Conversion from Probabilistic to Categorical Forecasts

DAY 1


Category Element Probability Significant?

SEE TEXT Hail 5% n/a

or

Wind 5% n/a

or

Tornado 2% n/a

______________________________________________________________________________

SLGT Hail 15-25% YES or no

or

Wind 15-25% YES or no

or

Tornado 5% n/a

______________________________________________________________________________

MDT

Hail 35-45% YES or no

or

Wind 35% YES or no

or

Wind 45% no

or

Tornado 15% YES or no

______________________________________________________________________________

HIGH Hail n/a n/a

or

Wind 45% YES

or

Tornado 25-45% YES or no

_____________________________________________________________________________

DAY 2

SEE TEXT 5% all severe n/a

SLGT 15-25% all severe YES or no

MDT 35% all severe YES or no

45% all severe no

HIGH 45% all severe YES

______________________________________________________________________________

DAY 3

SEE TEXT 5% all severe n/a

SLGT 15-25% all severe YES or no

MDT 35% all severe YES or no


Note: A 5% probability for only a tornado threat (mainly associated with tropical systems) can be issued as a SLGT RISK for the Day 2 and Day 3 Outlooks.