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< Day 2 Outlook   Day 4 - 8 Outlook >
Sep 25, 2012 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Tue Sep 25 20:18:45 UTC 2012  (Print Version)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 252009
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AMEND 1
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0309 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012
   
   VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
   
   AMENDED TO ADD FCST GEN TSTM LINES FOR SOFTWARE/COMMS CHECK
   
   --- UPDATE ---
   GEN TSTM LINES ARE BEING ADDED TO EXISTING OUTLOOK IN ORDER TO CHECK
   SYSTEMS IN ADVANCE OF OPERATIONAL DAY-3 TSTM OUTLOOKS THAT BEGIN
   TONIGHT.  NO CHANGE IS MADE ATTM TO SVR PROBABILITIES OR PREVIOUS
   REASONING...WHICH FOLLOWS. 
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A WEAK UPPER FLOW FIELD WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE U.S.
   THIS PERIOD...WITH SLIGHTLY FASTER FLOW ALOFT CONFINED TO THE
   NORTHEAST ON THE SRN FRINGE OF ERN CANADA TROUGHING.
   
   A WEAKENING/NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE
   CAROLINAS WWD ACROSS OK WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A ZONE OF SHOWERS
   AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE KS/NRN OK
   REGION AND INTO THE FRONT RANGE WITHIN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION TO THE
   COOL SIDE OF THE SURFACE FRONT.  HOWEVER...EXPECT INSTABILITY TO
   REMAIN INSUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT APPRECIABLE SEVERE THREAT HERE -- AND
   ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONTAL ZONE.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 09/25/2012
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY ACGRIB2DATADIR=/NAWIPS/archive/OUTLOOK/2012/ndfdgrib2
ACHH=otlk_
ACHTMLSTUBFILE=/tmp/day3stub.14577.html
ACHTMLSTUBFILE_ARC=/tmp/day3stub_arc.14577.html
ACHTMLSTUBFILE_PRT=/tmp/day3stub_prt.14577.html
ACHTMLSTUBFILE_WML=/tmp/day3stub_wml.14577.html
ACJS=ac3_.js
ACPTSDATADIR=/NAWIPS/archive/OUTLOOK/2012/pts
ACTEXTDATADIR=/NAWIPS/archive/OUTLOOK/2012/txt
ACTweetFormat=/web/spcwebgen/outlook-filled/twitter/ACTweetFormat.pl
ACVGFDATADIR=/NAWIPS/archive/OUTLOOK/2012/vgf
AFOS_ALARMS=/NAWIPS/nadata2/afos/afos_alarms
AFOS_DATA=/NAWIPS/nadata2/afos/afos_data
AFOS_GRAPH=/NAWIPS/nadata2/afos/afos_graphics
AMD1=
AMD2=
AMD3=_amd
AR=ar
ARFLAGS=crv
AWK=/bin/awk
BASEDIR=/web/spcwebgen
BASH=/bin/sh
BASH_ARGC=()
BASH_ARGV=()
BASH_LINENO=([0]="2228" [1]="0")
BASH_SOURCE=([0]="./zz" [1]="./zz")
BASH_VERSINFO=([0]="3" [1]="2" [2]="25" [3]="1" [4]="release" [5]="x86_64-redhat-linux-gnu")
BASH_VERSION='3.2.25(1)-release'
BEGINTIME=/arc
BUFRFLAGS='-DNO_MSG_IPC -ansi -O'
BUILD_MX_HAZARD=/web/spcwebgen/hazard_matrix/build_mx-hazard.csh
CC=gcc
