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Dec 22, 2014 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Mon Dec 22 08:27:25 UTC 2014 (Print Version | 20141222 0830Z Day 3 shapefile | 20141222 0830Z Day 3 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 220827

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0227 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

   VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE FL PENINSULA THROUGH
   SERN GA INTO THE ERN CAROLINAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA
   PENINSULA WEDNESDAY. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND AND A
   COUPLE OF TORNADOES. A MORE MARGINAL THREAT FOR A STRONG STORM OR
   TWO WILL EXIST FROM SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA THROUGH THE EASTERN
   CAROLINAS. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT IN THESE
   REGIONS.

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE ERN STATES ON
   WEDNESDAY. A STRONG UPPER JET WILL EVOLVE WITHIN THE ERN HALF OF THE
   TROUGH. ATTENDANT CYCLONE WILL LIFT NWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND
   INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT CONTINUES EWD AND OFF
   THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 

   ...FL...

   A STRONG LLJ WILL ADVECT UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE FL
   PENINSULA...BUT WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT MUCAPE TO
   500 J/KG MLCAPE IN WARM SECTOR. NUMEROUS STORMS WILL LIKELY BE
   ONGOING FROM THE NERN GULF INTO THE SERN STATES AND NRN FL ALONG THE
   CONVEYOR BELT...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP THROUGH PRE-FRONTAL
   WARM SECTOR AND REMAINDER OF THE FL PENINSULA. STRONG WINDS ALOFT
   ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 45-50 KT EFFECTIVE
   SHEAR AND POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN
   THREAT. A SLIGHT RISK MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER UPDATES IF IT BEGINS TO
   APPEAR INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. 

   ...SRN GA THROUGH THE ERN CAROLINAS...

   DESPITE THE INFLUX OF MODIFIED CP BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR PROMOTED BY A
   STRONG SLY LLJ...WIDESPREAD PRE-FRONTAL RAIN AND EMBEDDED CONVECTION
   WILL PROBABLY LIMIT MUCAPE IN THIS REGION TO AOB 300 J/KG. STRONG
   WINDS AND VERTICAL SHEAR WITHIN CONVECTIVE LAYER WILL OVERSPREAD THE
   WARM SECTOR AND CONTRIBUTE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED LOW-TOPPED
   CONVECTION. WHILE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THE
   THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL PROBABLY REMAIN TOO LIMITED FOR A
   MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT.

   ..DIAL.. 12/22/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z

        
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Page last modified: December 22, 2014
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