DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0254 AM CDT WED MAY 16 2012

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
A DISTINCT SHORT WAVE PERTURBATION OVER NV IS FORECAST TO DEAMPLIFY
WHILE TRACKING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS PERIOD. ANOTHER
WELL DEFINED SRN STREAM VORTEX WILL MAKE SLOW EWD PROGRESS ALONG THE
GULF COAST. BETWEEN THE NV AND GULF COAST TROUGHS A WEAK MID LEVEL
RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS.

IN THE NRN STREAM...A PRONOUNCED AND PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST/NRN NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM WILL SURGE
EWD/SEWD THIS PERIOD AND EXTEND FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES
TO THE MID ATLANTIC BY EARLY THURSDAY.

...NORTHEAST AZ ACROSS FOUR CORNERS...
A BELT OF STRONGER FLOW IN THE BASE OF THE EJECTING MID/UPPER TROUGH
WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS NERN AZ AND SRN UT AND THEN TOWARD THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO
THE LOW TO MID 80S F FROM NERN AZ TO THE FOUR CORNERS...RH VALUES
SHOULD FALL INTO THE TEENS OR LOWER. THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE
MID/UPPER WAVE AND TURBULENT MIXING THROUGHOUT THE DEEPENING
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A 1 TO 2 HOUR PERIOD OF STRONGER
SURFACE WINDS COINCIDENT WITH MAX HEATING. EXPECT SUSTAINED SSWLY
WINDS OF 12-17 /GUSTS 25-30/ MPH IN LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH HIGHER
SUSTAINED WINDS TO 25 /GUSTS TO 40/ MPH ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WSWLY AND WLY AND THEN WEAKEN WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE TROUGH LATE IN THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST. ANTECEDENT SEVERE
TO EXTREME DROUGHT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE FIRE THREAT IN THE REGION
TODAY BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED THE
THRESHOLD FOR A CRITICAL RISK AREA.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
DESPITE A GRADUAL DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA...MODEST DOWNSTREAM SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS
FORECAST IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. SUBSEQUENT MASS ADJUSTMENT WILL
SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN SUSTAINED SLY WINDS TO ABOUT 25-35 MPH ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS FROM ERN CO ACROSS THE NEB PNHDL THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S F IN THESE AREAS WHILE RH
FALLS TO ABOUT 15-20 PERCENT. IN ADDITION TO POCKETS OF ABNORMAL
DRYNESS AND MODERATE DROUGHT OVER SOME OF THE REGION...A FEW LATE
DAY HIGH-BASED/DRY TSTMS MAY SPREAD EAST FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
POSE SOME THREAT OF ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STARTS. OVERALL RISK APPEARS LIMITED BY MARGINAL RH
VALUES.

..CARBIN.. 05/16/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0350 AM CDT WED MAY 16 2012

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN...
...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHIFT IS BEING FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK AS A DEVELOPING PACIFIC TROUGH...CURRENTLY WELL OFF THE
WEST COAST...MOVES OVER THE WRN STATES ON THURSDAY...AND A BROAD
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE BUILDS OVER MUCH OF THE ERN U.S. WEAK TROUGHING
WILL PERSIST FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INLAND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND
FL.

...SRN NV ACROSS NRN AZ...
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN FORECASTING THE ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED STRONGER WIND FIELDS
CROSSING THE WEST COAST DURING THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND COVERS A LARGER AREA THAN THE MOST RECENT
DISTURBANCE OF THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. TEMPERATURES IN THE CRITICAL
RISK AREA WILL AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S F IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WITH 70S AND 80S F IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ACROSS THE REGION DEPICT VERY LIMITED OVERNIGHT RH
RECOVERY AND THUS MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL FALL QUICKLY BELOW 10
PERCENT WITH HEATING OF THE DAY. SUSTAINED SWLY SURFACE WINDS OF
12-17 MPH WILL INCREASE TO 15-25 MPH THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH POSSIBLE BY EVENING. SURFACE WINDS MAY REMAIN
RELATIVELY STRONG INTO THE EVENING AS STRONGER FLOW IN THE BASE OF
THE MID/UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SRN NV AND NRN AZ
DURING THIS TIME. ANTICIPATED CONDITIONS AND ANTECEDENT SEVERE
DROUGHT WILL EXACERBATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE STARTS AND FIRE
GROWTH THUS WARRANTING THE CRITICAL RISK AREA.

..CARBIN.. 05/16/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...