CFLAGS='-I/NAWIPS/nawips5/gempak/include -I/NAWIPS/nawips5/os/linux2.6.18el64/include -DLinux -DUNDERSCORE -I/usr/X11R6/include -DG_64BIT'
CHK_DAY1_Z=2000
COUNT=5
CURESND=/NAWIPS/nawips0/curfiles/CURESND
CURETA=/NAWIPS/nawips0/curfiles/CURETA
CURETAISEN=/NAWIPS/nawips0/curfiles/CURETAISEN
CURETAP=/NAWIPS/nawips0/curfiles/CURETAP
CURETASP=/NAWIPS/nawips0/curfiles/CURETASP
CURETAZAGL=/NAWIPS/nawips0/curfiles/CURETAZAGL
CURMESO=/NAWIPS/nawips0/curfiles/CURMESO
CURMESOP=/NAWIPS/nawips0/curfiles/CURMESOP
CURMSND=/NAWIPS/nawips0/curfiles/CURMSND
CURNGM=/NAWIPS/nawips0/curfiles/CURNGM
CURNGMP=/NAWIPS/nawips0/curfiles/CURNGMP
CURNGMSP=/NAWIPS/nawips0/curfiles/CURNGMSP
CUROTLK=0730
CURPROF=/NAWIPS/nawips0/curfiles/CURPROF
CURRENTTIME=300
CURRUC=/NAWIPS/nawips0/curfiles/CURRUC
CURRUC2=/NAWIPS/nawips0/curfiles/CURRUC2
CURRUC22=/NAWIPS/nawips0/curfiles/CURRUC22
CURRUCS=/NAWIPS/nawips0/curfiles/CURRUCS
CURSAO=/NAWIPS/nawips0/curfiles/CURSAO
CURSFCOA=/NAWIPS/nawips0/curfiles/CURSFCOA
CURSFCOAR=/NAWIPS/nawips0/curfiles/CURSFCOAR
CURSND=/NAWIPS/nawips0/curfiles/CURSND
CURUA=/NAWIPS/nawips0/curfiles/CURUA
CURUAOA=/NAWIPS/nawips0/curfiles/CURUAOA
CVS_RSH=ssh
DATE=20120925
DATEREVIEWED=2012-09-25
DATETITLE='Sep 25, 2012'
DAY1CATGRIB2=/NAWIPS/archive/OUTLOOK/2012/ndfdgrib2/cat_day1_grib2_2000_20120925195111
DAY1CATGRIB2TIME=20120925195111
DAY1CLASS=slight
DAY1FCSTR=EDWARDS
DAY1FILENAME=day1otlk_2000.html
DAY1FILES='/NAWIPS/archive/OUTLOOK/2012/txt/outlook0100ZDAY1.20120925003502.txt
/NAWIPS/archive/OUTLOOK/2012/txt/outlook1200ZDAY1.20120925054828.txt
/NAWIPS/archive/OUTLOOK/2012/txt/outlook1300ZDAY1.20120925124716.txt
/NAWIPS/archive/OUTLOOK/2012/txt/outlook1630ZDAY1.20120925161522.txt
/NAWIPS/archive/OUTLOOK/2012/txt/outlook2000ZDAY1.20120925195111.txt'
DAY1FILEVGF=/NAWIPS/archive/OUTLOOK/2012/vgf/outlook_DAY1_252000Z.vgf.20120925195111
DAY1HAILGRIB2=/NAWIPS/archive/OUTLOOK/2012/ndfdgrib2/hail_day1_grib2_2000_20120925195111
DAY1HAILGRIB2TIME=20120925195111
DAY1HAILVGF=/NAWIPS/archive/OUTLOOK/2012/vgf/hailoutlook_DAY1_252000Z.vgf.20120925195111
DAY1HAILVGFTIME=20120925195111
DAY1HAZARD=ac-slight
DAY1HAZARDRISK=Slight
DAY1ISSUEDAYTIME='Issued: 25/1951Z'
DAY1RISK='Slight Risk'
DAY1SIGHAILGRIB2=/NAWIPS/archive/OUTLOOK/2012/ndfdgrib2/sighail_day1_grib2_2000_20120925195111
DAY1SIGHAILGRIB2TIME=20120925195111
DAY1SIGTORNGRIB2=/NAWIPS/archive/OUTLOOK/2012/ndfdgrib2/sigtorn_day1_grib2_2000_20120925195111
DAY1SIGTORNGRIB2TIME=20120925195111
DAY1SIGWINDGRIB2=/NAWIPS/archive/OUTLOOK/2012/ndfdgrib2/sigwind_day1_grib2_2000_20120925195111
DAY1SIGWINDGRIB2TIME=20120925195111
DAY1TEXTTIME=20120925195111
DAY1TIME=2000
DAY1TIMES='0100 1200 1300 1630 2000'
DAY1TORNGRIB2=/NAWIPS/archive/OUTLOOK/2012/ndfdgrib2/torn_day1_grib2_2000_20120925195111
DAY1TORNGRIB2TIME=20120925195111
DAY1TORNVGF=/NAWIPS/archive/OUTLOOK/2012/vgf/tornoutlook_DAY1_252000Z.vgf.20120925195111
DAY1TORNVGFTIME=20120925195111
DAY1VALIDTIME=252000
