Apr 18, 2014 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Apr 18 17:29:49 UTC 2014 (20140418 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20140418 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140418 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20140418 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 181728

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1228 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

   VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EARLY IN THE PERIOD ALONG THE
   EAST COAST OF FLORIDA...AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF
   GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA.  OTHERWISE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
   EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES DURING THE
   AFTERNOON...AND INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY DURING THE OVERNIGHT
   HOURS.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   WHILE A FAST/PROGRESSIVE BELT OF UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
   NRN U.S. AND SRN CANADA...A SLOWER FLOW STREAM OVER THE SRN 2/3 OF
   THE U.S. IS PROGGED TO PERSIST DAY 2.  TWO TROUGHS WITHIN THIS SRN
   STREAM FLOW FIELD -- ONE CROSSING THE SWRN U.S./INTERMOUNTAIN REGION
   AND A SECOND TRAVERSING THE SERN STATES -- WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
   THE PRIMARY AREAS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS FORECAST.

   OVER THE WRN STATES...SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
   WITH A PRONOUNCED/TYPICAL DIURNAL PEAK...THOUGH SOME NOCTURNAL
   INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL SLYS ACROSS THE PLAINS MAY SUPPORT AN EWD
   CONTINUATION OF CONVECTION INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

   IN THE SOUTHEAST...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INVOF AN ADVANCING COLD
   FRONT ARE FORECAST TO BE MOVING ACROSS FL EARLY...BUT MAY REDEVELOP
   INVOF THE UPPER LOW DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM WITHIN A LARGER AREA
   OF SHOWER ACTIVITY INVOF THE UPPER LOW.  WHILE A LIMITED THREAT FOR
   AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE
   DAY 2 PERIOD OVER FL...RISK DOES NOT APPEAR LARGE ENOUGH ATTM TO
   INTRODUCE SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

   ..GOSS.. 04/18/2014

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z