Sep 30, 2014 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Tue Sep 30 07:08:34 UTC 2014 (20140930 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20140930 0730Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
0730 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 152,565 11,493,738 Kansas City, MO...St. Louis, MO...Shreveport, LA...Little Rock, AR...Overland Park, KS...
Probabilistic Graphic
20140930 0730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 151,270 11,312,333 Kansas City, MO...St. Louis, MO...Shreveport, LA...Little Rock, AR...Overland Park, KS...
5 % 228,070 22,082,082 Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Memphis, TN...Fort Worth, TX...Tulsa, OK...
   SPC AC 300708

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0208 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

   VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY
   AND ARKLATEX...

   ...SUMMARY...
   BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM ALONG COLD FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES
   INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE
   EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

   ...MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/ARKLATEX...

   PRONOUNCED SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES
   EARLY IN THE PERIOD BEFORE PROGRESSING INTO ERN KS/OK/NERN TX BY
   03/00Z.  LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO
   ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG/IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF COLD
   FRONT...LIKELY BEGINNING BY LATE MORNING ACROSS ERN KS/OK.

   FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES ACROSS THE WRN GULF BASIN DURING
   THE DAY2 PERIOD SHOULD AID NWD ADVANCE OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
   ACROSS TX INTO THE MID MS VALLEY BY THURSDAY MORNING.  EARLY IN THE
   PERIOD LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR ELEVATED
   CONVECTION ACROSS IA INTO SWRN WI/NWRN IL.  WHILE THIS ACTIVITY MAY
   PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IT APPEARS MORE SIGNIFICANT
   CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE ALONG COLD FRONT AS IT ADVANCES INTO THE MS
   VALLEY WHERE 6-8HR OF BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING SHOULD AID INSTABILITY
   PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE.

   LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A LINEAR BAND OF STORMS
   WILL FORM ALONG COLD FRONT WITH INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED AFTER 18Z
   AS WEAK CAP IS REMOVED.  SEASONALLY STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD AID
   EWD MOVEMENT OF CONVECTION AT SPEEDS AOA 30KT.  SQUALL LINE IS
   EXPECTED TO ADVANCE TOWARD THE MS RIVER BY 03/00Z.  MOST BUOYANT
   AIRMASS IS EXPECTED NEAR THE ARKLATEX AND STORMS THAT FORM ALONG THE
   TRAILING COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE SOME HAIL ACROSS THIS REGION.

   ..DARROW.. 09/30/2014

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z