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Oct 31, 2015 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Sat Oct 31 07:23:16 UTC 2015 (Print Version | 20151031 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20151031 0730Z Day 3 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 310723

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0223 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015

   VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ON MONDAY...BUT LOCALLY STRONG WIND
   GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD DAMPEN AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE DEEP
   SOUTH TO OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A WEAKENING SURFACE CYCLONE
   SHOULD SIMILARLY FOLLOW A NEWD TRACK ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM GA
   TO THE CAROLINAS. IN THE WEST...A FULL-LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD
   DEVELOP BY EARLY TUE AS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE IMPULSE APPROACHES THE
   DESERT SW.

   ...SOUTHEAST...
   WHILE THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM SHOULD BE IN A DECAYING STATE...MODEL
   PROGS DIFFER SUBSTANTIALLY WITH THE RATE OF DECAY. SOME PROGS
   SUGGEST STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL SWLYS WILL REMAIN PREVALENT WITHIN THE
   WARM SECTOR DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. THIS MIGHT SUPPORT
   A RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE CYCLONE TRACK
   GIVEN AROUND 70 DEG F DEW POINTS. BUT WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT
   BECOMING PREDOMINATELY CONFINED N OF THE WARM SECTOR...CONVERGENCE
   LIKELY WEAKENING ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AND RELATIVELY WARM
   MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES...OVERALL SETUP APPEARS MARGINAL AT MOST. THE
   MARGINAL CONDITIONAL NATURE OF THE THREAT IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
   LARGE MODEL SPREAD RENDERS SEVERE PROBABILITIES OF LESS THAN 5
   PERCENT.

   ..GRAMS.. 10/31/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z

        
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Page last modified: October 31, 2015
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