May 26, 2015 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Tue May 26 07:03:14 UTC 2015 (20150526 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20150526 0730Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
0730 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Day 3 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 766,184 45,684,024 Houston, TX...San Antonio, TX...Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Fort Worth, TX...
Probabilistic Graphic
20150526 0730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 3 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 765,440 45,776,541 Houston, TX...San Antonio, TX...Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Fort Worth, TX...
   SPC AC 260703

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0203 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

   VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MS
   VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS DURING
   THE DAY3 PERIOD.  THE GREATEST RISK FOR STRONG STORMS WILL BE ACROSS
   THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

   ...NRN NEW ENGLAND...

   QB-NY SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT EWD EARLY IN THE PERIOD FORCING
   SFC FRONT THROUGH NWRN MAINE BY 18Z.  BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AHEAD
   OF COLD FRONT SHOULD PROVE ADEQUATE...ALONG WITH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
   FOR SCT THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WIND SHIFT.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR OVER MAINE SUGGEST SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR
   ROBUST UPDRAFTS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE ASSIST FROM SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
   AND SFC-6KM FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 35KT.  HAVE INTRODUCED MRGL RISK
   FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH CONVECTION THAT EVOLVES ALONG SURGING COLD
   FRONT.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE BY 29/00Z.

   ...PLAINS...

   COMPLICATED CONVECTIVE SCENARIO WILL EVOLVE DURING THE DAY3 PERIOD
   ACROSS THE INTERIOR U.S...FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO TX.  WEAK SPLIT
   FLOW REGIME WILL LIKELY INDUCE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION
   ACROSS THE PLAINS/MS VALLEY REGION DUE PARTLY TO WEAK INHIBITION AND
   AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING.  LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WEAK
   FORCING WILL BE OBSERVED ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY AHEAD
   OF SHORT WAVE AND LIKEWISE ACROSS WEST TX WITH A FEATURE THAT WILL
   PROGRESS FROM NRN MEXICO INTO THE BIG BEND REGION BY EARLY EVENING. 
   FORECAST MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS IS QUITE WEAK WITH 500MB
   SPEEDS ON THE ORDER OF 20KT IN MANY PLACES.  POCKETS OF STRONGER
   FLOW LIKELY REFLECT CONVECTION IN THE MODELS AND AMPLE INSTABILITY
   SHOULD SUPPORT SEVERE TSTMS.  HOWEVER...FORECAST STEERING CURRENTS
   ARE JUST TOO WEAK TO JUSTIFY MORE THAN 5 PERCENT SEVERE FOR A DAY3
   OUTLOOK.  LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH CONVECTION
   ACROSS THIS REGION.

   ..DARROW.. 05/26/2015

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z