Mar 6, 2015 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Mar 6 04:41:14 UTC 2015 (20150306 0700Z Day 2 shapefile | 20150306 0700Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20150306 0700 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20150306 0700 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 060441

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1041 PM CST THU MAR 05 2015

   VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY OVER SOUTHEASTERN
   ARIZONA INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO...AS WELL AS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
   TEXAS OVERNIGHT.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A LARGELY CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME ALOFT WILL PERSIST FROM THE NRN
   PLAINS/GREAT LAKES EWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WITH A WEAKER SRN-STREAM
   TROUGH ACROSS THE SWRN/S CNTRL STATES. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A RATHER
   COOL AND STABLE AIR MASS ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS DUE TO HIGH
   PRESSURE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SWRN
   TROUGH...WHERE ISOLATED DAYTIME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.

   ...SERN AZ INTO WRN NM DURING THE DAY...THEN INTO CNTRL TX
   OVERNIGHT...
   STRONG HEATING BENEATH COOL PROFILES ALOFT WILL YIELD WEAK
   INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON OVER THE AZ/NM AREA. THIS WILL FAVOR
   DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ANY STORMS SHOULD
   REMAIN WEAK WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY PRESENT.

   LATER IN THE EVENING...HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD INTO TX...WHERE SOME
   WEAK WARM ADVECTION AROUND 850 MB WILL OCCUR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   INDICATE WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT AS SHOWERS AND A
   FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE AND INTO W
   CNTRL TX.

   ..JEWELL.. 03/06/2015

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z