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< Day 2 Outlook   Day 4 - 8 Outlook >
May 27, 2018 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Sun May 27 07:25:41 UTC 2018 (Print Version | 20180527 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20180527 0730Z Day 3 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 270725

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0225 AM CDT Sun May 27 2018

   Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE CENTRAL PLAINS AREA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Strong/locally severe storms are progged across portions of the
   Plains on Tuesday.  A couple of brief tornadoes may also occur in
   conjunction with Alberto.

   ...Synopsis...
   Short-wave troughing ejecting from the Rockies is expected to
   continue northeastward across the central and northern Plains Day
   3/Tuesday, as a second trough digs southeastward out of the
   northeast Pacific toward the West Coast.

   At the surface, a cold front associated with the advancing western
   upper trough is forecast to shift across the northwestern portions
   of the country, while a combination of ill-defined troughing and
   convective outflow crosses the Plains.  Farther east, remnants of
   Alberto are forecast to be crossing the Tennessee Valley area, per
   latest NHC forecasts.

   ...Northern and central Plains area...
   A complex/uncertain severe-weather forecast is evident across the
   Plains, with several episodes of intervening storms to have occurred
   over the region on prior days -- including likelihood for
   widespread/ongoing convection Tuesday morning.  

   With flow surrounding the ejecting trough likely to be somewhat
   weaker Tuesday as compared to Monday, and with substantial concerns
   regarding recovery of the airmass after expected/substantial
   overturning, identifying corridors of potentially greater severe
   risk will be largely delayed until future outlooks.

   With that said, greatest potential for airmass recovery/afternoon
   destabilization appears to exist over the Kansas vicinity, on the
   southern portion of the expected zone of the most active/widespread
   Day 2 convection.  With shear sufficient for organized storms
   anticipated to exist, will highlight a small 15% risk area centered
   over central Kansas, within a broad MRGL risk area extending from
   the north-central states to Oklahoma.

   ...Mid-south/southern Appalachians region and vicinity...
   Remnants of Alberto are forecast to be shifting northward
   into/across the Tennessee Valley Tuesday.  While the circulation
   should weaken with time, ample low-level shear will likely persist
   within the northeast quadrant of the system to support a continued
   risk for a couple brief tornadoes.

   ..Goss.. 05/27/2018

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

        
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Page last modified: May 27, 2018
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