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Jan 24, 2015 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Sat Jan 24 07:20:06 UTC 2015 (Print Version | 20150124 0830Z Day 3 shapefile | 20150124 0830Z Day 3 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 240720

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0120 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

   VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

   ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS NEGLIGIBLE ON MONDAY AND MONDAY
   NIGHT.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE S ATLANTIC COAST MON MORNING
   WHILE AN UPSTREAM IMPULSE RAPIDLY PROGRESSES FROM THE UPPER MS
   VALLEY TOWARDS THE SRN APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY YIELD A
   BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST...AS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE
   BECOMES CENTERED FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE NORTHWEST. CLOSED
   MID-LEVEL LOW W OF BAJA CA SHOULD SLOWLY FILL AS IT TRACKS N TO NEAR
   THE CNTRL/SRN CA COAST MON NIGHT.

   ...DISCUSSION...
   POTENTIAL FOR APPRECIABLE MUCAPE SUPPORTING A RISK OF TSTMS APPEARS
   MINIMAL OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS. OFFSHORE CONVECTION SHOULD FLOURISH
   ACROSS THE GULF STREAM IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LEAD TROUGH SHIFTING
   OFF THE S ATLANTIC COAST. IN THE SOUTHWEST...A PLUME OF
   MID/HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED N/NW AROUND THE CIRCULATION
   OFF THE BAJA/SRN CA COAST WITH A LOBE OF FORCED ASCENT SUPPORTING
   SCATTERED SHOWERS. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL EVENTUALLY STEEPEN
   NEAR THE SRN CA COAST...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING MEAGER BUOYANCY MON
   NIGHT. BUT WITH DIMINISHING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...OVERALL SETUP
   SUGGESTS TSTM PROBABILITIES ARE BELOW 10 PERCENT.

   ..GRAMS.. 01/24/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z

        
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Page last modified: January 24, 2015
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