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Jul 24, 2014 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Thu Jul 24 07:29:34 UTC 2014 (Print Version | 20140724 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20140724 0730Z Day 3 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 240729

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0229 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

   VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS TO THE OH
   VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   CLUSTERS OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT
   PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL CYCLONE OVER THE SRN PRAIRIE PROVINCES WILL
   ACCELERATE SE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY EARLY SUN. A BROAD BELT OF
   STRONG MID-LEVEL WLYS SHOULD BE PREVALENT FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE
   LOWER GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT SHOULD
   BE DRAPED ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS TO LOWER GREAT LAKES. AN
   OCCLUDED FRONT WILL EXTEND S OF THE PRIMARY CANADIAN CYCLONE ACROSS
   THE UPPER MIDWEST.

   ...CNTRL PLAINS TO OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES...
   S OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT...A STRONG TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR
   MASS SHOULD BE PRESENT FROM PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS TO MIDWEST AS
   THE PLAINS EML PLUME IS ADVECTED E TOWARDS THE NRN APPALACHIANS.
   WAA-DRIVEN ELEVATED TSTM CLUSTERS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT 12Z/SAT OVER
   PARTS OF THE MIDWEST. IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY...CAPPING SHOULD
   LARGELY INHIBIT SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT UNTIL LATE DAY. THE
   DEGREE OF INHIBITION SHOULD GENERALLY BE LESS COMPARED TO D2...OWING
   TO MINOR HEIGHT FALLS AND COOLER 700 MB TEMPERATURES /ESPECIALLY E
   OF THE MS RIVER/. 

   SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF STORMS SHOULD FORM BY EVENING WITHIN THE
   FRONTAL ZONE. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...ALONG WITH
   STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...AN ORGANIZED MCS OR TWO MAY
   DEVELOP. LARGE HAIL WILL BE MOST PROBABLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
   AND EVENING...WITH POTENTIAL FOR ONE OR MORE SWATHS OF DAMAGING
   WINDS DURING THE EVENING INTO SAT NIGHT. IF SHORTER-TERM MESOSCALE
   PREDICTABILITY INCREASES...CORRIDORS OF HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES
   MAY BECOME EVIDENT IN LATER OUTLOOKS. 

   ...UPPER MS VALLEY...
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION ALONG
   THE OCCLUDED FRONT SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTIES
   ARE -- 1) RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING S OF THE CNTRL PLAINS
   TO MIDWEST FRONT...2) POTENTIAL ELEVATED STORMS OVER SD LATE D2
   HINDERING DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION AND 3) STRENGTH OF CONVERGENCE
   ALONG THE OCCLUDED FRONT. STILL...AN ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND
   LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND THREAT APPEARS POSSIBLE.

   ..GRAMS.. 07/24/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

        
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Page last modified: July 24, 2014
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