Feb 25, 2018 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Sun Feb 25 08:12:46 UTC 2018 (20180225 0830Z Day 3 shapefile | 20180225 0830Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
0830 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Day 3 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 68,615 10,292,695 Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...Garland, TX...
Probabilistic Graphic
20180225 0830 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 3 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 68,518 10,349,573 Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...Garland, TX...
   SPC AC 250812

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0212 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2018

   Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   TEXAS...NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND FAR SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms accompanied by hail will be possible across parts of
   central and east Texas into southern Oklahoma and northwest
   Louisiana on Tuesday.

   ...Central and East Texas/Northwest Louisiana...
   An upper-level ridge is forecast to be in place across the eastern
   U.S. on Tuesday as southwest mid-level flow remains over the
   southern Plains. This pattern will result in strong moisture
   advection from central Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley.
   Scattered thunderstorm development will be possible along the
   northern edge of the warm sector from a low-level jet in central
   Texas eastward into western Louisiana and northward into southern
   Oklahoma. Forecast soundings in this area at 21Z on Tuesday show
   steep mid-level lapse rates, cold temperatures aloft, some
   instability and strong effective shear suggesting marginally severe
   hail will be possible with elevated thunderstorms during the mid to
   late afternoon.

   ..Broyles.. 02/25/2018

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z