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Aug 22, 2014 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Fri Aug 22 07:29:20 UTC 2014 (Print Version | 20140822 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20140822 0730Z Day 3 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 220729

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0229 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

   VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW STRONG/POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
   AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
   VALLEY VICINITY ON SUNDAY.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   SOME SUPPRESSION OF THE MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED
   DAY 3...AS AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH IS SHUNTED ENEWD ACROSS THE NRN
   PLAINS INTO SRN MANITOBA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  MEANWHILE...THE
   BROADER TROUGH OVER THE W WILL BE MAINTAINED DESPITE EJECTION OF
   THIS FEATURE...AS ADDITIONAL SHORT-WAVE TROUGHING DIGS SWD OUT OF
   WRN CANADA INTO THE PAC NW.

   AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE EWD ACROSS THE
   N CENTRAL U.S. WITH TIME...AS THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS INTO THE SRN
   MANITOBA/WRN ONTARIO VICINITY.  ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE RISK THIS
   PERIOD IS FORECAST TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SURFACE SYSTEM AND
   ASSOCIATED/EJECTING UPPER LOW.

   ...UPPER MS VALLEY VICINITY...
   MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO EVOLUTION/LOCATION OF SYNOPTIC
   FEATURES PERSISTS THIS PERIOD -- AGAIN RESULTING IN LOW CONFIDENCE
   WITH RESPECT TO DELINEATING LOCATION AND DEGREE OF ANY SEVERE RISK
   ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM.

   SIMILAR TO DAY 2...ONGOING STORMS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD --
   ALBEIT FARTHER N -- WILL AGAIN BE LIKELY TO ALTER THE THERMODYNAMIC
   ENVIRONMENT.  HOWEVER...WITH A SHARPENING BELT OF SWLY FLOW ALOFT
   OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY AS THE EJECTING LOW IMPINGES ON PERSISTENT
   RIDGING...SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS WILL BE PRESENT. 
   THUS -- DESPITE LACK OF CLARITY ON THE DETAILS...WILL INTRODUCE A 5%
   SEVERE PROBABILITY AREA CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY FOR THE
   AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

   ..GOSS.. 08/22/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

        
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Page last modified: August 22, 2014
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