Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 581
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
305 PM CDT FRI AUG 10 2007
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 305 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES WEST OF
GRAND FORKS NORTH DAKOTA TO 50 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF BEMIDJI
MINNESOTA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 579...WW 580...
DISCUSSION...ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORMED EARLIER OVER
CENTRAL/NE ND MAY BE EVOLVING INTO MORE SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS AND CONVECTIVE INHIBITION DECREASES
GRADUALLY. THERE HAS BEEN SOME TENDENCY FOR MOISTURE TO MIX OUT
FARTHER SE IN MN...BUT A CORRIDOR OF 65-70 F DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE
MAINTAINED ALONG THE ENE-WSW ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS NE ND/NW
MN. ISOLATED ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS STORMS
INTERACT WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...BUT DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE STORM THREATS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26035.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW1
WW 581 SEVERE TSTM MN ND 102005Z - 110300Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
50W GFK/GRAND FORKS ND/ - 50NNE BJI/BEMIDJI MN/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM N/S /43W GFK - 42NNE BJI/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26035.
LAT...LON 48819826 49069451 47319451 47089826
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU1.
Watch 581 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 581
VALID 110235Z - 110340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW DTL
TO 30 ENE TVF TO 15 S ROX TO 30 ENE RRT.
..LEVIT..08/11/07
ATTN...WFO...FGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 581
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC007-029-077-087-110340-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BELTRAMI CLEARWATER LAKE OF THE WOODS
MAHNOMEN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 581
VALID 110140Z - 110240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE JMS
TO 15 ENE RRT.
..LEVIT..08/11/07
ATTN...WFO...FGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 581
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC007-029-077-087-107-113-119-125-110240-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BELTRAMI CLEARWATER LAKE OF THE WOODS
MAHNOMEN NORMAN PENNINGTON
POLK RED LAKE
$$
NDC003-017-097-110240-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARNES CASS TRAILL
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 581
VALID 110045Z - 110140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE JMS
TO 20 ENE RRT.
..LEVIT..08/11/07
ATTN...WFO...FGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 581
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC007-029-077-087-107-113-119-125-110140-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BELTRAMI CLEARWATER LAKE OF THE WOODS
MAHNOMEN NORMAN PENNINGTON
POLK RED LAKE
$$
NDC003-017-097-110140-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARNES CASS TRAILL
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 581
VALID 102335Z - 110040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..LEVIT..08/10/07
ATTN...WFO...FGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 581
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC007-029-069-077-087-089-107-113-119-125-135-110040-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BELTRAMI CLEARWATER KITTSON
LAKE OF THE WOODS MAHNOMEN MARSHALL
NORMAN PENNINGTON POLK
RED LAKE ROSEAU
$$
NDC003-017-035-039-063-091-097-099-110040-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARNES CASS GRAND FORKS
GRIGGS NELSON STEELE
TRAILL WALSH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 581
VALID 102235Z - 102340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..LEVIT..08/10/07
ATTN...WFO...FGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 581
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC007-029-069-077-087-089-107-113-119-125-135-102340-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BELTRAMI CLEARWATER KITTSON
LAKE OF THE WOODS MAHNOMEN MARSHALL
NORMAN PENNINGTON POLK
RED LAKE ROSEAU
$$
NDC003-017-035-039-063-091-097-099-102340-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARNES CASS GRAND FORKS
GRIGGS NELSON STEELE
TRAILL WALSH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 581
VALID 102140Z - 102240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..LEVIT..08/10/07
ATTN...WFO...FGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 581
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC007-029-069-077-087-089-107-113-119-125-135-102240-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BELTRAMI CLEARWATER KITTSON
LAKE OF THE WOODS MAHNOMEN MARSHALL
NORMAN PENNINGTON POLK
RED LAKE ROSEAU
$$
NDC003-017-035-039-063-091-097-099-102240-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARNES CASS GRAND FORKS
GRIGGS NELSON STEELE
TRAILL WALSH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.