Aug 23, 2014 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Sat Aug 23 07:30:53 UTC 2014 (20140823 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20140823 0730Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
0730 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20140823 0730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 89,736 3,905,818 Madison, WI...Green Bay, WI...Appleton, WI...Oshkosh, WI...La Crosse, WI...
   SPC AC 230730

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0230 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

   VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
   UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY...WHILE ADDITIONAL STORMS EVOLVE
   FARTHER TO THE WEST AND WEST-SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
   THE COUNTRY.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AS AN UPPER LOW SHIFTING NEWD AWAY FROM THE N CENTRAL U.S. CONTINUES
   TO WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES ONTARIO...THE LARGE-SCALE RIDGE IS PROGGED
   TO EXPAND ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE SRN AND ERN CONUS. 
   MEANWHILE...A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WRN PORTION OF
   THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

   AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT -- TRAILING SWWD FROM A LOW MOVING
   NEWD ACROSS ONTARIO TOWARD HUDSON BAY -- WILL ADVANCE EWD ACROSS THE
   UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE DAY.  MEANWHILE...THE WRN
   EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN MORE QUASISTATIONARY/W-E
   ORIENTED ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/CENTRAL PLAINS VICINITY THROUGH
   THE PERIOD.

   ...UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...
   ONGOING STORMS ARE FORECAST AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT EARLY
   IN THE PERIOD...WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION OF CONVECTION POSSIBLE
   DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MODEST DESTABILIZATION OCCURS.  WITH
   ENHANCED FLOW ALOFT -- ON THE SRN FRINGE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER
   SYSTEM -- LYING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR
   STORM ORGANIZATION IS EXPECTED.  THUS...A STRONGER STORM OR TWO MAY
   BECOME CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR HAIL THROUGH EARLY
   EVENING.

   ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ENEWD ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY...
   RELATIVELY SUBSTANTIAL MODEL-TO-MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT WITH
   RESPECT TO EVOLUTION OF THE WRN U.S. TROUGH...WITH THE GFS SHOWING A
   MORE PROGRESSIVE FEATURE CROSSING THE ROCKIES AND THEN APPROACHING
   THE PLAINS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD WHILE THE NAM SHOWS
   A CUT-OFF -- EVEN SLIGHTLY RETROGRESSIVE -- LOW OVER THE WRN NV/NRN
   CA VICINITY.  UPSTREAM DIFFERENCES ACROSS THE PLAINS ARE THUS ALSO
   EVIDENT...WITH THE NAM DEPICTING RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
   U.S. AND A WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT...WHILE THE GFS SUGGESTS
   CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ALONG THE WRN FRINGE OF
   THE SURFACE FRONT.  AS SUCH...THE GFS IS MUCH MORE BULLISH WITH
   RESPECT TO POSSIBLE SEVERE RISK...WHILE THE NAM WOULD SUGGEST A
   LARGELY SUB-SEVERE/ELEVATED CONVECTIVE EVENT N OF THE FRONT. 
   ATTM...WILL OPT TO REFRAIN FROM ISSUANCE OF SEVERE PROBABILITIES DUE
   TO UNCERTAINTY...WITH THIS AREA TO BE RE-EVALUATED IN LATER
   FORECASTS.

   ..GOSS.. 08/23/2014

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z