Jun 28, 2016 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Tue Jun 28 07:14:39 UTC 2016 (20160628 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20160628 0730Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
0730 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Day 3 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 240,979 15,976,038 Denver, CO...Kansas City, MO...Colorado Springs, CO...Wichita, KS...Raleigh, NC...
Probabilistic Graphic
20160628 0730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 3 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 241,411 16,051,090 Denver, CO...Kansas City, MO...Colorado Springs, CO...Wichita, KS...Raleigh, NC...
   SPC AC 280714

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0214 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

   VALID 301200Z - 011200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL
   PLAINS...OZARKS AND LOWER MO VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
   CAROLINAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS
   OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD INTO THE OZARKS AND
   LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS WILL
   ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE CAROLINAS.

   ...CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS/OZARKS/LOWER MO VALLEY...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD INTO THE UPPER MS
   VALLEY AND MID MO VALLEY WITH WEST NORTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE
   ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
   MOVE ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH THUNDERSTORMS
   INITIATING ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALONG AND SOUTH OF
   THE FRONT...SFC DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID 60S F WHICH
   SHOULD ENABLE MODERATE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE
   WARM SECTOR. IN ADDITION...A SRN PLAINS LOW-LEVEL JET OF 30 TO 40 KT
   MAY RESULT IN MCS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF KS BY EARLY EVENING.
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT WICHITA KS FOR 00Z/FRI SHOW MLCAPE VALUES OF
   2500 J/KG...25 TO 30 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WITH 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES
   APPROACHING 9.0 C/KM. THIS ENVIRONMENT WOULD SUPPORT MULTICELLS WITH
   WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS MAY ALSO PRODUCE HAIL.
   THE MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT COULD EXTEND AS FAR EAST AS MO WHERE
   STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY ARE FORECAST.

   ...CAROLINAS...
   A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS ERN PARTS
   OF THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY. AT THE SFC...A LEE TROUGH IS FORECAST
   IN THE PIEDMONT WITH A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE TO THE EAST OF
   THE SFC TROUGH. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S F IN ERN NC AND IN MUCH OF
   SC SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON.
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN AREAS THAT DESTABILIZE THE
   MOST WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BECOMES ENHANCED. DUE TO THE VERY
   MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...MARGINALLY SEVERE WET DOWNBURSTS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE NEAR PEAK HEATING.

   ..BROYLES.. 06/28/2016

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z