Jan 30, 2015 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Jan 30 17:30:01 UTC 2015 (20150130 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20150130 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20150130 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20150130 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 301730

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1130 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

   VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY FROM
   SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO INTO PARTS OF TEXAS
   SATURDAY NIGHT.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   SPLIT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN PREVALENT OVER THE CONUS INTO
   SATURDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL AMPLIFY/DIG
   SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WHILE IN THE SOUTHERN
   STREAM...AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD OVER NORTHWEST
   MEXICO/ADJACENT SOUTHWEST STATES. 

   ...SOUTHERN AZ/NM TO SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL TX...
   GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHWEST STATES/NORTHWEST MEXICO UPPER
   LOW...GLANCING DPVA/UPPER JET EXIT REGION AND A WEAK CAPE
   ENVIRONMENT WILL INFLUENCE SHOWER/SPORADIC THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF AZ/NM DURING THE DAY.

   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AS FAR EAST AS PARTS OF
   SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL TX SATURDAY NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH INCREASING
   WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES THAT ARE AT LEAST
   MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

   ..GUYER.. 01/30/2015

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z