SEL9
   
   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 849
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1015 AM EST SUN NOV 6 2005
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
   
          WESTERN INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK
          WESTERN AND CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
          A SMALL PART OF NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA
          LAKE ERIE
          LAKE ONTARIO
   
   EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1015 AM UNTIL 600
   PM EST.
   
   HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80
   MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
   
   THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80
   STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH
   NORTHEAST OF ROCHESTER NEW YORK TO 40 MILES SOUTH OF LATROBE
   PENNSYLVANIA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
   ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
   
   REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
   FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
   PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
   WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
   WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
   TORNADOES.
   
   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 847...WW 848...
   
   DISCUSSION...BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
   INCREASING OVER WRN PA/NY LATE THIS MORNING AND MOVE RAPIDLY EWD
   THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR A
   STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IN CENTRAL OH MAY ALSO SPREAD
   EWD INTO WRN NY/PA TODAY.  VERY STRONG SHEAR/WINDS JUST OFF THE
   SURFACE SUGGESTS STORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND DAMAGE AS AFTERNOON HEATING
   STEEPENS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUPPORTS MARGINAL INSTABILITY. 
   SHOULD SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY DEVELOP...SHEAR IS MORE THAN ADEQUATE
   FOR SUPERCELLS AND SMALL BOW ECHOES WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE SEVERE
   THREAT BY THE MID AFTERNOON.
   
   AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
   TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS.
   A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM MOTION
   VECTOR 24040.
   
   
   ...EVANS