Nov 23, 2014 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Sun Nov 23 08:08:30 UTC 2014 (20141123 0830Z Day 3 shapefile | 20141123 0830Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
0830 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 20,612 6,641,790 Cape Coral, FL...Port St. Lucie, FL...Palm Bay, FL...Melbourne, FL...Sarasota, FL...
Probabilistic Graphic
20141123 0830 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 20,864 6,585,552 Hialeah, FL...Fort Lauderdale, FL...Pembroke Pines, FL...Hollywood, FL...Coral Springs, FL...
   SPC AC 230808

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0208 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

   VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL AND SRN
   FL...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
   FLORIDA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY WHERE A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND
   GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

   ...SRN AND CNTRL FL...
   A LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE MID MS
   VALLEY AND SRN PLAINS ON TUESDAY. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE IS
   FORECAST TO SETTLE INTO PLACE ACROSS THE CNTRL U.S. AS A COLD FRONT
   MOVES SWD ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN FL. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
   DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS AT 21Z ON TUESDAY AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE SHOW SFC
   DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 F WITH TEMPS AROUND 80 F. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
   STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH SBCAPE AROUND 1200 J/KG. IN
   ADDITION...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR
   IN THE 35 TO 40 KT RANGE. THIS ENVIRONMENT COULD SUPPORT A THREAT
   FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGER MULTICELLS.

   ..BROYLES.. 11/23/2014

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z