Apr 21, 2014 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Mon Apr 21 06:43:47 UTC 2014 (20140421 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20140421 0730Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
0730 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20140421 0730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 170,637 3,820,094 Wichita, KS...Lincoln, NE...Lubbock, TX...Amarillo, TX...Midland, TX...
   SPC AC 210642

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0142 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

   VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
   PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
   AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS FROM NORTHWEST TEXAS TO NORTHERN
   NEBRASKA.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS
   ACTIVITY.

   ...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

   INTENSE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
   CNTRL ROCKIES INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
   DAY3 PERIOD AS 70KT 500MB SPEED MAX EVOLVES WITHIN THE SERN QUADRANT
   OF PROGRESSIVE TROUGH.  NAM IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SPEED
   MAX INTO THE TX PANHANDLE AT 24/00Z WITH THE GFS LAGGING STRONGER
   FLOW ACROSS NM.  REGARDLESS...STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALONG
   THE DRYLINE WILL CREATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUSTAINING
   ORGANIZED ROTATING DEEP CONVECTION.  LATEST THINKING IS
   THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE BY 21Z PRIMARILY BETWEEN I-20 AND I-90
   WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION AND MORE INTENSE ACTIVITY FOCUSED
   ALONG THE TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK BORDER...NWD ACROSS MUCH OF WRN KS.

   LEE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHARPEN ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE
   TO APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD.  THIS
   BOUNDARY WILL THEN DISLODGE DUE TO INCREASING FLOW ALOFT AND MOVE
   EWD INTO CNTRL NEB...SWD ACROSS WRN KS/WRN TX PANHANDLE AT PEAK
   HEATING WEDNESDAY.  FORECAST SHEAR PROFILES STRONGLY FAVOR SUPERCELL
   DEVELOPMENT BUT SFC DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY RISE INTO THE
   50S ALONG ERN PLUME OF VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES NEAR THE DRYLINE. 
   THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH-BASED CONVECTION THAT FAVORS LARGE HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WINDS.  SUPERCELLS THAT EVOLVE ALONG THE DRYLINE SHOULD
   SPREAD EWD DURING THE EVENING HOURS AIDED BY AN EJECTING SHORT-WAVE
   WITHIN THE BASE OF THE MEAN LONG-WAVE TROUGH.  AS A RESULT...SQUALL
   LINE MAY EMERGE OVER CNTRL KS/WRN OK BEFORE WEAKENING NEAR I-35
   LATE.

   ..DARROW.. 04/21/2014

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z