May 28, 2015 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu May 28 05:26:29 UTC 2015 (20150528 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20150528 0600Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20150528 0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 705,287 75,555,143 Chicago, IL...Houston, TX...San Antonio, TX...Dallas, TX...Detroit, MI...
Probabilistic Graphic
20150528 0600 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 706,450 75,465,265 Chicago, IL...Houston, TX...San Antonio, TX...Dallas, TX...Detroit, MI...
   SPC AC 280526

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1226 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

   VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO LOWER
   MI...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW SEVERE...ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
   AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...SOUTHWEST INTO
   THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

   ...GREAT LAKES TO SRN PLAINS...

   MULTIFACETED UPPER TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES
   INTO THE PLAINS DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD.  LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL
   GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN SEASONALLY WEAK
   ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS WITH 500MB FLOW ROUGHLY ON THE ORDER OF
   20-30KT EXPECTED TO EXTEND ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL CORRIDOR FROM THE SRN
   PLAINS TO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES.  AS THE TROUGH PROGRESSES EWD...SFC
   FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE SWD ACROSS THE PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY TO
   A POSITION FROM WI...SWWD INTO WRN KS BY 18Z AND ANOTHER 100MI SOUTH
   BY 30/00Z.  CONVECTION SHOULD READILY DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
   FRONT DUE TO THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT INHIBITION AND SCT-NUMEROUS
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMMON FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE CNTRL GREAT
   LAKES.  LEFT OVER CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND PRECIP FROM DAY1 STORMS WILL
   CERTAINLY INHIBIT BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING IN PLACES BUT POCKETS OF
   SFC HEATING ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. 
   STRONG-SEVERE MULTI-CELL TSTMS CAPABLE OF GENERATING GUSTY WINDS AND
   HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS...THOUGH A FEW WEAK SUPERCELLS ARE
   POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.

   ..DARROW.. 05/28/2015

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z