Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL7
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 17
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
210 PM CST MON FEB 12 2007
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA
SOUTHEAST TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 210 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES NORTH OF HOUSTON
TEXAS TO 25 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 16...
DISCUSSION...TSTMS HAVE BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE DISCRETE IN THE PAST
1-2 HRS ALONG SRN END OF CONVECTIVE BAND OVER E TX/FAR WRN LA.
POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE OR NEAR-DISCRETE SFC-BASED STORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE OVER FAR SE TX/SRN LA OVER THROUGH MID
EVENING AS /1/ BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO MOISTEN AND /2/ REGION IS
GLANCED BY 50 KT MID LEVEL WSWLY SPEED MAX ASSOCIATED WITH NW TX UPR
TROUGH. GIVEN BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW INVOF CONVECTIVE BAND AND
INCREASING MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...A THREAT MAY DEVELOP FOR
TORNADOES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24030.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW7
WW 17 TORNADO LA TX CW 122010Z - 130500Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
10N HOU/HOUSTON TX/ - 25NNE LFT/LAFAYETTE LA/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM N/S /11SSE IAH - 27W BTR/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24030.
LAT...LON 30659527 31399181 29679181 28939527
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU7.
Watch 17 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #8 ON WW 17
VALID 130355Z - 130440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE LBX TO
25 WNW LCH TO 20 SSW POE TO 10 NW POE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 140.
..EDWARDS..02/13/07
ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 17
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC001-003-009-011-019-023-039-045-053-055-079-097-099-101-113-
115-130440-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
ACADIA ALLEN AVOYELLES
BEAUREGARD CALCASIEU CAMERON
EVANGELINE IBERIA JEFFERSON DAVIS
LAFAYETTE RAPIDES ST. LANDRY
ST. MARTIN ST. MARY VERMILION
VERNON
$$
TXC361-130440-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ORANGE
$$
GMZ450-452-455-130440-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LA OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #7 ON WW 17
VALID 130300Z - 130440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE LBX TO
15 NW BPT TO 45 WSW POE TO 35 WNW POE AND 20 SE LBX TO 25 NNE BPT
TO 15 SW POE TO 10 NNW POE.
..EDWARDS..02/13/07
ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 17
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC001-003-009-011-019-023-039-045-053-055-079-097-099-101-113-
115-130440-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
ACADIA ALLEN AVOYELLES
BEAUREGARD CALCASIEU CAMERON
EVANGELINE IBERIA JEFFERSON DAVIS
LAFAYETTE RAPIDES ST. LANDRY
ST. MARTIN ST. MARY VERMILION
VERNON
$$
TXC199-241-245-351-361-457-130440-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HARDIN JASPER JEFFERSON
NEWTON ORANGE TYLER
$$
GMZ450-452-455-130440-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LA OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 17
VALID 130155Z - 130240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE LBX TO
15 NW BPT TO 45 WSW POE TO 35 WNW POE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 138.
..EDWARDS..02/13/07
ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 17
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC001-003-009-011-019-023-039-045-053-055-079-097-099-101-113-
115-130240-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
ACADIA ALLEN AVOYELLES
BEAUREGARD CALCASIEU CAMERON
EVANGELINE IBERIA JEFFERSON DAVIS
LAFAYETTE RAPIDES ST. LANDRY
ST. MARTIN ST. MARY VERMILION
VERNON
$$
TXC199-241-245-351-361-457-130240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HARDIN JASPER JEFFERSON
NEWTON ORANGE TYLER
$$
GMZ450-452-455-130240-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LA OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 17
VALID 130045Z - 130140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE LBX
TO 45 NNW BPT TO 30 ESE LFK.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 138
..EVANS..02/13/07
ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 17
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC001-003-009-011-019-023-039-045-053-055-079-097-099-101-113-
115-130140-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
ACADIA ALLEN AVOYELLES
BEAUREGARD CALCASIEU CAMERON
EVANGELINE IBERIA JEFFERSON DAVIS
LAFAYETTE RAPIDES ST. LANDRY
ST. MARTIN ST. MARY VERMILION
VERNON
$$
TXC071-199-241-245-351-361-457-130140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHAMBERS HARDIN JASPER
JEFFERSON NEWTON ORANGE
TYLER
$$
GMZ335-355-450-452-455-130140-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
GALVESTON BAY
COASTAL WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT TX OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LA OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 17
VALID 122345Z - 130040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE LBX
TO 45 NNW BPT TO 25 ESE LFK.
..EVANS..02/12/07
ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 17
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC001-003-009-011-019-023-039-045-053-055-079-097-099-101-113-
115-130040-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
ACADIA ALLEN AVOYELLES
BEAUREGARD CALCASIEU CAMERON
EVANGELINE IBERIA JEFFERSON DAVIS
LAFAYETTE RAPIDES ST. LANDRY
ST. MARTIN ST. MARY VERMILION
VERNON
$$
TXC071-199-241-245-351-361-457-130040-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHAMBERS HARDIN JASPER
JEFFERSON NEWTON ORANGE
TYLER
$$
GMZ335-355-450-452-455-130040-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
GALVESTON BAY
COASTAL WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT TX OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LA OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 17
VALID 122255Z - 122340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE LBX
TO 15 SE LFK.
..EVANS..02/12/07
ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 17
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC001-003-009-011-019-023-039-045-053-055-079-097-099-101-113-
115-122340-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
ACADIA ALLEN AVOYELLES
BEAUREGARD CALCASIEU CAMERON
EVANGELINE IBERIA JEFFERSON DAVIS
LAFAYETTE RAPIDES ST. LANDRY
ST. MARTIN ST. MARY VERMILION
VERNON
$$
TXC071-167-199-241-245-291-351-361-373-457-122340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHAMBERS GALVESTON HARDIN
JASPER JEFFERSON LIBERTY
NEWTON ORANGE POLK
TYLER
$$
GMZ335-355-450-452-455-122340-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
GALVESTON BAY
COASTAL WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT TX OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LA OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 17
VALID 122145Z - 122240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..THOMPSON..02/12/07
ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 17
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC001-003-009-011-019-023-039-045-053-055-079-097-099-101-113-
115-122240-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
ACADIA ALLEN AVOYELLES
BEAUREGARD CALCASIEU CAMERON
EVANGELINE IBERIA JEFFERSON DAVIS
LAFAYETTE RAPIDES ST. LANDRY
ST. MARTIN ST. MARY VERMILION
VERNON
$$
TXC039-071-167-199-201-241-245-291-351-361-373-457-122240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRAZORIA CHAMBERS GALVESTON
HARDIN HARRIS JASPER
JEFFERSON LIBERTY NEWTON
ORANGE POLK TYLER
$$
GMZ335-355-450-452-455-122240-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
GALVESTON BAY
COASTAL WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT TX OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LA OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 17
VALID 122100Z - 122240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..THOMPSON..02/12/07
ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 17
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC001-003-009-011-019-023-039-045-053-055-079-097-099-101-113-
115-122240-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
ACADIA ALLEN AVOYELLES
BEAUREGARD CALCASIEU CAMERON
EVANGELINE IBERIA JEFFERSON DAVIS
LAFAYETTE RAPIDES ST. LANDRY
ST. MARTIN ST. MARY VERMILION
VERNON
$$
TXC039-071-167-199-201-241-245-291-351-361-373-457-122240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRAZORIA CHAMBERS GALVESTON
HARDIN HARRIS JASPER
JEFFERSON LIBERTY NEWTON
ORANGE POLK TYLER
$$
GMZ335-355-450-452-455-122240-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
GALVESTON BAY
COASTAL WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT TX OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LA OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (<5%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (10%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.