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Feb 1, 2015 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Sun Feb 1 08:30:11 UTC 2015 (Print Version | 20150201 0830Z Day 3 shapefile | 20150201 0830Z Day 3 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 010830

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0230 AM CST SUN FEB 01 2015

   VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT OCCUR OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY.

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   UPPER PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A BROAD...LOW-AMPLITUDE
   NRN-STREAM TROUGH OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY TUESDAY AND AN
   UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NW. MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE
   CUTOFF UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE BAJA AREA WILL MOVE THROUGH NRN
   MEXICO AND REACH SRN TEXAS SOMETIME LATER TUESDAY NIGHT. 

   ...SRN TX...

   A LARGE AREA OF CP SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE ERN U.S.
   SWWD INTO ERN AND SRN TX. A WEAK SLY LLJ IS FORECAST OVER SRN TEXAS
   DOWNSTREAM FROM APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...AND THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE
   TO ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND THETA-E ADVECTION ABOVE THE SFC RIDGE AXIS.
   WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THIS
   PROCESS FROM SRN THROUGH SERN TX. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY UNDERGO
   AT LEAST MODEST STEEPENING WITH APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH...AND
   THIS MIGHT EVENTUALLY SUPPORT AN ELEVATED CONVECTIVE LAYER DEEP
   ENOUGH FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

   ..DIAL.. 02/01/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z

        
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Page last modified: February 01, 2015
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