SPC AC 050649
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0149 AM CDT SAT NOV 05 2011
   
   VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OK AND
   TX....
   
   ..SYNOPSIS...
   IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EWD FROM AZ/UT INTO THE
   ERN NM/TX PANHANDLE AND BE THE PRIMARY FACTOR FOR SEVERE CONVECTION
   THIS PERIOD. WHILE LATEST DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE
   AGREEMENT ON OVERALL PATTERN...00Z NAM/ECMWF CYCLOGENESIS IS
   SLOWER...AS IS THE EWD MOTION OF THE DEVELOPING LOW...AS COMPARED TO
   THE 00Z GFS. LATEST NAM/ECMWF ARE PREFERRED GIVEN THAT THE STRONGER
   FORCING/JET MAX WILL BE LOCATED ON THE SRN BASE OF THE TROUGH UNTIL
   THE END OF THE PERIOD. THEREFORE BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...AT THE
   SURFACE...EXPECT WEAKENING FRONT TO EXTEND FROM NEAR CNU SWWD TO A
   WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR CDS...WITH A DRYLINE STRETCHING SWD FROM THE
   LOW ACROSS WRN TX. SURFACE LOW/FRONT/DRYLINE SHOULD EDGE ONLY SLOWLY
   EWD OVERNIGHT.
   
   ...TX/OK...
   STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE....BETWEEN THE POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL
   JETS...IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND CONVECTION
   ACROSS THE REGION MUCH OF THE DAY...LIMITING HEATING AND CONSEQUENT
   SURFACE INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...AS THE STRONGER DIFFLUENCE SHIFTS
   EWD...PCPN/CLOUDS MAY DECREASE SUFFICIENTLY FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM
   INTO THE 70S...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SWRN OK AND NWRN TX. THESE READINGS
   COMBINED WITH 60-65 DEGREE DEWPOINTS AND STEEP MID/HIGH LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES WOULD YIELD MLCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY PLUS
   VEERING AND STRENGTHENING WIND PROFILES WITH HEIGHT...YIELDING 50-60
   KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. WHILE
   LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT...THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND
   20-30 KT OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALSO FAVOR TORNADOES. ATTM...THE
   GREATEST THREAT FOR THE MORE INTENSE STORMS APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS
   SWRN OK/NWRN TX AND IS DEPICTED BY THE 30% SEVERE PROBABILITY LINE
   ON THE PROBABILITY GRAPHIC. WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD PERSIST
   INTO THE EVENING AS THE STORMS SPREAD NEWD INTO CENTRAL OK/NRN
   TX...WEAKER INSTABILITY/LAPSE RATES SUGGESTS THE STORMS WILL NOT BE
   AS INTENSE OR AS NUMEROUS AS THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP EARLIER IN THE
   AFTERNOON.
   
   ..IMY.. 11/05/2011
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z