May 27, 2016 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Fri May 27 07:41:17 UTC 2016 (20160527 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20160527 0730Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
0730 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Day 3 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 169,204 12,880,331 Detroit, MI...Toledo, OH...Fort Wayne, IN...Lubbock, TX...Grand Rapids, MI...
Probabilistic Graphic
20160527 0730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 3 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 169,536 12,918,498 Detroit, MI...Toledo, OH...Fort Wayne, IN...Lubbock, TX...Grand Rapids, MI...
   SPC AC 270741

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0241 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

   VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS LOWER MI...NORTHEAST
   INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OH...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN PORTIONS
   OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
   AND EVENING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN...NORTHEAST INDIANA AND NORTHWEST
   OHIO.  ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
   WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   GENERALLY WEAK WESTERLY MIDLEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
   SOUTHERN HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF THE U.S. THIS FORECAST
   PERIOD...WHILE LOW-AMPLITUDE FLOW REGIME IS RELEGATED TO THE
   NORTHERN TIER STATES.  A MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL DEAMPLIFY AS IT TRACKS
   FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY. 
   AT THE SURFACE...AN ATTENDANT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM
   NORTHWEST ONTARIO /NORTH OF NORTHERN MN/ TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST
   REACHING THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF JAMES BAY BY 12Z MONDAY.

   ...LOWER MI/NORTHEAST INDIANA/NORTHWEST OH...
   MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW
   SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S TO REACH LOWER MI.  THIS COMBINED
   WITH MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 C/KM AND SURFACE HEATING SUGGEST
   MUCAPE UP TO 1500 J/KG SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG
   THE TRACK OF THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.  DESPITE MODERATE
   INSTABILITY...MODEST BULK SHEAR OF 25-30 KT ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE
   SURFACE WIND SHIFT SUGGESTS LINE SEGMENTS WITH LOCALLY STRONG WINDS
   AND/OR SOME HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.  IF BULK SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE
   STRONGER IN LATER OUTLOOKS...THEN SOME OF THIS AREA MAY NEED TO BE
   UPGRADED TO GREATER SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

   ...WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...
   MODERATELY STRONG INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
   CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY WITH MUCAPE RANGING FROM 2000-3000 J/KG. 
   ALTHOUGH WESTERLY 500-MB FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE AT 20-30
   KT...STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW - ESPECIALLY THROUGH
   SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT - WILL SUPPORT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 35-40
   KT.  THIS CAPE/SHEAR PARAMETER SPACE WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
   ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING FOR
   ASCENT AND THE LACK OF FOCUSED SURFACE CONVERGENCE...THIS OUTLOOK
   WILL INTRODUCE A RATHER BROAD MARGINAL SEVERE-WEATHER THREAT.  WITH
   GENERALLY WEAK TO MODEST MIDLEVEL FLOW...STORMS THAT DO FORM COULD
   FAVOR COLD-POOL DEVELOPMENT WITH STORMS PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD SUNDAY
   EVENING/NIGHT.

   ...COASTAL CAROLINAS...
   UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF A TROPICAL/SUB-TROPICAL
   SYSTEM INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS WEEKEND PRECLUDES THE
   INTRODUCTION OF SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.

   ..PETERS.. 05/27/2016

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z