Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 82
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
315 PM CDT WED MAR 28 2007
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND THE SOUTH PLAINS OF WEST TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM 315 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.
...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...
DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTH OF GUYMON
OKLAHOMA TO 50 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF LUBBOCK TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 80...WW 81...
DISCUSSION...THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO MOISTEN AS BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS OF 60-64 F SPREAD NWD/NWWD ON STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL
FLOW. ALSO...SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 70S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...RESULTING IN WEAKENING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION.
THE DRYLINE IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER...AND
SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS. ALSO...A SUBTLE MID-UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ROTATING
NEWD TOWARD W/NW TX...AND AT LEAST ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INVOF THE E CENTRAL AND SE TX PANHANDLE.
GIVEN THE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRENGTHENING WIND
FIELDS IN AREA PROFILERS AND VWP/S...AS WELL AS SHORT TERM MODEL
FORECASTS...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE INITIAL ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG
TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL. BY EARLY TONIGHT...CONVECTION MAY
GROW UPSCALE INTO ONE OR MORE LINE SEGMENTS WITH MORE OF A LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW2
WW 82 TORNADO OK TX 282015Z - 290500Z
AXIS..80 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
20N GUY/GUYMON OK/ - 50SSE LBB/LUBBOCK TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 70NM E/W /26W LBL - 47SSE LBB/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..3 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
LAT...LON 36950005 32990011 32990287 36950294
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU2.
Watch 82 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #7 ON WW 82
VALID 290340Z - 290440Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BOTHWELL..03/29/07
ATTN...WFO...AMA...LUB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 82
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC007-025-139-290440-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEAVER CIMARRON TEXAS
$$
TXC011-017-045-065-069-075-079-087-101-107-111-117-125-129-153-
169-179-189-191-195-205-211-219-233-263-269-279-295-303-305-341-
345-357-359-369-375-381-393-421-433-437-445-483-501-290440-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARMSTRONG BAILEY BRISCOE
CARSON CASTRO CHILDRESS
COCHRAN COLLINGSWORTH COTTLE
CROSBY DALLAM DEAF SMITH
DICKENS DONLEY FLOYD
GARZA GRAY HALE
HALL HANSFORD HARTLEY
HEMPHILL HOCKLEY HUTCHINSON
KENT KING LAMB
LIPSCOMB LUBBOCK LYNN
MOORE MOTLEY OCHILTREE
OLDHAM PARMER POTTER
RANDALL ROBERTS SHERMAN
STONEWALL SWISHER TERRY
WHEELER YOAKUM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 82
VALID 290235Z - 290340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 365
..BOTHWELL..03/29/07
ATTN...WFO...AMA...LUB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 82
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC007-025-139-290340-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEAVER CIMARRON TEXAS
$$
TXC011-017-045-065-069-075-079-087-101-107-111-117-125-129-153-
169-179-189-191-195-205-211-219-233-263-269-279-295-303-305-341-
345-357-359-369-375-381-393-421-433-437-445-483-501-290340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARMSTRONG BAILEY BRISCOE
CARSON CASTRO CHILDRESS
COCHRAN COLLINGSWORTH COTTLE
CROSBY DALLAM DEAF SMITH
DICKENS DONLEY FLOYD
GARZA GRAY HALE
HALL HANSFORD HARTLEY
HEMPHILL HOCKLEY HUTCHINSON
KENT KING LAMB
LIPSCOMB LUBBOCK LYNN
MOORE MOTLEY OCHILTREE
OLDHAM PARMER POTTER
RANDALL ROBERTS SHERMAN
STONEWALL SWISHER TERRY
WHEELER YOAKUM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 82
VALID 290145Z - 290240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 364
..BOTHWELL..03/29/07
ATTN...WFO...AMA...LUB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 82
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC007-025-139-290240-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEAVER CIMARRON TEXAS
$$
TXC011-017-045-065-069-075-079-087-101-107-111-117-125-129-153-
