Apr 29, 2016 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Fri Apr 29 07:05:21 UTC 2016 (20160429 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20160429 0730Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
0730 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Day 3 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 402,979 45,040,479 Houston, TX...San Antonio, TX...Austin, TX...Charlotte, NC...Nashville, TN...
Probabilistic Graphic
20160429 0730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 3 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 399,504 44,796,390 Houston, TX...San Antonio, TX...Austin, TX...Charlotte, NC...Nashville, TN...
   SPC AC 290705

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0205 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

   VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SOUTH TX...THROUGH THE SRN
   OH VALLEY INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED STORMS...A FEW SEVERE...ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM
   PORTIONS OF TEXAS...INTO THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY...AND PORTIONS OF
   THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC.

   ...DISCUSSION...

   BROAD SWLY FLOW AT MID LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE DAY3
   PERIOD.  WITHIN THIS FLOW...SEVERAL SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVES WILL
   LIKELY ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY ALONG A FRONTAL
   ZONE THAT WILL BE DRAPED FROM S TX...THROUGH THE SRN OH VALLEY INTO
   THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC.

   ONE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH...IN PARTICULAR...WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE MID
   MS VALLEY WITH 500MB SPEED MAX FORECAST TO TRANSLATE ACROSS MO INTO
   SRN IL DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG
   ASSOCIATED SYNOPTIC FRONT WILL DO SO WITHIN INCREASINGLY SHEARED
   ENVIRONMENT.  HAIL IS THE PRIMARY THREAT WITHIN THIS ACTIVITY.

   ISOLATED SEVERE MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT INTO THE MIDDLE
   ATLANTIC...THOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE SOMEWHAT
   WEAKER.

   WHILE LARGE-SCALE FORCING IS EXPECTED TO BE NEUTRAL-WEAK ACROSS THE
   LOWER MS VALLEY/TX...DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD PROVE ADEQUATE FOR
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG SHALLOW COLD FRONT.  HAIL IS THE
   GREATEST RISK WITH THESE EXPECTED MULTI-CELL UPDRAFTS.

   ..DARROW.. 04/29/2016

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z