SPC AC 230725
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0125 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
LEAD UPR WAVE THAT WILL BE EJECTING ACROSS THE MIDWEST EARLY
WEDNESDAY WILL WEAKEN OVER THE GRTLKS REGION AS ANOTHER STRONG
IMPULSE DIGS INTO THE MID-MS VLY/UPR MIDWEST BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
MEANWHILE...SUB-TROPICAL BRANCH WILL CARRY A DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD FL BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AT THE SFC...INITIAL CDFNT ASSOCD WITH THE WEAKENING GRTLKS
DISTURBANCE WILL BECOME REINFORCED BY WEDNESDAY EVENING BY A
STRONGER FRONT. THIS NEW CP AIR MASS WILL REACH THE UPR OH/TN VLYS
AND CNTRL GULF CSTL REGION BY 12Z THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...AN OLD
FRONT WILL WAVE BACK N AS A WRMFNT INTO CNTRL FL AS A WAVE MIGRATES
EWD THROUGH THE CNTRL/ERN GULF BASIN. THIS LOW WILL TEND TO
REDEVELOP OFF THE ERN FL CST BY EARLY THURSDAY.
...CNTRL/SRN FL...
ONE OR MORE MCS/S WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING OVER THE CNTRL/ERN GULF OF
MEXICO AT THE START OF THE PD...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO A SUBTROPICAL
JETLET. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/MOVE ENE ALONG THE
FRONTAL ZONE INTO PENINSULAR FL DURING THE LATE AFTN/NIGHT. MODELS
INDICATE THAT LLVL MOISTURE...CHARACTERIZED BY 70S DEW POINTS...WILL
ADVECT NWD INTO AT LEAST CNTRL FL DURING THE LATE AFTN. LOW/MID-LVL
LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MODEST AT BEST...BUT GIVEN AN
INCREASE IN MID/HIGH-LVL FLOW...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT
FAVORABLE TO SUPPORT AN ISOLD ORGANIZED STORM...ESPECIALLY IF THE
GULF FRONTAL WAVE ENDS UP STRONGER THAN FCST.
..RACY.. 11/23/2009
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
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