Sep 3, 2014 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Wed Sep 3 07:03:21 UTC 2014 (20140903 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20140903 0730Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
0730 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20140903 0730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 107,543 23,480,937 Detroit, MI...Indianapolis, IN...Cleveland, OH...St. Louis, MO...Toledo, OH...
   SPC AC 030703

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0203 AM CDT WED SEP 03 2014

   VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW STRONG...ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
   ALONG AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM LOWER MICHIGAN INTO
   THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS.

   ...LOWER GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST...

   SFC PRESSURES SHOULD BUILD ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS DURING THE
   DAY3 PERIOD IN THE WAKE OF EJECTING ONTARIO SHORT-WAVE TROUGH.  AS A
   RESULT...SFC FRONT SHOULD ADVANCE TO A POSITION FROM LOWER MI...SWWD
   ACROSS CNTRL IL INTO SERN KS BY 18Z.  LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS NOT
   EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY SIGNIFICANT ALONG THIS TRAILING COLD
   FRONT AND MODEST MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD EXTEND ACROSS THE FRONT AS
   FAR SOUTH AS NRN INDIANA/NRN OH WHERE 30KT MAY BE NOTED AT 500MB BY
   PEAK HEATING.  GIVEN THE WARM 700MB TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WARM
   SECTOR IT APPEARS SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL BE NEEDED
   TO INITIATE CONVECTION ALONG WIND SHIFT.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
   CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES MAY BE BREACHED BY MID AFTERNOON ACROSS
   LOWER MI/NRN INDIANA WHEN READINGS RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S.  WHILE
   DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG...SIGNIFICANT
   INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW ROBUST UPDRAFTS TO EVOLVE THAT MAY PRODUCE
   GUSTY WINDS AND ISOLATED HAIL.  ISOLATED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP SWWD
   ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS WHERE A FEW STORMS
   COULD ALSO PRODUCE HAIL BY LATE AFTERNOON.

   ..DARROW.. 09/03/2014

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z