Feb 27, 2017 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Mon Feb 27 08:28:08 UTC 2017 (20170227 0830Z Day 3 shapefile | 20170227 0830Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
0830 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Day 3 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
ENHANCED 75,308 8,659,546 Nashville, TN...Birmingham, AL...Knoxville, TN...Huntsville, AL...Chattanooga, TN...
SLIGHT 278,666 53,763,943 Philadelphia, PA...Memphis, TN...Baltimore, MD...Charlotte, NC...Washington, DC...
MARGINAL 223,503 50,590,607 New York, NY...Columbus, OH...Virginia Beach, VA...Pittsburgh, PA...Cincinnati, OH...
Probabilistic Graphic
20170227 0830 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 3 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
30 % 75,308 8,659,546 Nashville, TN...Birmingham, AL...Knoxville, TN...Huntsville, AL...Chattanooga, TN...
15 % 278,666 53,763,943 Philadelphia, PA...Memphis, TN...Baltimore, MD...Charlotte, NC...Washington, DC...
5 % 223,868 50,667,219 New York, NY...Columbus, OH...Virginia Beach, VA...Pittsburgh, PA...Cincinnati, OH...
   SPC AC 270828

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0228 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

   Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
   MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND NORTHWESTERN GEORGIA INTO MIDDLE AND
   EASTERN TENNESSEE AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY...

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
   APPALACHIAN STATES AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
   GULF COAST NORTHEASTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible from the lower
   Mississippi Valley northeastward across the Tennessee Valley and
   southern Appalachians, and northward into parts of the Mid-Atlantic
   states and perhaps portions of the Northeast.

   ...Synopsis...
   A mid-level trough will move eastward across the Midwest and into
   the lower Great Lakes during the day-3 period.  The primary
   mid-level vorticity maximum is progged to move from the middle MS
   Valley east-northeastward into the lower Great Lakes by late
   afternoon/early evening.  A surface low will develop northeast from
   Ontario to the St. Lawrence Seaway by late Wednesday night.  A cold
   front, initially near the lower OH Valley and lower MS Valley, will
   sweep eastward across much of the Southeast and the East.

   ...lower MS Valley into the TN Valley and southern Appalachians and
   north into the Mid-Atlantic states...
   An ongoing and likely extensive squall line or broken bands of
   storms are forecast near the MS River and lower OH Valley in
   association with a cold front.  Models vary slightly on the timing
   of the fronts' position during the early part of the day.  However,
   it seems likely substantial low-level moisture (upper 50s-mid 60s
   dewpoints) will extend northeast from the lower MS Valley to the
   WV/KY/OH/VA vicinity.  Despite the prevalence of some mid-high cloud
   cover, very strong low- to mid-tropospheric winds (50-70 kt
   southwesterly flow at 700 mb) should aid in the development of
   squall line with LEWPS/bowing segments capable of wind damage and
   possibly a tornado where greater destabilization occurs.  The
   convective line will likely persist (owing to 60-90m 12 hour 500mb
   height falls) and move across the Appalachian spine and possibly
   yield a continued risk for damaging winds after dark despite the
   loss of daytime heating.  The diminishing of buoyancy with eastward
   extend across the Southeast U.S. will probably lead to a
   corresponding weakening in storm intensity and strong/severe storm
   coverage.

   ...lower Great Lakes and Hudson Valley...
   The northern periphery of appreciable low-level moisture will likely
   move into the area as a warm front advances northward through a
   large part of the Northeast.  A storm cluster or two may be ongoing
   early Wednesday and may delay destabilization.  However, an influx
   of mid-upper 50s dewpoints will likely result in several hundred
   J/kg MUCAPE with a strong wind profile indicative of organized storm
   structures.  One or more bands may develop or move into the area
   during the midday/afternoon as the effective front pushes eastward. 
   Damaging winds will probably be the main severe hazard.  The main
   limiting factor for higher coverage of strong to severe
   thunderstorms will be weak instability.

   ..Smith.. 02/27/2017

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z