Jul 27, 2016 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Wed Jul 27 07:29:07 UTC 2016 (20160727 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20160727 0730Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
0730 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Day 3 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 123,445 22,130,199 Philadelphia, PA...Oklahoma City, OK...Virginia Beach, VA...Tulsa, OK...Norfolk, VA...
Probabilistic Graphic
20160727 0730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 3 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 123,312 22,128,719 Philadelphia, PA...Oklahoma City, OK...Virginia Beach, VA...Tulsa, OK...Norfolk, VA...
   SPC AC 270729

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0229 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

   VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
   REGION...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE SRN/CNTRL
   PLAINS AND OZARK PLATEAU...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...AND
   OZARK PLATEAU.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX WILL QUICKLY PROGRESS NEWD FROM THE
   MID-ATLANTIC REGION ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC
   LOW AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY EVENING...WITH
   WRN SEGMENT OF THIS FRONT STALLING NEAR THE OH VALLEY. A SEPARATE
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN BROADER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL
   MOVE ACROSS THE MID-MO VALLEY AND APPROACH THE MID-MS VALLEY. SFC
   HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...WHILE A
   COLD FRONT WEAKENS OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS.

   ...MID-ATLANTIC REGION...
   PRIMARY SHORTWAVE IMPULSE LAGGING A LEAD MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX IS
   EXPECTED TO CROSS THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS BY LATE MORNING...AND REACH
   COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY THE EVENING. MODEST
   DESTABILIZATION WITHIN A MOISTURE-RICH AIR MASS SHOULD OCCUR S OF
   WIDESPREAD/PERSISTENT AREA OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
   INTO SRN NY...AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING SWD ACROSS SRN NEW
   ENGLAND. A FEW STRONG TO DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
   CONVECTION OCCURRING NEAR/AHEAD THE COLD FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF
   NJ/DEL...AND TSTMS FORMING WITHIN A UNIDIRECTIONAL/WLY FLOW REGIME
   AMIDST STRONGER HEATING ACROSS ERN VA AND FAR NERN NC.
   HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE EFFECT OF
   PRECIPITATION AND THE AMOUNT OF DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION THAT WILL
   OCCUR. 

   ...MID-MS VALLEY WWD ACROSS THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS...
   MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A MCS WILL EXIST ACROSS PARTS OF SRN
   KS OR NRN OK AT THE START OF THE FRI/D3 PERIOD...WITH AN OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY LIKELY POSITIONED ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION. 20-30 KT OF
   MIDLEVEL FLOW COUPLED WITH A MOIST AIR MASS SHOULD SUPPORT BOUTS OF
   STRONG CONVECTION...WITH THE MOST LIKELY CORRIDOR FOR TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TO EXIST FROM SWRN KS ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU.
   HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH GIVEN THE DEPENDENCE ON
   CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION LATE IN THE D2 PERIOD.

   ..ROGERS.. 07/27/2016

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z