Conversion from Probabilistic to Categorical Forecasts

DAY 1

 

Category                                 Element                       Probability                   Significant?

SEE TEXT                            Hail                             5%                                    n/a

or

Wind                           5%                                    n/a

or

Tornado                       2%                                    n/a

______________________________________________________________________________

SLGT                                     Hail                             15-25%                        YES or no

or       

Wind                           15-25%                        YES or no

or

Tornado                       5%                                    n/a

______________________________________________________________________________

MDT                          

Hail                             35-45%                        YES or no

or

Wind                           35%                             YES or no

or

Wind                           45%                             no

or       

Tornado                       15%                             YES or no

______________________________________________________________________________

HIGH                                      Hail                             n/a                               n/a

or

Wind                           45%                             YES

or

Tornado                       25-45%                        YES or no

_____________________________________________________________________________

DAY 2

SEE TEXT                            5% all severe                                                   n/a

SLGT                                     15-25%  all severe                                           YES or no

MDT                                       35% all severe                                                 YES or no

                                                45% all severe                                                 no

HIGH                                      45% all severe                                                 YES

______________________________________________________________________________

DAY 3

SEE TEXT                            5% all severe                                                   n/a

SLGT                                     15-25% all severe                                            YES or no

MDT                                       35% all severe                                                 YES or no     

 

Note: A 5% probability for only a tornado threat (mainly associated with tropical systems) can be issued as a SLGT RISK for the Day 2 and Day 3 Outlooks.