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Mar 7, 2013 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Thu Mar 7 16:23:48 UTC 2013  (Print Version)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 070758
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0158 AM CST THU MAR 07 2013
   
   VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF TX...
   
   ...SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...
   
   POSITIVE TILTED BUT BI-MODAL UPPER TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE
   SRN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS STATES SATURDAY.  LEAD SPEED MAX WILL
   EJECT ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE MID DAY WITH A LATE AFTERNOON POSITION
   OVER NWRN OK.  IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE...SFC LOW OVER SWRN KS
   MAY INTENSIFY BRIEFLY BEFORE EJECTING NEWD DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
   THE PERIOD.  THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS
   IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW AND PERHAPS EVEN ALONG ADVANCING
   DRYLINE/PACIFIC COLD FRONT WHERE A NARROW AXIS OF INSTABILITY SHOULD
   DEVELOP DUE TO STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALONG WRN EDGE OF LOWER 50S
   SFC DEW POINTS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT LITTLE MORE THAN A FEW
   HUNDRED J/KG OF MUCAPE BUT LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL PROVE FAVORABLE
   ACROSS KS ALONG NOSE OF STRONGEST LOW LEVEL HEATING.  GIVEN THE
   LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL ONLY INTRODUCE 5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBS FOR
   THE POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING WINDS OR PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO.
   
   FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS CNTRL TX...INSTABILITY WILL BE NOTABLY HIGHER
   ACROSS THIS REGION WITH PERHAPS MUCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF THE HILL COUNTRY.  TSTMS MAY STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP ALONG
   THE COLD FRONT UNTIL AFTER DARK WHEN INFLUENCE OF SWRN SPEED
   MAX/SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EJECTS INTO THE BIG BEND REGION.  FRONTAL
   CONVERGENCE WILL PROVE INSTRUMENTAL IN CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT/ORGANIZATION.  HAIL AND PERHAPS SOME DAMAGING WINDS WILL
   BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH TSTMS THAT DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE RED
   RIVER.
   
   ..DARROW.. 03/07/2013
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z

        
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Page last modified: March 07, 2013
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