Feb 21, 2018 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Feb 21 17:03:22 UTC 2018 (20180221 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20180221 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20180221 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20180221 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 211703

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1103 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

   Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Showers and thunderstorms are expected from Texas through a portion
   of the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys Thursday. Severe weather is
   unlikely, but small hail is possible over the southern Plains.

   ...Synopsis and Discussion...
   A broad belt of southwest flow aloft will persist across the central
   part of the country, with an upper high over the western Atlantic
   and upper trough encompassing the West. A leading shortwave trough
   will move from the southern Plains toward the upper Midwest, while
   the primary upper low and jet max sink southward across the Great
   Basin.

   At the surface, low level moisture characterized by 60+ dewpoints
   will exist ahead of a stalled boundary, from southeast TX to the OH
   Valley. Warm advection will likely result in elevated thunderstorms
   during the day from central TX early then spreading northeastward
   across OK, AR, and MO, and continuing across the Midwest and OH
   Valley during the evening. Small hail cannot be ruled out over the
   southern Plains given cool temperature profiles. Sporadic isolated
   activity is possible elsewhere within the general thunderstorm area,
   with little focus for organized storms.

   ..Jewell.. 02/21/2018

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z