Jul 1, 2016 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Jul 1 17:13:10 UTC 2016 (20160701 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20160701 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160701 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 216,085 15,943,382 Charlotte, NC...Kansas City, MO...Wichita, KS...Raleigh, NC...Greensboro, NC...
Probabilistic Graphic
20160701 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 216,829 16,058,328 Charlotte, NC...Kansas City, MO...Wichita, KS...Raleigh, NC...Greensboro, NC...
   SPC AC 011713

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1213 PM CDT FRI JUL 01 2016

   VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE  CAROLINAS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN MT INTO WRN ND...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED STORMS...SOME STRONG TO SEVERE...ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS
   OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED
   MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN
   MONTANA...AND PERHAPS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NEWD ACROSS QUEBEC WITH LEADING
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITING NEW ENGLAND EARLY IN THE DAY. TO THE SW...A
   BROAD AREA OF MODEST WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN FROM THE GREAT LAKES
   INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. TO THE W...RELATIVELY WEAK ZONAL FLOW WILL
   EXIST OVER THE WRN AND CNTRL STATES...WITH A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   ACROSS BOTH MT AND KS HELPING TO SUPPORT CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS.
   AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EWD FROM THE VALLEY INTO
   NEW ENGLAND WITH A TRAILING FRONT SINKING SWD ACROSS NC.
   HERE...HEATING AND MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. TO
   THE W...LOW PRESSURE WILL ACCOMPANY THE CNTRL PLAINS DISTURBANCE
   WITH SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR THE LOW AND EWD INTO WRN MO
   ALONG A WARM FRONT AIDED BY A BROAD SLY LOW-LEVEL JET...ALSO
   ENHANCING HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. ELSEWHERE...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
   TROUGH WILL FORM OVER ERN MT WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND MODEST
   WLY FLOW HELPING TO PRODUCE A FEW STRONG STORMS LATE.

   ...CNTRL PLAINS...
   AREAS OF STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG
   WARM ADVECTION WITH A 50 KT SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET AND WARM FRONT ACROSS
   NRN KS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST AND EXPAND EWD INTO WRN MO DURING
   THE DAY. LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER WITH HEIGHT SUGGESTING SOME
   ROTATION POTENTIAL BUT STORM MODE IS LIKELY TO BE DISORGANIZED GIVEN
   MARGINAL WINDS ALOFT. LATER IN THE DAY...STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR E
   OF THE COLD FRONT INTO CNTRL KS...AND S OF THE WARM FRONT. THIS
   SHOULD RESULT IN NUMEROUS STORMS OVERALL BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS
   KS...BUT THE SEVERE THREAT MIGHT BE MORE ISOLATED GIVEN LARGE NUMBER
   OF STORMS AND MARGINAL SHEAR PROFILES. GIVEN DEEP MIXED LAYERS IN
   THE LOW-LEVELS AND AMPLE MOISTURE...SOME SEVERE OUTFLOW WILL BE
   POSSIBLE...AND PERHAPS MARGINAL HAIL. IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAIN IS
   EXPECTED AS STORMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY. A SMALL SLIGHT RISK UPGRADE MAY
   NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS PARTS OF KS IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

   ...ERN MT INTO WRN ND...
   STRONG HEATING WILL LEAD TO DEEP MIXED LAYERS AND MARGINAL
   INSTABILITY AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE 50S F.  SCATTERED STORMS
   SHOULD FORM WITHIN THE BROAD LOW-PRESSURE TROUGH OVER E CNTRL
   MT...WITH A FEW POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE WITH HAIL AND WIND. THIS
   MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SEVERE WILL BE NEAR THE SFC MOIST AXIS WHERE
   DEWPOINTS AND INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED. THE THREAT MAY REACH
   FAR WRN ND BEFORE CIN INCREASES DURING THE EVENING AND STORMS
   DISSIPATE.

   ...CAROLINAS...
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG
   THE WEAK/STALLED FRONT AIDED BY STRONG HEATING WHICH WILL ERODE
   INHIBITION. WHILE BULK INSTABILITY VALUES WOULD FAVOR STRONG
   STORMS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 4.5
   C/KM ALONG WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT. THIS IS MOST APPARENT
   IN THE NAM BUT POOR LAPSE RATE SIGNAL ALSO EXTENDS TO GFS AND ECMWF.
   GIVEN THIS...ALONG WITH DEEP SHEAR ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR ANY
   ORGANIZED STORMS AND WEAK MEAN FLOW IN THE LOW-LEVELS...HAVE
   DECREASED SEVERE PROBABILITIES WITH ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE EXPECTED
   AT THIS TIME. LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE
   POSSIBLE.

   ..JEWELL.. 07/01/2016

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z