Sep 21, 2014 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Sep 21 16:46:51 UTC 2014 (20140921 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20140921 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140921 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20140921 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 55,682 6,411,307 Denver, CO...Colorado Springs, CO...Aurora, CO...Lakewood, CO...Fort Collins, CO...
   SPC AC 211646

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1146 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

   VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   MAINLY SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
   COLORADO FRONT RANGE...WITH GENERAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS A
   LARGE PORTION OF THE ROCKIES AS WELL AS ALONG THE GULF COAST AND
   FLORIDA. ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
   SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPPER RIDGE FROM SK SWD
   ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH A LONG-WAVE TROUGH FROM THE NERN STATES
   ACROSS MUCH OF ERN CANADA. BEHIND THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE AN
   APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL AFFECT THE PACIFIC NW LATE
   IN THE PERIOD AND INTO TUESDAY WITH RAIN AND WIND.

   BENEATH THE RIDGE ITSELF WILL BE AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH
   WILL AFFECT THE CNTRL AND NRN ROCKIES WITH SLIGHTLY INCREASED WLY
   FLOW ALOFT AND SOME MOISTENING. 

   TO THE E...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AFFECT GA INTO THE
   CAROLINAS AS IT BECOMES DETACHED FROM THE LARGER-SCALE TROUGH TO THE
   N. THIS WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE AREA WITH A FEW STRONG DAYTIME
   STORMS.

   ...CO FRONT RANGE INTO FAR SERN WY...
   WHILE A LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS FROM THE
   PLAINS EWD TO THE ATLANTIC COAST...SLY FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING
   SHOULD YIELD ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CO FRONT RANGE BY
   AFTERNOON. A THREAT OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL EXIST DUE TO
   COOLING PROFILES ALOFT AND MARGINAL WIND PROFILES FOR LONG-LIVED
   CELLULAR STORM MODE. THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
   TERRAIN AND JUST DOWNSTREAM DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS BEFORE
   CONVECTIVE INHIBITION INCREASES MARKEDLY ACROSS THE PLAINS.

   ...SERN SC INTO SERN GA...
   STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL EXTEND
   FROM SRN SD INTO SRN GA. MID TO UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON
   THE COOL SIDE DUE TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT TO
   FLOW ALOFT. LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK SUGGESTING
   MULTICELLULAR STORM MODE BUT DEVELOPMENT WILL BE FOCUSED AND PERHAPS
   QUITE VIGOROUS AS IT COINCIDES WITH PEAK HEATING. PRECIPITABLE WATER
   VALUES NEAR 1.75 INCHES AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST
   LOCALLY STRONG TO DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS MAY BE PRODUCED WITH THESE
   STORMS ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL.

   ..JEWELL.. 09/21/2014

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z