DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT WED MAY 16 2012

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY CONSISTENT THAT A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE
EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD TRACK FROM
THE SOUTHWEST TO THE SRN ROCKIES ON D3. A LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL
PERSIST FROM THE BLACK HILLS TO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...INTERSECTING A
COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD ACCELERATE SEWD ACROSS THE NRN INTO THE CNTRL
HIGH PLAINS BY EARLY SAT.

...NRN TO SRN HIGH PLAINS...
ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BE THE THIRD DAY OF POLEWARD TRANSPORT OF A
MARGINALLY MOIST AIR MASS FROM THE SRN PLAINS...RETURN FLOW OFF THE
WRN GULF SHOULD REMAIN MODEST AFTER NOT COMMENCING UNTIL LATE D2.
SURFACE DEW POINTS /ALTHOUGH INCREASING/ WILL BE MARGINAL FOR A
TYPICAL PLAINS WARM SECTOR...LARGELY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S/40S
ALONG THE LEE TROUGH IN THE HIGH PLAINS TO PERHAPS LOWER 50S OVER
THE NRN PLAINS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. STRENGTHENING CONVERGENCE ALONG
THESE BOUNDARIES AND STRONG HEATING SHOULD GENERALLY RESULT IN WEAK
BUOYANCY AND AT LEAST ISOLATED TSTMS FORMING DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING.

DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH APPROACH OF THE WRN
CONUS TROUGH...BUT SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY MODERATE AND LIKELY
STRONGER WITH NRN EXTENT. THIS MAY SUPPORT A FEW HIGH-BASED
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF ISOLATED SEVERE WIND/HAIL.
STILL...WITH MID-LEVEL S/SWLYS ROUGHLY PARALLELING THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT AND ANAFRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THIS BOUNDARY...PROSPECTS
FOR SUSTAINED ORGANIZED STORMS APPEAR TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT A
SLIGHT RISK DELINEATION ATTM.

..GRAMS.. 05/16/2012

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0342 AM CDT WED MAY 16 2012

VALID 191200Z - 241200Z

...DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD EXIST ON SAT/D4 FROM THE UPPER MS
VALLEY TO THE CNTRL PLAINS...WITH INCREASINGLY LIMITED PROSPECTS
THEREAFTER. ABOVE-AVERAGE CONFIDENCE PERSISTS WITH HIGH CONTINUITY
AMONG THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS AND GEFS MEAN WITH THE DEPICTION OF A
DAMPENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING FROM THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE
CNTRL PLAINS ON D4. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE
E/SEWD...LIKELY REACHING THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO CNTRL PLAINS BY SAT
AFTERNOON. CONCERNS OVER WARM SECTOR MOISTURE RETURN DESCRIBED IN
THE D2/3 OUTLOOKS SUGGEST GFS/GEFS MEAN SURFACE DEW POINTS CONTINUE
TO DISPLAY A HIGH BIAS. GFSX MOS AND THE ECMWF APPEAR MORE
REASONABLE WITH GENERALLY 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS. GIVEN THE
DAMPENING NATURE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH...MID-LEVEL FLOW NEARLY
PARALLELING THE SURFACE FRONT AND LIKELY ONLY MODERATE
BUOYANCY...SETUP DOES NOT RENDER SEVERE PROBABILITIES AOA 30 PERCENT
ATTM.