DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0301 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SERN HALF OF UT...PORTIONS OF
WRN/CNTRL/SRN CO...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/NRN/WRN NM...NRN/E-CNTRL
AZ...EXTREME SERN NV...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS IN SRN
CA----MUCH OF THE ERN TWO-THIRDS OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY...THE NRN
TWO-THIRDS OF VENTURA COUNTY...NWRN/N-CNTRL LOS ANGELES
COUNTY...PARTS OF FAR SRN KERN COUNTY...

...SYNOPSIS...
EARLY-MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A STRONG MID-LEVEL
CYCLONE MOVING ASHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NW COAST. AN ACCOMPANYING
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DIGGING SSEWD INTO NRN/CNTRL CA AND IS
BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED WITHIN THE SRN SEMICIRCLE OF THE BROADER
AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW. THIS TROUGH WILL ADVANCE NEWD FROM PARTS OF
THE CNTRL GREAT BASIN TO THE NRN ROCKIES AND THE ADJACENT HIGH
PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT...WHILE THE CENTER OF THE MID-LEVEL CYCLONE
SLOWLY PROGRESSES EWD FROM THE PACIFIC NW TO THE NRN ROCKIES. A ZONE
OF STRONG TROPOSPHERIC FLOW ATTENDANT TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
OVERLIE DRY/VERY DRY SFC CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL GREAT
BASIN...THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES...AND THE SW STATES TO ENHANCE THE
FIRE WEATHER THREAT. A SEPARATE AREA OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN CA.

...THE SERN HALF OF UT...PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL/SRN CO...PORTIONS OF
CNTRL/NRN/WRN NM...NRN/E-CNTRL AZ...EXTREME SERN NV...
---WINDS----
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED ZONE OF STRONG TROPOSPHERIC FLOW AFFECTS THE
REGION...SWLY SFC WINDS OF 20-25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED
IN TANDEM WITH DIURNALLY DEEPENING MIXED LAYERS THAT WILL ALLOW THE
STRONGER ALOFT TO BE MANIFESTED AT THE SFC. THE STRONG-WIND
POTENTIAL WILL BE AIDED BY A TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
MANY LOCATIONS.

A RELATIVE WEAKNESS IN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
PARTS OF CNTRL/N-CNTRL NM MAY PREVENT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS FROM
BECOMING CRITICALLY STRONG THERE. HOWEVER...IN THIS AREA...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXED-LAYER HEIGHTS REACHING OVER 11
KFT...ALLOWING EVEN STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW -- I.E. AROUND THE
500-MB LEVEL -- TO BE MANIFESTED AT THE SFC AS FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25
TO 30 MPH. AND...WITH VERY LOW RH VALUES EXPECTED IN THIS AREA
AMIDST VERY DRY FUELS AND A WARM/HOT AIR MASS -- AS DISCUSSED 
BELOW -- CRITICAL DESIGNATION IS WARRANTED DESPITE THE LOCALIZED
WEAKER SFC WINDS.

----RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND TEMPERATURES----
WITH AN ANTECEDENTLY DRY AIR MASS...AND DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS AIDING
BOUNDARY-LAYER WARMING/DRYING...RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO
BETWEEN 4 AND 13 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS
WHILE VERTICAL MIXING STRENGTHENS. THIS WILL OCCUR AS TEMPERATURES
RISE INTO THE 80S AND 90S.

----FUELS----
FUELS ARE DRY TO VERY DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH ONGOING
DROUGHT CONDITIONS IN PLACE...INCLUDING SEVERAL AREAS OF EXCEPTIONAL
DROUGHT CONDITIONS. THESE DRY/VERY FUELS WILL EXACERBATE THE FIRE
WEATHER THREAT. ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES...SOME AREAS
HAVE RECEIVED WETTING RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
RECENTLY. HOWEVER...MANY AREAS DID NOT RECEIVE APPRECIABLE
RAINFALL...YIELDING BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION TO SUPPORT DRY FUELS.

...THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS IN SRN CA----MUCH OF THE ERN TWO-THIRDS
OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY...THE NRN TWO-THIRDS OF VENTURA
COUNTY...NWRN/N-CNTRL LOS ANGELES COUNTY...PARTS OF FAR SRN KERN
COUNTY...
----SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE OVERVIEW----
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND MODEL GUIDANCE OFFER LITTLE
OVERALL CHANGE REGARDING THE ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN
SUPPORTING THIS CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. UPSTREAM OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR AN EWD MOTION OF
THE CENTER OF A SFC ANTICYCLONE COVERING PARTS OF THE PACIFIC HIGH
SEAS. THIS SUBSIDENCE WILL ALSO FOSTER ENEWD BRANCHING OF A RIDGE
AXIS FROM THE ANTICYCLONE CENTER INTO PARTS OF THE NWRN CONUS. AS A
N/S-ORIENTED LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE ALIGNING WITH THE LOWER CO
RIVER VALLEY STRENGTHENS...THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
ACROSS THE CRITICAL AREA. THIS WILL ACCELERATE GENERALLY NLY FLOW
THROUGH THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...WITH NWLY TO NELY WINDS
STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE COASTAL RANGES AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS
THROUGH THE DAY. STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. THIS WILL SUPPORT A STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE
FLOW COMPONENT ALONG PARTS OF THE SANTA BARBARA COUNTY AND THE FAR
WRN VENTURA COUNTY COASTLINES FOLLOWING THE DESCENT OF THIS FLOW IN
THE LEE OF THE SANTA YNEZ MOUNTAINS. DOWNSLOPE
EFFECTS/BOUNDARY-LAYER WARMING WILL AUGMENT SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE
LARGE-SCALE SYNOPTIC FLOW REGIME TO SUPPORT A DRYING AIR MASS.

----WINDS----
THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT CRITICALLY STRONG NWLY TO NELY SFC WINDS
INCREASING TO 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS REACHING 35-50 MPH THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY...WITH THESE WINDS CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST OF THESE WINDS WILL OCCUR ON A LOCALIZED
BASIS THROUGH FAVORED PASSES AND CANYONS. THE ANTICIPATION OF THESE
STRONG WINDS IS AFFIRMED BY THE LATEST 4-KM NAM GUIDANCE...ALONG
WITH OTHER HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING 4-KM AFWA
ENSEMBLE MODEL OUTPUT.

----RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND TEMPERATURES----
AFTER RH VALUES FALL INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO MIDDLE TEENS
DURING THE DAY TODAY...THE STRENGTHENING DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT
AND DECREASING PW WILL KEEP RH VALUES CRITICALLY LOW INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES ONLY FALL INTO THE 60S AND
70S.

----FUELS----
FUELS ARE VERY DRY ACROSS THE AREA...WITH SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS
IN PLACE AND BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION DURING THE PAST FEW MONTHS.
GIVEN THE STATE OF THE FUELS...THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG WINDS/LOW
RH WILL EXACERBATE THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT TO WARRANT CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER DESIGNATION.

...SURROUNDING THE ERN CRITICAL AREA ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NV...CNTRL/SRN/WRN AZ...SWRN/S-CNTRL NM...CNTRL/N-CNTRL/ERN
CO...CNTRL/S-CNTRL WY...THE NWRN HALF OF UT...
MANY AREAS W OF A CNTRL/SRN-HIGH-PLAINS LEE TROUGH WILL EXPERIENCE
CRITICALLY LOW RH GIVEN A DRY AIR MASS AND DIURNALLY STRENGTHENING
VERTICAL MIXING. HOWEVER...IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONGER LOW/MID-LEVEL
FLOW IN MANY AREAS...CRITICALLY STRONG SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
UNLIKELY IN COMBINATION WITH THESE LOW RH VALUES. AN EXCEPTION IS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/N-CNTRL CO...WHERE CRITICAL METEOROLOGICAL
CONDITIONS COULD ENSUE. HOWEVER...ACROSS THESE AREAS IN
CNTRL/N-CNTRL CO...MORE LIMITED FUEL DRYNESS MAY MITIGATE THE FIRE
WEATHER THREAT...AND RELATIVELY LOWER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER RH MAY
ALSO MITIGATE THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT.

ALSO OF NOTE...THE AFOREMENTIONED CRITICAL METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO EXTEND INTO CNTRL/S-CNTRL WY. HOWEVER...COORDINATION
WITH THE RIVERTON WY AND CHEYENNE WY WEATHER FORECAST OFFICES
SUGGESTS THAT FUELS ARE NOT SUFFICIENTLY DRY ACROSS THESE AREAS TO
EXTEND THE CRITICAL NWD INTO PORTIONS OF CNTRL/S-CNTRL WY AT THIS
TIME.

..COHEN.. 06/19/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0303 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SRN UT...SWRN CO...WRN
NM...NRN/E-CNTRL AZ...EXTREME SERN NV...

