Aug 30, 2016 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Aug 30 17:24:54 UTC 2016 (20160830 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20160830 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160830 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 14,456 5,404,194 Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Gainesville, FL...Clearwater, FL...Spring Hill, FL...
Probabilistic Graphic
20160830 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 14,355 5,288,144 Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Gainesville, FL...Clearwater, FL...Spring Hill, FL...
   SPC AC 301724

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1224 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016

   VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE WRN FL PENINSULA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS WITH AT LEAST A MARGINAL
   THREAT FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST OVER
   WESTERN FLORIDA...MAINLY LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
   MORNING.

   ...FL PENINSULA...

   PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER CONCERN WEDNEDSAY WILL BE EVOLUTION AND TRACK
   OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LOCATED OVER THE ERN GULF. THE NHC
   FORECASTS THIS SYSTEM TO STRENGTHEN AND BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AS
   IT MOVES NEWD THROUGH THE WARM GULF WATERS NEXT 48 HOURS. BY 12Z
   THURSDAY THE CENTER OF THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST BY NHC TO BE ABOUT
   85 NM OFF THE NWRN FL COAST. A BAND OF STRONG SSWLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS
   WILL LIKELY SPREAD INLAND THROUGH WRN FL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THIS
   SYSTEM APPROACHES...CONTRIBUTING TO SUFFICIENT 0-1 KM SHEAR FOR AT
   LEAST A MODEST THREAT OF LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES AND A COUPLE OF
   TORNADOES WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING WITHIN THE OUTER BANDS EAST AND
   NE OF THE CENTER. SEE LATEST UPDATES FROM NHC FOR MORE DETAILED
   INFORMATION REGARDING THIS EVOLVING TROPICAL SYSTEM.

   ..DIAL.. 08/30/2016

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z