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Jun 27, 2017 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Tue Jun 27 07:27:01 UTC 2017 (Print Version | 20170627 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20170627 0730Z Day 3 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 270727

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0227 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

   Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
   PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
   HIGH PLAINS INTO THE NORTHEAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered severe thunderstorms are most likely on Thursday from the
   central Plains into the Midwest, with hail and damaging wind.
   Isolated strong storms are also possible across the central High
   Plains, and over parts of the Northeast.

   ...Synopsis...
   An upper low will sink southward into ND with a broad area of
   cyclonic flow aloft from the central Plains into the Great Lakes. At
   the surface, low pressure will deepen over central KS as a cold
   front moves southward across the central High Plains. To the east, a
   quasi-stationary front will extend from the NE/KS border across IA
   and toward Lake Michigan during the day, with a broad area of moist,
   southerly winds east of the low across the MS and OH Valleys with
   mid to upper 60s F dewpoints. The combination of 30+ kt midlevel
   flow, 30-40 kt 850 mb flow, and a broad area of moisture and
   instability will lead to a large area of severe weather potential
   stretching from the central Plains across the Midwest. 

   ...Central Plains into the mid MS Valley...
   While difficult to be precise due to likely effects of early storms
   and outflows, bouts of thunderstorm activity are likely throughout
   the day from eastern KS into western PA and NY, with the most
   concentrated area of severe weather expected to form after 18Z from
   eastern NE/KS across IA and northern MO. Here, instability will be
   greatest, with MUCAPE possibly reaching 2500-3000 J/kg. Indications
   are that an MCS could form along the stationary front across eastern
   NE and KS, with activity moving across IA and northern MO. Damaging
   winds are most likely, along with hail. Other storms are expected to
   form near the surface low and along the cold front into central KS
   near or after 00Z. Some of this activity could be in the form of
   supercells briefly before becoming linear, with hail and wind
   threat.

   ...Midwest into the Northeast...
   At least isolated strong to severe storms are expected by afternoon
   along the front from IL into OH in an elongating plume of
   instability supported by strong west-southwest flow. Winds aloft
   look to be parallel to the boundary, which should keep activity
   within a narrow west-east zone. Strong 850 mb flow, especially into
   NY and PA, suggest strong wind gusts will be the main threat as
   instability will be weakest there. Potentially, a supercell could
   occur as SRH will be maximized along the eastward-moving warm front
   into NY.

   ..Jewell.. 06/27/2017

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

        
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Page last modified: June 27, 2017
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