Jan 31, 2015 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Sat Jan 31 08:28:38 UTC 2015 (20150131 0830Z Day 3 shapefile | 20150131 0830Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
0830 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Day 3 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20150131 0830 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 3 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 310828

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0228 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

   VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
   FLORIDA...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SPARSE.

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE
   ATLANTIC SEABOARD MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH TRAILING PORTIONS OF THE
   FRONT CONTINUING SWD THROUGH THE FL PENINSULA DURING THE DAY.

   ...FL...

   LOW-MID 60S F LOW-LEVEL DEWPOINTS WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE FL
   PENINSULA MONDAY...BUT INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN VERY WEAK /AOB 300
   J/KG/ OWING TO POOR LAPSE RATES AND AREAS OF CLOUDS. SHOWERS AND A
   FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE ALONG THE FRONT INTO THE NRN AND
   CNTRL FL. DEEPER AND STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE PENINSULA. THIS ALONG WITH THE
   EXPECTED VERY MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SUGGEST
   THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN SPARSE.

   ..DIAL.. 01/31/2015

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z