Jul 31, 2014 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Thu Jul 31 06:36:50 UTC 2014 (20140731 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20140731 0730Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
0730 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20140731 0730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 310636

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0136 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

   VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH MINIMAL SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST
   ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY...MOST NOTABLY FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
   VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND FROM THE FOUR CORNERS STATES
   NORTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   DAYTIME HEATING BENEATH A WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE WILL AGAIN LEAD TO
   SCATTERED STORMS FROM AZ/NM NWD TO THE PACIFIC NW...WITH LOCALIZED
   STRONG WIND GUSTS. TO THE E...A NEARLY-STATIONARY UPPER TROUGH WILL
   REMAIN FROM MI SWD ACROSS THE OH AND LOWER MS VALLEYS. SWLY FLOW
   ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WILL EXIST ACROSS THE E COAST...WITH ELY
   SURFACE FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC RESULTING IN MOIST AIR MASS WITH POOR
   LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL FAVOR MAINLY A HEAVY RAIN THREAT FROM THE
   CAROLINAS INTO PA. INSTABILITY WILL GENERALLY BE WEAK...BUT THE
   LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PROFILES MAY FAVOR WEAK MESOCYCLONES
   CAPABLE OF WIND GUST ENHANCEMENT.

   ..JEWELL.. 07/31/2014

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z