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Apr 25, 2015 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Sat Apr 25 07:09:40 UTC 2015 (Print Version | 20150425 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20150425 0730Z Day 3 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 250709

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0209 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

   VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EAST TX TO THE CNTRL GULF
   COAST...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS IMMEDIATELY SURROUNDING THE
   SLGT RISK...

   CORRECTED FOR MRGL DESCRIPTION

   ...SUMMARY...
   THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW SEVERE...WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EAST TEXAS TO THE
   CENTRAL GULF COAST DURING THE DAY3 PERIOD.

   ...TX TO CENTRAL GULF COAST...

   LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UPPER LOW WILL EJECT
   SLOWLY ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE DAY2-3 TIME FRAME.  AS UPPER
   LOW SHIFTS INTO SRN OK IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL
   TRANSLATE ACROSS SOUTH TX TOWARD THE LOWER SABINE RIVER VALLEY. 
   WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN
   WARM ADVECTION ZONE AND WITHIN EXIT REGION OF AFOREMENTIONED
   MID-LEVEL JET.  THE PROSPECT FOR STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING
   SHOULD BE LIMITED TO POST DRY LINE REGION OF TX BUT SUFFICIENT
   BUOYANCY IS EXPECTED ACROSS EAST TX TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST FOR
   ROBUST ORGANIZED STORMS.  THE MOST LIKELY REGION FOR CONCENTRATED
   ORGANIZED TSTMS WILL BE ACROSS EAST TX THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS
   WHERE LLJ SHOULD BE FOCUSED IN RESPONSE TO MID-LEVEL JET.  FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST EXHIBIT SUBSTANTIAL VEERING WITH
   HEIGHT AND PROFILES STRONGLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS.  SOUTH OF
   SYNOPTIC FRONT/EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY A CORRIDOR OF VERY MOIST AND
   SUFFICIENTLY BUOYANT AIR COULD SUPPORT TORNADOES GIVEN THE STRONGLY
   SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD/DEVELOP EWD ALONG
   CNTRL GULF COAST DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.

   ..DARROW.. 04/25/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

        
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Page last modified: April 25, 2015
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