Oct 2, 2014 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Thu Oct 2 07:03:43 UTC 2014 (20141002 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20141002 0730Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
0730 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20141002 0730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 020703

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0203 AM CDT THU OCT 02 2014

   VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
   SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND COASTAL MIDDLE ATLANTIC.  SCATTERED
   THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

   ...ERN U.S...

   STRONG MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO
   SRN NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE PERIOD.  PROGRESSIVE...DEEP UPPER TROUGH
   SHOULD AID A NARROW BAND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS SRN NEW
   ENGLAND...WITH NEAR-SFC BASED TSTMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE MIDDLE
   ATLANTIC COAST.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE QUICKLY OFFSHORE EXCEPT FOR
   SRN NEW ENGLAND WHERE COLD FRONT MAY NOT CLEAR THE COAST UNTIL AFTER
   05/00Z.  

   SCT CONVECTION MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
   FL PENINSULA.  WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL
   NORTH OF THIS REGION...HIGH PW AIRMASS AND DIABATIC HEATING SHOULD
   BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG WEAKLY CONVERGENT
   COLD FRONT.

   ..DARROW.. 10/02/2014

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z