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Apr 24, 2014 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Thu Apr 24 07:13:49 UTC 2014 (Print Version | 20140424 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20140424 0730Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Probabilistic
 Population  Cities  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 195,499 7,682,568 Oklahoma City, OK...Omaha, NE...Tulsa, OK...Wichita, KS...Lincoln, NE...
 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 240712

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0212 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

   VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
   PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A
   DRYLINE ACROSS PORTIONS OF KANSAS...OKLAHOMA...AND PARTS OF WEST
   TEXAS.  VERY LARGE HAIL...AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES...CAN BE EXPECTED.

   ...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

   STRONG MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX IS FORECAST TO ROUND THE BASE OF A
   PROGRESSIVE TROUGH ALONG THE SWRN U.S./MEXICAN BORDER EARLY SATURDAY
   BEFORE SHIFTING INTO NM BY 27/00Z.  THIS FEATURE WILL THEN EJECT
   INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS OF WESTERN KS OVERNIGHT...INCREASING TO
   80KT+ AT 500MB.  INTENSE 12-HR MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS...APPROACHING
   200M...WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS CENTERED ON SERN CO.

   AS UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE SRN ROCKIES...SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN
   OVER ERN CO AND A WELL-DEFINED LEE TROUGH WILL EXTEND SWD INTO NRN
   MEXICO.  INTENSE HEATING IS EXPECTED ALONG THIS TROUGH DURING THE
   DAY AND A DRYLINE SHOULD MIX INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE BY 21Z. 
   WHILE WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
   INCREASE ACROSS THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IT
   APPEARS DRYLINE CONVECTION MAY INITIALLY INGEST 50S SFC DEW POINTS
   AS TEMPERATURES RISE THROUGH THE 80S...TO PERHAPS NEAR 90F FARTHER
   SOUTH ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU.  CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
   BREACHED BY 21Z AND SCT SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
   BOUNDARY.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL INITIALLY BE DRIVEN BY DIABATIC
   HEATING AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SPEED MAX
   WILL LAG THIS CORRIDOR OF INITIATION UNTIL WELL AFTER DARK.  DELAYED
   LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT MAY LIMIT THE NUMBER OF STORMS THAT ULTIMATELY
   EVOLVE ALONG THE DRYLINE.

   CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WILL DO SO ALONG
   A NARROW CORRIDOR OF 3000 J/KG SBCAPE AND SHOULD MATURE INTO THE
   EARLY EVENING HOURS AS VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES FROM THE WEST. 
   SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...GREATER THAN 2 INCHES...ARE
   EXPECTED.  AS TSTMS SHIFT EAST AND BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS SLIGHTLY
   THERE MAY BE A PROPENSITY FOR CLOUD BASES TO LOWER AND TAKE
   ADVANTAGE OF LOWER 60S SFC DEW POINTS.  AS A RESULT...TORNADO THREAT
   SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE ACTIVITY
   DECOUPLES FROM THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

   WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING EXPECTED TO EJECT INTO THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT
   THERE MAY BE CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE AS IT BEGINS
   TO SURGE ACROSS SWRN KS/WRN OK/NWRN TX.

   SEVERE PROBABILITIES MAY BE INCREASED ACROSS THIS REGION IF
   MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX/FORCING OVERSPREADS THE DRYLINE AT A MORE
   FAVORABLE TIME DIURNALLY.

   ..DARROW.. 04/24/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

        
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