Sep 23, 2014 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Tue Sep 23 07:26:04 UTC 2014 (20140923 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20140923 0730Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
0730 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20140923 0730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 230726

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0226 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

   VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY ACROSS AREAS SUCH AS THE
   COASTAL SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...AND THE
   PACIFIC NORTHWEST. LITTLE OR NO RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS
   ANTICIPATED THURSDAY.

   ...DISCUSSION...
   AS AN AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN PERSISTS...THE MOST CONSEQUENTIAL
   FEATURES OF NOTE ON THURSDAY WILL BE AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ADVANCING
   UPPER TROUGH/POLAR JET OVER THE WEST COAST AND NORTHERN
   INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. ALTHOUGH BUOYANCY WILL BE WEAK...THIS SCENARIO
   MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE PACIFIC
   NORTHWEST/NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION.

   EAST OF THE ROCKIES...MULTIPLE SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOWS WILL
   OVERSPREAD AREAS SUCH AS THE PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST STATES ON THE
   PERIPHERY OF A MIDWEST-CENTERED UPPER RIDGE. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL
   BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/SOUTHERN ROCKIES AS
   WELL AS THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST CONUS. HOWEVER...NO SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED GIVEN A RELATIVE LACK OF
   BUOYANCY/VERTICAL SHEAR.

   ..GUYER.. 09/23/2014

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z