SPC AC 091724
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 AM CST Fri Dec 09 2016
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
Aside from one or two lightning strikes possible near the coast of
Washington and northwest Oregon, thunderstorms are not expected
Saturday through Saturday night.
Models maintain a low-amplitude/quasi-zonal flow aloft through this
forecast period. A stable boundary layer across much of the U.S.
will tend to hinder the development of deep moist convection.
...Coastal areas of WA and northwest OR...
Steepening lapse rates across coastal areas of WA/northwest OR
Saturday afternoon, as a progressive midlevel shortwave trough and
attendant cold front reach this region, should support low-topped
convection. Most of these showers should form offshore within the
post-frontal air mass before moving ashore. Forecast soundings
suggest instability will be quite low, though buoyancy may become
deep enough for lightning production. Overall coverage is expected
to remain less than 10 percent, precluding the inclusion of a
general thunderstorm outlook area.
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z