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Feb 26, 2015 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Thu Feb 26 08:06:28 UTC 2015 (Print Version | 20150226 0830Z Day 3 shapefile | 20150226 0830Z Day 3 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 260806

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0206 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

   VALID 281200Z - 011200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE
   SATURDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE WEST...MAINLY ACROSS THE GREAT
   BASIN...AND NEAR CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTAL AREAS.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS THAT AT LEAST SOME SEMBLANCE OF OMEGA-TYPE
   BLOCKING WILL PERSIST WITHIN THE LARGE-SCALE MID/UPPER FLOW ACROSS
   THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO WESTERN U.S. DURING THIS PERIOD. 
   ASSOCIATED WITH THIS REGIME...AN AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH APPEARS
   LIKELY TO CONTINUE DIGGING ACROSS CALIFORNIA...WITH PERHAPS A CLOSED
   CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION EVOLVING NEAR CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN
   CALIFORNIA COASTAL AREAS.  COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
   FEATURES IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN STEEP LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE
   RATES ACROSS MUCH OF CALIFORNIA INTO THE GREAT BASIN SATURDAY INTO
   SATURDAY NIGHT.  THIS MAY PROMOTE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED WEAK
   THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...MAINLY BENEATH A LINGERING ZONE OF UPPER
   DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN DURING THE DAY...AND IN THE
   VICINITY OF THE DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION...NEAR/WEST OF THE
   CALIFORNIA COAST.

   DOWNSTREAM...SPLIT BELTS OF WESTERLIES SHOULD REMAIN CONFLUENT EAST
   OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.  BUT UPPER RIDGING
   APPEARS LIKELY TO AMPLIFY IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM...ACROSS MUCH OF
   THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE U.S...WHILE SUBTROPICAL RIDGING BUILDS
   WESTWARD FROM THE BAHAMAS AND CARIBBEAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.  AN
   INCREASINGLY SUBSTANTIVE RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE PROBABLY WILL
   COMMENCE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREAS.  THIS MAY
   BEGIN TO CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK DESTABILIZATION ABOVE A RESIDUALLY
   COOL/STABLE LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE...AS FAR NORTH AS THE SOUTH
   CENTRAL PLAINS AND OZARK PLATEAU.  HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT THIS
   POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WILL BE CAPPED BY WARMING LAYERS ALOFT...WHICH
   MAY TEND TO INHIBIT THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...AS
   LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT REMAINS WEAK TO NEGLIGIBLE.

   ..KERR.. 02/26/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z

        
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Page last modified: February 26, 2015
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