SPC AC 020730
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0230 AM CDT THU JUL 02 2009
   
   VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM A PORTION OF THE CNTRL AND
   SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   
   WNWLY QUASI-ZONAL PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY OVER THE NRN
   TWO THIRDS OF THE U.S. WITH A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND
   SWRN STATES. SEVERAL IMPULSES WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS PROGRESSIVE
   FLOW REGIME. CIRCULATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES WILL HAVE
   AN IMPACT ON HOW FAR SOUTH FRONT PROGRESSES DURING THE DAY WHICH
   REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. BASED ON CURRENT MODEL
   RUNS...FRONT WILL PROBABLY ADVANCE INTO SE CO...SRN KS/MO AND NRN
   OK/AR DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
   
   ...CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS THROUGH LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS...
   
   PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL HAVE ADVECTED OVER THE
   CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS INTO A PORTION OF THE MID/LOWER MS IN VICINITY
   OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE PROBABLE AS
   THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY JUST
   NORTH OF THE FRONT WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL RESIDE. STORMS ARE
   EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT AS WELL AS FARTHER
   WEST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITHIN DEVELOPING UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME.
   MUCH OF THIS REGION WILL REMAIN ON SRN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER FLOW
   ALOFT WITH BULK SHEAR MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS. THE
   PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL AS
   STORMS DEVELOP SWD INTO MORE DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS.
   
   
   FARTHER EAST TOWARD THE TN VALLEY...MCS THAT WILL PROBABLY BE IN
   PROGRESS OVER THE MID MS VALLEY EARLY SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE SEWD
   TOWARD THE TN VALLEY REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH SEWD ADVANCING
   IMPULSE AND ATTENDANT LOW LEVEL JET. RENEWED STORM DEVELOPMENT COULD
   OCCUR ALONG SWRN FLANKS OF ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACCOMPANYING THIS
   ACTIVITY WHERE LIFT COULD BE POTENTIALLY AUGMENTED WSWLY LOW LEVEL.
   STRONGER BULK SHEAR ATTENDING THE MCV/SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL POSE A
   CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES IF STORMS CAN
   BECOME SURFACE BASED. OTHERWISE...STORMS DEVELOPING UPSTREAM ALONG
   FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD MOVE INTO THIS REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON
   AND EVENING WITH A THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL.
   
   ..DIAL.. 07/02/2009
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z