Apr 27, 2015 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Apr 27 17:14:06 UTC 2015 (20150427 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20150427 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20150427 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 25,419 2,366,093 Mobile, AL...Tallahassee, FL...Gulfport, MS...Pensacola, FL...Biloxi, MS...
MARGINAL 100,822 20,490,480 New Orleans, LA...Miami, FL...Tampa, FL...Hialeah, FL...Baton Rouge, LA...
Probabilistic Graphic
20150427 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 25,620 2,367,237 Mobile, AL...Tallahassee, FL...Gulfport, MS...Pensacola, FL...Biloxi, MS...
5 % 100,612 20,495,783 New Orleans, LA...Miami, FL...Tampa, FL...Hialeah, FL...Baton Rouge, LA...
   SPC AC 271714

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1214 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

   VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF SERN LA AND SRN
   MS INTO SWRN GA AND THE FL PENINSULA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
   THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST STATES TUESDAY.  ISOLATED SEVERE
   STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

   ...CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF STATES...
   A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS WILL DEAMPLIFY AND
   MIGRATE EWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. 
   COINCIDENTLY...A 70 KT MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL TRANSLATE THROUGH
   THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND EWD ALONG THE CNTRL GULF COAST.  A
   SIGNIFICANT MCS ONGOING MIDDAY MONDAY WILL LIKELY TRACK FROM THE
   MOUTH OF THE MS RIVER INTO THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH THE
   EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY AS A RESULT OF THIS CONVECTION RELEGATED TO THE
   CONTINENTAL SHELF WATERS.  NONETHELESS...AS THE LOW LEVELS RESPOND
   TO THE APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM FROM THE WEST AND AIRMASS RECOVERY
   ENSUES...A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND TRACK EWD
   INVOF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST PLAIN.  IT IS POSSIBLE THE BOUNDARY
   WILL ADVANCE NWD AND THE MARITIME AIRMASS TO ITS S WILL ENCROACH AND
   PERHAPS PENETRATE THE COAST AND SPREAD INLAND LEADING TO SUFFICIENT
   DESTABILIZATION FOR STRONG UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT.  THE STRONG SHEAR
   DENOTED BY MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD SUPPORT AN ISOLD ORGANIZED SEVERE
   RISK...INCLUDING THE THREAT FOR DMGG WINDS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR
   TWO.  DUE TO CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME REGARDING
   BOUNDARY PLACEMENT AND DESTABILIZATION...THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN
   UNCHANGED UNTIL DETAILS BECOME LESS NEBULOUS IN LATER OUTLOOK
   UPDATES.

   ..SMITH.. 04/27/2015

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z