SPC AC 190730
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0230 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
   
   VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
   REGION SWWD INTO CENTRAL TX...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   SLIGHT WEAKENING/DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE LINGERING MID- AND
   UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. IS FORECAST THIS
   PERIOD...AS A DIGGING/STRENGTHENING TROUGH/LOW SHIFTS SSEWD INTO THE
   WRN/NWRN U.S. THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THE CENTRAL U.S.
   SYSTEM WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY DRIVER FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
   CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS FORECAST.
   
   ...UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION SWWD INTO CENTRAL TX...
   MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
   ROUNDING THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW AND WIDESPREAD
   CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DURING INTERVENING DAYS IS YIELDING FAIRLY
   SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO DETAILS OF THE DAY 3
   /TUESDAY/ SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
   TO TX.
   
   ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT A COLD FRONT -- MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
   SRN PLAINS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD -- SHOULD BEGIN TO WASH OUT AS
   EWD PROGRESSION SLOWS INTO THE AFTERNOON.  WHILE CLOUDS AND ONGOING
   SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY INHIBIT
   HEATING/DESTABILIZATION IN SOME AREAS INTO THE
   AFTERNOON...SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION IS FORECAST BY LATE
   AFTERNOON -- PARTICULARLY FROM THE SERN OK/WRN AR VICINITY SWWD INTO
   CENTRAL TX AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE.  
   
   BOUNDARY-LAYER CAPPING SHOULD LIMIT DEVELOPMENT INTO THE
   AFTERNOON...BUT STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EVENTUALLY EXPECTED -- WITH
   COVERAGE DEPENDING TO SOME DEGREE UPON TIMING OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
   CROSSING THE SRN ROCKIES DAY 2 AND THEN SHIFTING INTO TX DAY 3. 
   WITH AMPLE SHEAR AND LIKELY-TO-BE STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
   ARKLATEX AND INTO CENTRAL TX...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER --
   PRIMARILY VERY LARGE HAIL -- WILL BE POSSIBLE.  HOWEVER...WITH
   QUESTIONS REGARDING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/CONCENTRATION...WILL
   INTRODUCE ONLY 15% SEVERE PROBABILITY ATTM.
   
   FARTHER N -- ACROSS MO AND AS FAR NEWD AS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
   REGION...THE SCENARIO IS EVEN MORE UNCLEAR...AS MORE WIDESPREAD
   STORMS ONGOING EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE
   DAY.  THEREFORE...MORE UNCERTAIN DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION -- AS
   WELL AS GENERALLY WEAKER SHEAR DUE TO MORE MERIDIONAL/UNIDIRECTIONAL
   FLOW ALOFT -- SHOULD LIMIT THREAT TO SOME DEGREE.  STILL...LOCALLY
   SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AND
   POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN BE EXPECTED.  THREAT SHOULD
   DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...THOUGH STORMS/LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
   WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
   
   ..GOSS.. 05/19/2013
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z