May 1, 2016 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Sun May 1 07:12:02 UTC 2016 (20160501 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20160501 0730Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
0730 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Day 3 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 71,265 9,238,947 Virginia Beach, VA...Raleigh, NC...Norfolk, VA...Chesapeake, VA...Newport News, VA...
Probabilistic Graphic
20160501 0730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 3 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 71,213 9,218,336 Virginia Beach, VA...Raleigh, NC...Norfolk, VA...Chesapeake, VA...Newport News, VA...
   SPC AC 010712

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0212 AM CDT SUN MAY 01 2016

   VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S....

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW STRONG...ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
   AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US TUESDAY.  GUSTY
   WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL ARE THE MAIN THREATS.

   ...SOUTHEASTERN U.S...

   ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MORE AGGRESSIVE AND CONSISTENT MODEL WITH
   SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AS IT DIGS SEWD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE
   SERN U.S. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DAY3.  MODEST 500MB FLOW WILL
   OVERSPREAD WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE SERN U.S. SUCH THAT ANY STORMS
   THAT FORM AHEAD OF PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY
   TO ORGANIZE INTO MULTI-CELL ROBUST CONVECTION.  WHILE FORECAST LAPSE
   RATES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE THAT STEEP...PW VALUES ON THE ORDER OF
   1.5 IN AND SBCAPE NEAR 1500 J/KG...SUGGEST HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING
   WINDS COULD ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST CONVECTION.  SCT THUNDERSTORMS
   MAY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ALONG THE COLD FRONT BUT
   MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP UNTIL EARLY
   AFTERNOON WHEN BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING SHOULD AID BUOYANCY.

   ..DARROW.. 05/01/2016

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z