Mar 27, 2015 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Mar 27 16:55:50 UTC 2015 (20150327 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20150327 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20150327 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20150327 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 271655

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1155 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

   VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
   GREAT PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE ERN U.S. TO THE WRN ATLANTIC
   WITH SECONDARY FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND STRONG COLD FRONT
   AFFECTING THE NRN ROCKIES AND PLAINS LATE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
   ERN HALF OF THE CONUS WILL RESULT IN STABLE CONDITIONS...BUT STRONG
   LIFT WITH THE NRN PLAINS TROUGH AND VERY WEAK INSTABILITY WILL
   RESULT IN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM ERN MT INTO THE CENTRAL
   DAKOTAS.

   ...ERN MT INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS...
   LATE AFTERNOON HIGH-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY ALONG THE COLD
   FRONT OVER ERN MT...THEN INTO WRN ND BY 00Z. ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS WILL
   BE LOW AND INSTABILITY RELATIVELY WEAK...STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
   WILL EXIST ALONG WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR ORGANIZED STORMS.
   A FEW STORMS MAY BE CELLULAR INITIALLY WITH SUB-SEVERE HAIL. THE
   MOST LIKELY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE WIND GIVEN A STRONG
   FRONT. THE NAM MODEL LOOKS TOO ROBUST WITH THE MOISTURE AND
   INSTABILITY LEVELS COMPARED TO OTHER MODEL OUTPUT...THUS LOW WIND
   PROBS WILL NOT BE ADDED AT THIS TIME.

   ..JEWELL.. 03/27/2015

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z