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Feb 22, 2018 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Thu Feb 22 08:19:22 UTC 2018 (Print Version | 20180222 0830Z Day 3 shapefile | 20180222 0830Z Day 3 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 220819

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0219 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

   Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM A PORTION OF
   EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI...TENNESSEE AND OHIO
   VALLEYS...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM A PORTION
   OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST
   STATES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Strong to severe storms will be possible Saturday from a portion of
   northeast Texas through the lower Mississippi, Tennessee and Ohio
   Valleys.

   ...Northeast TX into the lower Mississippi Tennessee and Ohio
   Valleys...

   A significant shortwave trough will eject northeast through the
   central Plains and middle to upper MS Valley region Saturday and
   Saturday night while taking on a negative tilt. In response to
   forcing accompanying this feature, a surface low initially over the
   southern Plains will deepen as it develops northeast through the
   middle MS Valley, eventually reaching the Great Lakes toward the end
   of the period. Warm front extending east from the surface low will
   move northward, reaching the OH Valley Saturday night. A cold front
   initially across west TX will advance through the Southern Plains
   and middle to lower MS Valley during the day reaching the OH and TN
   Valleys Saturday night. A strengthening low-level jet resulting from
   the deepening cyclone will transport richer gulf moisture northward
   with low 60s F dewpoints as far as the OH Valley and mid to upper
   60s from east TX to the lower MS Valley. However, instability will
   probably remain marginal due to widespread clouds and modest lapse
   rates with MLCAPE likely to remain below 1000 J/kg over most of the
   warm sector. 

   A forced line of potentially strong to severe storms should evolve
   in vicinity of cold front initially over north central or northeast
   TX into southeast OK during the day. Activity will subsequently move
   into the lower MS, TN and OH Valley regions as the low-level jet
   strengthens to 60+ kt and shifts northeast through moistening warm
   sector. Vertical shear and overall character of wind profiles will
   be more than adequate for organized severe storms, with potential
   for LEWP, bowing segments and a few embedded supercells capable of
   damaging wind and a few tornadoes. An upgrade to higher
   probabilities might be needed in later outlooks once uncertainties
   regarding the thermodynamic environment have been mitigated.

   ..Dial.. 02/22/2018

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z

        
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Page last modified: February 22, 2018
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