Mar 9, 2014 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Sun Mar 9 07:59:46 UTC 2014 (20140309 0830Z Day 3 shapefile | 20140309 0830Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
0830 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20140309 0830 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 090757

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0157 AM CST SUN MAR 09 2014

   VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...TN VALLEY...

   WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE TN VALLEY REGION
   DURING THE DAY3 PERIOD AS NRN STREAM SHORT-WAVE TROUGH DIGS SEWD
   INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/MID MS VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD.  SFC
   PRESSURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ACROSS THE PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY
   FORCING A COLD FRONT INTO CNTRL IL...SWWD ACROSS SRN MO INTO CNTRL
   OK AT 12/00Z.  A NARROW CORRIDOR OF STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING IS
   EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND THIS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO STEEP
   LAPSE RATES IN THE LOWEST 3KM.  HOWEVER...WEAK INHIBITION MAY
   SUPPRESS SFC-BASED CONVECTION WITH FRONTAL UPLIFT LIKELY BEING
   REQUIRED FOR TSTM INITIATION.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MUCAPE ON
   THE ORDER OF 400 J/KG COULD BE NOTED DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
   PERIOD ACROSS MUCH OF THE TN VALLEY WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE THE
   PROSPECT FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/JUST BEHIND THE
   PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT.

   ...GULF OF MEXICO...

   LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NRN MEXICO SHORT-WAVE
   TROUGH WILL EJECT ACROSS SOUTH TX INTO THE ERN GULF BASIN LATE IN
   THE PERIOD.  GFS ALLOWS MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY TO RETURN TO
   PORTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA LATE.  THE NAM IS CONSIDERABLY FARTHER
   SOUTH WITH THIS FEATURE AND LESS BUOYANT AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. 
   FOR NOW WILL NOT INTRODUCE THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES DUE TO THE
   UNCERTAINTY IN SPEED/MOVEMENT OF NRN MEXICO/SOUTH TX SHORT-WAVE
   TROUGH.

   ..DARROW.. 03/09/2014

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z