Jul 23, 2014 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Wed Jul 23 07:30:52 UTC 2014 (20140723 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20140723 0730Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
0730 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20140723 0730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 314,998 13,123,039 Omaha, NE...Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Lincoln, NE...Des Moines, IA...
   SPC AC 230730

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0230 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

   VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST
   TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL CYCLONE IN THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN SRN ROCKIES
   SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT E TO THE SRN SK/MB BORDER AREA BY EARLY SAT.
   THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY DAMPEN THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST RIDGE
   EMANATING FROM A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER NM. AT THE
   SURFACE...A PAIR OF FRONTAL INTRUSIONS SHOULD BE PRESENT OVER THE
   N-CNTRL CONUS. THE SRN ONE SHOULD BE LINKED TO A THERMAL LOW
   CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MO VALLEY FRI EVENING. THE NRN ONE SHOULD
   WEAKEN OVER THE RED RIVER OF THE N...WITH WEAK CYCLOGENESIS
   OCCURRING ALONG THE TRAILING PORTION OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS.

   ...LOWER MO/MID-MS VALLEYS...
   ROBUST LOW-LEVEL WAA SHOULD YIELD AN ELEVATED MCS CENTERED INVOF THE
   MS RIVER OVER ERN IA AT 12Z/FRI...ALONG THE FRINGE OF A STOUT PLAINS
   EML. THIS WAA-DRIVEN CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP E THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN
   THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY...PRONOUNCED CAPPING SHOULD EXIST OVER
   MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR...AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LARGE
   POTENTIAL BUOYANCY. WHETHER SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION CAN FORM
   APPEARS QUITE UNCERTAIN. THE BEST PROSPECT WOULD BE NEAR THE THERMAL
   LOW WHERE HOT SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL YIELD WEAKER INHIBITION AND
   SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE MAY EXIST TO INITIATE A COUPLE OF STORMS LATE
   DAY. IF THIS OCCURS WITHIN THE PERIPHERY OF MODERATE MID-LEVEL
   W/NWLYS...LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

   ...NRN MN...
   COOLER 700 MB TEMPERATURES RELATIVE TO AREAS FARTHER S SHOULD RESULT
   IN MINIMAL INHIBITION AT PEAK HEATING. A MODERATELY FAVORABLE
   COMBINATION OF SHEAR/INSTABILITY WOULD SUPPORT A RISK FOR SEVERE
   HAIL/WIND. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ANEMIC WITH CONVERGENCE
   ALONG THE FRONT EXPECTED TO WANE. SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT MAY REMAIN QUITE ISOLATED.

   ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
   ISOLATED HIGH-BASED CONVECTION SHOULD FORM ACROSS PARTS OF THE FRONT
   RANGE FRI AFTERNOON. DEEP INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AMIDST A
   TIGHT MID-LEVEL FLOW GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT LOCALIZED SEVERE WIND
   GUSTS. FRI EVENING/NIGHT...LOW-LEVEL E/SELYS SHOULD STRENGTHEN IN
   RESPONSE TO WEAK CYCLOGENESIS. A COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE AND WAA MAY
   RESULT IN ELEVATED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NEB/SD.
   WITHIN A BELT OF STRONG MID-LEVEL WLYS AND STEEP LAPSE
   RATES...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY OCCUR.

   ..GRAMS.. 07/23/2014

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z