Dec 10, 2016 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Dec 10 18:11:39 UTC 2016 (20161210 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20161210 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20161210 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20161210 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 101811

   Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1211 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

   Valid 111200Z - 121200Z



   Thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the lower Mississippi
   Valley to western Tennessee Sunday night.  Showers and a few
   lightning strikes may also occur over portions of the coastal
   Pacific Northwest.

   As forecast for several days, the models indicate low-amplitude
   cyclonic flow aloft across the contiguous United States through the
   day 2/Sunday forecast period.  An embedded shortwave trough should
   move through the Upper Midwest to Great Lakes.  Meanwhile, a weak
   and sheared impulse should track quickly east, and potentially in
   tandem with the Upper Midwest trough, through the southern Plains
   and Ozarks region by late Sunday afternoon into the Tennessee Valley
   Sunday night.

   At the surface, an area of low pressure will develop through the
   upper Mississippi Valley into the upper Great Lakes, while the
   trailing cold front advances east and southeast through the Midwest,
   mid-Mississippi Valley, Ozarks, and the southern Plains.

   ...Lower Mississippi Valley to western Tennessee...
   Strong southwesterly low-level jet, attendant to the progressive
   Upper Midwest shortwave trough, is expected to shift from eastern
   portions of the southern Plains Sunday morning into the lower
   Tennessee and Ohio Valleys Sunday afternoon.  The southern extent of
   this low-level flow will allow moisture to return to the north-
   northeast ahead of the cold front into the Ark-La-Tex region to
   western Mississippi.  The eastern extent of an elevated-mixed-layer
   spreading east into this region will inhibit deep-moist convection
   from developing until Sunday night.  At that time, greater forcing
   for ascent attendant to the southern Plains impulse and within the
   frontal zone should allow for elevated storms.  While hail cannot be
   ruled out, weak elevated instability and weak effective bulk shear
   suggest the probability for hail exceeding 1 inch in diameter will
   remain less than 5 percent. 

   Farther north, much weaker instability should preclude thunderstorm
   development into the Ohio Valley Sunday night.

   ...Pacific Northwest coastal areas...
   Cold air aloft located north of a strong westerly 500-mb jet
   extending through OR to the northern Great Basin suggests showers
   and occasional lightning strikes will be possible from coastal areas
   to along the windward slopes of the higher terrain of western
   WA/western OR.

   ..Peters.. 12/10/2016