Oct 1, 2014 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Oct 1 04:24:38 UTC 2014 (20141001 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20141001 0600Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20141001 0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 367,186 43,861,253 Chicago, IL...Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Memphis, TN...Fort Worth, TX...
Probabilistic Graphic
20141001 0600 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
30 % 71,643 4,555,018 Springfield, MO...Tyler, TX...Fort Smith, AR...Longview, TX...Fayetteville, AR...
15 % 268,074 34,625,089 Chicago, IL...Dallas, TX...Memphis, TN...Fort Worth, TX...Kansas City, MO...
5 % 164,156 23,671,589 Houston, TX...San Antonio, TX...Indianapolis, IN...Austin, TX...Milwaukee, WI...
   SPC AC 010424

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1124 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

   VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MIDWEST TO CNTRL TX...

   ...SUMMARY...
   BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM ALONG COLD FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES
   ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
   ARE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

   ...MIDWEST TO CNTRL TX...

   LOW LATITUDE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT ACROSS THE SRN
   ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS EARLY IN THE PERIOD BEFORE EJECTING RAPIDLY NEWD
   INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT.  PRIMARY FEATURE
   RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS RAPID EJECTION IS AN INTENSIFYING SPEED MAX
   THAT WILL DIG INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS BY 03/12Z.  THIS SECONDARY
   FEATURE SHOULD AID DEEPENING CYCLONE/SHARPENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
   OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE.

   ALTHOUGH FRONTAL INTENSIFICATION IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE IN THE
   PERIOD...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG PROGRESSIVE
   BOUNDARY BEGINNING FAIRLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  LATEST MODEL
   GUIDANCE SUGGEST AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL ADVANCE AS FAR
   NORTH AS NRN IL BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH PW VALUES AOA 1.5 INCHES. 
   WHAT LITTLE CINH IS OBSERVED AT 12Z AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH
   BY 17-18Z SUCH THAT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD READILY DEVELOP ALONG WIND
   SHIFT ACROSS ERN KS/OK.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MATURE INTO A
   EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE STRETCHING FROM THE MID MS VALLEY...SWWD INTO
   NERN TX BY LATE AFTERNOON.  GREATEST BUOYANCY IS EXPECTED TO RESIDE
   FROM THE OZARK PLATEAU SWWD INTO TX AND HAIL IS MOST LIKELY ALONG
   THIS PORTION OF THE SQUALL LINE.  MEAN SWLY WIND WILL BE ON THE
   ORDER OF 30-35KT...MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR PROGRESSIVE SQUALL LINE
   THAT SHOULD ADVANCE TOWARD THE MS RIVER DURING THE EVENING HOURS. 
   WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR DEEP
   ROTATION...STORM MODE FAVORS LINEAR DEVELOPMENT AND DAMAGING WINDS
   ARE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT.

   ..DARROW.. 10/01/2014

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z