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Aug 28, 2016 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Sun Aug 28 07:16:05 UTC 2016 (Print Version | 20160828 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20160828 0730Z Day 3 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 280716

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0216 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

   VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON TUESDAY FROM THE
   ROCKIES EASTWARD INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHWARD INTO THE
   TENNESSEE VALLEY AND GULF COAST STATES.

   ...CNTRL PLAINS/MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY...
   A LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE
   GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A HIGH-AMPLITUDE POSITIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH LOCATED IN THE CNTRL PLAINS. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT IS
   FORECAST TO MOVE SWD ACROSS THE MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY EXTENDING
   WSWWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY
   BE ALREADY DEVELOPED TUESDAY MORNING. IF CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS
   GREAT ENOUGH IN THE CNTRL PLAINS...OUTFLOW WITH THIS CONVECTION
   WOULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPEDE DESTABILIZATION. MODERATE INSTABILITY
   WILL BE MORE LIKELY FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST FROM IA ENEWD INTO NRN
   IL...SRN WI AND POSSIBLY SRN LOWER MI BY AFTERNOON WHERE STRONGER
   THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
   A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...THE ECMWF...NAM AND
   GFS SOLUTIONS DIFFER MARKEDLY CONCERNING INSTABILITY...DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR AND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE FROM THE MID MO VALLEY NEWD INTO THE
   WRN GREAT LAKES. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY INTRODUCED BY DIFFERENCES IN THE
   MODELS...WILL NOT INTRODUCE A MARGINAL RISK AREA FOR THIS OUTLOOK.

   ..BROYLES.. 08/28/2016

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

        
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Page last modified: August 28, 2016
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