Jun 24, 2017 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Sat Jun 24 05:42:55 UTC 2017 (20170624 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20170624 0730Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
0730 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Day 3 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 46,545 361,626 Bend, OR...Lewiston, ID...Walla Walla, WA...Altamont, OR...Klamath Falls, OR...
Probabilistic Graphic
20170624 0730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 3 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 45,257 325,576 Lewiston, ID...Walla Walla, WA...Altamont, OR...Klamath Falls, OR...Pendleton, OR...
   SPC AC 240542

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1242 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

   Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
   OREGON INTO NORTHWEST IDAHO...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated hail or wind is possible Monday afternoon mainly over
   Oregon, and a few strong thunderstorms cannot be ruled out Monday
   afternoon across parts of the central and southern High Plains.

   ...Synopsis...
   A shortwave trough across the Northwest will flatten the northern
   Rockies upper ridge and shunt it eastward into the Plains, with a
   cold front moving across Oregon. To the east, a larger upper trough
   will gradually shift eastward, with rising heights across the
   Plains. At the surface, high pressure will remain over much of the
   Plains into the east, resulting in relatively stable conditions. The
   exception will be across the central and southern High Plains, where
   a modestly unstable air mass will develop with heating and 50s to
   60s dewpoints slowly spreading northwest. Elsewhere, weak
   instability will develop over Oregon and Idaho, in association with
   the weak upper wave, and may support scattered strong thunderstorms.

   ...Oregon into Idaho...
   Steep lapses rates will develop with heating, and under the
   influence of cooling aloft. Although moisture will be limited,
   sufficient instability for thunderstorms will exist, with
   development along a weak front. Cool profiles aloft will favor
   marginal hail, with areas of strong outflow winds also likely.

   ...Central and southern High Plains...
   Areas of rain and storms may be ongoing across parts of the southern
   Plains Monday morning, which may have an effect on destabilization
   later in the day. This activity is unlikely to be severe as shear
   will be very weak. Redevelopment is expected later in the day across
   south central CO into NM, but shear looks to be weaker than on
   previous days as the upper trough shifts east. During the evening, a
   southerly low-level jet will increase, and this may support isolated
   storms from eastern CO into western KS where marginal hail cannot be
   ruled out. However, predictability appears too low for a Marginal
   Risk at this time.

   ..Jewell.. 06/24/2017

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z