Oct 19, 2014 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Sun Oct 19 07:21:02 UTC 2014 (20141019 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20141019 0730Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
0730 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20141019 0730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 190721

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0221 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

   VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE INTERIOR
   WEST...WESTERN AND SOUTHERN TEXAS...SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
   PENINSULA...AND PERHAPS NEAR SOUTHERN COASTAL NEW ENGLAND.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A MATURE MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. IS FORECAST TO
   EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW BY TUESDAY NIGHT.  FARTHER W...A MID-LEVEL
   RIDGE OVER THE MID MO VALLEY AND UPPER MIDWEST WILL BE DOWNSTREAM OF
   A LARGER-SCALE TROUGH OVER THE NRN ROCKIES/NRN GREAT BASIN.  A FRONT
   WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN AND NRN HIGH PLAINS DURING
   THE DAY 3 PERIOD.  AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
   LEAD TO GENERALLY STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE MIDWEST AND INTO MUCH
   OF THE SERN U.S.

   ...NRN UT/SRN ID...
   MODELS DIFFER REGARDING THE AMPLIFICATION AND TIMING OF A SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THIS REGION.  THE RECENT ITERATIONS
   OF THE ECMWF ARE FAVORED SHOWING A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION WITH A
   LEAD DISTURBANCE MOVING FROM ID INTO MT DURING THE DAY.  MARGINAL
   INSTABILITY MAY YIELD A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY NEAR A COLD
   FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.  

   ...SRN NEW ENGLAND...
   COLD TEMPS ALOFT /-20 DEG C AT H5/ IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER
   TROUGH WOULD SUPPORT DEEPER CONVECTION AND PERHAPS A FEW
   THUNDERSTORMS EVEN WITH MODEST SURFACE TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS.  BUT IT
   APPEARS THE MARITIME AIR WILL PROBABLY REMAIN NEAR OR IMMEDIATELY
   OFF THE COAST OF SRN NEW ENGLAND.

   ..SMITH.. 10/19/2014

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z