Sep 27, 2016 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Sep 27 17:05:19 UTC 2016 (20160927 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20160927 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160927 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 39,403 8,310,907 Charlotte, NC...Raleigh, NC...Greensboro, NC...Durham, NC...Winston-Salem, NC...
Probabilistic Graphic
20160927 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 39,195 8,320,468 Charlotte, NC...Raleigh, NC...Greensboro, NC...Durham, NC...Winston-Salem, NC...
   SPC AC 271705

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1205 PM CDT TUE SEP 27 2016

   VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   THUNDERSTORMS MAY POSE SOME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
   PIEDMONT OF VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT LARGE-SCALE RIDGING WITHIN THE
   MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WILL REBUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
   CENTRAL CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER DURING THIS PERIOD.  EXPANSION EASTWARD
   ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC ALSO APPEARS LIKELY...AROUND THE
   NORTHWESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP CLOSED LOW NOW OVER
   THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.  AS IT BECOMES INCREASINGLY CUT OFF
   FROM THE WESTERLIES...A GRADUAL FILLING OF CYCLONE STILL APPEARS
   PROBABLE...WITH THE CENTER OF THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION EXPECTED TO
   REDEVELOP SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY...TO THE
   WEST OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THIS
   WILL LARGELY OCCUR AS A SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE DIGS AROUND ITS
   SOUTHWESTERN INTO SOUTHERN PERIPHERY...ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO
   VALLEY...TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.  IN RESPONSE TO THESE
   DEVELOPMENTS...ANOTHER INTRUSION OF COOL AIR IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS
   SOUTHEAST OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/CENTRAL PLAINS REGION
   TOWARD THE GULF COAST.  AN INITIAL STALLING SURFACE
   FRONT...EXTENDING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND CAROLINA/GEORGIA
   PIEDMONT INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER
   IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK LOW MIGRATING NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE MID
   ATLANTIC COAST.  MORE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING SURFACE PRESSURE
   FALLS AND NEW LOW DEVELOPMENT TO THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN
   APPALACHIANS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

   ...SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION...
   SUBSTANTIVE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND THE MID/UPPER JET CORE
   ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING CUT-OFF LOW MAY NOT BEGIN TO SPREAD
   EAST OF THE CREST OF THE CENTRAL/ SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS UNTIL LATE
   WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  HOWEVER...SHARPLY CYCLONIC AND DIFLUENT MID/UPPER
   FLOW TO THE EAST OF THE DIGGING LOW COULD PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR
   INCREASING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS INTO
   THE VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN CAROLINA PIEDMONT BY THE 29/00-03Z TIME
   FRAME...IF NOT A BIT BEFORE.  IF THIS OCCURS...PERHAPS COINCIDING
   WITH THE ONSET OF AT LEAST WEAK MID-LEVEL COOLING...IT APPEARS
   POSSIBLE THE RESIDUAL MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY DRIVEN BY
   DAYTIME HEATING OF A SEASONABLY MOIST AIR MASS COULD CONTRIBUTE TO
   VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.  GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CAPE UP TO 1000+
   J/KG IS POSSIBLE.  BENEATH 30-40 KT SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
   LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...IT MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
   THE ENVIRONMENT COULD BECOME MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE TO AN ISOLATED
   SUPERCELL OR TWO...BEFORE INSTABILITY WANES OVERNIGHT.

   ..KERR.. 09/27/2016

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z