...SYNOPSIS...
A MID-LEVEL CYCLONE WILL MEANDER ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN
ROCKIES...WHILE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROADER AREA
OF FLOW SURROUNDING THE CYCLONE CENTER MAINTAIN MEAN CYCLONIC FLOW
IN THE MID LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WRN CONUS. ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL PIVOT AROUND THE CYCLONE FROM MT INTO ADJACENT SRN
CANADA...WHILE ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PIVOT THROUGH THE SRN
AND WRN SEMICIRCLES OF THE CYCLONE. MEANWHILE...A RIDGE WILL BUILD
ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL CONUS. THESE FACTORS WILL MAINTAIN A ZONE
OF ENHANCED TROPOSPHERIC FLOW ACROSS PARTS OF THE WRN STATES...WHICH
WILL OVERLIE DRY SFC CONDITIONS IN SOME LOCATIONS TO SUPPORT A
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA.

...PORTIONS OF SRN UT...SWRN CO...WRN NM...NRN/E-CNTRL AZ...EXTREME
SERN NV...
THE AFOREMENTIONED ENHANCED TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IS FORECAST TO SUPPORT
SSWLY TO SWLY SFC WINDS OF 20-25 MPH AS VERTICAL MIXING STRENGTHENS
THROUGH THE DAY AND ALLOWS THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT TO BE MANIFESTED
AT THE SFC. AND...WITH A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...RH VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 5-10 PERCENT AS STRONG DIURNAL HEATING
SUPPORTS TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 80S AND 90S. THE PRESENCE OF
DRY/VERY DRY FUELS WILL EXACERBATE THE FIRE WEATHER
THREAT...RESULTING IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DESIGNATION.

...SURROUNDING THE CRITICAL AREA ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN NV...SRN/WRN
AZ...SRN/CNTRL/ERN/NRN NM...WRN PARTS OF THE OK/TX PANHANDLES...SWRN
KS...SRN/WRN CO...SRN/CNTRL/ERN UT...
----STRONG WIND/LOW RH POTENTIAL----
RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME CRITICALLY LOW IN MANY AREAS TO THE
W OF A CNTRL/SRN-HIGH-PLAINS LEE TROUGH WHERE A DRY AIR MASS WILL BE
PRESENT. BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING AND DRYING WILL BE EXACERBATED BY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. ELEVATED TO PERHAPS
BORDERLINE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED...AS SLY
TO SWLY SFC WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO AROUND 20 MPH THROUGH THE DAY.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN CRITICALLY STRONG SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
OCCURRING ON ANY MORE THAN A BRIEF/SPOTTY BASIS OUTSIDE OF THE
CRITICAL AREA IS LIMITED OWING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN STRONGER
LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW BEING PRESENT. AS SUCH...CRITICAL DESIGNATION HAS
NOT BEEN INCLUDED AT THIS TIME.

----DRY-THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN SRN NM----
AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL CONUS...THE
SLY FLOW COMPONENT W OF THE RIDGE AXIS WILL DRAW MODEST AMOUNTS OF
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO PARTS OF SRN NM WHERE DRY SFC CONDITIONS
WILL EXIST. MARGINAL BUOYANCY AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS MAY PROMOTE
ISOLATED HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF SRN NM.
THESE STORMS COULD CONTAIN LIMITED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OWING TO
RELATIVELY LOW PW AND DEEP SFC-BASED MIXED LAYERS SUPPORTING
SUB-CLOUD EVAPORATION. SOME RISK FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS MAY EXIST.
HOWEVER...DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ANY MORE THAN ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS. AS
SUCH...A DRY-THUNDERSTORM CRITICAL AREA IS NOT WARRANTED.

...COASTAL RANGES AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS OF SRN CA FROM THE ERN
TWO-THIRDS OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY EWD TO NWRN/N-CNTRL LOS ANGELES
COUNTY...
CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES WILL CONTINUE FROM D1/WED INTO D2/THU AS A
DRY AIR MASS PERSISTS...WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON
ON D2/THU EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO THE
MIDDLE TEENS. POOR RH RECOVERY IS EXPECTED THU NIGHT. LOCALLY STRONG
NWLY TO NELY SFC WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THU MORNING...STRONGEST
THROUGH FAVORED PASSES AND CANYONS...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
INITIALLY BE TIGHT. HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
DECREASING DURING THE DAY...AS THE BULK OF DETERMINISTIC MODEL
SOLUTIONS SUGGEST AN OVERALL SLACKENING OF THE SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT. WHILE VERY DRY FUELS WILL COMBINE WITH THESE WINDS AND RH
VALUES TO SUPPORT ELEVATED TO PERHAPS BORDERLINE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS...THE ANTICIPATED LOCALIZED/BRIEF NATURE OF ANY
STRONG-WIND THREAT PRECLUDES DESIGNATION OF A CRITICAL AREA AT THIS
TIME.

..COHEN.. 06/19/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...