Apr 24, 2018 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Apr 24 17:16:14 UTC 2018 (20180424 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20180424 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20180424 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 22,147 1,289,302 Laredo, TX...Mission, TX...Pharr, TX...Edinburg, TX...Weslaco, TX...
Probabilistic Graphic
20180424 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 22,602 1,358,122 Laredo, TX...Mission, TX...Pharr, TX...Edinburg, TX...Del Rio, TX...
   SPC AC 241716

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1216 PM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

   Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   SOUTH TX...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated strong/severe thunderstorms may develop along the
   lower/middle Rio Grande Valley region of south Texas.

   ...South TX...

   Upper ridging is expected to maintain its position across the Great
   Basin/northern Intermountain region through the day2 period. As a
   result, strong short-wave trough will dig southeast across the
   central Plains into the lower MS Valley by 26/12z. In the wake of
   this feature, pressure rises across the high Plains will force a
   pronounced cold front into extreme northern Mexico/south-central TX
   by 18z...then into the lower Valley region by early evening. Latest
   guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating will be noted ahead
   of the surging cold front. Inhibition should weaken such that
   convection will develop along the front and across higher terrain
   west of the international border. Although the primary
   moisture/instability axis will extend west of the Rio Grande River,
   forecast storm motion suggests strong storms may cross the border
   into the lower Valley. Several thunderstorm clusters, or perhaps a
   few supercells, will propagate south-southeast within deep
   northwesterly flow regime and for these reasons have added 5% severe
   probs to portions of south TX. If it becomes more clear that strong
   convection will propagate farther east then 15% severe probs may be
   added to the lower Valley.

   ...Middle Atlantic/Southern New England...

   Strong low-level warm advection will spread across southern New
   England early in the period ahead of ejecting upper trough. Modified
   warm sector will struggle to advance inland but large-scale ascent
   and weak elevated instability suggest some of the stronger
   convection could generate a few lightning strikes.

   ..Darrow.. 04/24/2018

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z