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May 6, 2016 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Fri May 6 07:29:51 UTC 2016 (Print Version | 20160506 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20160506 0730Z Day 3 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 060729

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0229 AM CDT FRI MAY 06 2016

   VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
   ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SURROUNDING AREAS OF THE
   CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
   SOUTHERN PLAINS.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MODELS INDICATE THAT A SIGNIFICANT CLOSED LOW...WITHIN A SOUTHERN
   BRANCH OF SPLIT MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES...WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OR
   REDEVELOP EAST NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE
   CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THIS PERIOD.  THIS MAY OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO
   THE CONTINUING PROGRESSION OF A NUMBER OF SMALLER- SCALE
   PERTURBATIONS AROUND ITS PERIPHERY...AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
   ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT NORTHERN BRANCH IMPULSE DIGGING INLAND ACROSS
   THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST...TOWARD THE NORTHERN U.S. ROCKIES.  THE
   MANNER IN WHICH THIS OCCURS...PARTICULARLY WITH REGARD TO THE
   EMBEDDED SMALLER-SCALE FEATURES...IS A POINT OF MODEL VARIABILITY
   AND COULD HAVE A CONSIDERABLE IMPACT ON THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
   SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

   ONE SMALLER-SCALE PERTURBATION EXPECTED TO CROSS THE SOUTHERN
   ROCKIES SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IS FORECAST TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY
   SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  THIS IS
   GENERALLY EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITHIN LEE TROUGHING TO THE SOUTH OF A
   STALLED SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS NEBRASKA /WHICH WILL EXTEND
   SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI/LOWER OHIO VALLEYS INTO
   THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST/.  AS THIS OCCURS...THE WESTERN EDGE
   OF RETURNING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PROBABLY WILL AT LEAST STALL NEAR
   THE HIGH PLAINS...IF NOT RETREAT WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
   PLAINS...SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

   ...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...
   WHEREVER THE DRYLINE ENDS UP...IT SEEMS LIKELY TO BECOME THE FOCUS
   FOR STRONGEST STORM DEVELOPMENT LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 
   STEEPEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AIDED BY THE LEADING EDGE OF
   STRONGER MID-LEVEL COOLING...ARE EXPECTED TO BE FOCUSED ALONG THIS
   BOUNDARY.  AND SURFACE DEW POINTS INCREASING INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S
   MAY CONTRIBUTE TO MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG
   NEAR THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE DRY LINE.  A 50-70 KT 500 MB JET
   NOSING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE REGION IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO
   STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...PARTICULARLY FROM PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS
   NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO
   RESULT IN AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
   SUPERCELLS...AND PERHAPS THE GRADUAL EVOLUTION OF ONE OR TWO
   ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS...IN ADDITION TO THE RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL AND A COUPLE OF
   TORNADOES.

   ..KERR.. 05/06/2016

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

        
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