Mar 28, 2015 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Mar 28 17:17:18 UTC 2015 (20150328 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20150328 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20150328 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20150328 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 281717

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1217 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

   VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL MAY AFFECT AREAS FROM SOUTHEAST
   OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS...EASTWARD TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
   SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...FOR SUNDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE UNLIKELY.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY CROSSING PARTS OF NRN ID AND
   MT WILL EXTEND FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE CNTRL PLAINS BY THE
   START OF THE D2/SUN PERIOD. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN TRACK TO THE
   GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE BEING OVERTAKEN BY AN
   UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE AMPLIFYING FROM ONTARIO AND MANITOBA. A COLD
   FRONT ACCOMPANYING THESE EVOLVING MIDLEVEL FEATURES WILL ADVANCE
   EWD/SEWD ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL/ERN/SRN CONUS. BY EARLY MON
   MORNING...THE FRONT WILL LIE ALONG THE APPALACHIANS...CURVING WWD
   TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND REACH FARTHER W INTO N TX. 

   ...SE OK AND NE TX EWD TO THE TN VALLEY AND SRN APPALACHIANS...
   LIMITED TIME HAS ELAPSED SINCE THE PRIOR FRONTAL INTRUSION INTO THE
   GULF OF MEXICO...YIELDING INSUFFICIENT OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY MORE THAN
   MODEST RETURN OF POORLY MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE INTO D2/SUN. RAOBS
   ACROSS THE CNTRL/WRN GULF COAST AT 12Z THIS MORNING INDICATE PW
   VALUES AOB 0.7 INCH...INDICATIVE OF THE DEEP DRY AIR CURRENTLY IN
   PLACE. FURTHERMORE...THE FLOW AOA H85 IS EXPECTED TO EXHIBIT
   PRIMARILY A WLY COMPONENT...OWING TO THE LOW-AMPLITUDE NATURE OF THE
   AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE DISPLACED TO THE N OF
   THE REGION. FOR ALL OF THESE REASONS...THE DEARTH OF MOISTURE SHOULD
   BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR SVR-TSTM POTENTIAL ON D2/SUN.

   REGARDLESS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP SUN EVENING/NIGHT
   WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE IN THE PRESENCE OF SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTURE. WITH ENHANCED MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING AN EML
   PLUME BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION FROM THE W...AND GIVEN AROUND
   20-30 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH SOME OF
   THE MOST INTENSE STORMS. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SUCH ACTIVITY
   WOULD BE FROM SRN AR AND VICINITY TO THE TN VALLEY AND SRN
   APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL BE AT THE ERN EDGE OF THE EWD-SPREADING EML
   PLUME AND WITHIN A ZONE OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WAA ALONG A
   FRONT-PRECEDING LLJ. HOWEVER...STRONGER DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
   NOT PHASE WITH THE RETURNING LIMITED MOISTURE...LARGELY MITIGATING
   SVR-TSTM POTENTIAL.

   ...ELSEWHERE...
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF IA AT THE
   START OF THE D2/SUN PERIOD WITHIN THE ZONE OF STRONGER DEEP FORCING
   FOR ASCENT IMMEDIATELY PRECEDING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SIMILAR
   ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD DOWNSTREAM ACROSS PARTS OF IL BEFORE
   DISSIPATING...WHILE THE STRONGER ASCENT OUTPACES STEEPER MIDLEVEL
   LAPSE RATES. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
   TERRAIN OF NRN NM AND SRN CO IN RESPONSE TO DIURNALLY ENHANCED
   OROGRAPHIC CIRCULATIONS AMIDST SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/MARGINAL
   INSTABILITY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

   ..COHEN.. 03/28/2015

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z