May 25, 2015 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Mon May 25 07:30:52 UTC 2015 (20150525 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20150525 0730Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
0730 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Day 3 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 55,385 415,044 Garden City, KS...Dodge City, KS...Liberal, KS...Hays, KS...Pampa, TX...
MARGINAL 922,459 78,497,462 Dallas, TX...Indianapolis, IN...Columbus, OH...Memphis, TN...Fort Worth, TX...
Probabilistic Graphic
20150525 0730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 3 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 54,931 411,853 Garden City, KS...Dodge City, KS...Liberal, KS...Hays, KS...Pampa, TX...
5 % 923,598 78,841,870 Dallas, TX...Indianapolis, IN...Columbus, OH...Memphis, TN...Fort Worth, TX...
   SPC AC 250730

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0230 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

   VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
   PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TO THE
   NORTHEAST STATES/NEW ENGLAND...

   ...SUMMARY...
   STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY ACROSS
   PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS AND NORTHEAST UNITED STATES ON WEDNESDAY.

   ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
   WHILE SHORTWAVE RIDGING MAY INITIALLY BE PREVALENT...THE HIGH PLAINS
   WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST SOMEWHAT INFLUENCED LATE IN THE DAY BY WEAK
   HEIGHT FALLS VIA AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES.
   UPSLOPE VIA EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES AND
   NEAR-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AN AFTERNOON/EVENING
   INCREASE IN STRONGER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO A MOIST/UNSTABLE
   ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. STORMS SEEM LIKELY TO
   PERSIST GENERALLY EASTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH AID OF A NOCTURNALLY
   STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET. LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY SOME TORNADO
   RISK WOULD APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WEDNESDAY
   AFTERNOON/EVENING...ALTHOUGH DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS WELL
   PARTICULARLY IF UPSCALE QUASI-LINEAR GROWTH OCCURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

   ...NEW ENGLAND/NORTHEAST STATES...
   AT LEAST ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE
   WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/PASSING SPEED MAX
   GLANCE THE REGION COINCIDENT WITH A RELATIVELY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR
   MASS.

   ..GUYER.. 05/25/2015

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z