SPC AC 070829
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0229 AM CST SAT MAR 07 2009
   
   VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
   PLAINS...
   
   ...SOUTHERN PLAINS...
   BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
   BASIN/ROCKIES ON MONDAY...WITH A STRONG/PERTURBED SUBTROPICAL JET
   EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MEXICO NORTHEASTWARD TO THE MIDWEST. MASS
   FIELDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO RESPOND TO THE
   APPROACHING WESTERN STATES TROUGH...WITH THE LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST
   SECTOR LIKELY TO STEADILY RETURN NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   NORTH TX/OK AND EVENTUALLY KS AS LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS ACROSS
   THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
   
   WHILE LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIMITED ACROSS THE
   EXPANDING WARM SECTOR ACROSS TX/OK/KS DURING THE DAY...THE PERTURBED
   SUBTROPICAL STREAM/POTENTIAL SPEED MAX AND POCKETS OF STRONGER
   HEATING BENEATH A CIRRUS CANOPY SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF OK/NORTH TX.
   ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY NOT BE PARTICULARLY
   STEEP...AROUND 60/LOWER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS WOULD SUPPORT MLCAPE
   VALUES TO AROUND 1000 J/KG PROVIDED SUFFICIENT HEATING. COMBINED
   WITH STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...WELL-ORGANIZED SURFACE BASED TSTMS
   INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WOULD SEEM POSSIBLE.
   
   IN ALL...A RATHER COMPLEX SCENARIO LEADS TO HEIGHTENED
   UNCERTAINTY/REDUCED CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DETAILS DIURNALLY
   ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...BUT AT LEAST A CONDITIONAL CATEGORICAL
   SLIGHT RISK APPEARS WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.
   
   ...LOWER/MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT...
   AS THE UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE
   MONDAY NIGHT...CONTINUED LEE CYCLOGENESIS AND AN INCREASING
   SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A STEADY ELEVATED
   MOISTURE INFLUX NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER/MIDDLE MISSOURI
   VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. IT WOULD SEEM LIKELY THAT AT LEAST AN ISOLATED
   HAIL THREAT WILL EXIST ACROSS THE REGION NOCTURNALLY.
   
   ..GUYER.. 03/07/2009
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z