Jul 5, 2015 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Jul 5 05:01:34 UTC 2015 (20150705 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20150705 0600Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20150705 0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 337,070 23,595,719 Milwaukee, WI...Oklahoma City, OK...Kansas City, MO...Wichita, KS...Madison, WI...
Probabilistic Graphic
20150705 0600 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 337,162 23,597,675 Milwaukee, WI...Oklahoma City, OK...Kansas City, MO...Wichita, KS...Madison, WI...
   SPC AC 050501

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1201 AM CDT SUN JUL 05 2015

   VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS MAINLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND UPPER PORTIONS OF THE
   MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
   MONDAY IN A CORRIDOR FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE
   SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MODELS SUGGEST THAT WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGING MAY BECOME EVEN A BIT
   MORE SUPPRESSED DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD...AS THE MID-LATITUDE
   WESTERLIES GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH OF THE CANADIAN/ U.S. BORDER...AND
   BECOME BROADLY CYCLONIC ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TIER STATES. 
   THIS PATTERN TRANSITION APPEARS UNDERWAY AS A SIGNIFICANT UPPER
   TROUGH WITHIN THE WESTERLIES BEGINS TO TURN EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE
   CANADIAN ROCKIES.  DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...MODELS SUGGEST THAT
   THIS TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SPLIT...WITH ONE IMPULSE ACCELERATING
   EAST NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD HUDSON BAY...WHILE A TRAILING IMPULSE DIGS
   ACROSS THE MONTANA/NORTH DAKOTA BORDER AREA.  BY MONDAY
   MORNING...THIS LATTER FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO TURN EASTWARD NEAR/JUST
   SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...BEFORE PROGRESSING ACROSS THE
   UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY 12Z TUESDAY.  MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
   THAT FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION COULD SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT
   CYCLOGENESIS ALONG AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT...ACROSS OR NORTHEAST
   OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.  OTHERWISE...THE FRONT IS FORECAST
   TO CONTINUE ADVANCING STEADILY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
   LAKES REGION...UPPER PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
   THE CENTRAL PLAINS...CONSIDERABLY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH OF THE
   TRAILING SOUTHERN IMPULSE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BEFORE IT
   BEGINS ASSUMING A MORE NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE TILT.

   ...UPPER MIDWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS...
   BY MONDAY MORNING...IT STILL APPEARS THAT RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE SOUTHWARD ADVANCING FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH A
   REMNANT PLUME OF ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR EMANATING FROM THE
   ROCKIES/PLATEAU REGION...WILL BEGIN TO STABILIZE.  MODELS INDICATE
   THAT THIS WILL OCCUR IN PART DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF CONSIDERABLE
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT ALSO DUE TO CONTINUED WARMING IN A
   PLUME AT MID/UPPER LEVELS...AHEAD OF THE LAGGING IMPULSE NEAR THE
   INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA.  AT THE SAME TIME THOUGH...BOUNDARY LAYER
   MOISTENING MAY CONTINUE WITHIN A PRE-FRONTAL CORRIDOR FROM THE SOUTH
   CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST.  SURFACE DEW POINTS
   CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER/MID 70S MAY STILL CONTRIBUTE TO SIZABLE
   MIXED LAYER CAPE WITH DAYTIME HEATING...BUT THIS LIKELY WILL BE
   DISTRIBUTED THROUGH A RATHER DEEP TROPOSPHERIC LAYER...WITH HIGH
   EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS.

   WHILE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME PARTICULARLY
   CONDUCIVE TO SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...INSTABILITY AND FORCING FOR
   ASCENT ALONG THE SOUTHWARD ADVANCING FRONT MAY SUPPORT CONSIDERABLE
   THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  IT IS POSSIBLE
   THAT A COMBINATION OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION LOADING AND THE DOWNWARD
   TRANSFER OF MOMENTUM ASSOCIATED WITH 20-30+ KT PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHERLY
   850 MB FLOW MAY CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIALLY DAMAGING SURFACE GUSTS IN
   STRONGER CONVECTION.

   SOME RISK FOR AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
   TORNADOES DOES SEEM EVIDENT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
   INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN...WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY
   BECOME SUFFICIENTLY STRONG IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE DEEPENING
   SURFACE LOW.  HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE SPREAD PERSISTS AMONG THE MODEL
   OUTPUT CONCERNING THIS DEVELOPMENT...AND WARM DESTABILIZATION.

   ..KERR.. 07/05/2015

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z