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Aug 23, 2016 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Tue Aug 23 07:11:52 UTC 2016 (Print Version | 20160823 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20160823 0730Z Day 3 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 230711

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0211 AM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

   VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS NEWD
   ACROSS THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
   ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON
   THURSDAY.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE SERN QUARTER OF THE
   CONUS WITH A BROAD BELT OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT EXTENDING FROM THE
   UPPER MS VALLEY EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. TO THE W...A BROAD BUT
   WEAK UPPER TROUGH WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS
   THE WRN STATES...MAINTAINING A THREAT OF WEAK DAYTIME STORMS OVER
   THE ROCKIES.

   A WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL STRETCH ROUGHLY FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
   SWWD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY AND INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AS THE
   MAIN SFC LOW CONTINUES TO PULL NEWD ACROSS ERN CANADA. MODEST WIND
   SPEEDS ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NEAR THIS SFC
   BOUNDARY RESULTING IN A LONG CORRIDOR OF DAYTIME
   THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE.

   ...SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS...
   AREAS OF WEAK THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING THUR MORNING FROM KS INTO
   IL ON THE FRINGES OF A STRONGLY VEERED LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS ACTIVITY
   IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH TIME...WITH HEATING OCCURRING ALONG THE
   LENGTH OF THE SFC BOUNDARY. MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL EXIST ACROSS
   THE ENTIRE AREA...SUPPORTING STRONG UPDRAFTS. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL
   WINDS WILL BE WEAK...GOOD MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW MAY BE SUFFICIENT
   TO ORGANIZE A FEW LONG-LIVED CLUSTERS OF STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY
   WIND BUT ALSO ISOLATED HAIL. GIVEN PREDICTABILITY ISSUES AND THE
   POSSIBILITY OF ONGOING RAIN IN THE MORNING...WILL DEFER ANY SLIGHT
   RISK TO LATER OUTLOOKS.

   ..JEWELL.. 08/23/2016

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

        
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Page last modified: August 23, 2016
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