Mar 11, 2018 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Sun Mar 11 05:44:04 UTC 2018 (20180311 0830Z Day 3 shapefile | 20180311 0830Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
0830 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Day 3 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20180311 0830 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 3 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 110544

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1144 PM CST Sat Mar 10 2018

   Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Great
   Basin and Sierra Nevada Tuesday.

   ...Great Basin/Sierra Nevada...

   Strong Pacific cold front will cross the Sierra Nevada around 18z
   then into the Great Basin by 14/00z. Strong height falls and cooling
   mid-level temperatures will steepen lapse rates as profiles moisten
   within exit region of jet. As a result, buoyancy should increase
   such that convection is expected to deepen along a corridor from the
   higher terrain of eastern CA into NV. Strongest updrafts are
   expected to attain heights necessary for lightning discharge and low
   thunder probabilities have been added to this region.

   ..Darrow.. 03/11/2018

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z