SPC AC 090719
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0219 AM CDT FRI MAY 09 2008
   
   VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CNTRL/ERN
   GULF STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS...
   
   ...SERN U.S...
   
   00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ALLOWING DIGGING
   SHORTWAVE OVER THE MID MS VALLEY TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE
   CNTRL APPALACHIANS BY THE END OF THE DAY3 PERIOD.  THIS FEATURE WILL
   INDUCE SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING AT THE LOWER LEVELS OVER THE OH VALLEY
   WHERE SFC LOW SHOULD OCCLUDE.  ALTHOUGH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
   DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...WITHIN MEAGER MOISTURE FROM IND INTO
   OH...MORE SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS
   THE CNTRL/ERN GULF STATES INTO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS.
   
   DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WILL EVOLVE ACROSS THE ERN U.S. DURING THE DAY3
   PERIOD.  THIS LARGE SCALE EVOLUTION WILL TRANSPORT STEEP LAPSE RATE
   ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE GULF STATES AS WLY FLOW
   DEEPENS ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF OH VALLEY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. 
   LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST PW'S ON THE ORDER OF 1.5-1.75 INCHES
   WILL BE TRANSPORTED AHEAD OF SHARP FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM MS/AL...EWD
   INTO SC/NC.  THIS MOISTURE SURGE WILL CERTAINLY AID BUOYANCY WITHIN
   STRONGLY VEERED WIND REGIME...ESPECIALLY AS DAYTIME HEATING DEEPENS
   BOUNDARY LAYER.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS
   THE CNTRL GULF STATES...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WARM FRONT INTERSECTION
   AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD.  FORECAST SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST
   CELL MOTIONS OF 40-50KT...WITH MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 2000 J/KG
   BY MID DAY.  IF CONVECTIVE CONTAMINATION DOES NOT OCCUR FROM DAY2
   ACTIVITY...A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE EVENT COULD OCCUR ACROSS
   THE OUTLOOK REGION AS PROFILES FAVOR VERY FAST MOVING SUPERCELL
   STRUCTURES.  AN UPGRADE MAY BE REQUIRED IN LATER OUTLOOKS IF MODEL
   DATA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THIS EVOLUTION.
   
   ..DARROW.. 05/09/2008
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1100Z