SPC AC 300723

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0223 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

   Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered thunderstorms are expected across much of the southern
   plains into the southeastern and eastern US. Severe storms capable
   of damaging wind and large hail will be possible across southwestern
   Texas.

   ...Discussion...
   The pattern on D3/Friday will include a trough moving across the
   Central Plains into the Midwest and a trailing cold front extending
   from New England southward across the mid-South and into the
   southern Plains. Early in the period, an MCS may be ongoing across
   southern Oklahoma/northern Texas. This may pose a continued risk of
   damaging wind from late D2/Thursday into D3/Friday as the air mass
   ahead of this is progged to be unstable and supportive of continued
   maintenance south and eastward.

   Across southwestern Texas, thunderstorm development is likely near
   the cold front and dryline. The mode here would favor supercells
   capable of large to very large hail. The cold front is expected to
   gradually shift southward, which may lead to a transition into a
   more mixed mode of supercells and multi cell clusters. Nonetheless,
   potential exists for large hail and damaging winds.

   Scattered thunderstorm development is likely across the frontal
   boundary across much of the Southeast to the East Coast. It remains
   unclear if there is a corridor of more favorable potential for
   strong to severe storms at this time. A broad plume of instability
   will extend along and south of the front across this region, but
   flow remains relatively weak. As such, no areas were included with
   this outlook but a stronger storm or two could not be ruled out.

   ..Thornton/Bentley.. 04/30/2025

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z