SPC AC 050708
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0208 AM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010
   
   VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   THE UPPER TROUGH AS DISCUSSED IN DAY 2 SHOULD CONTINUE A STEADY
   EAST-NORTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION/SOUTHERN
   ONTARIO ON TUESDAY...WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SPREADING
   EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES VICINITY...WHILE THE TRAILING
   PORTION OF THE FRONT DECELERATES/STALLS AND EVENTUALLY ELONGATES
   EAST-WEST ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TO SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL BE
   AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF WHAT
   WILL BE THE NEXT SUBSTANTIAL UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE
   WESTERN STATES. POTENTIAL TROPICAL ORGANIZATION WILL BE ALSO BE
   MONITORED ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO TUESDAY.
   
   ...TX...
   MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS INTO TUESDAY WITH THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE 
   OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. REFERENCE THE LATEST NHC FORECASTS
   AND DISCUSSIONS REGARDING POTENTIAL TROPICAL ORGANIZATION OVER THE
   NEXT 24-48 HOURS. IF SOME MEASURE OF ORGANIZATION WOULD INDEED
   OCCUR...AS GENERALLY SUPPORTED BY /ALBEIT HIGHLY VARIABLE/ 00Z
   ECMWF/GFS/NAM GUIDANCE...IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
   WIND FIELDS COULD SPREAD INLAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF COASTAL AND
   INTERIOR CENTRAL/EAST TX WITH SOME ASSOCIATED TORNADO THREAT. BUT
   GIVEN A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY/POTENTIAL VARIABILITY...SEVERE
   PROBABILITIES ARE NOT CURRENT WARRANTED.
   
   ...LOWER GREAT LAKES...
   WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO ADVANCE
   NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION/SOUTHERN ONTARIO ON
   TUESDAY...CANNOT CURRENTLY RULE OUT STRONG/GUSTY WINDS WITH THE
   POSSIBILITY OF FAST MOVING TSTMS ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TUESDAY
   AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...WITH MOISTURE/BUOYANCY EXPECTED
   TO BE RATHER LIMITED...A SIMILARLY LIMITED POTENTIAL/LIKELIHOOD OF
   SEVERE PRECLUDE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
   
   ..GUYER.. 09/05/2010
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z