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Mar 27, 2015 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Fri Mar 27 07:28:38 UTC 2015 (Print Version | 20150327 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20150327 0730Z Day 3 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 270728

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0228 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

   VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
   EVENING/NIGHT FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS TO THE
   MID/DEEP SOUTH.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD PROGRESS E/SE AND BECOME CENTERED FROM
   ONTARIO ACROSS THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES BY EARLY MON. A SRN-STREAM
   UPPER JET SHOULD DEVELOP FROM THE GULF OF CA TO THE SRN GREAT PLAINS
   AHEAD OF A WEAK IMPULSE APPROACHING BAJA CA. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD
   FRONT SHOULD SLOW ITS SEWD PROGRESSION IN THE MID/DEEP SOUTH AND SRN
   GREAT PLAINS BY SUN NIGHT. 

   ...SRN GREAT PLAINS TO THE MID/DEEP SOUTH...
   MOISTURE RETURN WILL COMMENCE ON D2 OVER THE FAR WRN GULF AND BECOME
   INCREASINGLY PERVASIVE INTO D3. WITH THIS OCCURRING BENEATH A STOUT
   EML...MLCIN WILL LIKELY BE LARGE AND SHOULD PRECLUDE SURFACE-BASED
   TSTM DEVELOPMENT. ONE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE ALONG THE TRIPLE-POINT NEAR
   N-CNTRL TX...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT SEVERE
   PROBABILITIES THIS OUTLOOK. OTHERWISE...LOWER-LEVEL WAA ALONG/N OF
   THE FRONT IN A FAVORABLE LEFT-EXIT REGION OF THE SRN-STREAM UPPER
   JET SHOULD FOSTER ELEVATED CONVECTION SUN EVENING/NIGHT. STRONGER
   MID-LEVEL W/NWLYS SHOULD BE DISPLACED E/NE FROM WHERE WEAK BUOYANCY
   IS MOST LIKELY ON THE FRINGE OF THE EML. GIVEN THIS SETUP...A RISK
   FOR MARGINAL HAIL MAY EVENTUALLY BE WARRANTED.

   ..GRAMS.. 03/27/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

        
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Page last modified: March 27, 2015
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