SPC AC 190727
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 AM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...
Isolated hail is possible on Thursday across parts of the southern
High Plains and northern Rockies.
In general, northwest flow aloft will stretch from the Pacific
Northwest across the Plains and into the lower MS Valley on
Thursday, with embedded shortwave troughs across the northern
Rockies and mid MS Valley. The ID/MT trough will be accompanied by a
cold front which will provide a focus for thunderstorms.
Northwesterly flow aloft across the southern High Plains and
sufficient low-level moisture will support a few storms capable of
hail mainly over northeast NM.
...Southern High Plains...
Surface winds are likely to veer to southerly by late afternoon
across southeast CO into eastern NM, with 50s F dewpoints into
eastern NM. Strong heating and increasing upslope flow should lead
to a few storms, mainly from northeast NM, but possibly continuing
eastward into the TX/OK Panhandles. Northwesterly flow aloft atop
light southerly surface winds will lengthen hodographs, supporting a
few cells capable of severe hail.
...Much of central and southwest Montana and vicinity...
A cold front will provide a focus for storm development as the
shortwave trough progresses east across ID and into MT. Cooling
aloft will support at least 1000 J/kg MUCAPE, with sufficient
deep-layer shear for a few long-lived storms capable of wind and
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z