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Sep 18, 2014 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Thu Sep 18 07:31:08 UTC 2014 (Print Version | 20140918 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20140918 0730Z Day 3 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 180731

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0231 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

   VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY FROM THE
   INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EASTWARD TO THE GREAT PLAINS AND NORTHEASTWARD TO
   THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL
   WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
   PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD TO LOWER MICHIGAN. OTHER STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
   DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF COAST STATES AND ALONG SOUTHERN
   PARTS OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.

   ...CNTRL PLAINS/MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES...
   A LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE
   UPPER MS VALLEY ON SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
   BASE OF THE LARGER-SCALE TROUGH. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT IS
   FORECAST TO ADVANCE SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND UPPER MS
   VALLEY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO
   UPPER 60S F AND MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY LATE
   AFTERNOON. SFC HEATING AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
   THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM INITIATION BY LATE
   AFTERNOON.

   FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 00Z/SUNDAY FOR CHICAGO IL AND ALPENA MI SHOW
   0-6 SHEAR OF 45 TO 50 KT AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
   HOWEVER...MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT CONCERNING THE AMOUNT
   OF INSTABILITY THAT WILL BE PRESENT. IF MODERATE INSTABILITY CAN
   DEVELOP AS SOME MODELS SUGGEST...THEN A WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL THREAT
   WOULD BE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST
   FROM NE KS INTO SE IA...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN
   IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION. IN SPITE OF THIS...STRONGER INSTABILITY
   AND HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS COULD HELP COMPENSATE FOR THE WEAKNESS IN
   SHEAR...MAKING A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT POSSIBLE AS WELL.

   ..BROYLES.. 09/18/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

        
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Page last modified: September 18, 2014
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