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May 5, 2016 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Thu May 5 07:13:21 UTC 2016 (Print Version | 20160505 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20160505 0730Z Day 3 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 050713

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0213 AM CDT THU MAY 05 2016

   VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
   PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ALONG THE TX DRY LINE INTO NRN
   MISSOURI...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP PRIMARILY
   ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY.  ISOLATED STRONG STORMS MAY
   DEVELOP ALONG A DRY LINE ACROSS WEST TEXAS.

   ...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...

   SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING
   THE EVOLUTION OF UPPER TROUGH AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE SWRN U.S.
   TOWARD THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS.  IT APPEARS A BELT OF STRONG 500MB
   FLOW...ON THE ORDER OF 60KT+...WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS SERN NM INTO
   THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.  EXIT REGION OF THIS FEATURE WILL ENCOURAGE
   ASCENT ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS DURING THE LATE
   AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

   IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE...LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE WILL BECOME MORE
   FOCUSED BY PEAK HEATING AS SFC CYCLONE DEVELOPS IN FAVORABLE LEE
   POSITION OVER ECNTRL CO.  PRIMARY NEGATIVE FOR POTENTIALLY MORE
   SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WILL BE THE LACK OF QUALITY BOUNDARY-LAYER
   MOISTURE.  SFC DEW POINTS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE ACROSS THE PLAINS
   DUE TO RECENT COLD FRONTAL PENETRATION OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. 
   LATEST THINKING IS 40S SFC DEW POINTS MAY BE COMMON ALONG A GOOD
   PORTION OF THE DRY LINE...AT LEAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  DELAYED
   MOISTURE RETURN MAY ACTUALLY RESULT IN MORE CONCENTRATED CONVECTION
   ACROSS UPSLOPE REGIONS OF CO...JUST NORTH OF AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW.
    FORECAST SHEAR PROFILES FAVOR SUPERCELLS AND EXIT REGION OF UPPER
   JET SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME LONGEVITY INTO THE
   EVENING HOURS.  IF SFC DEW POINTS CAN CLIMB TO NEAR 50F ACROSS NERN
   CO SHEAR PROFILES/INSTABILITY WOULD SEEM SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE
   HAIL...STRONG WINDS...AND TORNADOES.

   AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE SRN PLAINS
   DRY LINE WILL BE QUITE HIGH BASED IN NATURE...THOUGH STRONGLY
   SHEARED.  HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE HIGH-BASED
   STORMS.

   ..DARROW.. 05/05/2016

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

        
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Page last modified: May 05, 2016
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