Sep 16, 2014 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Sep 16 05:59:25 UTC 2014 (20140916 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20140916 0600Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140916 0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20140916 0600 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 30,414 1,770,589 Springfield, MO...Fayetteville, AR...Springdale, AR...Joplin, MO...Rogers, AR...
   SPC AC 160559

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1259 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

   VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
   AFTERNOON FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
   ROCKIES AND INTO THE GREAT PLAINS AND OZARKS. OTHER STORMS MAY
   DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS...GULF COAST STATES AND ALONG
   THE WEST COAST.

   ...SE KS/NE OK/SW MO/NW AR...
   NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ON WEDNESDAY FROM THE NRN PLAINS
   INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AS A LARGE-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS
   LOCATED OVER THE ERN U.S. AT THE SFC...A LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN
   OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING
   ESEWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS SRN KS...NE OK AND INTO THE OZARKS.
   THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO WARM ADVECTION MAY BE ONGOING ON THE NRN SIDE
   OF THE BOUNDARY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS SE KS AND SW MO.
   THIS CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO MOVE SWD INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU
   WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WEAKEN. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY
   REDEVELOP IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE NAM AND
   GFS AT 21Z FOR INDEPENDENCE KS AND JOPLIN MO SHOW MLCAPE IN THE 1500
   TO 2000 J/KG RANGE WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM THE SFC TO 3 KM AGL.
   IN ADDITION...MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE PRESENT DUE TO
   DIRECTIONAL TURING BELOW 700 MB AND SPEED SHEAR IN THE MID-LEVELS.
   THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A HAIL THREAT WITH SFC-BASED STORMS THAT
   INITIATE ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG
   GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES.

   ..BROYLES.. 09/16/2014

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z