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Jul 24, 2016 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Sun Jul 24 07:27:55 UTC 2016 (Print Version | 20160724 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20160724 0730Z Day 3 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 240727

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0227 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

   VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND
   NORTHERN PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND
   NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   LOW-AMPLITUDE WLY FLOW REGIME WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NRN
   HALF OF THE CONUS AS A MIDLEVEL ANTICYCLONE GRADUALLY BUILDS WWD
   TOWARDS THE GREAT BASIN. WITHIN THIS REGIME...SEVERAL WEAK
   DISTURBANCES WILL PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE PAC NW INTO THE NRN
   ROCKIES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE UPPER MS VALLEY
   INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...N OF A STALLED FRONT NEAR THE OH
   VALLEY. 

   ...MUCH OF THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS...
   A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
   MOVE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS...AND WILL LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED
   WITH ONGOING CONVECTION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE REGION. THE TIMING OF EACH IMPULSE AND SUBSEQUENT EFFECT ON
   CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...BUT A BROAD ZONE OF
   AT LEAST LOWER 60S F DEWPOINTS WILL EXIST S OF A MORE
   WELL-ESTABLISHED BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS ND. STRONG DIURNAL HEATING
   IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS MOST OF THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS...AND
   SHOULD SUPPORT SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE REGION TO
   SUSTAIN A FEW CLUSTERS AND PERHAPS SUPERCELLS AMIDST 20-30 KT OF
   MIDLEVEL FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND
   GUSTS THE LIKELY THREATS. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CONVECTION
   MAY PERSIST OVERNIGHT IN THE FORM OF ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS AND
   PROPAGATE GENERALLY SEWD ACROSS NEB/KS AND PERHAPS FAR WRN IA.
   HOWEVER...GIVEN THE HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH EARLY
   CONVECTION AND TIMING/POSITION OF INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES...CONFIDENCE
   IS TOO LOW FOR A SLIGHT RISK DELINEATION.

   ..ROGERS.. 07/24/2016

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

        
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Page last modified: July 24, 2016
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