Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

< Day 2 Outlook   Day 4 - 8 Outlook >
Sep 4, 2015 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Fri Sep 4 07:11:51 UTC 2015 (Print Version | 20150904 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20150904 0730Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Probabilistic
 Population  Cities  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 040711

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0211 AM CDT FRI SEP 04 2015

   VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS
   AND UPPER MS VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW SEVERE...ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
   ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

   ...NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY...

   NRN ROCKIES TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS
   EARLY IN THE DAY3 PERIOD AS 65KT 500MB SPEED MAX EJECTS ACROSS WY
   INTO CNTRL ND BY 07/00Z.  HIGH PLAINS SFC FRONT WILL SURGE ACROSS
   THE WRN DAKOTAS TO A POSITION NEAR THE DAKOTAS/MN BORDER BY LATE
   AFTERNOON.  WHILE LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
   RESPONSIBLE FOR ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS ND AT DAYBREAK
   SATURDAY...POTENTIALLY MORE ROBUST CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE LATER IN
   THE AFTERNOON ALONG ADVANCING COLD FRONT.  LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
   SUGGESTS A NARROW CORRIDOR OF BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING/DESTABILIZATION
   IS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF WIND SHIFT FROM ERN NEBRASKA...NWD INTO NRN MN.
   ALTHOUGH STRONGEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD LAG THE COLD FRONT
   SOMEWHAT...IT APPEARS ADEQUATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FOR
   ORGANIZED CONVECTION THAT EVOLVES ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR.  NAM IS
   CONSIDERABLY MORE MOIST/BUOYANT THAN GFS...ROUGHLY DOUBLE...WITH
   SUBSTANTIAL SBCAPE...IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG...ACROSS THE MRGL RISK
   AREA.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION...AND
   STRONGEST SHEAR/FORCING SOMEWHAT LAGGING THE SFC FRONT...WILL ONLY
   INTRODUCE 5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBS TO ACCOUNT FOR HAIL/WIND WITH TSTMS
   THAT DEVELOP.

   ..DARROW.. 09/04/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

        
Top/Latest Day 1 Outlook/Today's Outlooks/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: September 04, 2015
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities