Jun 29, 2016 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Wed Jun 29 07:12:21 UTC 2016 (20160629 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20160629 0730Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
0730 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Day 3 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 124,249 5,854,854 Tulsa, OK...Wichita, KS...Albany, NY...Broken Arrow, OK...Schenectady, NY...
Probabilistic Graphic
20160629 0730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 3 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 124,285 5,852,318 Tulsa, OK...Wichita, KS...Albany, NY...Broken Arrow, OK...Schenectady, NY...
   SPC AC 290712

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0212 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

   VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN AND
   CNTRL PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NY AND WRN
   NEW ENGLAND...

   ...SUMMARY...
   MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS
   WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE SOUTHERN AND
   CENTRAL PLAINS. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE
   WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO DEVELOP IN EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
   ENGLAND.

   ...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...
   A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS
   INTO THE MID MO VALLEY ON FRIDAY. AT THE SFC...A QUASI-STATIONARY
   FRONT IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE DIFFUSE ON FRIDAY AS A VERY MOIST
   AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS.
   SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S F ACROSS NRN OK AND SRN KS SHOULD
   RESULT IN A POCKET OF MODERATE INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON. THIS
   COMBINED WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE ACROSS PARTS OF THE MOIST SECTOR SHOULD RESULT IN
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THIS ENVIRONMENT MAY BE ENOUGH
   FOR A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.

   ...ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
   LAKES FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES EWD ACROSS THE REGION. SFC
   DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 60S F WHICH
   SHOULD RESULT IN AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES BY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A WIND DAMAGE THREAT
   DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE
   FRONT.

   ..BROYLES.. 06/29/2016

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z