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Oct 30, 2014 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Thu Oct 30 07:29:14 UTC 2014 (Print Version | 20141030 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20141030 0730Z Day 3 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 300729

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0229 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

   VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT
   BASIN AND ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES...AS WELL AS COASTAL PORTIONS OF
   MARYLAND TO SOUTH CAROLINA.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
   POTENT SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WILL SHIFT OFF THE S ATLANTIC COAST...WHILE
   A RIDGE GRADUALLY SHIFTS E OVER THE CNTRL CONUS. LEAD IMPULSE
   EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROADER WRN CONUS TROUGH SHOULD TRACK ACROSS THE
   GREAT BASIN TOWARDS THE NRN ROCKIES...WHILE AN UPSTREAM VORTICITY
   MAXIMUM REMAINS OVER THE DESERT SW.

   ...GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES...
   BUOYANCY WILL BE MEAGER AHEAD OF THE LEAD SHORTWAVE IMPULSE...BUT
   LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WHERE TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES REMAIN STEEP
   SHOULD AID IN ISOLATED TSTMS. BENEATH A STRONG MID-LEVEL JET
   STREAK...CHARACTERIZED BY 500 MB S/SWLYS AOA 60 KT...CONDITIONAL
   POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS AROUND PEAK HEATING
   /INVOF UT/. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN HIGHLIGHTING THIS
   CORRIDOR WITH UNCONDITIONAL MARGINAL-RISK PROBABILITIES...AS
   ABOVE-AVERAGE VARIABILITY EXISTS WITHIN GUIDANCE ON THE
   SPATIOTEMPORAL EVOLUTION OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

   ...COASTAL PORTIONS OF MD TO SC...
   SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE PERIOD
   WITHIN A MINIMALLY BUOYANT BUT RATHER STRONGLY-FORCED ENVIRONMENT
   NEAR A DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE JUST OFF THE OUTER BANKS.

   ..GRAMS.. 10/30/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

        
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Page last modified: October 30, 2014
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