DAY1VALIDTXT='Valid: 25/2000Z - 26/1200Z'
DAY1VGFTIME=20120925195111
DAY1WINDGRIB2=/NAWIPS/archive/OUTLOOK/2012/ndfdgrib2/wind_day1_grib2_2000_20120925195111
DAY1WINDGRIB2TIME=20120925195111
DAY1WINDVGF=/NAWIPS/archive/OUTLOOK/2012/vgf/windoutlook_DAY1_252000Z.vgf.20120925195111
DAY1WINDVGFTIME=20120925195111
DAY1ZZ=/NAWIPS/archive/OUTLOOK/2012/txt/outlook2000ZDAY1.20120925195111.txt
DAY1ZZFMT=/NAWIPS/archive/OUTLOOK/2012/txt/outlook2000ZDAY1.20120925195111.fmt
DAY1_1Z=1Zday1.html
DAY1_1Z_PRODPG=1Zday1_prodpg.html
DAY2CATGRIB2=/NAWIPS/archive/OUTLOOK/2012/ndfdgrib2/cat_day2_grib2_1700_20120925171737
DAY2CATGRIB2TIME=20120925171737
DAY2CLASS=seetext
DAY2FCSTR=EDWARDS
DAY2FILENAME=day2otlk_1730.html
DAY2FILES='/NAWIPS/archive/OUTLOOK/2012/txt/outlook0600ZDAY2.20120925055046.txt
/NAWIPS/archive/OUTLOOK/2012/txt/outlook0600ZDAY2.20120925055046.txt
/NAWIPS/archive/OUTLOOK/2012/txt/outlook1730ZDAY2.20120925171737.txt
/NAWIPS/archive/OUTLOOK/2012/txt/outlook1730ZDAY2.20120925171737.txt'
DAY2FILEVGF=/NAWIPS/archive/OUTLOOK/2012/vgf/outlook_DAY2_261200Z.vgf.20120925171737
DAY2HAZARD=ac-seetext
DAY2HAZARDRISK='See Text'
DAY2ISSUEDAYTIME='Issued: 25/1717Z'
DAY2PROBGRIB2=/NAWIPS/archive/OUTLOOK/2012/ndfdgrib2/prob_day2_grib2_1700_20120925171737
DAY2PROBGRIB2TIME=20120925171737
DAY2PROBVGF=/NAWIPS/archive/OUTLOOK/2012/vgf/proboutlook_DAY2_261200Z.vgf.20120925171737
DAY2PROBVGFTIME=20120925171737
DAY2RISK='See Text'
DAY2SIGPROBGRIB2=/NAWIPS/archive/OUTLOOK/2012/ndfdgrib2/sigprob_day2_grib2_1700_20120925171737
DAY2SIGPROBGRIB2TIME=20120925171737
DAY2TEXTTIME=20120925171737
DAY2TIME=1730
DAY2TIMES='0600 1730'
DAY2VALIDTIME=261200
DAY2VALIDTXT='Valid: 26/1200Z - 27/1200Z'
DAY2VGFTIME=20120925171737
DAY2ZZ=/NAWIPS/archive/OUTLOOK/2012/txt/outlook1730ZDAY2.20120925171737.txt
DAY2ZZFMT=/NAWIPS/archive/OUTLOOK/2012/txt/outlook1730ZDAY2.20120925171737.fmt
DAY3CATGRIB2=/NAWIPS/archive/OUTLOOK/2012/ndfdgrib2/cat_day3_grib2_0730_20120925200949
DAY3CATGRIB2TIME=20120925200949
DAY3CLASS=nosvr
DAY3FCSTR=EDWARDS
DAY3FILENAME=day3otlk__amd.html
DAY3FILES=/NAWIPS/archive/OUTLOOK/2012/txt/outlook0730ZDAY3.20120925200949.txt
DAY3FILEVGF=/NAWIPS/archive/OUTLOOK/2012/vgf/outlook_DAY3_271200Z.vgf.20120925200949
DAY3HAZARD=ac-nosevere
DAY3HAZARDRISK='No Severe'
DAY3ISSUEDAYTIME='Issued: 25/2009Z'
DAY3PROBGRIB2=/NAWIPS/archive/OUTLOOK/2012/ndfdgrib2/prob_day3_grib2_0730_20120925200949
DAY3PROBGRIB2TIME=20120925200949
DAY3PROBVGF=/NAWIPS/archive/OUTLOOK/2012/vgf/proboutlook_DAY3_271200Z.vgf.20120925200949
DAY3PROBVGFTIME=20120925200949
DAY3RISK='No Svr Tstms'
DAY3SIGPROBGRIB2=/NAWIPS/archive/OUTLOOK/2012/ndfdgrib2/sigprob_day3_grib2_0730_20120925200949
DAY3SIGPROBGRIB2TIME=20120925200949
DAY3TEXTTIME=20120925200949
DAY3TIME=
DAY3TIMES=0730
DAY3VALIDTIME=271200
DAY3VALIDTXT='Valid: 27/1200Z - 28/1200Z'
DAY3VGFTIME=20120925200949
