Sep 1, 2014 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Sep 1 17:28:32 UTC 2014 (20140901 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20140901 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140901 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 96,849 15,099,981 Columbus, OH...Pittsburgh, PA...Cincinnati, OH...Lexington-Fayette, KY...Akron, OH...
Probabilistic Graphic
20140901 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 96,849 15,099,981 Columbus, OH...Pittsburgh, PA...Cincinnati, OH...Lexington-Fayette, KY...Akron, OH...
5 % 284,808 31,658,320 Memphis, TN...Nashville, TN...Cleveland, OH...Tulsa, OK...Wichita, KS...
   SPC AC 011728

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1228 PM CDT MON SEP 01 2014

   VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF NY TO KY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS PRIMARILY PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS
   ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS SOUTHWEST TO THE
   MID-SOUTH ON TUESDAY. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY OCCUR ON TUESDAY
   NIGHT OVER PARTS OF KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD MODEST-AMPLITUDE TROUGH
   SHOULD EJECT ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST TO LOWER GREAT LAKES DURING
   THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. IN THE WAKE OF THIS IMPULSE...A
   LARGELY ZONAL PATTERN WILL ENVELOP MOST OF THE CONUS. AT THE
   SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT E IN TANDEM WITH THE
   SHORTWAVE IMPULSE. TRAILING PORTION WILL BE QUASI-STATIONARY NEAR
   THE OZARK PLATEAU AND ADVANCE N AS A WARM FRONT TUE NIGHT.

   ...NRN APPALACHIANS TO THE MID-SOUTH...
   SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING AT 12Z/TUE FROM THE MIDWEST
   TO OZARK PLATEAU...LIKELY DISPLACED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
   WHILE THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG...EXTENSIVE CLOUDS
   SHOULD LIMIT DOWNSTREAM DESTABILIZATION...ESPECIALLY FROM THE OH
   VALLEY NWD. HERE MID/UPPER-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE POOR...BUT A
   STRONG BELT OF 700-500 MB WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THIS REGION. THIS
   SHOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY AS RENEWED
   DEVELOPMENT OCCURS ALONG CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
   CORRIDORS BY LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
   ORGANIZE INTO LINE SEGMENTS/CLUSTERS THAT SHOULD YIELD AT LEAST
   ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS...WARRANTING AN UPGRADE TO A CATEGORICAL
   RISK DESIGNATION. WITH SRN/WRN EXTENT...PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER SHEAR
   WILL LIMIT THE RISK FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. 

   ...CNTRL/ERN KS TO N OK...
   LOW-LEVEL WAA WILL STRENGTHEN TUE NIGHT AS A RELATIVELY DIFFUSE WARM
   FRONT ADVANCES N. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION SHOULD
   FORM ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A GRADUALLY EXPANDING HIGH PLAINS EML.
   MOST GUIDANCE SUGGEST WLYS WITHIN THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER WILL
   SLACKEN LATE IN THE PERIOD...PROBABLY ONLY SUPPORTING MULTICELLS AT
   BEST. BUT AMIDST MODERATE BUOYANCY...INITIAL UPDRAFTS MAY PRODUCE
   MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

   ..GRAMS.. 09/01/2014

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z