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May 25, 2016 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Wed May 25 07:30:34 UTC 2016 (Print Version | 20160525 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20160525 0730Z Day 3 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 250730

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0230 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

   VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID AND UPPER TX COAST
   NWD INTO N-CNTRL TX AND SERN OK...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN PLAINS NWD INTO
   WRN PARTS OF THE MIDWEST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
   TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA ON FRIDAY.  OTHER MORE ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE
   MIDWEST.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A CNTRL U.S. MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW NEAR CO/NM WILL
   LIFT NEWD AND WEAKEN WITH TIME AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE SRN-CNTRL
   PLAINS.  A SURFACE LOW WILL MIGRATE NEWD FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO
   THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE N-CNTRL
   STATES.  A RESIDUAL DRYLINE/LEE TROUGH WILL EXTEND SWD INTO THE SRN
   PLAINS.  

   ...TX/OK...
   SUITE OF DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS AN MCS ONGOING AT THE
   START OF THE DAY 3 PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/N-CNTRL TX.  A
   MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO THE E AND S WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE FOR A TSTM
   COMPLEX TO CONTINUE EWD ACROSS ERN AND SERN PORTIONS OF TX DURING
   THE DAY.  CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE POSSIBLE
   DEVELOPMENT AND SUBSEQUENT PROGRESSION OF STORM ACTIVITY ACROSS TX
   AND THE RESULTANT EFFECTS IT WOULD HAVE ON THE QUALITY OF THE
   BOUNDARY LAYER BOTH ACROSS THE SRN FRINGE OF THE TSTM ACTIVITY AND
   FARTHER N OVER OK.  WITH THESE CAVEATS IN MIND...DIURNAL
   DESTABILIZATION AND A MOIST AIRMASS MAY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL STORMS
   FORMING LATER IN THE AFTERNOON BOTH IN S-CNTRL TX AND FARTHER NW
   NEAR A DRYLINE.  THE MERIDIONAL CHARACTER OF THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
   SUGGESTS LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. 
   STORM INTENSITY WILL PROBABLY LESSEN AS STORMS MOVE FARTHER E INTO
   PORTIONS OF AR/LA LATE IN THE DAY AND DURING THE EVENING COINCIDENT
   WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.

   ...CNTRL PLAINS INTO IA/MN/MO...
   WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY AS
   THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK H5 FALLS OVERSPREAD A RESIDUAL MOIST
   SECTOR WITH 60S DEG F DEWPOINTS.  A PLUME OF STEEP H7-H5 LAPSE RATES
   AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK-MODERATE BUOYANCY
   /500-2000 J PER KG MLCAPE/ BY MID AFTERNOON.  A SLIGHTLY VEERING BUT
   GENERAL SLY WIND PROFILE STRENGTHENING WITH HEIGHT WILL SUPPORT A
   MIX MODE OF MULTICELLS AND PERHAPS SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH
   MODERATELY STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR /25-35 KT/.  ISOLD LARGE HAIL AND
   STRONG/SEVERE GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY
   BEFORE IT WEAKENS DURING THE EVENING.

   ..SMITH.. 05/25/2016

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

        
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