Sep 28, 2016 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Wed Sep 28 07:27:15 UTC 2016 (20160928 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20160928 0730Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
0730 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Day 3 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20160928 0730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 3 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 280727

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0227 AM CDT WED SEP 28 2016

   VALID 301200Z - 011200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   THE DAY 2 LARGE CLOSED LOW/TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOME ON
   FRIDAY...WHILE ITS CENTER SHIFTS NORTH AND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
   THIS SYSTEM REACHES THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY 01/12Z.  WEAK
   HEIGHT FALLS ARE FORECAST FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE GREAT PLAINS
   ATTENDANT TO TRANSIENT MIDLEVEL IMPULSES...AND AS THE LEADING EXTENT
   OF A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH MOVES INLAND IN THE WEST.

   ...EASTERN NC/VA AND OH...
   SIMILAR TO DAY 2...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO
   SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS.  HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTIES PERTAINING TO THE
   DISTRIBUTION OF INSTABILITY...PRIMARILY DUE TO LINGERING DAY 1/DAY 2
   CLOUDINESS...PRECLUDE THE INTRODUCTION OF SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

   ...FOUR CORNERS STATES TO NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ND...
   MODELS SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE FOUR CORNERS
   STATES INTO WY AND WESTERN MT...AS WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AND/OR SOME
   FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO WEAK MIDLEVEL IMPULSES TRACK ACROSS
   THESE AREAS.  A SEPARATE AREA OF ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
   COULD SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF ND.  THIS LATTER ACTIVITY
   WILL BE ATTENDANT TO A WEAKENING LOW-AMPLITUDE MIDLEVEL TROUGH. 
   OVERALL WEAK INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE A SEVERE-WEATHER
   THREAT.

   ..PETERS.. 09/28/2016

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z