May 28, 2016 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat May 28 17:50:41 UTC 2016 (20160528 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20160528 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160528 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 97,648 2,364,230 Lubbock, TX...Amarillo, TX...Abilene, TX...Wichita Falls, TX...Midland, TX...
MARGINAL 217,006 23,581,127 Detroit, MI...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Cleveland, OH...Tulsa, OK...
Probabilistic Graphic
20160528 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 49,437 1,228,015 Lubbock, TX...Amarillo, TX...Midland, TX...Odessa, TX...Big Spring, TX...
15 % 98,275 2,511,097 Lubbock, TX...Amarillo, TX...Abilene, TX...Wichita Falls, TX...Midland, TX...
5 % 215,899 23,169,552 Detroit, MI...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Cleveland, OH...Tulsa, OK...
   SPC AC 281750

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1250 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

   VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE SRN
   PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE SRN AND
   CNTRL PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER  A PORTION OF THE GREAT
   LAKES...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE COASTAL
   CAROLINAS...

   CORRECTED FOR GREAT LAKES PROBABILITY LINE

   ...SUMMARY...
   STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. A MORE
   MARGINAL RISK IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT
   LAKES REGION AND COASTAL CAROLINAS.

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   A SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. NRN STREAM UPPER
   TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION WILL
   DEAMPLIFY AS IT CONTINUES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. UPPER TROUGH OVER
   THE SWRN U.S. WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EWD. DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS
   FEATURE A LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SRN PLAINS.
   HOWEVER...A SRN STREAM IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE SRN
   HIGH PLAINS RIDGE BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

   AT THE SFC A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OH
   VALLEY. TRAILING PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NWD INTO THE
   CNTRL PLAINS. THE DRYLINE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS WRN TX. 

   ...SRN PLAINS AREA...

   RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CURRENTLY RESIDING OVER CNTRL/SRN TX WILL
   ADVECT NWD THROUGH THE WARM SECTOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY IN
   ASSOCIATION WITH A STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL LLJ. MEANWHILE...PLUME OF
   STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES RESIDING OVER THE SRN PLAINS WILL
   PERSIST...AND THESE PROCESSES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A CORRIDOR OF
   MODERATE-STRONG INSTABILITY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS DURING THE
   DAY.  A FEW ELEVATED STORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY IN THIS REGIME FROM
   PORTIONS OF NWRN TX INTO WRN OK AND KS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
   SHIFT ENEWD DURING THE MORNING.  STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
   WITHIN ZONE OF DEEP MIXING IN VICINITY OF DRYLINE AS WELL AS NEAR
   WARM FRONT OR ANY RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES FROM WRN TX INTO WRN OK AND
   SWRN KS. OTHER HIGH BASED STORMS WILL ALSO LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE
   MOUNTAINS OF NM AND INTENSIFY AS THEY SPREAD EWD AND INTERCEPT THE
   DRYLINE BY EARLY EVENING. WHILE MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN MODEST
   WITHIN SYNOPTIC RIDGE...SUFFICIENT FLOW ALOFT AND LOW-LEVEL VEERING
   WILL EXIST TO SUPPORT SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...ESPECIALLY AS THE
   RIDGE FLATTENS WITH APPROACH OF THE SRN STREAM IMPULSE DURING THE
   EARLY EVENING. STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY GROW UPSCALE INTO A FORWARD
   PROPAGATING MCS FROM PORTIONS OF WRN TX/WRN OK SUNDAY EVENING. LARGE
   HAIL WILL BE THE INITIAL PRIMARY THREAT...BUT TRANSITIONING TO
   DAMAGING WIND AS STORMS GROW UPSCALE. A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL
   ALSO BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER WRN TX.  

   ...GREAT LAKES AREA...

   A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY
   AS SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAINTAINS A FETCH OF 60S DEG F DEWPOINTS. 
   WEAK MID-LEVEL ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH WILL OVERSPREAD A
   DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR.  MODEST BUOYANCY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
   SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 
   CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MODEST AND SUPPORT A
   MULTICELLULAR MODE.  A FEW INSTANCES OF ISOLD HAIL AND DMGG WINDS
   MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER STORMS BEFORE THIS ACTIVITY
   WEAKENS DURING THE EVENING.

   ...COASTAL CAROLINAS...

   TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC IS FORECAST TO MOVE
   ONSHORE JUST SOUTH OF CHARLESTON SC EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE BECOMING
   NEARLY STATIONARY. A MARGINAL RISK FOR A TORNADO OR TWO MIGHT EVOLVE
   WITHIN OUTER BANDS...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS
   SYSTEM. SEE LATEST ADVISORIES FROM NHC FOR MORE INFORMATION.

   ..DIAL.. 05/28/2016

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z