Apr 26, 2015 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Apr 26 05:10:39 UTC 2015 (20150426 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20150426 0600Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20150426 0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 129,333 21,935,156 Houston, TX...Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Fort Worth, TX...New Orleans, LA...
MARGINAL 50,314 3,388,011 Mobile, AL...Monroe, LA...Hattiesburg, MS...San Marcos, TX...New Braunfels, TX...
Probabilistic Graphic
20150426 0600 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 125,751 21,669,853 Houston, TX...Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Fort Worth, TX...New Orleans, LA...
5 % 52,067 3,323,660 Mobile, AL...Denton, TX...Monroe, LA...Hattiesburg, MS...San Marcos, TX...
   SPC AC 260510

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1210 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

   VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NCNTRL TX TO THE CNTRL
   GULF COAST...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS IMMEDIATELY SURROUNDING THE
   SLGT RISK...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS
   TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD.

   ...TX TO CNTRL GULF COAST...

   STRONG MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX IS FORECAST TO DIG SEWD ACROSS THE LOWER
   CO RIVER VALLEY INTO NRN MEXICO BEFORE EJECTING EWD INTO THE EDWARDS
   PLATEAU DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY1 PERIOD.  EXIT REGION OF
   THIS JET WILL OVERSPREAD THE DRY LINE ACROSS WCNTRL TX AND
   PRONOUNCED DIFLUENT HIGH-LEVEL FLOW WILL ENCOURAGE WIDESPREAD
   CONVECTION ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS LATE SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
   SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT.  NRN EDGE OF SEVERE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY
   INFLUENCED BY POSITION OF COLD FRONT/EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD
   BE DRAPED ACROSS NCNTRL TX AT DAYBREAK MONDAY.  THERE IS SOME
   CONCERN THAT GREATEST BUOYANCY MAY BE DISPLACED A BIT FARTHER SOUTH
   THAN LATEST NAM SUGGESTS.  AS UPPER LOW DRIFTS EWD ACROSS THE SRN
   PLAINS IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL BE
   OBSERVED ACROSS SWRN INTO CNTRL TX MONDAY AFTERNOON...JUST WEST OF
   SFC FRONT/DRY LINE.

   EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF
   OK WITHIN STRONG WARM ADVECTION REGIME.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
   SPREAD/DEVELOP SEWD INTO THE WARM SECTOR BY MID DAY AS CONVECTIVE
   INHIBITION SHOULD BE NEGLIGIBLE ACROSS THIS REGION.  STRONG
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL PROVE SUPPORTIVE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS AND
   ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...THOUGH STORM MERGERS
   AND CLUSTERS APPEAR LIKELY GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.
    LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES CAN BE
   EXPECTED WITH TSTMS THAT EVOLVE ACROSS TX DURING THE DAY.  ACTIVITY
   THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE CNTRL GULF COAST WILL DO SO WITHIN A WEAKER
   LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT AND HAIL SHOULD GENERALLY BE SUB-SEVERE.

   ..DARROW.. 04/26/2015

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z