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May 23, 2015 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Sat May 23 07:15:12 UTC 2015 (Print Version | 20150523 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20150523 0730Z Day 3 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 230715

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0215 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

   VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF TX...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE
   UPPER GREAT LAKES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED-NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM TEXAS INTO THE
   MID SOUTH REGION ON MEMORIAL DAY.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
   BE NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WEST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
   AND OHIO VALLEY.  GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE WILL BE ACROSS TEXAS WITH
   ISOLATED SEVERE EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

   ...TEXAS...

   NRN STREAM MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX IS FORECAST TO DIG SEWD ALONG THE
   PACIFIC COAST INTO NRN MEXICO DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD BEFORE EJECTING
   INTO THE BIG BEND REGION OF TEXAS EARLY MEMORIAL DAY.  WHILE DEEP
   LAYER SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...SUFFICIENT
   SFC-6KM SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND PERHAPS
   SUPERCELL STRUCTURES IF LARGER CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS/LINE SEGMENTS DO
   NOT DISRUPT DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT.  TROPICAL PLUME OF HIGH
   PW...1.75-2 INCHES...WILL PERSIST ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM THE WRN GULF
   BASIN INTO THE MID MS VALLEY REGION.  AS LARGE SCALE FORCING SPREADS
   INTO TX CONVECTION SHOULD EASILY DEVELOP...LIKELY EARLY IN THE
   PERIOD THEN SPREAD TOWARD THE ARKLATEX.  GIVEN THE LACK OF
   MEANINGFUL INHIBITION NUMEROUS STORMS...CLUSTERS AND MERGERS ARE
   EXPECTED.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MULTI-FACETED STORM MODES AND
   SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY FOR AT LEAST A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND
   WIND...PERHAPS EVEN A FEW TORNADOES IF SUPERCELLS EVOLVE.  GIVEN THE
   HIGH PW VALUES THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.


   ...UPPER MS VALLEY/CNTRL PLAINS...

   DAY2 SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EJECT NNEWD INTO THE MID-UPPER
   MS VALLEY EARLY IN THE PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO SPEED MAX APPROACHING
   THE BIG BEND.  CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE EARLY
   WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT LIKELY SPREADING INTO NW ONTARIO BY EARLY
   AFTERNOON.  WEAK SHORT-WAVE RIDGING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE TRAILING
   FRONTAL ZONE INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS DURING PEAK HEATING.  GIVEN THE
   WEAK LARGE SCALE SUPPORT WILL ONLY INTRODUCE 5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBS
   ACROSS THIS REGION FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS THAT EVOLVE DURING THE
   LATE AFTERNOON AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

   ..DARROW.. 05/23/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

        
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Page last modified: May 23, 2015
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