Oct 24, 2014 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Oct 24 16:50:00 UTC 2014 (20141024 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20141024 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20141024 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 37,632 1,414,591 Redding, CA...Chico, CA...Medford, OR...Yuba City, CA...Grants Pass, OR...
Probabilistic Graphic
20141024 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 37,683 1,409,065 Redding, CA...Chico, CA...Medford, OR...Yuba City, CA...Grants Pass, OR...
   SPC AC 241650

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1150 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

   VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NRN CA INTO SWRN OREGON...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM
   NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO SOUTHWESTERN OREGON. A FEW STORMS MAY BE
   CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS...SMALL HAIL...OR A
   WEAK/BRIEF TORNADO.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ASHORE THE PACIFIC COAST WITH JET STREAK
   SITUATED FROM NRN CA INTO ERN OREGON BY MIDDAY. STRONG COOLING ALOFT
   AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO WEAK INSTABILITY FOR A FEW STRONG
   STORMS FROM NRN CA INTO SWRN OREGON.

   TO THE E...AN INTENSE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH LEFT-ENTRANCE REGION OF
   THE UPPER JET WILL NOSE INTO LAKE ONTARIO/NEW YORK DURING THE
   AFTERNOON AND ACROSS NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. SUBSTANTIAL COOLING
   ALOFT AND LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY RESULT IN LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION
   ALONG A COLD FRONT DESPITE MINUSCULE INSTABILITY.

   ...NRN CA INTO SWRN OREGON...
   A LEADING BAND OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
   WILL AFFECT THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH SHEAR PROFILES
   WILL BE STRONG...LAPSE RATES WILL NOT FAVOR SEVERE ACTIVITY.

   THE GREATER CHANCE OF A FEW LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS WILL OCCUR WHEN
   COOLING ALOFT OVERSPREADS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY
   WITH MUCAPE VALUES TO AROUND 500 J/KG DEVELOPING. SHEAR PROFILES
   WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS WHICH MAY EXIST BOTH
   OVER THE WATER AND INLAND WHERE CONVERGENCE IS ENHANCED DUE TO
   TERRAIN INFLUENCES. SMALL HAIL...LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND AN
   ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE.

   ..JEWELL.. 10/24/2014

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z