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Sep 22, 2017 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Fri Sep 22 07:08:28 UTC 2017 (Print Version | 20170922 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20170922 0730Z Day 3 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 220708

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0208 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

   Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered showers and storms are expected in the southern and
   central High Plains, although any severe threat should be sparse.

   ...Synopsis...
   A persistent western trough/eastern ridge pattern should remain in
   place across the CONUS, although some slow eastward progress of the
   trough axis will be noted as upper ridging builds into the Pacific
   Northwest from the northeastern Pacific.  Sustained, meridionally
   oriented mid/upper flow will remain across the High Plains and Upper
   Mississippi River Valley.

   At the surface, a weak low over western Kansas should remain nearly
   stationary.  A front northeast of this low (into western Wisconsin)
   should slowly migrate southward with time, while a weak lee trough
   remains located in portions of the Texas South Plains and eastern
   New Mexico.  Each of these surface boundaries will separate modified
   tropical air (in the Plains) from drier, cooler air to the north and
   west, while providing foci for an arc of storms that will extend
   from portions of the Texas South Plains into western/central Kansas
   and northward into southern Minnesota.

   Mid-level lapse rates should be relatively modest along the extent
   of this arc of convection, resulting in only weak to moderate
   destabilization (strongest in the Texas South Plains).  This should
   keep any threat of damaging wind gusts relatively sparse and below
   Marginal/5% thresholds.

   ..Cook.. 09/22/2017

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

        
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Page last modified: September 22, 2017
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