May 29, 2016 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun May 29 17:32:59 UTC 2016 (20160529 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20160529 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160529 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 176,848 1,939,657 Lubbock, TX...Amarillo, TX...Midland, TX...Odessa, TX...San Angelo, TX...
MARGINAL 309,210 7,098,017 Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Sioux Falls, SD...Abilene, TX...Albany, NY...
Probabilistic Graphic
20160529 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 178,217 1,935,377 Lubbock, TX...Amarillo, TX...Midland, TX...Odessa, TX...San Angelo, TX...
5 % 306,860 7,081,803 Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Sioux Falls, SD...Abilene, TX...Albany, NY...
   SPC AC 291732

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1232 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

   VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE NRN AND
   CNTRL PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MOST OF THE HIGH PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF NEW
   ENGLAND...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
   NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH
   PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  ISOLATED STRONG TO PERHAPS
   LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND
   DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL
   WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   COMPLEX SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST MONDAY. IN THE NRN STREAM A
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE PACIFIC NW IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY AS
   IT MOVES INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE NEGATIVE
   TILT TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DEAMPLIFY AS IT
   CRESTS UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NERN STATES. IN THE SRN STREAM THE
   CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER THE SWRN U.S. WILL DRIFT VERY SLOWLY EWD
   ACROSS AZ...BUT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR WEAKER DOWNSTREAM IMPULSES TO
   MOVE INTO THE SRN PLAINS. 

   A SFC LOW WILL EVOLVE OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
   THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. BY MID-DAY A WARM FRONT WILL
   EXTEND FROM THE LOW OVER WRN SD EWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. A COLD
   FRONT WILL ADVANCE SEWD THROUGH ERN MT AND EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THE
   SFC TROUGH OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS.  THE COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY
   THE PROGRESSIVE NRN-STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND
   NEB MONDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. FARTHER SOUTH THE DRYLINE WILL
   PERSIST OVER THE SRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS.

   ...NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS AREA...

   SLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE AS LEE TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED
   ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. MODIFIED CP AIR WITH MID
   50S TO LOW 60S F DEWPOINTS WILL ADVECT NWD THROUGH THE PLAINS
   BENEATH PLUME OF STEEPER /7.5-8 C/KM/ LAPSE RATES CONTRIBUTING TO
   MODERATE INSTABILITY /1500-2000 J /KG MLCAPE/ AS THE SFC-LAYER
   WARMS. STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITHIN ZONE OF INCREASING
   DEEP-LAYER ASCENT ALONG THE SEWD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND
   PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. DEEP VERTICAL SHEAR WILL UNDERGO ONLY A MODEST
   INCREASE /30-35 KT/ WITH MULTICELLS THE PREDOMINANT STORM MODE.
   ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. 

   ...SRN HIGH PLAINS...

   OVERALL PATTERN WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO TODAY. IN WAKE OF ANY
   RESIDUAL EARLY STORMS THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE EAST
   DRYLINE ACROSS WRN TX. REMNANT EML PLUME WILL RESIDE ABOVE DEWPOINTS
   GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 60S OVER SWRN TX WITH UPPER 50S TO LOW
   60S F FARTHER NORTH. MODEST MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL PERSIST DOWNSTREAM
   FROM THE SWRN U.S. UPPER LOW ALONG WITH WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN
   SRN STREAM. AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS WILL LIKELY ONCE AGAIN
   DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS WELL AS ALONG DRYLINE AND SPREAD
   EWD THROUGH WRN TX. VERTICAL SHEAR FROM 30-40 KT WILL SUPPORT BOTH
   MULTICELL AND SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREATS THROUGH MID EVENING.

   ...NEW ENGLAND...

   WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
   STORM BONNIE WILL SHEAR NEWD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND
   COASTS DURING THE DAY.  IT APPEARS THERE MAY BE A SMALL WINDOW OF
   OPPORTUNITY FOR ISOLD STORM DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR WHERE STRONGER
   HEATING OCCURS FARTHER NW FROM NEAR THE ADIRONDACKS INTO NRN NEW
   ENGLAND AMIDST AN ADEQUATELY MOIST AIRMASS /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
   LOWER 60S/.  YET...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THIS REGION ONLY SHOW
   MARGINAL BUOYANCY DEVELOPING BY PEAK HEATING DESPITE MODERATELY
   STRONG WIND PROFILES.  AS SUCH...A COUPLE OF STRONGER STORMS MAY
   DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND POSE PRIMARILY A LOW-PROBABILITY
   WIND DAMAGE RISK BEFORE STORMS MOVE E OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS AND
   DIURNAL STABILIZATION OCCURS BY EARLY EVENING.

   ..DIAL.. 05/29/2016

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z