May 6, 2015 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Wed May 6 07:24:53 UTC 2015 (20150506 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20150506 0730Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
0730 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Day 3 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 209,859 13,661,886 Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Arlington, TX...
MARGINAL 173,526 16,406,591 San Antonio, TX...Austin, TX...Kansas City, MO...St. Louis, MO...Lubbock, TX...
Probabilistic Graphic
20150506 0730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 3 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 210,688 13,804,189 Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Arlington, TX...
5 % 167,034 15,785,065 San Antonio, TX...Austin, TX...Kansas City, MO...St. Louis, MO...Lubbock, TX...
   SPC AC 060724

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0224 AM CDT WED MAY 06 2015

   VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
   AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK
   AREA FROM THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SOUTHEAST NORTH
   CAROLINA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
   CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER LOW OVER SRN CA WILL MOVE EWD TO CENTRAL AZ DURING FRIDAY
   AS A BELT OF SWLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS FROM THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS
   INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND FROM THE
   MICHIGAN UPPER PENINSULA SWWD TO THE NRN TX PANHANDLE LATE FRIDAY
   AFTN WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE/W TX. A
   SFC LOW SOUTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE NWD. CONSULT THE
   LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

   ...SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS...
   A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MAY BE ONGOING FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF KS/OK AIDED BY WAA ASSOCIATED WITH A SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET. RESIDUAL
   OUTFLOW/CLOUDS WILL INFLUENCE THE EFFECTIVE FRONTAL POSITION AND
   SUBSEQUENT PREFERRED LOCATIONS FOR NEW TSTM DEVELOPMENT.

   HEIGHT FALLS/LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
   EWD-MOVING UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN W OF THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS
   FRIDAY...HOWEVER LOW-AMPLITUDE IMPULSES WITHIN THE SWLY FLOW WILL
   ONCE AGAIN INFLUENCE AFTN/EVENING CONVECTIVE TRENDS. ONE IMPULSE
   TRAVERSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY FRIDAY MAY AID THE CONTINUATION
   OF MORNING TSTMS THROUGH THE AFTN ACROSS PORTIONS OF MO/IL.

   THE FOCUS FOR MORE CONSEQUENTIAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT FRI AFTN WILL BE
   ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SWD ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER SRN
   KS/OK/W TX. STG SFC-BASED BUOYANCY...40-50 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
   AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL INITIALLY FAVOR SUPERCELLS WITH
   LARGE HAIL. RELATIVELY LOW LCL HEIGHTS AND NOCTURNALLY INCREASING
   LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN A TORNADO THREAT DURING THE
   EVENING HOURS BEFORE UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
   COMPLEX OCCURS. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
   AS THE MCS MOVES EWD OVERNIGHT.

   ...SRN NC COAST...
   LATEST GUIDANCE PLACES A SFC LOW ALONG THE COAST NEAR THE NC-SC
   BORDER DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL ELY FLOW
   RESULTING IN SUBSTANTIALLY-CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. THE RISK FOR
   A TORNADO WILL EXIST WITH CONVECTIVE CELLS NEAR/ALONG THE COAST.

   ..BUNTING.. 05/06/2015

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z