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Sep 17, 2014 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Wed Sep 17 07:27:03 UTC 2014 (Print Version | 20140917 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20140917 0730Z Day 3 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 170727

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0227 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

   VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN
   WEST EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT PLAINS AND NORTHEASTWARD TO THE WESTERN
   GREAT LAKES REGION. SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
   AND STRONG WINDS MAY OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
   VALLEY. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN PARTS OF THE GULF COAST STATES.

   AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NRN PLAINS IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY
   FLATTEN ON FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
   AND INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
   TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS ON FRIDAY WITH A CORRIDOR OF
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE MID MO VALLEY AND UPPER
   MS VALLEY. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY FIRST INITIATE AROUND MIDDAY
   NEAR THE CORE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS WI. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
   MAY TAKE PLACE BY EARLY EVENING FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS SRN
   MN AND NRN IA. THESE STORMS WILL MORE LIKELY BE SFC-BASED AND MAY
   HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS DUE TO MODERATE
   INSTABILITY AND ENHANCED DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. HOWEVER...FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT A CAPPING INVERSION WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MUCH
   OF THE DAY AND COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY EVENING. THIS INTRODUCES
   UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND COULD LIMIT THE
   MAGNITUDE OF ANY SEVERE THREAT.

   ..BROYLES.. 09/17/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

        
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Page last modified: September 17, 2014
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