Mar 12, 2016 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Sat Mar 12 08:28:33 UTC 2016 (20160312 0830Z Day 3 shapefile | 20160312 0830Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
0830 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Day 3 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 49,043 11,040,720 Charlotte, NC...Raleigh, NC...Norfolk, VA...Greensboro, NC...Chesapeake, VA...
Probabilistic Graphic
20160312 0830 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 3 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 49,043 11,040,720 Charlotte, NC...Raleigh, NC...Norfolk, VA...Greensboro, NC...Chesapeake, VA...
   SPC AC 120828

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0228 AM CST SAT MAR 12 2016

   VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SRN VA AND PARTS OF NC...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN
   VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD GRADUALLY DAMPEN AS IT TRACKS FROM
   THE TN VALLEY TOWARDS THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A STOUT SURFACE
   ANTICYCLONE SHOULD SHIFT ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WITH A RIDGE
   EXTENDING SW INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. IN THE NORTHWEST...AN
   UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AND BECOME CENTERED ACROSS THE NRN HIGH
   PLAINS BY EARLY TUE.

   ...NC/VA...
   DESPITE THE DAMPENING NATURE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH...MODEST FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD BE MAINTAINED THROUGH MON
   AFTERNOON DOWNSTREAM OF THIS WAVE. IN ADDITION...AN INCREASINGLY
   PRONOUNCED LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD BECOME ESTABLISHED
   ACROSS SRN VA AS DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OCCURS. WHILE MODELS ARE
   INCONSISTENT ON THE DEGREE OF WARM-SECTOR MOISTURE...PREDOMINANT
   SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS
   APPEAR PROBABLE. CONSISTENCY IS SUBSTANTIALLY GREATER WITH THE
   DEPICTION OF A PIECE OF THE SRN PLAINS EML PLUME OVERSPREADING THE
   REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. SETUP SHOULD FAVOR A MODEST COMBINATION OF
   BUOYANCY/SHEAR...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT A PRIMARY RISK OF ISOLATED
   SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

   ..GRAMS.. 03/12/2016

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z