Aug 30, 2015 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Aug 30 17:26:15 UTC 2015 (20150830 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20150830 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20150830 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20150830 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 301726

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1226 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

   VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON
   MONDAY ACROSS A LARGE AREA FROM EASTERN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
   EASTWARD TO THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHWARD ONTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
   ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON
   FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A WEAKENING UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING NEWD
   ACROSS THE WRN U.S. WITH TIME...AND WILL BE SHUNTED NEWD INTO
   CENTRAL CANADA WITH TIME AS IT IMPINGES ON THE PERSISTENT CENTRAL
   NOAM RIDGE.  THIS WILL YIELD AN OVERALL DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW
   FIELD OVER THE CONUS THIS PERIOD.  MEANWHILE FARTHER S...A VERY
   WEAK/ELONGATED LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE SRN PLAINS/OZARKS VICINITY.

   AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING WRN
   TROUGH WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE N CENTRAL U.S. AND WEAKEN WITH
   TIME...AS THE PARENT LOW LIFTS NEWD ACROSS WRN ONTARIO AND
   APPROACHES HUDSON BAY LATE.  ELSEWHERE...A WEAK/NONDESCRIPT PATTERN
   WILL PREVAIL.

   MAIN AREAS OF CONVECTION THIS PERIOD ARE FORECAST TO EXTEND NEWD
   FROM THE SWRN CONUS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE N CENTRAL U.S.
   -- WHERE THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO LIE DURING THE
   AFTERNOON.  SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ALSO BE WIDESPREAD FROM THE S
   CENTRAL STATES EWD/NEWD ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN HALF OF THE U.S.
   INVOF THE BROAD/WEAK UPPER LOW.  IN ALL AREAS HOWEVER...THE
   BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT APPEARS UNSUPPORTIVE OF APPRECIABLE SEVERE
   RISK.

   ..GOSS.. 08/30/2015

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z