Jul 30, 2016 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Sat Jul 30 05:24:20 UTC 2016 (20160730 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20160730 0730Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
0730 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Day 3 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 82,128 782,603 Fargo, ND...Bismarck, ND...Grand Forks, ND...Minot, ND...Moorhead, MN...
Probabilistic Graphic
20160730 0730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 3 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 82,786 778,950 Fargo, ND...Bismarck, ND...Grand Forks, ND...Minot, ND...Moorhead, MN...
   SPC AC 300524

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1224 AM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016

   VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   STRONG STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE MONDAY
   AFTERNOON.  GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL COULD BE NOTED WITH THE STRONGEST
   STORMS.

   ...NORTHERN PLAINS...

   UPPER LOW THAT EJECTS INTO SK SUNDAY WILL STALL DURING THE DAY3
   PERIOD BEFORE EJECTING INTO MB LATER TUESDAY...IN RESPONSE TO
   PROGRESSIVE UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER BC/WA/ORE.  WHILE THE LEAD SYSTEM
   WILL KEEP THE RIDGE SUPPRESSED ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...LARGE-SCALE
   ASCENT SHOULD REMAIN FOCUSED NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.  FOR
   THIS REASON IT APPEARS STRONG BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING WILL BE THE
   PRIMARY INSTIGATOR FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY
   THAT SHOULD ORIENT ITSELF FROM SRN MB...SWWD TO NEAR THE BLACK HILLS
   OF SD.  LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SFC PARCELS SHOULD REACH
   THEIR CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES AS READINGS RISE THROUGH THE 90S OVER
   WRN SD...WITH MID-UPPER 80S LIKELY BEING SUFFICIENT OVER NRN ND. 
   ANY STORMS THAT FORM ALONG THE WIND SHIFT WILL BE ADEQUATELY SHEARED
   FOR DEEP ROTATION AS SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF
   40KT.  HAIL/WIND MAY ACCOMPANY STRONGEST SUPERCELLS THAT EVOLVE
   DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.  MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS ALLOWS THIS
   ACTIVITY TO SPREAD INTO NWRN MN DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

   ..DARROW.. 07/30/2016

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z