Feb 8, 2016 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Feb 8 17:17:24 UTC 2016 (20160208 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20160208 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160208 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20160208 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 081717

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1117 AM CST MON FEB 08 2016

   VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

   ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNLIKELY ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES ON
   TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL EXIST OVER THE CONUS
   THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGHLIGHTED BY A WESTERN STATES UPPER RIDGE WITH A
   TROUGH IN THE EAST. THE PATTERN-ASSOCIATED PREVALENCE OF COLD/STABLE
   CONDITIONS WILL LARGELY PRECLUDE A RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON
   TUESDAY.

   ...MID-ATLANTIC STATES/DELMARVA...
   DIURNAL HEATING IN CONJUNCTION WITH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   IN PROXIMITY TO THE EASTWARD-SHIFTING MID-LEVEL COLD POCKET COULD
   RESULT IN A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO TUESDAY. THIS WOULD MAINLY BE
   ACROSS DE AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF VA/MD. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL
   SCENARIO CURRENTLY APPEARS TOO MARGINAL/SPECULATIVE TO WARRANT A
   10-PERCENT THUNDERSTORM AREA.

   ..GUYER.. 02/08/2016

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z