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Jun 2, 2014 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Jun 2 17:19:48 UTC 2014 (Print Version | 20140602 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20140602 1730Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 021717

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1217 PM CDT MON JUN 02 2014

   VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN
   NEBRASKA...NORTHERN KANSAS...SOUTHERN IOWA...NORTHERN MISSOURI AND
   WESTERN ILLINOIS...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL AND
   NRN PLAINS THROUGH THE MID-UPPER MS VALLEY AREAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   NUMEROUS SEVERE STORMS ARE FORECAST TUESDAY FROM A PORTION OF THE
   CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGIONS. LARGE
   HAIL AND WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY. TORNADOES...SOME
   STRONG...WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL REACH THE
   GREAT BASIN/CENTRAL ROCKIES BY 12Z TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN
   MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE DAY AND
   INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT. A STRONG UPPER JET
   WITH 60-70 KT AT 500 MB WILL ACCOMPANY THIS IMPULSE. AT THE SURFACE
   A FRONT WILL STALL FROM THE OH VALLEY WESTWARD INTO NEBRASKA WHILE A
   LEE CYCLONE DEEPENS OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
   INCREASING WESTERLIES ALOFT AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE EJECTING
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN SHIFT EASTWARD ALONG THE
   BOUNDARY THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. TO THE SOUTH OF
   THE SURFACE LOW...A DRYLINE WILL SET UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
   PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  

   ...CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE MID-UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
   REGIONS...

   THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT TUESDAY
   AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...TORNADOES AND WIDESPREAD
   DAMAGING WINDS. 

   THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT 12Z TUESDAY ACROSS WESTERN
   NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA AS A LOW-LEVEL JET RESULTS IN ISENTROPIC
   LIFT/MOIST ADVECTION NORTH OF A WARM FRONT. THE SUBSEQUENT EVOLUTION
   OF MORNING CONVECTION WILL HAVE SOME IMPACT ON WARM FRONTAL
   LOCATION/AREAS OF HIGHER THREAT LATER IN THE DAY...HOWEVER ALL
   GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A VERY ACTIVE PERIOD BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON
   AND CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

   AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...A
   SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE
   EASTWARD ALONG A WARM FRONT THAT WILL EXTEND EASTWARD GENERALLY
   ALONG THE KANSAS-NEBRASKA BORDER. STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT
   IN UPPER 60S DEW POINTS BECOMING WIDESPREAD THROUGHOUT THE WARM
   SECTOR AND RESULTING IN AFTERNOON MLCAPE OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG.
   STRENGTHENING LOW-MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES
   WILL RESULT IN AN ENVIRONMENT VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON...WITH STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
   IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE IN THE
   VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT...WITH NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICTING
   LARGE LOOPING HODOGRAPHS AND 0-1 KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 250 M2/S2.
   STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT VERY LARGE HAIL WITH
   INITIAL SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE MAXIMIZED
   OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...NEAR
   AND JUST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW. 

   WITH TIME...UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS APPEARS
   LIKELY...AIDED BY A STRENGTHENING/VEERING LOW-LEVEL JET AND STRONG
   ISENTROPIC LIFT. ALTHOUGH THE MCS SHOULD INITIALLY MOVE GENERALLY
   EASTWARD...A SOUTHEAST MOTION WITH TIME APPEARS LIKELY. A
   SIGNIFICANT WIND THREAT MAY CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS
   IOWA/NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN ILLINOIS.

   ..CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

   THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WY AND MT AND
   SPREAD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
   WILL SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...POSING A
   RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

   ..BUNTING.. 06/02/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

        
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