Jun 25, 2016 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Jun 25 17:17:46 UTC 2016 (20160625 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20160625 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160625 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 308,713 47,482,634 Chicago, IL...Detroit, MI...Indianapolis, IN...Columbus, OH...Denver, CO...
Probabilistic Graphic
20160625 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 310,581 48,156,672 Chicago, IL...Detroit, MI...Indianapolis, IN...Columbus, OH...Denver, CO...
   SPC AC 251717

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1217 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

   VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
   CNTRL PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
   SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF LOWER MICHIGAN. MARGINALLY SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR ON SUNDAY FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES
   REGION AND OHIO VALLEY WEST SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND
   CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

   ...DISCUSSION...

   WEAK LARGE-SCALE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE GREAT
   LAKES REGION ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF MIGRATORY CANADIAN SHORT-WAVE
   TROUGH.  ASSOCIATED TRAILING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM
   THE ERN U.P. OF MICHIGAN...SWWD ACROSS NRN IL INTO THE I-70 CORRIDOR
   OF THE CNTRL PLAINS BY 26/18Z...CURVING INTO SERN WY WHERE IT SHOULD
   STALL.  MODEST WLY 500MB FLOW WILL EXTEND INTO LOWER MI WHERE
   FORECAST SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD SUPPORT ROBUST MULTI-CELL UPDRAFTS. 
   SOUTH OF I-80...DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK.

   SCT CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ALONG
   THE FRONT BUT BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO MORE
   ROBUST UPDRAFTS BY AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES WARM.  GUSTY WINDS AND
   PERHAPS SOME HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH AFTERNOON/EVENING
   TSTMS.

   FARTHER WEST...INTENSE SFC HEATING ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS
   SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION WITHIN UPSLOPE REGIONS OF SERN
   WY/NERN CO.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST TSTMS WILL INITIATE ACROSS
   THIS REGION BY 20-21Z...THEN PROPAGATE SLOWLY SEWD INTO THE EVENING
   HOURS.  LARGE HAIL IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH WEAK SUPERCELLS.

   ..DARROW.. 06/25/2016

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z