DAY3ZZ=/NAWIPS/archive/OUTLOOK/2012/txt/outlook0730ZDAY3.20120925200949.txt
DAY3ZZFMT=/NAWIPS/archive/OUTLOOK/2012/txt/outlook0730ZDAY3.20120925200949.fmt
DAYNUM=3
DEFDAY1TIMES='0100 1200 1300 1630 2000'
DEFDAY1TIMES1='1200 1300 1630 2000'
DEFDAY2TIMES='0600 1730'
DEFDAY2TIMES1='0600 1730'
DEFDAY3TIMES=0730
DEFDAY3TIMES1=0730
DIRSTACK=()
DODAY1=0
DODAY2=0
DODAY3=1
DOGRAPHICS=yes
DONEWPAGE=1
DO_DAY1_12Z=0
DO_DAY1_1Z=0
DTIME=25/2009Z
DY1KML='echo /web/spcwebgen/outlook-filled/pts2kml/dy1pts2kml.pl'
DY23KML='echo /web/spcwebgen/outlook-filled/pts2kml/dy23pts2kml.pl'
EUID=505
FC=g77
FFLAGS='-I/NAWIPS/nawips5/gempak/include -I/NAWIPS/nawips5/os/linux2.6.18el64/include -fno-second-underscore'
FILE=outlook0730ZDAY3.20120925200949.txt
FILETIME1=20120925195111
FILETIME2=20120925171737
FILETIME3=20120925200949
FIND=/usr/bin/find
FNAME=/NAWIPS/archive/OUTLOOK/2012/txt/outlook1730ZDAY2.20120925171737.txt
FTIME='Tue Sep 25 20:18:45 UTC 2012'
FTPPROG=/web/spcwebgen/bin/wwwftp.exp
FUNCNAME=([0]="nextoutlook" [1]="main")
GEMDATA=/NAWIPS/nawips5/gempak/data
GEMERR=/NAWIPS/nawips5/gempak/error
GEMEXE=/NAWIPS/nawips5/os/linux2.6.18el64/bin
GEMGTXT=/NAWIPS/nawips5/gempak/txt/gemlib
GEMHLP=/NAWIPS/nawips5/gempak/help
GEMINC=/NAWIPS/nawips5/gempak/include
GEMMAPS=/NAWIPS/nawips5/gempak/maps
GEMNTS=/NAWIPS/nawips5/gempak/nts
GEMPAK=/NAWIPS/nawips5/gempak
GEMPARM=/NAWIPS/nawips5/gempak/parm
GEMPDF=/NAWIPS/nawips5/gempak/pdf
GEMPTXT=/NAWIPS/nawips5/gempak/txt/programs
GEMTBL=/NAWIPS/nawips5/gempak/tables
GMS=/NAWIPS/nadata2/images/satellite/GMS
GOES8=/NAWIPS/nadata2/images/satellite/GOES-8
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GREP=/bin/egrep
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GROUP=games
GROUPS=()
GRPHGD=/web/spcwebl
G_BROKEN_FILENAMES=1
HEAD=/usr/bin/head
HOME=/web/spcwebl
HOST=rhesrv26.spc.noaa.gov
HOSTNAME=rhesrv26.spc.noaa.gov
HOSTTYPE=x86_64-linux
HTMLACTOPTEMPLATE=/web/spcwebgen/etc/spccwi_template_ac_prodpage_top.html.ssi
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HTMLBOTTOMTEMPLATE_PRT_ARC=/web/spcwebgen/etc/spccwi_template_bottom_prt_arc.html
HTMLTOPTEMPLATE=/web/spcwebgen/etc/spccwi_template_prodpage_top_nav_wide_overlay.html.ssi
HTMLTOPTEMPLATE_FB_AC1=/web/spcwebgen/etc/spccwi_template_prodpage_top_nav_wide_overlay_fb_ac1.html.ssi
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IFS=' 	
'
INCLUDES='-I/NAWIPS/nawips5/gempak/include -I/NAWIPS/nawips5/os/linux2.6.18el64/include'
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INPUTRC=/etc/inputrc
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KDEDIR=/usr
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LANG=en_US.UTF-8
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LOCK_FILE=/tmp/.outlook-filled.lock
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MACHTYPE=x86_64
MAIL=/var/spool/mail/spcwebl
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MODEL_PFCST=/NAWIPS/nadata2/model/pfcst
