May 5, 2016 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu May 5 17:02:25 UTC 2016 (20160505 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20160505 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160505 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 180,089 2,462,203 Ogden, UT...Nampa, ID...Layton, UT...Cheyenne, WY...Idaho Falls, ID...
Probabilistic Graphic
20160505 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 180,658 2,471,257 Ogden, UT...Nampa, ID...Layton, UT...Cheyenne, WY...Idaho Falls, ID...
   SPC AC 051702

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1202 PM CDT THU MAY 05 2016

   VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
   INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...CNTRL ROCKIES AND NRN HIGH PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW SEVERE WITH HAIL...ARE EXPECTED
   ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST FROM PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN OREGON EASTWARD
   INTO SOUTHERN WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA.

   ...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/CNTRL ROCKIES/NRN HIGH PLAINS...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD INTO THE SWRN U.S. ON
   FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES SWD ACROSS THE NWRN AND NCNTRL
   STATES. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED FROM ERN ORE EXTENDING
   EWD INTO SRN WY AND FAR NWRN NEB BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS SFC HEATING
   TAKES PLACE ON FRIDAY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
   ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH A GRADUAL EXPANSION OF CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
   DURING THE AFTERNOON. INCREASING INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STEEP
   LAPSE RATES AND COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW
   WILL MAKE HAIL A POSSIBILITY WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. INSTABILITY
   IS NOT FORECAST TO BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE WEATHER
   THREAT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED.

   ..BROYLES.. 05/05/2016

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z