Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 582
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
340 PM CDT FRI AUG 10 2007
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 340 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF JAMESTOWN NORTH DAKOTA TO 35 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST
OF MOBRIDGE SOUTH DAKOTA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH
SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 579...WW 580...WW 581...
DISCUSSION...CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG A NE-SW
SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS SRN ND/NRN SD. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
MODIFIED MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE CAP IS WEAKENING ALONG
THIS CORRIDOR...AND THAT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE THE
NEXT FEW HOURS GIVEN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 40 KT AND
MLCAPE OF 1500-3000 J/KG. TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS NEAR 30 F
SUGGEST THAT THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE LIMITED IN SD...WITH A
SLIGHTLY GREATER THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO ALONG THE FRONT IN
ND. STILL...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS THROUGH THE EVENING.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26025.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW2
WW 582 SEVERE TSTM ND SD 102040Z - 110300Z
AXIS..45 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
35NNW JMS/JAMESTOWN ND/ - 35SSW MBG/MOBRIDGE SD/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 40NM E/W /79WSW GFK - 43E DPR/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26025.
LAT...LON 47389800 45069977 45060162 47389993
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU2.
Watch 582 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #7 ON WW 582
VALID 110245Z - 110340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S MBG TO
45 NE MBG TO 45 NW ABR.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1717
..LEVIT..08/11/07
ATTN...WFO...BIS...ABR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 582
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NDC021-045-110340-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DICKEY LAMOURE
$$
SDC013-045-049-089-107-115-110340-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWN EDMUNDS FAULK
MCPHERSON POTTER SPINK
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 582
VALID 110240Z - 110300Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
WW 582 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 110300Z.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1717
..LEVIT..08/11/07
ATTN...WFO...BIS...ABR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 582
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NDC021-029-031-043-045-047-051-085-093-103-110300-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DICKEY EMMONS FOSTER
KIDDER LAMOURE LOGAN
MCINTOSH SIOUX STUTSMAN
WELLS
$$
SDC021-031-041-045-089-107-129-110300-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAMPBELL CORSON DEWEY
EDMUNDS MCPHERSON POTTER
WALWORTH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 582
VALID 110145Z - 110240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..LEVIT..08/11/07
ATTN...WFO...BIS...ABR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 582
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NDC021-029-031-043-045-047-051-085-093-103-110240-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DICKEY EMMONS FOSTER
KIDDER LAMOURE LOGAN
MCINTOSH SIOUX STUTSMAN
WELLS
$$
SDC021-031-041-045-089-107-129-110240-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAMPBELL CORSON DEWEY
EDMUNDS MCPHERSON POTTER
WALWORTH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 582
VALID 110045Z - 110140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..LEVIT..08/11/07
ATTN...WFO...BIS...ABR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 582
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NDC021-029-031-043-045-047-051-085-093-103-110140-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DICKEY EMMONS FOSTER
KIDDER LAMOURE LOGAN
MCINTOSH SIOUX STUTSMAN
WELLS
$$
SDC021-031-041-045-089-107-129-110140-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAMPBELL CORSON DEWEY
EDMUNDS MCPHERSON POTTER
WALWORTH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 582
VALID 102340Z - 110040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..LEVIT..08/10/07
ATTN...WFO...BIS...ABR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 582
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NDC021-029-031-043-045-047-051-085-093-103-110040-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DICKEY EMMONS FOSTER
KIDDER LAMOURE LOGAN
MCINTOSH SIOUX STUTSMAN
WELLS
$$
SDC021-031-041-045-089-107-129-110040-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAMPBELL CORSON DEWEY
EDMUNDS MCPHERSON POTTER
WALWORTH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 582
VALID 102235Z - 102340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..LEVIT..08/10/07
ATTN...WFO...BIS...ABR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 582
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NDC021-029-031-043-045-047-051-085-093-103-102340-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DICKEY EMMONS FOSTER
KIDDER LAMOURE LOGAN
MCINTOSH SIOUX STUTSMAN
WELLS
$$
SDC021-031-041-045-089-107-129-102340-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAMPBELL CORSON DEWEY
EDMUNDS MCPHERSON POTTER
WALWORTH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 582
VALID 102140Z - 102240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..LEVIT..08/10/07
ATTN...WFO...BIS...ABR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 582
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NDC021-029-031-043-045-047-051-085-093-103-102240-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DICKEY EMMONS FOSTER
KIDDER LAMOURE LOGAN
MCINTOSH SIOUX STUTSMAN
WELLS
$$
SDC021-031-041-045-089-107-129-102240-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAMPBELL CORSON DEWEY
EDMUNDS MCPHERSON POTTER
WALWORTH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (40%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.