Apr 17, 2014 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Apr 17 17:29:49 UTC 2014 (20140417 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20140417 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140417 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20140417 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 171727

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1227 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

   VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   LOCALIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA
   PENINSULA...MAINLY FRIDAY EVENING TO SATURDAY MORNING.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   WHILE FAST FLOW ALOFT -- WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED TROUGHS -- WILL
   PERSIST ACROSS THE NRN STATES...A WEAKER SRN STREAM WILL AFFECT THE
   SRN 2/3 OF THE COUNTRY...WITH ONE TROUGH CROSSING THE SOUTHWEST AND
   A SECOND TRAVERSING THE SOUTHEAST/GULF OF MEXICO.  THIS SERN U.S.
   FEATURE WILL BE THE PRIMARY ONE WITH RESPECT TO SEVERE
   POTENTIAL...AS IT SUPPORTS WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE ERN
   GULF/FL VICINITY.  WITH A MOIST WARM SECTOR AND INCREASING SHEAR
   RESULTING FROM THIS SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION...LOW SEVERE PROBABILITY
   REMAINS EVIDENT OVER THE FL PENINSULA.

   ...FL PENINSULA...
   THINKING LAID OUT IN THE PRIOR FORECAST REMAINS VALID FOR THE FL
   VICINITY DAY 2 -- WITH LIMITATIONS AS RELATED TO STRONG/SEVERE
   CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL EVIDENT DUE TO BOTH DIURNAL TIMING ISSUES...AS
   WELL AS LIKELIHOOD FOR THERMODYNAMIC DEFICIENCIES.

   INDICATIONS ARE THAT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING OVER THE
   ERN GULF AND INTO AL/GA/THE FL PENINSULA EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH
   DOWNSTREAM CLOUD COVER RESIDING ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF AT LEAST
   CENTRAL AND N FL.  WITH LAPSE RATES ALOFT THUS REMAINING RELATIVELY
   WEAK...DIURNAL HEATING -- WHILE AIDING IN AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
   COVERAGE ACROSS THE PENINSULA -- SHOULD FOSTER ONLY MODEST CAPE.  IT
   WOULD APPEAR THAT AS THE UPPER FEATURE APPROACHES FL DURING THE
   AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL SHIFT FROM
   THE ERN GULF TOWARD/INTO N FL.  THE CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN BOTH
   LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WOULD BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE
   POTENTIAL...BUT WITH THIS LIKELY TO OCCUR BEYOND DIURNAL HEATING --
   WITHIN AN ALREADY MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...IT APPEARS
   ATTM THAT RISK WILL REMAIN LIMITED...AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN ONLY
   5%/SEE TEXT FORECAST THIS UPDATE.

   ..GOSS.. 04/17/2014

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z