SPC AC 020730
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT THU JUL 02 2009
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM A PORTION OF THE CNTRL AND
SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS...
...SYNOPSIS...
WNWLY QUASI-ZONAL PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY OVER THE NRN
TWO THIRDS OF THE U.S. WITH A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND
SWRN STATES. SEVERAL IMPULSES WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS PROGRESSIVE
FLOW REGIME. CIRCULATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES WILL HAVE
AN IMPACT ON HOW FAR SOUTH FRONT PROGRESSES DURING THE DAY WHICH
REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. BASED ON CURRENT MODEL
RUNS...FRONT WILL PROBABLY ADVANCE INTO SE CO...SRN KS/MO AND NRN
OK/AR DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
...CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS THROUGH LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS...
PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL HAVE ADVECTED OVER THE
CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS INTO A PORTION OF THE MID/LOWER MS IN VICINITY
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE PROBABLE AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY JUST
NORTH OF THE FRONT WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL RESIDE. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT AS WELL AS FARTHER
WEST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITHIN DEVELOPING UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME.
MUCH OF THIS REGION WILL REMAIN ON SRN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER FLOW
ALOFT WITH BULK SHEAR MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS. THE
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL AS
STORMS DEVELOP SWD INTO MORE DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS.
FARTHER EAST TOWARD THE TN VALLEY...MCS THAT WILL PROBABLY BE IN
PROGRESS OVER THE MID MS VALLEY EARLY SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE SEWD
TOWARD THE TN VALLEY REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH SEWD ADVANCING
IMPULSE AND ATTENDANT LOW LEVEL JET. RENEWED STORM DEVELOPMENT COULD
OCCUR ALONG SWRN FLANKS OF ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACCOMPANYING THIS
ACTIVITY WHERE LIFT COULD BE POTENTIALLY AUGMENTED WSWLY LOW LEVEL.
STRONGER BULK SHEAR ATTENDING THE MCV/SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL POSE A
CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES IF STORMS CAN
BECOME SURFACE BASED. OTHERWISE...STORMS DEVELOPING UPSTREAM ALONG
FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD MOVE INTO THIS REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH A THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL.
..DIAL.. 07/02/2009
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z