Dec 19, 2014 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Fri Dec 19 08:30:56 UTC 2014 (20141219 0830Z Day 3 shapefile | 20141219 0830Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
0830 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Day 3 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20141219 0830 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 3 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 190830

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0230 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

   VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR OVER
   THE NORTHERN HALF OF FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA SUNDAY INTO
   SUNDAY NIGHT.

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   AMPLIFIED SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL PERSIST SUNDAY WITH A BROAD UPPER
   TROUGH EVOLVING OVER THE CNTRL STATES THROUGH THE OH AND TN VALLEYS.
   A SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BASE OF THIS
   FEATURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES...WHILE A WARM FRONT
   MOVES INTO THE NRN GULF.  

   ...CNTRL THROUGH NRN FL...

   RICHER GULF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE...BUT PARTIALLY MODIFIED
   GULF AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60F WILL ADVECT NWD INTO
   THE FL PENINSULA. THE MODEST MOISTURE RETURN AND WEAK MID-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT MUCAPE TO AOB 300 J/KG. THE APPROACH OF THE
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROMOTE AN INCREASE IN THE LLJ AND ISENTROPIC
   ASCENT...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE FRONT FROM SRN PORTIONS OF THE GULF
   COAST STATES INTO NRN FL. NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
   IN THIS REGIME ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

   ..DIAL.. 12/19/2014

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z