SPC AC 100820
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0220 AM CST Sat Dec 10 2016
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
Showers and embedded thunderstorms will be possible across the
central Gulf Coast states and vicinity on Monday.
Broad but relatively low-amplitude flow field aloft will continue
across the Continental U.S. on Monday, as short-wave troughing
shifts across the Midwest and eventually the Northeast. As this
occurs, a southeastward-moving cold front should cross the
Appalachians during the afternoon, and then off the Atlantic and
Gulf coasts overnight. In the wake of this front, a cold
continental airmass will spread across a large portion of the
...CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND VICINITY...
While differences in the southward and eastward speed of the surface
cold frontal advance are evident between the NAM and GFS, it appears
that showers and a few thunderstorms will occur near the advancing
front across the central Gulf Coast states. Weak lapse rates -- and
thus modest CAPE -- should hinder storm intensity, despite ample
shear for robust updrafts. The anticipated meager instability and
uncertainty with respect to model differences preclude highlighting
any severe risk areas.
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