Oct 31, 2015 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Sat Oct 31 07:23:16 UTC 2015 (20151031 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20151031 0730Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
0730 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Day 3 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20151031 0730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 3 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 310723

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0223 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015

   VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ON MONDAY...BUT LOCALLY STRONG WIND
   GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD DAMPEN AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE DEEP
   SOUTH TO OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A WEAKENING SURFACE CYCLONE
   SHOULD SIMILARLY FOLLOW A NEWD TRACK ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM GA
   TO THE CAROLINAS. IN THE WEST...A FULL-LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD
   DEVELOP BY EARLY TUE AS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE IMPULSE APPROACHES THE
   DESERT SW.

   ...SOUTHEAST...
   WHILE THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM SHOULD BE IN A DECAYING STATE...MODEL
   PROGS DIFFER SUBSTANTIALLY WITH THE RATE OF DECAY. SOME PROGS
   SUGGEST STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL SWLYS WILL REMAIN PREVALENT WITHIN THE
   WARM SECTOR DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. THIS MIGHT SUPPORT
   A RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE CYCLONE TRACK
   GIVEN AROUND 70 DEG F DEW POINTS. BUT WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT
   BECOMING PREDOMINATELY CONFINED N OF THE WARM SECTOR...CONVERGENCE
   LIKELY WEAKENING ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AND RELATIVELY WARM
   MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES...OVERALL SETUP APPEARS MARGINAL AT MOST. THE
   MARGINAL CONDITIONAL NATURE OF THE THREAT IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
   LARGE MODEL SPREAD RENDERS SEVERE PROBABILITIES OF LESS THAN 5
   PERCENT.

   ..GRAMS.. 10/31/2015

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z