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Jun 29, 2015 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Mon Jun 29 07:30:46 UTC 2015 (Print Version | 20150629 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20150629 0730Z Day 3 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 290730

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0230 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

   VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NERN
   U.S....

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID MS VALLEY TO THE
   TN VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM
   EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA TO VERMONT AND NEW HAMPSHIRE.  SCATTERED
   STORMS...A FEW SEVERE...WILL ALSO DEVELOP FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI
   VALLEY INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

   ...NERN U.S...

   SIGNIFICANT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EJECT ACROSS THE UPPER
   OH VALLEY INTO UPSTATE NY/CNTRL PA BY 18Z...THEN INTO SRN NEW
   ENGLAND BY 02/00Z.  IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE...RELATIVELY
   COOL/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS OVER NEW ENGLAND SHOULD BE
   DISLODGED ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND AS WARM FRONT ADVANCES TO NEAR THE
   MAINE BORDER BY LATE AFTERNOON.  VEERING WINDS WITHIN THE
   BOUNDARY-LAYER SHOULD ALLOW STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BENEATH
   SEASONALLY STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW...ON THE ORDER OF 50KT AT 500MB. 
   WILL INTRODUCE MRGL SEVERE THREAT AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE AS LARGE-SCALE
   ASCENT AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE SHOULD AID SCT THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT WITHIN STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR
   DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL.

   ...MID MS VALLEY TO TN VALLEY...

   BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST MCS MAY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF
   THE PERIOD ALONG NOSE OF VEERED BUT SIGNIFICANT LLJ.  NW-SE ORIENTED
   WARM ADVECTION RIBBON SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM
   CLUSTER TO PROPAGATE ACROSS MO INTO KY.  WHILE 5 PERCENT SEVERE
   PROBS HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED FOR THIS REGION...SLGT RISK MAY BE
   WARRANTED IN LATER OUTLOOKS AS VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT AND
   SUFFICIENT SPEED SHEAR APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR POTENTIALLY MORE
   WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT.  SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL ARE
   EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

   ..DARROW.. 06/29/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

        
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Page last modified: June 29, 2015
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