Jul 30, 2014 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Jul 30 17:12:36 UTC 2014 (20140730 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20140730 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140730 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20140730 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 42,627 2,921,374 Manchester, NH...Albany, NY...Schenectady, NY...Troy, NY...Pittsfield, MA...
   SPC AC 301712

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1212 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

   VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY
   SEVERE HAIL ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. A COUPLE OF STRONG
   STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE MID-MISSOURI
   VALLEY...ARK-LA-TEX...AND SOUTHEAST.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE EXPANSIVE ERN CONUS UPPER
   TROUGH SHOULD ADVANCE FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
   ON THU. A SERIES OF WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSES ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
   THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME SHOULD YIELD POCKETS OF FLOW
   ENHANCEMENTS ACROSS THE MID-MO VALLEY...ARK-LA-TEX...AND SOUTHEAST.

   ...NEW ENGLAND...
   SURFACE MASS RESPONSE WILL BE ILL-DEFINED AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
   SHORTWAVE IMPULSE...BUT FAVORABLE TIMING OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WITH
   THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED STORMS BY LATE
   MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. OVERALL SURFACE HEATING SHOULD REMAIN
   MODEST AND SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL HOLD IN THE 50S...LIKELY YIELDING
   ONLY A MEAGERLY BUOYANT AIR MASS. STILL...WITHIN A BELT OF STRONG
   700-500 MB SWLYS...SHORT-LINE SEGMENTS AND CLUSTERS WILL BE CAPABLE
   OF LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINAL HAIL.

   ..GRAMS.. 07/30/2014

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z