MODEL_SFC=/NAWIPS/nadata2/model
MODEL_SND=/NAWIPS/nadata2/model
NADATA=/NAWIPS/nadata2
NAWIPS=/NAWIPS/nawips5
NAWIPS_TABLES=/NAWIPS/nawips5/tables
NA_OS=linux2.6.18el64
NCOLOR=/NAWIPS/nawips5/gempak/source/programs/gui/ncolor
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NMAP=/NAWIPS/nawips5/gempak/source/programs/gui/nmap2
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NMODEL=/NAWIPS/nadata2/model
NPRINTER=
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OS=Linux
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OS_VER=2
OTLKTIME=
PAGEID='Sep 25, 2012  UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook'
PAGETITLE='Storm Prediction Center Sep 25, 2012  UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook'
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PIPESTATUS=([0]="0")
PLOTDIR=/web/spcwebgen/outlook-filled/mkotlk
PLOTOVERVIEWPROG=/web/spcwebgen/outlook-filled/day1otlk-overview.csh
PLOTPROG=/web/spcwebgen/outlook-filled/mkotlk/mkdy123otlk
PLOTSREFLAYERPROG=/web/spcwebgen/outlook-filled/sref_layer/otlk
POSIXLY_CORRECT=y
PPID=1059
PREVTIME=1630
PS4='+ '
PWD=/web/spcwebl/spcwebgen/outlook-filled
PWODIR=/NAWIPS/archive/PWO/2012/txt
PWO_STATEMENT_PROG=/web/spcwebgen/bin/pwo_statement.pl
QTDIR=/usr/lib64/qt-3.3
QTINC=/usr/lib64/qt-3.3/include
QTLIB=/usr/lib64/qt-3.3/lib
RAD=/NAWIPS/nadata2/images/satellite
REMOTEHOST=hpcbu.spc.noaa.gov
RM='rm -f'
SAT=/NAWIPS/nadata2/images/satellite
SHELL=/bin/tcsh
SHELLOPTS=braceexpand:hashall:interactive-comments:posix
SHLVL=2
SPCTweet=/web/spcwebgen/bin/spc-tweepy.py
SSH_ASKPASS=/usr/libexec/openssh/gnome-ssh-askpass
STATUS1=0
STATUS2=0
STATUS3=0
STDT=CDT
STDT1=CDT
TEMPTIMES=
TERM=xterm
TEXT_DATA=/NAWIPS/nadata2/text
TEXT_DATA2=/LDMSPC/data/newnwx
TIME=2018
TIMEPROG=/web/spcwebgen/bin/dotime
UID=505
USER=spcwebl
VALIDSTRING='VALID 271200Z - 281200Z'
VALID_DAY1_1Z=valid_day1_1z.html
VENDOR=unknown
VGFFILE=/NAWIPS/archive/OUTLOOK/2012/vgf/outlook_DAY3_271200Z.vgf.20120925200949
VGFTEMP=vgfdump.14577
XLIBS='-lXm -lXt -lX11 -lSM -lICE -lXp -lXext -lXmu -lXft -ljpeg -lpng -lz'
XMICONSEARCHPATH=/NAWIPS/nawips5/icons/%N/%B
XUSERFILESEARCHPATH=./%N:/web/spcwebl/%N:/web/spcwebl/Resource/%N:/NAWIPS/nawips5/resource/%N:./%N:/NAWIPS/nascrpts/production/nsharp/%N
YACGRIB2DATADIR=/NAWIPS/archive/OUTLOOK/2012/ndfdgrib2
YACPTSDATADIR=/NAWIPS/archive/OUTLOOK/2012/pts
YACTEXTDATADIR=/NAWIPS/archive/OUTLOOK/2012/txt
YACVGFDATADIR=/NAWIPS/archive/OUTLOOK/2012/vgf
YDATE=20120924
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YPWODIR=/NAWIPS/archive/PWO/2012/txt
YYEAR=2012
_=']'
i=/NAWIPS/archive/OUTLOOK/2012/txt/outlook0730ZDAY3.20120925200949.txtZ

        
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120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: September 25, 2012
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