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Oct 23, 2014 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Thu Oct 23 07:26:03 UTC 2014 (Print Version | 20141023 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20141023 0730Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 230726

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0226 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

   VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
   OVER COASTAL REGIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND OREGON.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A POTENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE ASHORE THE
   WRN U.S. AND INTO THE NWRN QUARTER OF THE CONUS DURING THE DAY 3
   PERIOD.  DOWNSTREAM OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND UPPER GREAT LAKES...A
   STRONG SPEED MAXIMA WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND
   NORTHEAST U.S. WHILE A TROUGH OFF THE CAROLINAS MOVES FARTHER E INTO
   THE ATLANTIC.

   AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NW STATES
   FROM THE SW WHILE A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE NRN AND CNTRL HIGH
   PLAINS.  MEANWHILE FARTHER E...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO
   TRANQUIL CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE CNTRL U.S. INTO THE SOUTHEAST. 
   A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND
   INTO THE NORTHEAST.

   ...NRN CA/ORE COAST...
   COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL
   LIKELY SUPPORT CHARGE SEPARATION WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTIVE
   ELEMENTS FROM MAINLY THE COASTAL REGION OF NRN CA INTO ORE.  DESPITE
   THE PRESENCE OF AN INCREASINGLY STRONG WIND PROFILE...ONLY POCKETS
   OF WEAK BUOYANCY ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP AND WILL LIMIT UPDRAFT
   STRENGTH WITH PERHAPS THE STRONGEST UPDRAFT OR TWO BEING CAPABLE OF
   SMALL HAIL.

   ..SMITH.. 10/23/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

        
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Page last modified: October 23, 2014
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