Nov 1, 2014 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Sat Nov 1 06:32:03 UTC 2014 (20141101 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20141101 0730Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
0730 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 43,318 901,508 Lubbock, TX...Amarillo, TX...Plainview, TX...Liberal, KS...Pampa, TX...
Probabilistic Graphic
20141101 0730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 43,423 901,822 Lubbock, TX...Amarillo, TX...Plainview, TX...Liberal, KS...Pampa, TX...
   SPC AC 010632

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0132 AM CDT SAT NOV 01 2014

   VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TX/OK
   PANHANDLES AND VICINITY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS
   OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.  ONE OR TWO STORMS COULD BECOME
   BRIEFLY SEVERE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE
   TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES AND VICINITY.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AS THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE WRN ATLANTIC SHIFTS
   GRADUALLY AWAY FROM THE U.S. AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
   MONDAY...A POSITIVELY TILTED WRN U.S. TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
   CENTRAL U.S. WITH TIME.  AS IT DOES...AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS
   PROGGED TO CROSS THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY...AND
   THEN SHIFT INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY/LOWER MO VALLEY AND THE SRN
   PLAINS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

   ...SRN HIGH PLAINS VICINITY...
   SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN INTO TX/OK WILL LIKELY OCCUR AHEAD OF
   THE ADVANCING FRONT.  THUS...WHILE MINIMAL CAPE IS PROGGED FROM
   ROUGHLY KS NEWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY...DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW HUNDRED TO
   POSSIBLY AS MUCH AS 500 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE
   HIGH PLAINS FROM SWRN KS SWD INTO THE TX SOUTH PLAINS.  AS A
   RESULT...ISOLATED/AFTERNOON STORMS MAY INITIATE ACROSS PARTS OF THIS
   AREA -- PEAKING THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS
   BEFORE DIMINISHING THEREAFTER.  

   AS A 60 KT SWLY MID-LEVEL JET SPREADS ACROSS THIS AREA DURING THE
   AFTERNOON ATOP LOW-LEVEL SLYS...SHEAR WILL BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR
   ORGANIZED STORMS.  WHILE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL REMAINS
   A CONCERN WITH RESPECT TO STORM INTENSITY/LONGEVITY...A
   CONDITIONAL/ISOLATED/LOW-PROBABILITY RISK FOR HAIL AND/OR WIND GUSTS
   REACHING SEVERE LEVELS IS APPARENT.  THUS -- WILL INTRODUCE LOW
   PROBABILITY/MARGINAL THREAT AREA ACROSS THIS REGION.

   ..GOSS.. 11/01/2014

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z