Mar 30, 2017 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Thu Mar 30 07:29:02 UTC 2017 (20170330 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20170330 0730Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
0730 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Day 3 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 235,236 25,737,016 Houston, TX...San Antonio, TX...Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Fort Worth, TX...
Probabilistic Graphic
20170330 0730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 3 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 235,628 25,733,908 Houston, TX...San Antonio, TX...Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Fort Worth, TX...
   SPC AC 300729

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0229 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

   Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
   SURROUNDING AREAS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO MID/UPPER
   TEXAS COASTAL AREAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered strong to severe storm development is possible Saturday
   across parts of the central and southern Plains into mid/upper Texas
   coastal areas.

   ...Synopsis...
   Models indicate that a broadening/weakening mid-level circulation,
   centered east/southeast of the Four Corners region by 12Z Saturday,
   will elongate and weaken further during this period.  Considerable
   variability exists among the models concerning this evolution, but,
   in general, one emerging perturbation may pivot northeastward
   through the central Plains Saturday/Saturday night, while one or two
   others dig into the northern Mexican Plateau and Texas Big Bend
   region.  These latter features may increasingly interact with a belt
   of westerlies emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific by 12Z
   Sunday.

   In lower-levels, it appears that surface cyclogenesis within lee
   surface troughing across the southern Plains will remain weak or
   negligible through this period.  However, modest southerly low-level
   flow to the east of the lee trough may allow for increasingly
   substantive moistening, within at least a narrow corridor across
   parts of central/eastern Texas and Oklahoma.  This probably will
   contribute to sufficient destabilization to support increasing
   thunderstorm activity.

   ..Cntrl/srn Plains into Rio Grande Valley/Texas Gulf Coast..
   While it remains possible that conditions could evolve in manner
   that could support appreciable severe weather potential on Saturday,
   this is far from certain at the present time.  Model variability
   concerning the smaller scale features and their evolution adds to
   the uncertainty.

   Scattered thunderstorm development is possible to the east of the
   surface trough across parts of Kansas southward through Oklahoma
   during the day Saturday in response to forcing associated with the
   lead impulse.  This may occur to the east of dryline expected to
   become better defined across parts of western Oklahoma into west
   central Texas by late afternoon, and perhaps prior to appreciable
   boundary layer moistening and destabilization.  The progression of
   this impulse may also result in stronger lower/mid tropospheric flow
   becoming displaced to the east of the dryline, before low-level flow
   possible begins to back and strengthen near the dryline in response
   to approaching upstream perturbations.

   Depending on the progressiveness of the consolidating impulses over
   the Mexican Plateau/Texas Big Bend/Rio Grande Valley, it may not be
   out of the question that a more substantive risk for severe
   thunderstorm development could evolve across parts of the lower Rio
   Grande Valley through the Texas Coastal plain Saturday night. 
   Better boundary layer moisture return, increasing vertical shear and
   forcing for large-scale ascent could all contribute to
   organizing/upscale growing convective development with severe
   hail/wind potential prior to 12Z Sunday.

   Regardless, areas of developing moderate to strong vertical shear
   and weak to modest destabilization could support isolated to widely
   scattered strong/severe storm potential Saturday through Saturday
   night.

   ..Kerr.. 03/30/2017

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z