Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 131707
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1107 AM CST MON FEB 13 2012
   
   VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   
   SEVERAL QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE
   CONUS INTO THE DAY2 PERIOD.  BUOYANCY SHOULD PROVE ADEQUATE IN AT
   LEAST THREE REGIONS TO WARRANT AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES FOR
   CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING.
   
   ...ERN GULF COAST...
   
   WEAK HEIGHT RISES WILL OVERSPREAD THE ERN GULF STATES IN THE WAKE OF
   DEAMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE THAT WILL EJECT ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
   STATES EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE A MODIFIED
   GULF AIRMASS WILL RETURN TO COASTAL MS/AL/FL PANHANDLE JUST AHEAD OF
   A WEAK SFC LOW.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THIS REGION SUGGEST
   SUFFICIENTLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES JUST NORTH OF THE WARM
   FRONT TO YIELD A FEW HUNDRED J/KG ELEVATED CAPE AND ISOLATED
   THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION ZONE EARLY. 
   ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR IT/S NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR WHETHER LOW LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO INITIATE DEEP UPDRAFTS.  EVEN
   SO THE OVERALL THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LOW ACROSS THE
   REGION AND GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING THE DAY.
   
   ...SRN/CNTRL PLAINS...
   
   A FOCUSED ZONE OF MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL OVERSPREAD CO/NM
   BEFORE SPREADING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. 
   LLJ WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS TX/OK/KS WHICH WILL
   ALLOW MOISTURE TO RETURN LATE IN THE PERIOD.  IN ALL LIKELIHOOD
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE RECOVERING WARM
   SECTOR AS CAPPING WILL PROVE DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME.  HOWEVER
   INCREASING WARM ADVECTION ACROSS NRN OK/KS COULD RESULT IN
   ISOLATED-SCT ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT.  LATEST NAM
   GENERATES SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS NRN REGION SUCH THAT
   500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE WILL BE OBSERVED BY 15/12Z.  THIS IS PREDICATED
   ON MOISTURE RECOVERING ATOP THE COOLER RECOVERING AIRMASS.  WILL NOT
   INTRODUCE SEVERE PROBS FOR THIS REGION AS CONFIDENCE IN ELEVATED
   THUNDERSTORMS ROOTING INTO A QUALITY...LATE SURGING MOISTURE FIELD
   IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH ATTM.
   
   ...4-CORNERS REGION...
   
   STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL OVERSPREAD THE 4-CORNERS REGION OF SERN
   UT/NERN AZ INTO SRN CO/NM BY MID DAY...IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF STRONG
   MID LEVEL SPEED MAX.  WITH H5 TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO COOL INTO THE
   MINUS 25-30C RANGE IT APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
   FORM...ESPECIALLY OVER THE FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN.
   
   ..DARROW.. 02/13/2012
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z