Dec 2, 2016 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Fri Dec 2 08:16:41 UTC 2016 (20161202 0830Z Day 3 shapefile | 20161202 0830Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
0830 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Day 3 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20161202 0830 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 3 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 020816

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0216 AM CST FRI DEC 02 2016

   VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM SOUTHERN TEXAS THROUGH
   THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AREA ON SUNDAY.

   ...TEXAS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AREA...

   SOUTHERN-STREAM CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE THROUGH
   NORTHERN MEXICO LATER SUNDAY APPROACHING SOUTH TEXAS LATE SUNDAY
   NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO AMPLIFICATION OF AN UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE
   NORTHERN ROCKIES. A FRONT WILL PERSIST FROM SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE
   GULF COASTAL AREA. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH
   DEEP SOUTH TEXAS LATER SUNDAY AS CYCLOGENESIS COMMENCES OVER THE
   WESTERN GULF IN RESPONSE TO FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDING THE
   SOUTHERN-STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER...THE EASTERN EXTENSION OF
   THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY ALONG THE GULF COAST
   AREA. WIDESPREAD ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
   WITHIN A BROAD ZONE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
   FRONTAL ZONE FROM SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH A PORTION OF THE GULF COAST
   STATES. A SMALL WARM SECTOR MAY SPREAD INLAND ACROSS SOUTH
   LOUISIANA. HOWEVER...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED DUE TO
   TENDENCY FOR THE LOW-LEVEL JET TO SHIFT NEWD AWAY FROM THIS REGION
   DURING THE DAY IN RESPONSE TO A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
   THROUGH THE OH VALLEY.

   ..DIAL.. 12/02/2016

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z