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    Day 2 Outlook >
Mar 7, 2013 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Click to see valid 1Z - 12Z Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Mar 7 16:14:05 UTC 2013  (Print Version)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 071558
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0958 AM CST THU MAR 07 2013
   
   VALID 071630Z - 081200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SEWD JUST OFF THE CENTRAL/SRN CA
   COASTS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.  A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS PERSISTS
   INLAND...WHILE WEAK BUOYANCY WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST WITH
   GREATER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE MIDLEVEL
   COLD CORE AND ZONE OF ASCENT IMMEDIATELY PRECEDING THE LOW. 
   THUS...ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG THE CENTRAL CA COAST...AND TONIGHT ALONG THE
   SRN CA COAST.  FARTHER E AND NE...MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN
   TOO LIMITED FOR MORE THAN JUST AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO
   ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY.  SOME MIDLEVEL
   MOISTENING AND WEAK DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT ACROSS
   SE AZ IN ADVANCE OF THE SRN CA MIDLEVEL LOW.  HOWEVER...THIS WILL
   OCCUR VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD /09-12Z/...AND THE OVERALL
   THUNDERSTORM RISK APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO ADD AN AREA IN THIS
   OUTLOOK.
   
   OTHERWISE...A RIDGE ALOFT COVERS THE CENTRAL CONUS...IN THE WAKE OF
   A DEEP ATLANTIC COAST CYCLONE THAT CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE.  WEAK
   LEE CYCLOGENESIS IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH
   PLAINS...AND THIS WILL INDUCE RETURN FLOW OF A MODIFYING
   POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS INTO S/CENTRAL TX BY EARLY FRIDAY.  THE
   COMBINATION OF MODEST MOISTURE AND A WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL
   LIMIT BUOYANCY AND ANY THREAT FOR DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS TX.  ONE
   POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS W/NW KS TONIGHT...WHERE MOISTURE
   FROM THE TOP OF THIS AFTERNOON/S BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SPREAD NEWD
   FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...IN A STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. 
   STILL...ANY BUOYANCY WILL BE QUITE MARGINAL AND ROOTED AOA THE 600
   MB LEVEL...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT ANY THUNDERSTORM RISK WILL BE VERY
   MARGINAL AT BEST...GIVEN THE MEAGER MOISTURE PROFILES.
   
   ..THOMPSON/GRAMS.. 03/07/2013
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z

        
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Page last modified: March 07, 2013
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