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Apr 27, 2017 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Thu Apr 27 07:22:13 UTC 2017 (Print Version | 20170427 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20170427 0730Z Day 3 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 270722

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0222 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

   Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL
   THROUGH NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST AR...

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM A PORTION OF
   THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY REGION...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM A PORTION
   OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   More numerous severe storms are expected from central through east
   Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley Saturday. Other strong to
   severe storms might also occur over a portion of the Ohio Valley
   region.

   ...Synopsis...

   Dominant feature of interest will be a shortwave trough that will
   amplify over the southern Rockies before continuing east through the
   southern Plains on Saturday. Downstream from this feature an upper
   ridge will build over the eastern states. At the surface a
   quasi-stationary front will extend from the Ohio Valley into OK.
   However, a cold front will merge with this boundary and continue
   southeast through OK and TX, reaching the lower MS Valley by the end
   of the period.

   ...Southern Plains through the lower Mississippi Valley region...

   Storms will likely be ongoing along baroclinic zone from OK into
   AR/MO, and some of this activity will pose an ongoing threat for
   hail and strong wind gusts. A moist and strongly unstable warm
   sector will reside across central and eastern TX into the lower MS
   Valley. A capping inversion associated with the EML will probably
   limit thunderstorm development across most of TX until the arrival
   of deeper forcing for ascent accompanying the shortwave trough and
   attendant cold front later in the afternoon. Strong vertical shear
   and large hodographs will exist in warm sector, but initiation
   should remain confined to cold frontal zone where storms may a
   tendency to be undercut as they evolve into linear modes.
   Nevertheless, embedded supercell and bowing segments appear likely.
   Large hail and damaging wind will be the primary threats, but a few
   tornadoes will also be possible as activity develops through east TX
   and the lower MS Valley during the period.  

   ...Ohio Valley area...

   Storms should be ongoing early Saturday within zone of isentropic
   ascent just north of the stationary front, and this activity will
   pose some ongoing risk for hail and a few strong wind gusts. The
   tendency will be for the upper ridge to build along with some
   weakening of the eastern extension of the low-level jet, and these
   may provide limiting factors to overall severe threat. Nevertheless,
   storms will be embedded within strong unidirectional wind/shear
   profiles, and there will be some opportunity for activity to
   intensify in frontal zone as inflow originates from an increasingly
   unstable warm sector. A further eastward expansion of the slight
   risk area might be warranted in later outlooks.

   ..Dial.. 04/27/2017

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

        
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Page last modified: April 27, 2017
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