Mar 12, 2017 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Sun Mar 12 06:24:29 UTC 2017 (20170312 0830Z Day 3 shapefile | 20170312 0830Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
0830 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Day 3 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20170312 0830 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 3 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 120624

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1224 AM CST Sun Mar 12 2017

   Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

   ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms are unlikely across the lower 48 on Tuesday.

   ...Synopsis...
   A large and deepening upper low will develop across the Great Lakes
   and into the Northeast with surface low developing northward across
   parts of New England. This will drive a cold front across the Gulf
   of Mexico and across the western Atlantic, shunting low-level
   moisture and instability well offshore. Strong lift with the
   northeastern system could possibly result in a rogue lightning
   strike or two with little instability, but coverage does not warrant
   a 10% thunder line at this time.

   Elsewhere, an upper ridge will exist across much of the West, with
   an upper trough gradually approaching the WA/OR coasts. With the
   main low well offshore, instability is not expected to support any
   thunderstorms.

   ..Jewell.. 03/12/2017

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z