Oct 25, 2014 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Sat Oct 25 07:08:47 UTC 2014 (20141025 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20141025 0730Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
0730 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20141025 0730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 250708

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0208 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

   VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS
   THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY MORNING AND FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS
   TO THE MIDWEST ON MONDAY NIGHT.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NRN
   GREAT PLAINS SHOULD UNDERGO AT LEAST MINOR AMPLIFICATION LATE IN THE
   PERIOD OVER THE N-CNTRL CONUS AS IT PHASES WITH WEAKER SRN-STREAM
   DISTURBANCES. AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SHOULD STRETCH FROM THE CNTRL
   GREAT LAKES TO THE SRN GREAT PLAINS BY EARLY TUE. GUIDANCE DEPICTS
   ABOVE-AVERAGE SPREAD IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT.

   ...GREAT LAKES TO SRN GREAT PLAINS...
   DESPITE LOWER-THAN-AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE POSITIONING/AMPLITUDE
   OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES...OVERALL SETUP DOES NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY
   CONDUCIVE TO SEVERE STORMS. MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
   BE MODEST AND CONSIST OF A MODIFIED CP AIR MASS WITH MT AIR
   CURRENTLY RELEGATED TO THE CARIBBEAN. ORIENTATION OF THE TROUGH AND
   FRONT WILL FAVOR PREDOMINATELY SWLY FLOW WITH AN EML PLUME OVER THE
   WARM SECTOR...LIKELY MAINTAINING SUBSTANTIAL INHIBITION FOR
   SURFACE-BASED STORMS. 

   ELEVATED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS SHOULD BE ONGOING WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL
   WAA REGIME ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON MON MORNING. MORE WIDESPREAD
   CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS IS ANTICIPATED MON NIGHT AS THE
   TROUGH AMPLIFIES AND LARGER HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD THE FRONT. MUCH
   OF THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL PROBABLY BE ROOTED BY ELEVATED
   PARCELS NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE. SMALL HAIL SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WITH
   INITIAL UPDRAFTS GIVEN THE REMNANT EML...BUT EXPECTED WEAK BUOYANCY
   WILL PRECLUDE PROBABILITIES FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK THIS OUTLOOK.

   ..GRAMS.. 10/25/2014

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z