May 31, 2016 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Tue May 31 07:27:27 UTC 2016 (20160531 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20160531 0730Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
0730 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Day 3 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 31,024 2,073,946 Corpus Christi, TX...Laredo, TX...Brownsville, TX...Harlingen, TX...Mission, TX...
Probabilistic Graphic
20160531 0730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 3 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 31,054 2,073,981 Corpus Christi, TX...Laredo, TX...Brownsville, TX...Harlingen, TX...Mission, TX...
   SPC AC 310727

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0227 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

   VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF S TX...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR OVER SOUTH
   TEXAS THURSDAY.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   THE MAIN BELT OF WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER SRN CANADA AND THE
   NRN U.S. THIS PERIOD...WITH A TROUGH INITIALLY PROGGED TO EXTEND
   ACROSS WRN ONTARIO AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES EXPECTED TO
   PROGRESS ENEWD ACROSS ONTARIO AND INTO QUEBEC THROUGH THE PERIOD. 
   MEANWHILE FARTHER S...A TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SHIFTING
   ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...WITH RIDGING TO PREVAIL OVER BOTH THE SWRN
   AND ERN U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD.

   AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COOL FRONT SHIFTING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
   LAKES/OH VALLEY WILL FOCUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. 
   FARTHER W...LEE TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS IS
   EXPECTED AS WLYS ALOFT PERSIST ACROSS THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION.

   ...S TX...
   AS THE WEAK UPPER LOW/TROUGH SHIFTS SLOWLY EWD ACROSS TX DURING THE
   DAY...WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY ACROSS TX /OWING
   TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD/ONGOING PRECIPITATION/ SUGGESTS
   LITTLE IF ANY SEVERE THREAT ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE.  ONE EXCEPTION
   MAY BE ACROSS DEEP S TX...WHERE SOMEWHAT STRONGER WSWLY FLOW ALOFT
   MAY LINGER ON THE SERN FRINGE OF THE UPPER SYSTEM.  WITH LOW-LEVEL
   SELYS BENEATH THE WSWLYS ALOFT...SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED/WEAK
   SUPERCELL STORMS MAY SUPPORT LOW-END RISK FOR A SEVERE STORM OR TWO
   DURING THE AFTERNOON...THUS WARRANTING INCLUSION OF LOW /5%/ SEVERE
   RISK IN THIS REGION.

   ...LOWER GREAT LAKES/UPPER OH VALLEY AREA...
   SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ALONG THE DIFFUSE COLD
   FRONT CROSSING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY AREA DURING THE DAY
   THURSDAY.  HOWEVER...VERY WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
   PORTION OF THE REGION...AND VERY WEAK FLOW ALOFT FARTHER SW INTO THE
   OH VALLEY...SUGGEST THAT SEVERE RISK SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL AT BEST.

   ...MID MO VALLEY VICINITY...
   MODELS SUGGEST DEVELOPMENT OF A VERY SUBTLE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE
   NEB/SD BORDER AREA DURING THE DAY...AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
   SHIFTS EWD AND LOW-LEVEL SLY FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS KS/NEB. 
   HOWEVER...PRIND THAT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIMITED TO
   AFTER-DARK ELEVATED STORMS IN RESPONSE TO AN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
   JET.  LIMITED INSTABILITY IN THE ELEVATED LAYER N OF THE WARM FRONT
   SUGGESTS LITTLE IF ANY SEVERE RISK.

   ..GOSS.. 05/31/2016

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z