Apr 19, 2015 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Sun Apr 19 07:25:55 UTC 2015 (20150419 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20150419 0730Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
0730 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Day 3 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 40,381 515,869 Abilene, TX...Big Spring, TX...Plainview, TX...Altus, OK...Pampa, TX...
MARGINAL 104,021 2,743,850 Lubbock, TX...Amarillo, TX...Wichita Falls, TX...Midland, TX...Lawton, OK...
Probabilistic Graphic
20150419 0730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 3 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 40,069 466,791 Abilene, TX...Big Spring, TX...Plainview, TX...Altus, OK...Sweetwater, TX...
5 % 104,460 2,742,467 Lubbock, TX...Amarillo, TX...Wichita Falls, TX...Midland, TX...Lawton, OK...
   SPC AC 190725

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0225 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

   VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN HIGH
   PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
   PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE LATE TUESDAY
   AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHERE LARGE HAIL AND WIND
   DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO FORM OVER PARTS OF
   THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES...SOUTHERN GREAT
   LAKES...SOUTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA AND IN THE SIERRA NEVADA.

   ...SRN PLAINS...
   A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE
   NATION ON TUESDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE
   SRN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN. AT THE SFC...A LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
   EWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WITH A DRYLINE SETTING UP ACROSS WEST
   TX. SLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE SHOULD RESULT IN
   MOISTURE ADVECTION THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.  MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY ON
   HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL RETURN NWD. THE NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS SUGGEST
   THAT SFC DEWPOINTS WILL REACH THE LOWER 60S F IN THE TX HILL COUNTRY
   AND WEST TX WITH MID TO UPPER 50S F POSSIBLY IN THE LOW ROLLING
   PLAINS AND ON THE CAPROCK. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS DEVELOP
   CONVECTION ALONG AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY FROM THE ERN TX PANHANDLE
   SEWD INTO NW TX LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT
   00Z/WEDNESDAY SHOW POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE WITH
   ABOUT 40 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OWING TO DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BELOW 700
   MB AND 50 KT OF FLOW ALOFT. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES
   WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WOULD
   ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT IN AGREEMENT
   CONCERNING CONVECTIVE INITIATION ON THE CAPROCK AND OVER THE LOW
   ROLLING PLAINS...THE EXTENDED FORECAST RANGE INTRODUCES MUCH
   UNCERTAINTY. THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE COULD HELP TO INHIBIT STORM
   DEVELOPMENT KEEPING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ISOLATED ACROSS THE REGION.
   ATTM...WILL INTRODUCE A SMALL SLIGHT RISK AREA ACROSS PARTS OF NW
   TX...THE SE TX PANHANDLE AND SW OK WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
   STORMS APPEARS THE GREATEST.

   ..BROYLES.. 04/19/2015

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z