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Nov 19, 2009 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Nov 19 05:34:14 UTC 2009  (Print Version)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
SPC Day1 1200Z Outlook Categorical
  
  
 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 190531
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1131 PM CST WED NOV 18 2009
   
   VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...TX...
   
   LATEST SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT REGARDING THE
   EVOLUTION OF SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE
   SWRN U.S. INTO FAR WEST TX BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THIS FEATURE
   WILL UNDOUBTEDLY AID IN THE RETURN OF MARITIME TROPICAL AIRMASS
   ACROSS THE SRN/WRN GULF BASIN AS CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
   RETREATS ACROSS THE GULF STATES.  THE DEGREE OF MODIFICATION
   INLAND...INDICATED BY BOTH THE NAM AND GFS...MAY BE A BIT AGGRESSIVE
   WITH BOTH MODELS SUGGESTING NEAR 70 SFC DEW POINTS BY THE END OF THE
   PERIOD ACROSS SOUTH TX.  LATEST SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE 70+ DEW
   POINTS HAVE BEEN SHUNTED INTO THE SRN BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE
   YUCATAN PENINSULA.  REGARDLESS...WARM ADVECTION WILL INTENSIFY
   ACROSS TX LATE IN THE PERIOD AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES WEST TX.
    LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SHOULD
   BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF DEEP CONVECTION DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
   PERIOD...PRIMARILY AFTER 06Z.  WITH LLJ EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS
   SRN/CNTRL TX IT APPEARS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THUNDERSTORM
   ACTIVITY COULD EVOLVE ACROSS THIS REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. 
   SHEAR PROFILES WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR STORM ROTATION AND A FEW WEAK
   SUPERCELLS COULD EVOLVE.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
   NOT BE PARTICULARLY INTENSE...MODEST INSTABILITY WITHIN POOR LAPSE
   RATE ENVIRONMENT COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED HAIL OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
    AT THIS TIME LATEST GUIDANCE/DIAGNOSTIC DATA DO NOT SUPPORT
   ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
   
   ...ERN U.S...
   
   UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT
   LAKES REGION WITH PRIMARY LARGE SCALE FORCING EXPECTED TO SPREAD
   NORTH OF THE DELMARVA REGION INTO SRN ONTARIO/QUEBEC.  00Z NAM
   GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BOUNDARY LAYER WILL MODIFY A BIT MORE THAN IS
   LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.  SFC BOUNDARY WILL STRUGGLE TO
   MOVE INLAND AS SFC RIDGE STUBBORNLY RETREATS ACROSS THE MIDDLE
   ATLANTIC/SRN NEW ENGLAND.  WARM ADVECTION ATOP THIS COOLER AIRMASS
   SHOULD PROVE ADEQUATE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...A FEW
   STRONGER/DEEPER UPDRAFTS MAY PRODUCE LIGHTNING.
   
   ..DARROW/GRAMS.. 11/19/2009
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

        
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Page last modified: November 19, 2009
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