Nov 24, 2017 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Fri Nov 24 06:52:53 UTC 2017 (20171124 0830Z Day 3 shapefile | 20171124 0830Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
0830 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Day 3 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20171124 0830 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 3 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 240652

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1252 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

   Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

   ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms are not currently expected across the contiguous
   United States on Sunday.

   ...Synopsis/Discussion...
   Late this weekend, a rather amplified mid-level trough will approach
   the Pacific Coast, resulting in a slow eastward progression of a
   downstream ridge towards the Plains. Meanwhile, broad cyclonic flow
   will remain established from the Mississippi Valley eastward. Along
   the western periphery of this cyclonic regime, rising heights aloft
   will help maintain surface ridging and a dry/continental air mass
   east of the Rockies, precluding thunderstorm development. 

   Farther west, cooling mid-level temperatures late in the period (in
   association with the aforementioned trough) will likely yield weak
   buoyancy sufficient for showers over parts of northern California
   and southern Oregon. While a lightning strike or two may occur near
   the coast, forecast soundings suggest the depth of buoyancy will be
   too marginal for the introduction of a general-thunder area at this
   time.

   ..Picca.. 11/24/2017

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z