Dec 9, 2016 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Dec 9 17:24:34 UTC 2016 (20161209 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20161209 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20161209 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20161209 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 091724

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1124 AM CST Fri Dec 09 2016

   Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

   ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Aside from one or two lightning strikes possible near the coast of
   Washington and northwest Oregon, thunderstorms are not expected
   Saturday through Saturday night.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   Models maintain a low-amplitude/quasi-zonal flow aloft through this
   forecast period.  A stable boundary layer across much of the U.S.
   will tend to hinder the development of deep moist convection.

   ...Coastal areas of WA and northwest OR...
   Steepening lapse rates across coastal areas of WA/northwest OR
   Saturday afternoon, as a progressive midlevel shortwave trough and
   attendant cold front reach this region, should support low-topped
   convection.  Most of these showers should form offshore within the
   post-frontal air mass before moving ashore.  Forecast soundings
   suggest instability will be quite low, though buoyancy may become
   deep enough for lightning production.  Overall coverage is expected
   to remain less than 10 percent, precluding the inclusion of a
   general thunderstorm outlook area.

   ..Peters.. 12/09/2016

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z