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Apr 17, 2014 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Thu Apr 17 07:11:50 UTC 2014 (Print Version | 20140417 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20140417 0730Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Probabilistic
 Population  Cities  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 170710

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0210 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

   VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   LOCALIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING INTO EARLY
   AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED INVOF NRN FL SHOULD GRADUALLY
   MOVE EWD OFF THE S ATLANTIC COAST. UPSTREAM IN THE SRN STREAM...A
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD DAMPEN IN THE SWRN CONUS/NWRN MEXICO. 

   ...CNTRL/SRN FL...
   LARGE SPREAD NOTED IN MODEL GUIDANCE DURING D2 PERSISTS INTO D3.
   HOWEVER...THE CONSENSUS TREND HAS BEEN FOR A SLOWER EWD PROGRESSION
   OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...SUGGESTING THAT AT LEAST A MARGINAL SEVERE
   RISK MAY LINGER BEYOND 12Z/SAT ESPECIALLY ALONG THE E COAST.
   ALTHOUGH LOW/MID-LEVEL KINEMATIC FIELDS SHOULD BE STRONGEST ON SAT
   MORNING /MAGNITUDE OF WHICH VARIES GREATLY AMONG GUIDANCE/...FLOW
   SHOULD BECOME VEERED AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH TIME. THIS INFERS THAT
   OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH RELATIVE TO LATE D2. 

   ...TRANS-PECOS/RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF W TX...
   A BELT OF MODERATE MID/HIGH-LEVEL SWLYS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
   DOWNSTREAM OF THE DAMPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AN INCREASE IN
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE UP THE RIO GRANDE /CONSISTING OF MIDDLE 40S TO
   LOWER 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS/ SHOULD AID IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION
   FORMING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. THE COMBINATION OF LAPSE
   RATES/SHEAR/BUOYANCY MAY AID IN A FEW LOCALLY STRONG STORMS...BUT
   NOT SUFFICIENTLY FAVORABLE TO WARRANT SEVERE PROBABILITIES ATTM.

   ..GRAMS.. 04/17/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

        
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Page last modified: April 17, 2014
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