Mar 1, 2015 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Sun Mar 1 08:27:57 UTC 2015 (20150301 0830Z Day 3 shapefile | 20150301 0830Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
0830 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Day 3 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20150301 0830 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 3 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 010827

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0227 AM CST SUN MAR 01 2015

   VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
   MORNING FROM THE ARK-LA-TEX AND OZARKS TO WESTERN KENTUCKY AND
   WESTERN TENNESSEE.  ADDITIONAL ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR
   ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
   THE EARLY EVENING.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   SWLY MID-UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FROM
   KS/OK INTO THE OH VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES TO THE NERN STATES...AS A
   RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE
   BAHAMAS/CARIBBEAN...AND A LARGE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH AMPLIFIES
   ACROSS THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO ONTARIO/QUEBEC.  MEANWHILE...A
   PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DAMPEN DURING DAY 3 AS IT TRACKS
   NEWD WITHIN THE STRENGTHENING CONFLUENT FLOW REGIME.  AN ATTENDANT
   SURFACE LOW TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TROUGH SHOULD REACH LOWER MI
   BY EARLY TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN PROGRESS INTO SRN QUEBEC BY 12Z
   WEDNESDAY.  THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS ARE A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE
   ADVANCEMENT OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT THAN IS SUGGESTED BY THE 00Z
   NAM.  THE FORMER TWO MODELS SUGGEST THIS FRONT WILL EXTEND SWWD FROM
   LOWER MI THROUGH SRN IL...CENTRAL AR INTO NORTH TX BY 04/00Z...AND
   REACH A LINE FROM WRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SRN
   APPALACHIANS TO CENTRAL MS/NRN LA INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL TX BY 04/12Z. 

   ...ARKLATEX AND OZARKS TO LOWER MS/TN VALLEYS...
   ELEVATED TSTMS MAY BE ONGOING FROM PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX REGION
   THROUGH THE OZARKS WITHIN A ZONE OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL WAA.  AS THE
   LLJ ATTENDANT TO THE PROGRESSIVE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TROUGH VEERS
   AND TRANSLATES NEWD...LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING AND WAA SHOULD SUPPORT
   ADDITIONAL ELEVATED TSTMS DEVELOPING INTO WRN PORTIONS OF KY/TN
   TUESDAY MORNING.  MEANWHILE...ALTHOUGH SSWLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL
   AID IN MOISTENING THE WARM SECTOR FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE
   TN VALLEY...POOR LAPSE RATES WILL HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER
   INSTABILITY.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME STORMS MAY BECOME
   SURFACE-BASED PRIOR TO BEING UNDERCUT BY THE COLD FRONT...BUT THIS
   POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE QUITE LIMITED AT THIS TIME.  ALTHOUGH
   DEEP-LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR STRONG
   TO SEVERE ORGANIZED STORMS...THE MEAGER INSTABILITY PRECLUDES THE
   INCLUSION OF SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

   ..PETERS.. 03/01/2015

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z