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Jun 19, 2018 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Tue Jun 19 07:27:18 UTC 2018 (Print Version | 20180619 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20180619 0730Z Day 3 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 190727

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0227 AM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018

   Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
   SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated hail is possible on Thursday across parts of the southern
   High Plains and northern Rockies.

   ...Synopsis...
   In general, northwest flow aloft will stretch from the Pacific
   Northwest across the Plains and into the lower MS Valley on
   Thursday, with embedded shortwave troughs across the northern
   Rockies and mid MS Valley. The ID/MT trough will be accompanied by a
   cold front which will provide a focus for thunderstorms.
   Northwesterly flow aloft across the southern High Plains and
   sufficient low-level moisture will support a few storms capable of
   hail mainly over northeast NM.

   ...Southern High Plains...
   Surface winds are likely to veer to southerly by late afternoon
   across southeast CO into eastern NM, with 50s F dewpoints into
   eastern NM. Strong heating and increasing upslope flow should lead
   to a few storms, mainly from northeast NM, but possibly continuing
   eastward into the TX/OK Panhandles. Northwesterly flow aloft atop
   light southerly surface winds will lengthen hodographs, supporting a
   few cells capable of severe hail.

   ...Much of central and southwest Montana and vicinity...
   A cold front will provide a focus for storm development as the
   shortwave trough progresses east across ID and into MT. Cooling
   aloft will support at least 1000 J/kg MUCAPE, with sufficient
   deep-layer shear for a few long-lived storms capable of wind and
   hail.

   ..Jewell.. 06/19/2018

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

        
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Page last modified: June 19, 2018
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