May 1, 2016 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun May 1 17:21:51 UTC 2016 (20160501 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20160501 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160501 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 243,964 40,005,908 Charlotte, NC...Washington, DC...New Orleans, LA...Virginia Beach, VA...Atlanta, GA...
Probabilistic Graphic
20160501 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 239,395 39,980,464 Charlotte, NC...Washington, DC...New Orleans, LA...Virginia Beach, VA...Atlanta, GA...
   SPC AC 011721

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1221 PM CDT SUN MAY 01 2016

   VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC SWWD INTO
   THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF
   STATES NORTHWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE
   HAIL OR WIND IS POSSIBLE.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER VA THROUGH THE PERIOD
   WITH A WEAK SFC TROUGH EXTENDING SWWD TOWARD THE CNTRL GULF COAST.
   ALOFT...A BROAD BELT OF SWLY FLOW WILL PERSIST FROM THE GULF COAST
   STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ACROSS NEW
   ENGLAND EARLY...WITH SECONDARY DISTURBANCES EMERGING FROM THE LOWER
   MS VALLEY NEWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
   NIGHTTIME HOURS...AIDING LIFT. THE PRESENCE OF SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
   WILL MAINTAIN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE ENTIRE SERN
   QUARTER OF THE CONUS WITH LOWER 70S F DEWPOINTS NEAR THE GULF COAST
   AND 60S F FARTHER N INTO VA. 

   ..CNTRL GULF COAST NEWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...
   A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAKER LEADING DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NEWD
   ACROSS THE LOWER MS AND OH/TN VALLEYS DURING THE DAY...WITH A
   GRADUAL INCREASE OF STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ALONG THE WEAK SFC
   TROUGH. HEATING AND A MOIST AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT MUCAPE ON THE
   ORDER OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR A FEW ORGANIZED
   AREAS OF STORMS. WIND PROFILES WILL BE MOST SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS
   ACROSS NRN AL...GA...AND TN AS 850 WINDS STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO
   THE UPPER WAVE. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AREAS OF ONGOING
   RAIN AND STORMS WHICH MAY AFFECT AIR MASS QUALITY AND
   DESTABILIZATION WHICH LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY. THIS AREA OF LIFT WILL
   THEN TRANSLATE NEWD DURING THE EVENING TOWARD THE MID
   ATLANTIC...WHEN INSTABILITY WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.
   THEREFORE...ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE OF SEVERE HAIL OR WIND IS
   EXPECTED.

   ..JEWELL.. 05/01/2016

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z