FROM THE MO/AR BORDER WWD ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN
   OK INTO THE PANHANDLES REGION...AND ADVANCE SOUTHWARD...GIVEN
   STRENGTHENING NWLY FLOW ALOFT.  SEVERE WIND AND HAIL WILL BE THE
   PRIMARY THREATS...WITH HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES IN LATER OUTLOOKS
   BEING POSSIBLE AS OVERALL STORM COVERAGE...INTENSITY AND EVOLUTION
   BECOMES MORE CERTAIN.

   ..PETERS.. 07/01/2015

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z