Feb 11, 2016 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Feb 11 16:54:11 UTC 2016 (20160211 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20160211 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160211 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20160211 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 111654

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1054 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

   VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   PROBABILITIES OF THUNDERSTORMS STILL APPEAR NEGLIGIBLE ACROSS MUCH
   OF THE U.S. FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A STRONG UPPER IMPULSE EMERGING FROM THE ARCTIC LATITUDES APPEARS
   LIKELY TO CONTINUE DIGGING SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY LATER TODAY THROUGH
   EARLY FRIDAY.  THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO THEN GRADUALLY TURN
   SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
   THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...MAINTAINING AMPLIFIED LARGER SCALE
   TROUGHING NOW PRESENT ACROSS AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  IN
   LOWER LEVELS...THIS IS FORECAST TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER
   SIGNIFICANT COLD INTRUSION ACROSS MOST AREAS EAST OF THE
   ROCKIES...WHICH SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO THE MAINTENANCE OF GENERALLY
   DRY AND/OR STABLE CONDITIONS.

   WEST OF THE ROCKIES...UPPER TROUGHING NOW APPROACHING THE BRITISH
   COLUMBIA AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST IS FORECAST TO BECOME
   INCREASINGLY FRAGMENTED AS IT ADVANCES INLAND...THROUGH LARGER-SCALE
   UPPER RIDGING.  AT LEAST A COUPLE OF IMPULSES WITHIN THE SOUTHERN
   PORTION OF THE FORMER FEATURE APPEAR LIKELY TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE
   PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...TOWARD THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...FRIDAY
   THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.  AND MODELS SUGGEST THAT ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL
   COOLING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK DESTABILIZATION...MAINLY ACROSS
   LOWER ELEVATIONS TO THE WEST OF THE NORTHERN CASCADES.

   ...WEST OF NORTHERN CASCADES...
   IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...
   SURFACE HEATING BENEATH THE MID-LEVEL COOLING /INCLUDING TO -26 TO
   -30C AT 500 MB/ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STEEPENING LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC
   LAPSE RATES BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
   INCREASING LOW-TOPPED CELLULAR CONVECTION DURING THE 21-00Z TIME
   FRAME...WHEN MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THERMODYNAMIC
   PROFILES MAY BECOME CONDUCIVE TO CHARGE SEPARATION...AND PERHAPS
   SOME WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  ADDITIONAL WEAK THUNDERSTORM
   ACTIVITY...AIDED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH AN INLAND PROGRESSING
   MID-LEVEL IMPULSE...APPEARS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY NEAR
   IMMEDIATE WASHINGTON COASTAL AREAS.

   ..KERR.. 02/11/2016

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z