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Jul 2, 2015 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Thu Jul 2 07:14:39 UTC 2015 (Print Version | 20150702 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20150702 0730Z Day 3 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 020714

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0214 AM CDT THU JUL 02 2015

   VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE GULF STATES...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE GULF STATES SATURDAY
   AND OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.  STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT
   THOUGH HAIL COULD ALSO ACCOMPANY THE PLAINS STORMS.

   ...GULF STATES...

   UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. WILL GRADUALLY LOSE ITS IDENTITY THIS
   WEEKEND AS FLOW WEAKENS AT LOW LATITUDES OVER THE GULF STATES.  EVEN
   SO...STRONG...DIURNALLY ENHANCED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
   DEVELOP FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO GA.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
   EVOLVE WITHIN SEASONALLY MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SEEMINGLY FAVORABLE
   FOR LOOSELY ORGANIZED CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS. 
   CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND SEVERE
   THREAT SHOULD WANE AFTER DARK.

   ...HIGH PLAINS...

   NWLY FLOW ON FRONT SIDE OF WRN U.S. RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
   HIGH PLAINS INTO THE DAY3 PERIOD AND FORECAST WIND PROFILES ARE
   EXPECTED TO EXHIBIT SUBSTANTIAL VEERING WITH HEIGHT AND ADEQUATE
   SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS.  PATTERN FAVORS A LEE TROUGH ACROSS
   THE HIGH PLAINS AND STRONG DIURNAL HEATING IS EXPECTED TO AID
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BY LATE
   AFTERNOON.  A FEW SUPERCELLS COULD EVOLVE ALONG THIS
   CORRIDOR...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE BLACK HILLS WHERE INCREASING LLJ
   COULD MAINTAIN DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WELL AFTER DARK.  HAIL
   AND WIND ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS ACROSS THIS REGION.

   ..DARROW.. 07/02/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

        
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Page last modified: July 02, 2015
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