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Jul-14-2004 1200 UTC Day 3 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Jul 14 08:52:37 UTC 2004  (Print Version)
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   SPC AC 140849
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0349 AM CDT WED JUL 14 2004
   
   VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO
   THE OH/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEYS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   OVERALL PATTERN WILL REMAIN SIMILAR THROUGH FRIDAY OVER THE U.S...
   WITH LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST AND STRONG RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF
   THE SRN PLAINS AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN FOCUS OF
   MODERATE NWLY FLOW FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE OH/MS RIVER
   VALLEYS...OVERRIDING SURFACE FRONT/INSTABILITY GRADIENT LIKELY TO
   EXTEND SE-NWWD ACROSS THIS GENERAL AREA.
   
   ...NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE OH/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEYS...
   SEVERAL FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG TOP
   OF RIDGE ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...AND DROP SEWD ALONG BACK SIDE
   OF ERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH.  THESE DISTURBANCES WILL LIKELY
   CONCENTRATE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE PERIOD.  THOUGH
   CAPPING WILL REMAIN STRONG WITHIN A VERY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR OVER
   THE PLAINS...INCREASING ASCENT SHOULD ALLOW SEVERAL CLUSTERS/MCSS TO
   EVOLVE AND SHIFT ESEWD ALONG COOL SIDE OF FRONT WITH A THREAT OF
   DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.  OTHER ISOLATED SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF SUPERCELLS...ARE EXPECTED TO
   INITIATE ALONG LEE TROUGH OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AND NEAR SURFACE
   COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY REGION DURING THE
   AFTERNOON.  THESE STORMS MAY ALSO EVOLVE INTO A SEVERE CLUSTER/MCS
   INTO THE EVENING.
   
   ..EVANS.. 07/14/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1200Z

        
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