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< Day 1 Outlook   Day 3 Outlook >
Mar 8, 2013 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Mar 8 21:23:28 UTC 2013  (Print Version)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Probabilistic
 Population  Cities  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 123,743 9,798,334 Memphis, TN...New Orleans, LA...Baton Rouge, LA...Mobile, AL...Jackson, MS...
 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 081725
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1125 AM CST FRI MAR 08 2013
   
   VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF TX...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER LOW/SHORT-WAVE TROUGH -- PART OF LARGER TROUGH COMPRISED OF
   PHASED NRN AND SRN STREAM COMPONENTS -- IS FORECAST TO SHIFT NEWD
   OUT OF THE SRN ROCKIES AND INTO/ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION
   THROUGH THE PERIOD.  AS THIS OCCURS...A SURFACE LOW /INITIALLY OVER
   ERN CO/WRN KS/ AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT /INITIALLY TRAILING SWD
   ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND THE TRANSPECOS REGION OF W TX/ WILL
   SHIFT EWD INTO THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS.  BY SUNSET...EXPECT THE
   LOW TO BE APPROACHING CENTRAL KS WITH THE COLD FRONT SWEEPING INTO
   CENTRAL OK AND NWRN TX/THE HILL COUNTRY...AND THEN CONTINUING EWD
   ACROSS THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT.  THIS FRONT WILL FOCUS
   PRECIPITATION/CONVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY
   -- INCLUDING SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM KS SWD TO TX.
   
   ...SRN PLAINS...
   ANY CONVECTION ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS WRN OK/NWRN
   TX SHOULD BE SUB-SEVERE...AND IS LIKELY TO FURTHER WEAKEN THROUGH
   THE DAY.  MEANWHILE...MODEST DESTABILIZATION WILL COMMENCE AHEAD OF
   THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT...WITH SURFACE-BASED CAPE LIKELY TO REACH
   THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE FROM SRN OK SWD ACROSS THE TX HILL
   COUNTRY BY LATE AFTERNOON.  ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT STORM
   RE-INITIATION WILL OCCUR ACROSS NWRN TX -- AND POSSIBLY NWD INTO
   CENTRAL OK -- INVOF THE FRONT IN THE 21Z TO 23Z TIME FRAME...WITH
   STORMS THEN DEVELOPING SWWD ALONG THE FRONT INTO THE EVENING.  
   
   WITH LOW-LEVEL VEERING OF THE FLOW FIELD TOPPED BY SWLYS INCREASING
   WITH HEIGHT TO 60-PLUS KT AT MID LEVELS...SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE
   OF ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORMS.  HOWEVER...WITH CAPPING LIKELY TO
   CONFINE MUCH OF THE CONVECTION TO THE FRONTAL ZONE -- AND THUS
   LINEAR ORGANIZATION LIKELY TO PREDOMINATE -- EXPECT LOCALLY DAMAGING
   WINDS AND HAIL TO BE THE MAIN THREATS.  THOUGH THE THREAT SHOULD
   DIMINISH INTO THE EVENING...SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL -- ESPECIALLY IN
   THE FORM OF HAIL -- MAY LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL TX AND SWWD TOWARD THE
   DEL RIO/COTULLA/LAREDO REGION.
   
   ...CENTRAL PLAINS...
   AS COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW
   SPREAD ACROSS THE KS/NEB REGION -- POSSIBLY ATOP LOCAL HEATING OF
   BOUNDARY LAYER WITHIN A WEAK DRY SLOT...AN AFTERNOON PEAK IN
   SURFACE-BASED CAPE COULD AID IN STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER PARTS OF WRN
   KS/S CENTRAL NEB.  DEPENDING UPON THE DEGREE OF HEATING/CAPE
   DEVELOPMENT...A FEW STRONGER CELLS COULD PRODUCE MARGINAL HAIL INTO
   THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
   
   ..GOSS.. 03/08/2013
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z

        
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Page last modified: March 08, 2013
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