Oct 31, 2014 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Fri Oct 31 07:29:04 UTC 2014 (20141031 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20141031 0730Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
0730 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20141031 0730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 310729

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0229 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

   VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE FOUR CORNERS STATES DURING
   THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AND MAY SPREAD AS FAR EAST AS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
   SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AS THE ERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS OFF THE MIDDLE/SRN ATLANTIC
   COAST AND ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...THE MORE SLOWLY ADVANCING WRN TROUGH
   WILL REMAIN OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE COUNTRY.  IN BETWEEN...A
   SLOW-MOVING RIDGE WILL REMAIN ALIGNED ROUGHLY ALONG THE MS VALLEY.

   WITH A COOL/CONTINENTAL SURFACE AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE ERN HALF
   OF THE COUNTRY AND HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING ACROSS THE NWRN STATES IN
   THE WAKE OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT...DEEP/MOIST CONVECTION SHOULD
   BE LARGELY CONFINED TO THE FOUR CORNERS STATES DURING THE DAY IN
   ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.  LATER...AS A NOCTURNAL
   LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES ACROSS THE PLAINS...SOME POTENTIAL FOR
   ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY SPREAD AS FAR E AS THE KS/NEB VICINITY
   THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

   ..GOSS.. 10/31/2014

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z