Oct 20, 2014 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Oct 20 17:18:19 UTC 2014 (20141020 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20141020 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20141020 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20141020 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 201718

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1218 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

   VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE INTERIOR
   WEST...WESTERN AND SOUTHERN TEXAS...SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
   PENINSULA...AND PERHAPS OVER A PORTION OF THE NORTHEASTERN STATES.

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED
   LOW AS IT MOVES EWD...REACHING THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END
   OF DAY 2. CUTOFF UPPER LOW CIRCULATION OVER NRN MEXICO SHOULD DRIFT
   SLOWLY EAST TOWARD WRN TX DURING THE DAY. MEANWHILE...UPPER TROUGH
   NOW APPROACHING THE WRN U.S. COAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE CNTRL
   AND NRN ROCKIES. 

   AT THE SFC A LEE TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE NRN AND
   CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...WHILE A COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIES WRN U.S. UPPER
   TROUGH THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES. AN OCCLUDED LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH
   THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND OFF THE ERN U.S. SEABOARD IN ASSOCIATION
   WITH THE EVOLVING UPPER LOW OVER THE ERN STATES. 

   ...SRN THROUGH CNTRL ROCKIES AREA...

   PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT NWD AHEAD OF
   THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH CLOSED UPPER
   LOW CIRCULATION OVER NRN MEXICO. WEAK INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED AS THE
   BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS AND WILL PROMOTE SCATTERED CONVECTION INCLUDING
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
   EVENING.  

   ...NERN STATES...

   COLD AIR ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THE EVOLVING UPPER LOW AND ASCENT
   ASSOCIATED WITH VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING THROUGH THIS FEATURE
   SHOULD PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK INSTABILITY AND SCATTERED
   SHOWERS OVER THE NERN STATES. THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN VERY
   WEAK /GENERALLY AOB 300 J/KG/ IT MIGHT BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A MORE GENERAL AREA OF SCATTERED
   SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

   ...SRN FL...

   SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITHIN PLUME
   OF DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY THAT SHOULD
   CHARACTERIZE THE SRN FL PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR TUESDAY.

   ..DIAL.. 10/20/2014

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z