Mar 27, 2015 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Fri Mar 27 07:28:38 UTC 2015 (20150327 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20150327 0730Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
0730 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Day 3 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20150327 0730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 3 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 270728

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0228 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

   VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
   EVENING/NIGHT FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS TO THE
   MID/DEEP SOUTH.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD PROGRESS E/SE AND BECOME CENTERED FROM
   ONTARIO ACROSS THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES BY EARLY MON. A SRN-STREAM
   UPPER JET SHOULD DEVELOP FROM THE GULF OF CA TO THE SRN GREAT PLAINS
   AHEAD OF A WEAK IMPULSE APPROACHING BAJA CA. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD
   FRONT SHOULD SLOW ITS SEWD PROGRESSION IN THE MID/DEEP SOUTH AND SRN
   GREAT PLAINS BY SUN NIGHT. 

   ...SRN GREAT PLAINS TO THE MID/DEEP SOUTH...
   MOISTURE RETURN WILL COMMENCE ON D2 OVER THE FAR WRN GULF AND BECOME
   INCREASINGLY PERVASIVE INTO D3. WITH THIS OCCURRING BENEATH A STOUT
   EML...MLCIN WILL LIKELY BE LARGE AND SHOULD PRECLUDE SURFACE-BASED
   TSTM DEVELOPMENT. ONE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE ALONG THE TRIPLE-POINT NEAR
   N-CNTRL TX...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT SEVERE
   PROBABILITIES THIS OUTLOOK. OTHERWISE...LOWER-LEVEL WAA ALONG/N OF
   THE FRONT IN A FAVORABLE LEFT-EXIT REGION OF THE SRN-STREAM UPPER
   JET SHOULD FOSTER ELEVATED CONVECTION SUN EVENING/NIGHT. STRONGER
   MID-LEVEL W/NWLYS SHOULD BE DISPLACED E/NE FROM WHERE WEAK BUOYANCY
   IS MOST LIKELY ON THE FRINGE OF THE EML. GIVEN THIS SETUP...A RISK
   FOR MARGINAL HAIL MAY EVENTUALLY BE WARRANTED.

   ..GRAMS.. 03/27/2015

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z