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Feb 28, 2015 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Sat Feb 28 08:24:38 UTC 2015 (Print Version | 20150228 0830Z Day 3 shapefile | 20150228 0830Z Day 3 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 280824

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0224 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

   VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
   MONDAY ACROSS THE ARK-LA-TEX AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH ARKANSAS
   TO SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND FAR WESTERN TENNESSEE.  ISOLATED TO WIDELY
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY ACROSS A
   SMALL PART OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER
   VALLEY AND WESTERN ARIZONA MONDAY AFTERNOON.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A STRONG MID-UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED FROM THE GULF OF
   MEXICO INTO THE WRN CARIBBEAN.  HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ACROSS
   MUCH OF THE ERN HALF OF THE U.S. IN THE WAKE OF A TROUGH MOVING
   THROUGH THE NERN STATES AND DEPARTING THE NRN ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY
   AFTERNOON.  MEANWHILE...A BLOCKING RIDGE WILL REMAIN LOCATED WEST OF
   THE PACIFIC COAST.  A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS ALASKA
   DURING DAY 1 IS EXPECTED TO MOVE S/SEWD IN PIECEMEAL FASHION THROUGH
   WRN CANADA ON SUNDAY.  THE MOST PROMINENT PORTION OF THIS TROUGH
   SHOULD EMERGE EAST OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES ON MONDAY...MOVING
   THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA TOWARD THE NRN ROCKIES/PLAINS.  A WEAKER
   PORTION OF THIS AK SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY SWD FROM WRN WA/ORE
   THROUGH NRN CA AND REACH ALONG AND OFF THE SRN CA COAST BY 12Z
   TUESDAY WITH A CLOSED CIRCULATION CENTER.  THIS EVOLUTION WILL
   RESULT IN DISLODGING THE DAY 2 SRN CA TROUGH NEWD THROUGH THE SWRN
   STATES TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. 

   ...ERN OK/ARKLATEX TO SRN MO/WRN TN...
   SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN FROM CENTRAL AND
   EASTERN TX THROUGH ERN OK INTO THE OZARKS.  THIS WILL RESULT IN
   SUBSTANTIAL LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC MOISTENING AND WARM-AIR ADVECTION
   WITH THESE FACTORS BEING GREATER ABOVE THE SURFACE.  A LARGE SURFACE
   HIGH-PRESSURE AREA WILL SHIFT EWD FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED
   STATES...THOUGH SURFACE TRAJECTORIES ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL STATES
   SHOULD NOT BECOME SLY UNTIL LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS FACTOR
   WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR PARCELS TO BECOME SURFACE-BASED WITH
   STRONGER DESTABILIZATION /MUCAPE OF 100-200 J PER KG/ TO OCCUR ABOVE
   THE SURFACE.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MOST PARCELS SHOULD BE
   ROOTED AROUND 850 MB WITH THE TSTM POTENTIAL TENDING TO SHIFT FROM
   SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THIS GENERAL TSTM AREA DURING THE FORECAST
   PERIOD.

   ...PART OF SRN CA AND LOWER CO VALLEY INTO WRN AZ...
   A LINGERING POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY ISOLATED TSTMS WILL EXIST ACROSS
   PRIMARILY THE COASTAL AREAS OF FAR SRN CA MONDAY MORNING INTO THE
   EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS NEWD.  THE COLD
   MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES AND FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THE TROUGH
   MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY AND AZ MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL
   SUPPORT DIURNALLY DRIVEN TSTMS...AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN.

   ..PETERS.. 02/28/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z

        
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