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May 26, 2017 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Fri May 26 07:21:04 UTC 2017 (Print Version | 20170526 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20170526 0730Z Day 3 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 260721

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0221 AM CDT Fri May 26 2017

   Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...ARKLATEX...MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND OHIO
   VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OUTSIDE OF THE
   SLIGHT RISK ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...ARKLATEX...MID
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...OHIO VALLEY...GREAT LAKES...CENTRAL
   APPALACHIANS AND CAROLINAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered severe thunderstorms with a threat for large hail, wind
   damage and a few tornadoes will be possible on Sunday across parts
   of the mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Large hail and wind damage
   will also be possible across parts of the southern Plains and
   Arklatex.

   ...Mid Mississippi Valley/Ohio Valley...
   An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the mid to
   upper Mississippi Valley on Sunday as a cold front advances
   southeastward into the Ohio and mid Mississippi Valleys. A moist
   airmass is forecast ahead of the front with surface dewpoints in the
   mid to upper 60s F. This should be enough for the development of
   moderate instability by afternoon across prats of western Tennessee,
   Kentucky, southern Indiana and Ohio. Model forecasts along this
   corridor generally develop scattered convection during the late
   afternoon as the upper-level trough approaches. GFS forecast
   soundings at 00Z/Monday from Memphis, Tennessee northeastward to
   Louisville, Kentucky show MLCAPE values of 2000 to 2500 J/kg with
   0-6 km shear values from 40 to 50 kt. If the convection can develop
   into clusters with discrete cells, then the environment would
   support supercells with large hail, wind damage and possibly a
   tornado threat. If convection tends to organize into line segments,
   wind damage could be the primary threat. A tendency to go linear may
   be the more likely outcome due to unidirectional wind profiles and
   the deep-layer shear vectors being somewhat parallel to the
   boundary. The exact corridor with the highest severe threat will
   likely depend upon the position of the cold front by late Sunday
   afternoon.

   ...Southern Plains/Arklatex...
   Westerly to west-southwesterly mid-level flow is forecast to be in
   place across the Southern Plains and Arklatex on Sunday as a cold
   front advances southeastward across the region. Ahead of the front,
   surface dewpoints are forecast to be in the upper 60s and lower 70s
   F with a corridor of moderate to strong instability in place by
   afternoon. Model forecasts appear to develop convection along the
   front and on the cool side of the front Sunday afternoon and
   evening. GFS forecast soundings near the front at 00Z/Monday across
   the Texas Hill Country and Arklatex show strong instability (MLCAPE
   of 2500 to 4000 J/kg) with 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 40 kt range.
   This combined with steep lapse rates in the 500-300 mb layer would
   support supercell development with isolated large hail. Wind damage
   would also be possible especially with storms that can persist and
   develop mature downdrafts.

   ..Broyles.. 05/26/2017

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

        
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Page last modified: May 26, 2017
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