SEL1
   
   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 851
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   400 PM EST SUN NOV 6 2005
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
   
          FAR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY
          EASTERN NEW YORK
          EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA
          FAR WESTERN VERMONT
          LAKE ONTARIO
   
   EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 400 PM UNTIL 1000
   PM EST.
   
   HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80
   MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
   
   THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65
   STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTH
   NORTHEAST OF SARANAC LAKE NEW YORK TO 25 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
   ALLENTOWN PENNSYLVANIA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
   THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
   
   REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
   FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
   PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
   WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
   WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
   TORNADOES.
   
   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 850...
   
   DISCUSSION...LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS WW THIS
   EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH VERY STRONG/DEEP ASCENT FROM POTENT
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.  THOUGH
   INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK...MUCAPE APPEARS SUFFICIENT TO
   MAINTAIN LINE OR BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SHEAR IS QUITE
   STRONG AND WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND SMALL BOW ECHOES.  DAMAGING
   WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.
   
   AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
   TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS.
   A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION
   VECTOR 24045.
   
   
   ...EVANS