Jul 28, 2016 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Jul 28 05:58:22 UTC 2016 (20160728 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20160728 0600Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160728 0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 170,730 27,969,510 Philadelphia, PA...St. Louis, MO...Little Rock, AR...Toms River, NJ...Springfield, IL...
Probabilistic Graphic
20160728 0600 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 170,730 27,969,510 Philadelphia, PA...St. Louis, MO...Little Rock, AR...Toms River, NJ...Springfield, IL...
   SPC AC 280558

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1258 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

   VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE SRN
   PLAINS...OZARK PLATEAU...AND MID-MS VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
   REGION INTO LONG ISLAND NY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TO LONG ISLAND. OTHER STRONG STORMS ARE
   POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
   VALLEY.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL EXTEND FROM THE GREAT PLAINS TO THE
   ATLANTIC COAST. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC
   CYCLONE WILL ADVANCE QUICKLY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION ACROSS SRN
   NEW ENGLAND BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE DURING THE EVENING. A SEPARATE
   MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX WILL WEAKEN WHILE MOVING ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU
   TOWARDS THE MID-MS VALLEY. A PERSISTENT MIDLEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL
   GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD TO NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AS A PRONOUNCED TROUGH
   AMPLIFIES ACROSS WRN CANADA INTO THE PAC NW.  

   ...MID-MS VALLEY/LOWER-OH VALLEY WWD INTO PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS...

   HIGH UNCERTAINTY FORECAST WILL UNFOLD DURING THE FRI/D2 PERIOD AS
   MESOSCALE DETAILS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON EARLY MORNING MCS MOVING
   ACROSS PARTS OF OK/TX...WHICH COULD POSE A LINGERING STRONG WIND
   THREAT INTO EARLY PORTIONS OF THE PERIOD. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS
   FOR AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO SET UP NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND BE
   ONE FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN A MOISTURE-RICH AIR MASS.
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE WEAK AS THIS AREA IS POSITIONED ALONG THE
   SRN FRINGE OF N-NWLY FLOW ALOFT...BUT A THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS
   MAY ACCOMPANY LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTION WHERE MORE ROBUST DIURNAL
   HEATING/DESTABILIZATION OCCURS. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES WITH NWD
   EXTENT INTO OK AND THE ERN TX/OK PANHANDLES...ESPECIALLY WITH THE
   DEGREE OF AIR MASS RECOVERY THAT CAN OCCUR. STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL
   LLJ MAY SUPPORT ELEVATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF WRN OK AND THE ERN TX PANHANDLE. 

   FARTHER E...INCLUDING THE OZARK PLATEAU NEWD TOWARDS THE MID-MS AND
   LOWER-OH VALLEYS...CONVECTION SHOULD PERSIST OR REDEVELOP LATE
   MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH PRIMARY EWD MOVING IMPULSE AND NEAR
   ACCOMPANYING SFC BOUNDARY. THIS AREA WILL BE POSITIONED WITHIN A
   BELT OF RELATIVELY STRONGER MIDLEVEL WLY FLOW /E.G. 20-30 KT/...WITH
   PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY BEING THE DEGREE OF HEATING THAT CAN OCCUR.
   HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY EXIST FROM
   NRN AR/ERN MO INTO SRN IL THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. 

   ...MID-ATLANTIC REGION INTO LONG ISLAND NY...
   A LOW-LEVEL CYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE IMPULSE
   WILL TRACK FROM THE DELMARVA PENINSULA NEWD ALONG COASTAL SRN NEW
   ENGLAND FRI MORNING. ASSOCIATED BELT OF 30-40 KT OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW
   WITHIN WARM CONVEYOR WILL SUPPORT STRONG WIND PROFILES E OF THE COLD
   FRONT AND SFC LOW FROM THE CHESAPEAKE BAY NEWD ACROSS LONG ISLAND
   NY. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS THE AIR MASS MAY BECOME
   MARGINALLY UNSTABLE MID-LATE MORNING WITH MODEST DIURNAL HEATING
   OCCURRING AMIDST RICH TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE. A FEW SMALL CLUSTERS OR
   LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE PRIOR TO
   THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY MOVING OFFSHORE.

   ...NERN NM AND SERN CO...
   UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE RATON MESA INTO THE FRONT RANGE OF SERN CO
   SHOULD ENCOURAGE ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. NLY
   FLOW ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN ALONG THE ERN PERIPHERY OF A MIDLEVEL
   ANTICYCLONE OVER NRN AZ AND RESULT IN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE SHEAR
   PROFILES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THE MAGNITUDE OF MOISTURE ADVECTING
   WWD IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES POTENTIALLY
   ORIGINATING IN A POST-MCS AIR MASS OVER THE LOWER PLAINS...BUT A FEW
   STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON.

   ..ROGERS.. 07/28/2016

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z