SPC AC 220715
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0215 AM CDT Mon May 22 2017
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FLORIDA
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION
OF THE GULF COASTAL STATES...
Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible across Florida
Wednesday and Wednesday night. A more marginal risk for severe
storms will exist farther north from southern Georgia into the
...Florida through southern Georgia and the eastern Carolinas...
Models continue to indicate a significant shortwave trough will move
into base of the synoptic upper low and continue through the Gulf
coastal states Wednesday. A cold front will accompany this feature
and approach the coastal Carolinas into northern FL by the end of
this period. A moist and moderately unstable atmosphere will reside
south of a quasi-stationary/warm front that will extend from the
coastal Carolinas into the central Gulf Coast region. Current
indications are that storms will be ongoing and fairly widespread
early Wednesday, especially along and north of the stationary front
from the Gulf Coast area into the coastal Carolinas. Some diabatic
heating will likely occur south of this activity, especially across
a portion of the FL peninsula, and storms may redevelop and
intensify during the afternoon. Deep-layer winds will strengthen
with the approach of the shortwave trough with 35-45 kt effective
bulk shear supportive of organized storm structures. Damaging wind
and perhaps a couple of tornadoes will be the primary threats.
Overall severe risk is more uncertain farther north into GA and the
eastern Carolinas where ongoing showers and storms may limit the
potential for destabilization.
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z