Mar 28, 2017 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Mar 28 17:41:42 UTC 2017 (20170328 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20170328 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20170328 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
ENHANCED 79,992 4,552,319 Shreveport, LA...Little Rock, AR...Tyler, TX...Fort Smith, AR...Longview, TX...
SLIGHT 167,236 15,571,422 Houston, TX...Memphis, TN...Tulsa, OK...Springfield, MO...Pasadena, TX...
MARGINAL 154,873 19,649,456 Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Kansas City, MO...Arlington, TX...
Probabilistic Graphic
20170328 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 35,126 2,140,320 Shreveport, LA...Little Rock, AR...Bossier City, LA...North Little Rock, AR...Pine Bluff, AR...
30 % 80,561 4,606,732 Shreveport, LA...Little Rock, AR...Tyler, TX...Fort Smith, AR...Longview, TX...
15 % 166,482 15,461,794 Houston, TX...Memphis, TN...Tulsa, OK...Springfield, MO...Pasadena, TX...
5 % 155,680 19,715,544 Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Kansas City, MO...Arlington, TX...
   SPC AC 281741

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1241 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

   Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
   AFTERNOON AND NIGHT OVER MUCH OF AR...NORTHWEST LA...EAST TX AND
   EXTREME SOUTHEAST OK...

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
   ENHANCED RISK FROM SOUTHEAST KS...SOUTHERN MO...AND SOUTHERN IL TO
   THE MIDDLE TX COAST...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday into Wednesday night
   from parts of east Texas, eastern Oklahoma, and southeast Kansas
   into the lower and middle Mississippi Valley.

   ...Synopsis...
   A strong shortwave trough will move steadily east across the
   southern half of the Great Plains on Wednesday into Wednesday night
   toward the lower and middle MS Valley, while an embedded closed
   midlevel cyclone tracks from northwest TX into OK and KS.  An
   upstream shortwave trough is expected to dig southeastward from the
   southwest states through northern Mexico toward the lower Rio Grande
   Valley late Wednesday night.  At the surface, an elongated area of
   low pressure is expected to extend from southwest OK to
   south-central/southeast KS at 12Z Wednesday, with models suggesting
   low pressure will tend to consolidate and reach southwest MO region
   by 12Z Thursday.  A cold front/dryline is forecast to extend
   southward through central OK to deep south TX at the start of day 2.
   This front will shift slowly east into eastern OK and east TX by
   Wednesday afternoon.  A warm front will move north across much of AR
   and the Mid-South, reaching southeast KS, southern MO to western TN
   by 30/00Z.  A secondary cold front surging to the east/southeast
   across the southern Plains should overtake the lead cold front late
   Wednesday night and extend from western AR to off the TX coast by
   12Z Thursday.

   ...Southern Plains to lower-mid MS Valley...
   Models continue to indicate the widespread thunderstorms across the
   southern Plains tonight should diminish in intensity and severe
   threat Wednesday morning over east TX, east OK into southeast KS to
   southwest MO.  Midlevel impulses translating through the eastern
   periphery of the closed low Wednesday morning and afternoon should
   support renewed storm development/intensification from parts of
   northeast TX through eastern OK to southeast KS along the first cold
   front.  Greater destabilization on the northern extent has resulted
   in a little northward expansion of the Slight risk area.  Although
   strong shear vectors oriented nearly parallel to the cold front
   suggest a linear storm mode, the strength of the bulk shear /50+ kt/
   and moderate instability support embedded supercells.  Thus, all
   severe hazards will be possible, except farther north into northeast
   KS where storms should remain elevated.

   Meanwhile, the next in a series of midlevel shortwave troughs will
   move toward the Ark-La-Tex region Wednesday evening and night, and
   strong 500-mb 2-hour height falls of 60-90 meters are expected
   across the Ark-La-Tex and eastern OK to the lower and mid MS Valley.
   Additional storms will develop across east TX Wednesday afternoon
   where the environment will be moderately unstable with strengthening
   effective bulk shear resulting in organized storms producing all
   severe hazards.  A 50+ southerly low-level jet developing Wednesday
   evening and shifting east after dark will increase the severe-
   weather threat resulting in a risk of supercells and bowing
   structures producing tornadoes (possibly strong), as well as large
   hail and damaging winds.  

   ...Middle TX Coast to Deep South TX...
   The southern extent of the first cold front is expected to move
   offshore Wednesday morning of the middle and southern TX coast,
   though moisture return in expected Wednesday night with the approach
   of the digging shortwave trough and the approach of the secondary
   cold front.  Steep midlevel lapse rates spreading atop the moisture
   return will support moderate instability, with a few strong to
   severe storms possible late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning
   as the cold front reaches the middle and south TX coastal region.

   ..Peters.. 03/28/2017

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z