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Apr 20, 2018 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Fri Apr 20 07:14:20 UTC 2018 (Print Version | 20180420 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20180420 0730Z Day 3 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 200714

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0214 AM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

   Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN
   AL/SOUTHEAST LA EASTWARD THROUGH THE FL PANHANDLE...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the
   Southeast states and Florida Panhandle.

   ...Synopsis...
   An upper low will continue eastward through the Lower MS Valley and
   into the Southeast states on Sunday. A weak surface low will move
   eastward/southeastward just ahead of this upper low, likely tracking
   generally southeastward along a warm front. By 12Z Monday, this
   surface low is expected to be centered over southeast AL, with a
   cold front extending southward into the Gulf of Mexico and a warm
   front extending southeastward into the FL Big Bend.

   ...Eastern LA into FL Panhandle/Big Bend...
   Modest destabilization is anticipated within the warm sector ahead
   of the surface low. More robust destabilization will be tempered by
   widespread cloudiness but continued moisture advection will likely
   result in dewpoints in the low to mid 60s and MLCAPE around 500
   J/kg. The position of the warm front has varied within the guidance
   over the last few runs and the current expectation is for the front
   to extend from near MEI southeastward to near AAF at 21Z Sunday.
   Despite modest instability, strong shear supports the potential for
   a few organized storms along and south of the warm front during the
   afternoon. A more developed convective line is possible over the
   north-central Gulf as the cold front moves through the area. This
   line could impact the FL Big Bend very late in the period. Marginal
   severe probability (i.e. 5%) has been introduced across these areas.
   Uncertainty and generally modest severe potential preclude higher
   probabilities with this outlook.

   ..Mosier.. 04/20/2018

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

        
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Page last modified: April 20, 2018
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