Jul 3, 2015 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Fri Jul 3 07:30:25 UTC 2015 (20150703 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20150703 0730Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
0730 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Day 3 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 89,009 987,734 Sioux Falls, SD...North Platte, NE...Norfolk, NE...Aberdeen, SD...Watertown, SD...
MARGINAL 143,230 6,953,089 Omaha, NE...Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Lincoln, NE...Fargo, ND...
Probabilistic Graphic
20150703 0730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 3 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 89,671 999,007 Sioux Falls, SD...North Platte, NE...Norfolk, NE...Aberdeen, SD...Watertown, SD...
5 % 142,430 7,089,186 Omaha, NE...Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Lincoln, NE...Fargo, ND...
   SPC AC 030730

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0230 AM CDT FRI JUL 03 2015

   VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHERN AND
   EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND ADJACENT WEST CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST
   MINNESOTA...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SURROUNDING AREAS OF THE
   NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS INTO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE WIND AND HAIL ARE EXPECTED
   SUNDAY ACROSS PARTS OF NEBRASKA...SOUTH DAKOTA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS
   OF SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GENERAL UPPER FLOW PATTERN APPEARS LIKELY FROM
   SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.  SUBTROPICAL RIDGING APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN
   SOMEWHAT SUPPRESSED...BUT THE STRONGER MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES ARE
   EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
   U.S...NORTHWARD.  WITHIN THIS REGIME A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH IS
   FORECAST TO CONTINUE PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
   CANADIAN PROVINCES.  ON ITS TRAILING SOUTHWESTERN FLANK...A SMALLER
   SCALE PERTURBATION MAY DIG ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER INTO THE
   NORTHERN PLAINS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
   LIKELY WILL ADVANCE SOUTHWARD TO THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
   ROCKIES...AND EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...INTO PORTIONS OF
   THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY BY 12Z MONDAY. 
   A CORRIDOR OF STRONG DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED
   TO PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SUNDAY
   AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING.  THIS INCLUDES THE RISK FOR SEVERE
   STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS.

   ...NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS INTO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
   DUE TO THE ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH...MODELS ARE SUGGESTIVE
   THAT PRE-FRONTAL MID/UPPER FLOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY NOT BECOME
   PARTICULARLY STRONG.  HOWEVER...STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEASTWARD ADVECTION OF VERY WARM ELEVATED
   MIXED LAYER AIR...COUPLED WITH PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER
   MOISTENING...ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG DESTABILIZATION
   WITH DAYTIME HEATING.  BY LATE AFTERNOON...MIXED LAYER CAPE OF
   2000-3000+ J/KG APPEARS LIKELY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND
   NORTHERN NEBRASKA...AND SOUTHERN/EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO ADJACENT
   AREAS OF MINNESOTA.  WITH THE ONSET OF MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND
   COOLING...INHIBITION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT
   THE INITIATION OF VIGOROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE
   NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
    THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE TO SEVERE WIND
   GUSTS AND HAIL IN STRONGER ACTIVITY AS IT SPREADS EASTWARD.

   STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT INTO
   WEST CENTRAL...PERHAPS NORTHERN...MINNESOTA...BY EARLY EVENING. 
   HOWEVER...STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MAY SUPPORT MORE
   PROMINENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN
   SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA...WHERE A
   CONSOLIDATING/STRENGTHENING SURFACE COLD POOL MAY EMERGE WITH AN
   EVOLVING CLUSTER OF STORMS.

   ..KERR.. 07/03/2015

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z