Mar 7, 2013 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Mar 7 19:29:32 UTC 2013
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20130307 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20130307 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20130307 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20130307 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
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   SPC AC 071925
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0125 PM CST THU MAR 07 2013
   
   VALID 072000Z - 081200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK IS ON TRACK WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
   POSSIBLE ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CA COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
   TONIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
   
   ..LEITMAN.. 03/07/2013
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0958 AM CST THU MAR 07 2013/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SEWD JUST OFF THE CENTRAL/SRN CA
   COASTS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.  A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS PERSISTS
   INLAND...WHILE WEAK BUOYANCY WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST WITH
   GREATER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE MIDLEVEL
   COLD CORE AND ZONE OF ASCENT IMMEDIATELY PRECEDING THE LOW. 
   THUS...ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG THE CENTRAL CA COAST...AND TONIGHT ALONG THE
   SRN CA COAST.  FARTHER E AND NE...MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN
   TOO LIMITED FOR MORE THAN JUST AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO
   ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY.  SOME MIDLEVEL
   MOISTENING AND WEAK DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT ACROSS
   SE AZ IN ADVANCE OF THE SRN CA MIDLEVEL LOW.  HOWEVER...THIS WILL
   OCCUR VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD /09-12Z/...AND THE OVERALL
   THUNDERSTORM RISK APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO ADD AN AREA IN THIS
   OUTLOOK.
   
   OTHERWISE...A RIDGE ALOFT COVERS THE CENTRAL CONUS...IN THE WAKE OF
   A DEEP ATLANTIC COAST CYCLONE THAT CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE.  WEAK
   LEE CYCLOGENESIS IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH
   PLAINS...AND THIS WILL INDUCE RETURN FLOW OF A MODIFYING
   POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS INTO S/CENTRAL TX BY EARLY FRIDAY.  THE
   COMBINATION OF MODEST MOISTURE AND A WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL
   LIMIT BUOYANCY AND ANY THREAT FOR DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS TX.  ONE
   POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS W/NW KS TONIGHT...WHERE MOISTURE
   FROM THE TOP OF THIS AFTERNOON/S BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SPREAD NEWD
   FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...IN A STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. 
   STILL...ANY BUOYANCY WILL BE QUITE MARGINAL AND ROOTED AOA THE 600
   MB LEVEL...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT ANY THUNDERSTORM RISK WILL BE VERY
   MARGINAL AT BEST...GIVEN THE MEAGER MOISTURE PROFILES.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z