SPC AC 200727
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0227 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
   
   VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LOWER GREAT LAKES/MID AND UPPER
   OH VALLEY REGIONS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AS A LARGE UPPER LOW/TROUGH SETTLES SLOWLY SEWD INTO THE WRN
   CONUS...A SECOND UPPER TROUGH EXITING THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL MOVE
   SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/MID SOUTH REGIONS.  AT THE SURFACE...A
   STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE GREAT
   BASIN AHEAD OF THE WRN UPPER TROUGH...WHILE A MUCH WEAKER COOL FRONT
   CROSSES THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY/MID SOUTH THROUGH THE
   PERIOD.
   
   ...WRN PORTIONS OF NY/PA WWD ACROSS THE MID OH VALLEY...
   WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER FROM THE START OF THE
   PERIOD ONWARD IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...WHICH SHOULD
   GREATLY HINDER DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL ACROSS MOST AREAS. 
   STILL...WITH MODERATE FLOW /30 TO 45 KT/ THROUGH MOST OF THE LOWER
   HALF OF THE TROPOSPHERE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY REGION AHEAD OF THE
   WEAK/ADVANCING FRONT...SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER -- MAINLY
   IN THE FORM OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS -- APPEARS TO EXIST. 
   THUS...WILL INTRODUCE 15%/SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE MID AND UPPER OH
   VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TO COVER A POSSIBLE
   AFTERNOON/EVENING RAMP-UP IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY.
   
   ...SABINE AND LOWER MS RIVER VALLEYS AND VICINITY...
   SLIGHTLY ENHANCED FLOW ALOFT ACCOMPANYING A VORT MAX FORECAST TO BE
   CROSSING E TX EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL SUPPORT MODEST SHEAR ACROSS
   LA AND SURROUNDING AREAS.  WHILE QUESTIONS REGARDING DEGREE OF
   DESTABILIZATION EXIST DUE TO REMNANT CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION...THE
   ENHANCED FLOW FIELD ALOFT MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER CELLS AND THUS
   LOW-PROBABILITY SEVERE POTENTIAL.
   
   ...TX...
   WITH MODEST SHEAR AND AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION FORECAST ACROSS
   TX...SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EVIDENT.  HOWEVER...WITH
   RIDGING/SUBSIDENCE FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE
   W...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED/ISOLATED. 
   THUS...WILL CARRY ONLY LOW /5%/ SEVERE PROBABILITY ACROSS THE SRN
   PLAINS.
   
   ..GOSS.. 05/20/2013
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z