Dec 20, 2014 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Dec 20 06:02:59 UTC 2014 (20141220 0700Z Day 2 shapefile | 20141220 0700Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20141220 0700 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20141220 0700 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 200602

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1202 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

   VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR OVER
   THE NORTHERN HALF OF FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA SUNDAY INTO
   SUNDAY NIGHT.

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   AMPLIFIED SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL PERSIST SUNDAY WITH A BROAD UPPER
   TROUGH EVOLVING OVER THE CNTRL STATES AND GRADUALLY SHIFTING EWD
   TOWARD THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED
   WITHIN THE BASE OF THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GULF COAST
   STATES...WHILE A WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE NRN GULF.

   ...CNTRL THROUGH NRN FL...

   RICHER GULF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE...BUT PARTIALLY MODIFIED
   GULF AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60F WILL ADVECT NWD INTO
   THE FL PENINSULA. MODEST MOISTURE RETURN AND WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES SHOULD LIMIT MUCAPE TO AOB 300 J/KG. APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH WILL PROMOTE A MODEST SWLY LLJ WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC
   ASCENT...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE FRONT FROM SRN PORTIONS OF THE GULF
   COAST STATES INTO NRN FL SUNDAY NIGHT. NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS WILL
   LIKELY DEVELOP IN THIS REGIME ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
   THUNDERSTORMS.

   ..DIAL.. 12/20/2014

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z