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Jul 28, 2015 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Tue Jul 28 07:19:18 UTC 2015 (Print Version | 20150728 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20150728 0730Z Day 3 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 280719

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0219 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

   VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SOUTHEAST
   STATES/APPALACHIANS TO NORTHEAST STATES/NEW ENGLAND...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS A BROAD
   PART OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
   EVENING.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A SEMI-AMPLIFIED/PROGRESSIVE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL EXIST OVER THE
   CONUS ON THURSDAY. WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS WESTWARD TOWARD THE
   FOUR CORNERS AREA...UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFICATION WILL OCCUR OVER
   EASTERN CANADA AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST STATES...WITH A
   COLD FRONT ADVANCING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND
   MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC STATES.

   ...NORTHEAST STATES/NEW ENGLAND...
   ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN
   ONTARIO/HUDSON BAY...AT LEAST WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED AS A
   LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH/MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX CROSSES THE REGION
   THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. EARLY-DAY CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION WILL
   LIKELY PRECEDE THE EASTWARD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT...BUT POCKETS OF
   STRONGER HEATING AND RELATED WEAK TO MODERATE BUOYANCY SHOULD ALLOW
   SOME STRONGER/POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THURSDAY
   AFTERNOON IN AREAS SPANNING EASTERN PA/NJ INTO EASTERN NY AND
   WESTERN/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. PROVIDED SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION
   OCCURS...MORE THAN ADEQUATE VERTICAL SHEAR /30-40 KT/ WILL SUPPORT
   SEMI-ORGANIZED STORM MODES INCLUDING MULTICELLS/LINE SEGMENTS
   CAPABLE OF PRIMARILY A DAMAGING-WIND RISK.

   ...MID-ATLANTIC STATES/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO SOUTHEAST STATES...
   WHILE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT/VERTICAL SHEAR WILL GENERALLY
   BE WEAK...A FEW CONVECTIVELY RELATED DISTURBANCES/MODESTLY ENHANCED
   NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL WINDS MAY OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN
   APPALACHIANS/SOUTHEAST STATES ON THURSDAY. THESE FACTORS MAY FURTHER
   CONTRIBUTE TO DOWNBURST/LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL AS LOW-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES STEEPEN THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

   ..GUYER.. 07/28/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

        
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Page last modified: July 28, 2015
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