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Mar 28, 2017 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Tue Mar 28 07:24:36 UTC 2017 (Print Version | 20170328 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20170328 0730Z Day 3 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 280724

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0224 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

   Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
   WEST TN...EASTERN AR...AND NORTHERN MS...

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY AND TN VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY...AND INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are expected on Thursday from parts of the
   middle and lower Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley.

   ...Lower/Mid MS Valley into TN Valley...
   A strong upper trough will continue moving eastward across the
   southern Plains and into the mid/lower MS valley on Thursday. 
   Thunderstorms are expected to form during the afternoon along/ahead
   of the cold front/dryline over AR/LA and track eastward into MS/TN. 
   Forecast soundings indicate the potential for strong CAPE ahead of
   the front, along with favorable shear profiles for organized/severe
   storms.  Model solutions are quite consistent on the position of
   main trough axis, but the details of shortwave timing/locations are
   quite diverse.  Nevertheless, a consensus of guidance provides
   sufficient confidence to upgrade a portion of western TN, eastern
   AR, and northern MS to an ENH risk for Thursday.

   ..Hart.. 03/28/2017

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

        
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Page last modified: March 28, 2017
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