May 22, 2017 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Mon May 22 07:15:16 UTC 2017 (20170522 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20170522 0730Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
0730 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Day 3 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 41,534 12,088,686 Jacksonville, FL...Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Orlando, FL...Cape Coral, FL...
MARGINAL 117,649 15,471,492 Miami, FL...Hialeah, FL...Montgomery, AL...Columbus, GA...Fort Lauderdale, FL...
Probabilistic Graphic
20170522 0730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 3 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 41,299 12,082,130 Jacksonville, FL...Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Orlando, FL...Cape Coral, FL...
5 % 118,662 15,609,902 Miami, FL...Hialeah, FL...Montgomery, AL...Columbus, GA...Fort Lauderdale, FL...
   SPC AC 220715

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0215 AM CDT Mon May 22 2017

   Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FLORIDA
   PENINSULA...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION
   OF THE GULF COASTAL STATES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible across Florida
   Wednesday and Wednesday night. A more marginal risk for severe
   storms will exist farther north from southern Georgia into the
   eastern Carolinas.

   ...Florida through southern Georgia and the eastern Carolinas...

   Models continue to indicate a significant shortwave trough will move
   into base of the synoptic upper low and continue through the Gulf
   coastal states Wednesday. A cold front will accompany this feature
   and approach the coastal Carolinas into northern FL by the end of
   this period. A moist and moderately unstable atmosphere will reside
   south of a quasi-stationary/warm front that will extend from the
   coastal Carolinas into the central Gulf Coast region. Current
   indications are that storms will be ongoing and fairly widespread
   early Wednesday, especially along and north of the stationary front
   from the Gulf Coast area into the coastal Carolinas. Some diabatic
   heating will likely occur south of this activity, especially across
   a portion of the FL peninsula, and storms may redevelop and
   intensify during the afternoon. Deep-layer winds will strengthen
   with the approach of the shortwave trough with 35-45 kt effective
   bulk shear supportive of organized storm structures. Damaging wind
   and perhaps a couple of tornadoes will be the primary threats.

   Overall severe risk is more uncertain farther north into GA and the
   eastern Carolinas where ongoing showers and storms may limit the
   potential for destabilization.

   ..Dial.. 05/22/2017

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z