Jul 28, 2014 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Mon Jul 28 06:00:27 UTC 2014 (20140728 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20140728 0730Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
0730 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20140728 0730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 280600

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0100 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

   VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AS WELL AS
   ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN STATES...BUT SEVERE WEATHER
   IS UNLIKELY.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN STATIONARY ACROSS THE ERN CONUS
   WITH UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
   MOVE SWD ACROSS THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS...BECOMING STATIONARY
   NEAR THE RED RIVER. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIST ACROSS WRN TX WITH
   AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD FROM WRN KS INTO
   OK. SCATTERED DAYTIME STORMS WILL OCCUR BENEATH THE COOL PROFILES
   ALOFT FROM THE OH VALLEY NEWD INTO NY WITH SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE.

   ...SRN PLAINS...
   CLUSTERS OF STORMS ARE FORECAST TO EXIST ACROSS WRN KS INTO
   OK...AIDED BY ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITH WARM AND MOIST AIR MOVING NWD
   OUT OF TX. INSTABILITY WILL GENERALLY BE WEAK BUT STRONG HEATING S
   OF THE FRONT COULD RESULT IN GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AS THE STORMS
   DEVELOP SEWD TOWARD THE ARKLATEX.

   ..JEWELL.. 07/28/2014

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z