Sep 2, 2015 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Wed Sep 2 07:30:45 UTC 2015 (20150902 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20150902 0730Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
0730 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Day 3 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 40,930 553,596 Fargo, ND...Grand Forks, ND...Moorhead, MN...West Fargo, ND...West Fargo, MN...
Probabilistic Graphic
20150902 0730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 3 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 40,905 553,019 Fargo, ND...Grand Forks, ND...Moorhead, MN...West Fargo, ND...West Fargo, MN...
   SPC AC 020730

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0230 AM CDT WED SEP 02 2015

   VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN ND INTO NWRN MN...

   ...SUMMARY...
   WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY FROM
   THE SOUTHWEST STATES THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
   PLAINS. OTHER STORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND
   OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES.

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   A HIGH-AMPLITUDE SYNOPTIC TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE OVER THE
   PACIFIC NW AND NRN ROCKIES...WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS A DOMINANT
   FEATURE OVER THE EASTERN STATES. A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
   MOVE NEWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS DURING THE DAY WITH WEAKER IMPULSES
   EMBEDDED WITHIN NWLY FLOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE SERN STATES.
   AT THE SFC A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NWRN ND SWWD INTO THE NRN
   ROCKIES EARLY FRIDAY WITH A LEE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE NRN AND
   CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SLOWLY SEWD AND
   LIKELY EXTEND FROM NWRN MN SWWD THROUGH SD INTO WY AND NRN UT BY THE
   END OF THE PERIOD.  

   ...NRN PLAINS THROUGH NWRN MN AREA...

   A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY OVER A
   PORTION OF THE DAKOTAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE NEWD ADVANCING
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH. DOWNSTREAM...ACROSS ND INTO MN THE MOIST WARM
   SECTOR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE AS THE BOUNDARY
   LAYER WARMS DURING THE DAY. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
   WITHIN BELT OF ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A MODEST
   MID-LEVEL JET ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE WILL AUGMENT DEEP-LAYER WIND
   PROFILES WITH VERTICAL SHEAR BECOMING AT LEAST MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE
   OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. THE STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPING WITHIN
   THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL POSE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. WILL
   INTRODUCE A MARGINAL RISK THIS OUTLOOK...BUT AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT
   RISK MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER UPDATES.

   ..DIAL.. 09/02/2015

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z