Apr 23, 2014 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Wed Apr 23 06:35:48 UTC 2014 (20140423 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20140423 0730Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
0730 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20140423 0730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 230634

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0134 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

   VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED STRONG...OR PERHAPS ONE OR TWO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...MAY
   DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND ALONG A DRYLINE
   OVER NORTHWESTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA.

   ...SERN U.S...

   SUBTLE BUT POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST
   OF THE APPALACHIANS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  TIMING OF THIS FEATURE DOES
   NOT CORRELATE WELL WITH DIURNAL HEATING BUT IT MAY PROVE ADEQUATE IN
   GENERATING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL CAROLINAS.  IF TIMING
   OF SHORT WAVE IS TOO EARLY THEN STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING COULD
   STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ENOUGH FOR A FEW POST-SHORT WAVE TSTMS
   WITHIN VEERED BUT MODESTLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS.  FOR NOW WILL INTRODUCE
   5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBS TO ACCOUNT FOR POOR TIMING OF SHORT WAVE AND
   WEAKLY CONVERGENT LOW LEVELS.

   ...SRN PLAINS DRYLINE...

   LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHARPENING ACROSS THE SRN
   HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY AFTEROON AS TROUGHING ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE
   WRN U.S.  INTENSE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING IS FORECAST ACROSS WRN
   TX/OK DURING THE DAY WHERE SFC TEMPERATURES SHOULD SOAR THROUGH THE
   80S TO PERHAPS NEAR 90F AND THIS SHOULD BE ADEQUATE IN REMOVING
   EARLY-DAY INHIBITION.  ONE MAJOR CONCERN FOR ORGANIZED DEEP
   CONVECTION ALONG THE DRYLINE IS THE EXPECTED SHORT-WAVE RIDGING
   FORECAST ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.  IT/S NOT ENTIRELY
   CLEAR HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL ULTIMATELY EVOLVE...WITH THE PRIMARY
   THREAT DURING THE 22Z-03Z TIME FRAME.  NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN
   ALLOWING A FEW HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS TO EVOLVE WITHIN AIRMASS
   CHARACTERIZED BY 1500 J/KG SBCAPE BUT STRONGLY SHEARED...SFC-6KM
   VALUES APPROACHING 50KT.  LOW SEVERE PROBS HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED FOR
   ISOLATED SUPERCELLS THAT COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL/WIND.

   ..DARROW.. 04/23/2014

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z