169-179-189-191-195-205-211-219-233-263-269-279-295-303-305-341-
345-357-359-369-375-381-393-421-433-437-445-483-501-290240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARMSTRONG BAILEY BRISCOE
CARSON CASTRO CHILDRESS
COCHRAN COLLINGSWORTH COTTLE
CROSBY DALLAM DEAF SMITH
DICKENS DONLEY FLOYD
GARZA GRAY HALE
HALL HANSFORD HARTLEY
HEMPHILL HOCKLEY HUTCHINSON
KENT KING LAMB
LIPSCOMB LUBBOCK LYNN
MOORE MOTLEY OCHILTREE
OLDHAM PARMER POTTER
RANDALL ROBERTS SHERMAN
STONEWALL SWISHER TERRY
WHEELER YOAKUM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 82
VALID 290045Z - 290140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GOSS..03/29/07
ATTN...WFO...AMA...LUB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 82
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC007-025-139-290140-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEAVER CIMARRON TEXAS
$$
TXC011-017-045-065-069-075-079-087-101-107-111-117-125-129-153-
169-179-189-191-195-205-211-219-233-263-269-279-295-303-305-341-
345-357-359-369-375-381-393-421-433-437-445-483-501-290140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARMSTRONG BAILEY BRISCOE
CARSON CASTRO CHILDRESS
COCHRAN COLLINGSWORTH COTTLE
CROSBY DALLAM DEAF SMITH
DICKENS DONLEY FLOYD
GARZA GRAY HALE
HALL HANSFORD HARTLEY
HEMPHILL HOCKLEY HUTCHINSON
KENT KING LAMB
LIPSCOMB LUBBOCK LYNN
MOORE MOTLEY OCHILTREE
OLDHAM PARMER POTTER
RANDALL ROBERTS SHERMAN
STONEWALL SWISHER TERRY
WHEELER YOAKUM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 82
VALID 282345Z - 290040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GOSS..03/28/07
ATTN...WFO...AMA...LUB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 82
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC007-025-139-290040-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEAVER CIMARRON TEXAS
$$
TXC011-017-045-065-069-075-079-087-101-107-111-117-125-129-153-
169-179-189-191-195-205-211-219-233-263-269-279-295-303-305-341-
345-357-359-369-375-381-393-421-433-437-445-483-501-290040-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARMSTRONG BAILEY BRISCOE
CARSON CASTRO CHILDRESS
COCHRAN COLLINGSWORTH COTTLE
CROSBY DALLAM DEAF SMITH
DICKENS DONLEY FLOYD
GARZA GRAY HALE
HALL HANSFORD HARTLEY
HEMPHILL HOCKLEY HUTCHINSON
KENT KING LAMB
LIPSCOMB LUBBOCK LYNN
MOORE MOTLEY OCHILTREE
OLDHAM PARMER POTTER
RANDALL ROBERTS SHERMAN
STONEWALL SWISHER TERRY
WHEELER YOAKUM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 82
VALID 282230Z - 282340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GOSS..03/28/07
ATTN...WFO...AMA...LUB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 82
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC007-025-139-282340-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEAVER CIMARRON TEXAS
$$
TXC011-017-045-065-069-075-079-087-101-107-111-117-125-129-153-
169-179-189-191-195-205-211-219-233-263-269-279-295-303-305-341-
345-357-359-369-375-381-393-421-433-437-445-483-501-282340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARMSTRONG BAILEY BRISCOE
CARSON CASTRO CHILDRESS
COCHRAN COLLINGSWORTH COTTLE
CROSBY DALLAM DEAF SMITH
DICKENS DONLEY FLOYD
GARZA GRAY HALE
HALL HANSFORD HARTLEY
HEMPHILL HOCKLEY HUTCHINSON
KENT KING LAMB
LIPSCOMB LUBBOCK LYNN
MOORE MOTLEY OCHILTREE
OLDHAM PARMER POTTER
RANDALL ROBERTS SHERMAN
STONEWALL SWISHER TERRY
WHEELER YOAKUM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 82
VALID 282150Z - 282240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GOSS..03/28/07
ATTN...WFO...AMA...LUB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 82
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC007-025-139-282240-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEAVER CIMARRON TEXAS
$$
TXC011-017-045-065-069-075-079-087-101-107-111-117-125-129-153-
169-179-189-191-195-205-211-219-233-263-269-279-295-303-305-341-
345-357-359-369-375-381-393-421-433-437-445-483-501-282240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARMSTRONG BAILEY BRISCOE
CARSON CASTRO CHILDRESS
COCHRAN COLLINGSWORTH COTTLE
CROSBY DALLAM DEAF SMITH
DICKENS DONLEY FLOYD
GARZA GRAY HALE
HALL HANSFORD HARTLEY
HEMPHILL HOCKLEY HUTCHINSON
KENT KING LAMB
LIPSCOMB LUBBOCK LYNN
MOORE MOTLEY OCHILTREE
OLDHAM PARMER POTTER
RANDALL ROBERTS SHERMAN
STONEWALL SWISHER TERRY
WHEELER YOAKUM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
High (80%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Mod (60%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
High (>95%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
High (80%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (>95%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.