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May 24, 2016 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Tue May 24 07:31:01 UTC 2016 (Print Version | 20160524 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20160524 0730Z Day 3 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 240731

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0231 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

   VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN AND
   CNTRL PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT
   PLAINS AND LOWER TO MID MO VALLEY OUTSIDE OF THE ENHANCED RISK
   AREA...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT
   PLAINS...MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY AND SWRN GREAT LAKES OUTSIDE OF THE
   SLIGHT RISK AREA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...WIND DAMAGE AND A FEW
   TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
   PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
   LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY. OTHER MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH
   HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID TO
   UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

   ...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
   REGION ON THURSDAY AS SOUTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE
   ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS. AT THE SFC...A LOW IS FORECAST TO
   DEEPEN OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WITH A WELL-DEVELOPED DRYLINE
   EXTENDING SWD ACROSS THE ERN TX PANHANDLE INTO WEST TX. SFC
   DEWPOINTS TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 70S F
   WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING BY MID AFTERNOON. LARGE-SCALE
   ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL AIDE
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE LATE
   THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE WRN PORTION OF THE
   WARM SECTOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

   THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT...SHOWING A MOIST
   AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
   TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL JET APPROACHING THE DRYLINE FROM THE
   WEST LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GFS AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT
   00Z/FRI ACROSS WRN OK AND NW TX ARE IMPRESSIVE WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF
   2000 TO 3000 J/KG...0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KT AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES APPROACHING 8.0 C/KM. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
   SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. HAILSTONES OF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN
   DIAMETER MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER SUPERCELLS. SUPERCELLS MAY ALSO
   PRODUCE TORNADOES AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR INCREASES DURING THE LATE
   AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL ALSO BE
   POSSIBLE AS DOWNDRAFTS MATURE.

   ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS/MID MO VALLEY/SWRN GREAT LAKES...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
   REGION ON THURSDAY AS SOUTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE
   ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE MID MO
   VALLEY. AT THE SFC...A LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER THE CNTRL HIGH
   PLAINS AS A FRONT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY FROM NRN KS ENEWD INTO IA
   AND SRN WI. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY
   WITH SEVERAL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS MOVING ENEWD ACROSS THE REGION
   DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHER STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE
   HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN CO WITH THIS ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE CNTRL
   HIGH PLAINS.

   CONCERNING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL ALONG THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY
   AFTERNOON...A MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN
   THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S F FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS ENEWD INTO THE
   UPPER MS VALLEY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG
   INSTABILITY BY LATE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   FROM SALINA KS ENEWD TO DES MOINES IA SHOW 35 TO 40 KT OF 0-6 KM
   SHEAR WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 8.0 C/KM. THIS SHOULD
   BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
   INCREASES DURING THE EARLY EVENING...A TORNADO OR TWO MAY OCCUR WITH
   THE STRONGER SUPERCELLS. WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
   MORE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS. ALTHOUGH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
   MAY OCCUR AS FAR NORTHEAST AS ERN IA AND WI...THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE
   OVER THE NCNTRL STATES MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR CONCERNING SEVERE
   THREAT COVERAGE.

   ..BROYLES.. 05/24/2016

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

        
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