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    Day 2 Outlook >
Jun 23, 2014 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Jun 23 12:38:45 UTC 2014 (Print Version | 20140623 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140623 1300Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 231238

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0738 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2014

   VALID 231300Z - 241200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR ERN
   CO AND NM...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
   ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO THIS
   AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
   WINDS.  OTHER MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY FROM
   NORTH AND NORTHEAST TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.

   ...ERN CO AND NM THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
   THE LOW LEVELS WILL SLOWLY RECOVER TODAY ACROSS ERN CO...IN THE WAKE
   OF A LARGE OVERNIGHT MCS THAT CROSSED KS/OK AND IS ONGOING IN N
   CENTRAL AND NW TX.  RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS FROM THE UPPER
   40S TO LOWER 50S WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING TO SUPPORT
   AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS ERN CO AND
   VICINITY.  MEANWHILE...WLY TO WNWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW NEAR 30 KT WILL
   COMBINE WITH LOW-LEVEL SELY WINDS FOR SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL
   SHEAR TO SUPPORT A RISK FOR SUPERCELLS.  STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM
   BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON JUST E OF THE FRONT RANGE...WITH STORMS
   EXPECTED TO MOVE SEWD ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THIS EVENING.  THE
   STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
   DAMAGING GUSTS...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

   FARTHER S INTO NM...A FEW STORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER
   THE E SLOPES OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOVE SEWD INTO THIS EVENING. 
   BUOYANCY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH SWD EXTENT...WITH THE LARGEST
   BUOYANCY /MLCAPE OF 2000-3000 J PER KG/ EXPECTED ACROSS SE NM WHERE
   THE RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS ADVECTED WWD ALONG THE RESIDUAL
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.  HOWEVER...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE WEAKER COMPARED
   TO AREAS FARTHER N IN CO...BUT COULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
   MARGINAL SUPERCELLS AND/OR ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS.  THE
   THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR THE RISK FOR BOTH LARGE HAIL
   AND STRONG DOWNDRAFTS WITH AN ATTENDANT DAMAGING WIND RISK.

   ...N TX THIS MORNING...
   THE OVERNIGHT MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE SEWD AT 35-40 KT THROUGH THE DFW
   METROPLEX...WITH OBSERVING SITES REPORTING GUSTS MAINLY IN THE 30-45
   KT RANGE.  SATELLITE...RADAR...AND LIGHTNING TRENDS ALL SUGGEST
   WEAKENING OF THIS SYSTEM THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...WHILE VEERING
   AND WEAKENING OF THE LLJ THIS MORNING WILL FURTHER REDUCE STORM
   INFLOW AND REGENERATION OF NEW CONVECTION ALONG THE GUST FRONT. 
   THUS...WHILE AN ISOLATED SEVERE GUST CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT
   IN THE SHORT TERM...THE OVERALL SEVERE STORM RISK IS MARGINAL AND
   SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH.

   ...ARKLATEX THIS AFTERNOON...
   THE MCV FROM THE LARGE OVERNIGHT MCS IN OK WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD
   TOWARD WRN AR BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.  A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD
   DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE ERN AND SRN PERIPHERY OF THE MCV
   AND RESIDUAL CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS...WHERE BUOYANCY WILL BE STRONGEST.
   THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING GUSTS
   AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

   ...SRN LOWER MI/NRN INDIANA/NW OH TODAY...
   A WEAK REMNANT THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER AND DIFFUSE MCV ARE MOVING ENEWD
   FROM SRN LAKE MI TO SRN LOWER MI.  MEANWHILE...THE SYNOPTIC WARM
   FRONT IS LIFTING NWD FROM NRN INDIANA/OH TO SRN LOWER MI.  SURFACE
   HEATING IN CLOUD BREAKS AND MOISTENING WITH WARM-FRONTAL PASSAGE
   WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION TODAY...WITH MLCAPE POTENTIALLY
   REACHING 1500-2000 J/KG.  HOWEVER...VERTICAL SHEAR AND MIDLEVEL
   LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAK...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT ANY NEW STORM
   CLUSTERS ON THE FRINGES OF THE MORNING CONVECTION WILL NOT BE
   PARTICULARLY INTENSE OR ORGANIZED.  STILL...THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY
   PRODUCE ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE OUTFLOW GUSTS.

   ..THOMPSON/SMITH.. 06/23/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

        
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