SPC AC 120825
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0225 AM CST SUN FEB 12 2012
   
   VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   DOWNSTREAM OF A SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE EMERGING FROM A STRONG MID
   LATITUDE PACIFIC JET...MODELS INDICATE THAT UPPER RIDGING WILL
   AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC TOWARD THE CANADIAN AND U.S.
   PACIFIC COAST.  TO THE EAST OF THE THIS FEATURE...A COUPLE OF
   DISTINCT BRANCHES OF STRONGER FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST...BUT
   VARIABILITY AMONG THE MODELS BEGINS TO INCREASE CONCERNING EMBEDDED
   SHORT WAVE DEVELOPMENTS ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST STATES INTO THE
   PLAINS.  THE PATTERN EVOLUTION APPEARS MORE CERTAIN FARTHER
   EAST...WHERE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SOUTHERN BRANCH JET WILL
   SHIFT NORTHWARD...AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
   LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES.
   
   VEERING OF LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS FROM SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY...IN THE
   WAKE OF A WEAKENING IMPULSE LIFTING FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
   THROUGH NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS...MAY CUT OFF AN INITIAL
   WEAK RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST.  HOWEVER...A NEW
   RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE OFF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
   INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AS ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE
   BEGINS TO LIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU.  THIS SHOULD INVOLVE
   HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AIR THAN THE PRIOR EVENT...AS THE BOUNDARY
   LAYER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO MODIFY IN THE WAKE OF THE
   ONGOING COLD INTRUSION.  AND FURTHER WARMING OF THE LOW AND
   MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT APPEARS PROBABLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
   AND WESTERN GULF COAST REGION...INCLUDING THE NORTHEASTWARD
   ADVECTION OF ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR FROM THE MEXICAN PLATEAU.
   
   ...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...
   DESTABILIZING TRENDS COULD BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF AN INCREASING RISK
   FOR THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
   NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS...IN PARTICULAR...SUGGEST THAT MID-LEVEL
   INHIBITION MAY NOT BE PROHIBITIVE IN THE PRESENCE OF LOWER/MID
   TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. 
   HOWEVER...STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT...AND DEEP LAYER
   UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...CURRENTLY SEEMS MOST LIKELY TO BECOME
   FOCUSED FARTHER TO THE NORTH...ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WHERE
   WEAKER CAPE IS EXPECTED TO NEGATE THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL.  IT IS
   NOT YET EVEN CLEAR THAT PROFILES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
   BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE HAIL...BUT THE POTENTIAL MAY NOT BE
   COMPLETELY NEGLIGIBLE...AND WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.
   
   ...FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST BOUNDARY LAYER BASED DESTABILIZATION IN
   THE WARM SECTOR OF A WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL WAVE MAY BECOME SUPPORTIVE
   OF DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE APALACHICOLA AREA...BEFORE
   MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE SUBSTANTIALLY LATE TUESDAY
   AFTERNOON.  IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONGLY SHEARED 30+ KT WESTERLY MEAN
   LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT COULD BE
   ACCOMPANIED BY THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. 
   HOWEVER...AT THE PRESENT TIME...THE THREAT APPEARS TOO LOW TO
   JUSTIFY EVEN 5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBABILITIES.
   
   ..KERR.. 02/12/2012
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z