Sep 5, 2015 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Sat Sep 5 07:19:34 UTC 2015 (20150905 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20150905 0730Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
0730 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Day 3 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 92,716 5,819,913 Kansas City, MO...Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Des Moines, IA...Overland Park, KS...
Probabilistic Graphic
20150905 0730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 3 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 92,202 5,845,670 Kansas City, MO...Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Des Moines, IA...Overland Park, KS...
   SPC AC 050719

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0219 AM CDT SAT SEP 05 2015

   VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
   THE LOWER MO VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
   MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
   THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
   PROVINCES WITH WEAKLY CYCLONIC FLOW SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE UPPER
   MIDWEST.  AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SWD FROM THE
   GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
   FROM STORMS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING MAY RESULT IN MULTIPLE
   MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES TO FOCUS REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS DURING THE
   AFTERNOON PEAK-HEATING PERIOD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER
   MO VALLEY.  

   ...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY...
   EARLY STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE MORNING BUT
   THE EFFECTS OF REMNANT CLOUD COVER MAY DELAY ONSET OF STRONGER
   DIABATIC HEATING OVER SOME AREAS.  AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
   POCKETS OF STRONGER HEATING WILL PROMOTE DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION
   WITH MAXIMUM MLCAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON.
   WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND OTHER MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES
   COUPLED WITH LOW-LEVEL HEATING WILL WEAKEN THE CAP SUFFICIENTLY FOR
   STRONG STORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  WITH THE
   STRONGER FLOW ALOFT DISPLACED TO THE NORTH OVER THE DAKOTAS AND
   MN...THE EFFECTIVE SHEAR OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA WILL BE MODEST
   /25-30 KT/ SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR PRIMARILY WEAKLY ORGANIZED
   MULTICELL STORMS.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE
   THREAT ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SEVERE CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND
   STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

   ..WEISS.. 09/05/2015

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z