Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL9
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 629
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
215 PM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA
WESTERN VIRGINIA
A SMALL PART OF THE EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 215 PM UNTIL
900 PM EDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM STAUNTON VIRGINIA TO
15 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF HICKORY NORTH CAROLINA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS IN ADVANCE OF THE REMNANTS OF TS ERIN. STRONG SURFACE
HEATING AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL FAVOR DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS AS CONVECTION ORGANIZES INTO SEVERAL SHORT LINE
SEGMENTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO NC/VA.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27030.
...THOMPSON
SEL9
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 629
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
215 PM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA
WESTERN VIRGINIA
A SMALL PART OF THE EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 215 PM UNTIL
900 PM EDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM STAUNTON VIRGINIA TO
15 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF HICKORY NORTH CAROLINA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS IN ADVANCE OF THE REMNANTS OF TS ERIN. STRONG SURFACE
HEATING AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL FAVOR DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS AS CONVECTION ORGANIZES INTO SEVERAL SHORT LINE
SEGMENTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO NC/VA.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27030.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW9
WW 629 SEVERE TSTM NC VA WV 211815Z - 220100Z
AXIS..55 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
SHD/STAUNTON VA/ - 15ESE HKY/HICKORY NC/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM E/W /53WSW CSN - 27NNW CLT/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27030.
LAT...LON 38277788 35638015 35638211 38277991
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU9.
Watch 629 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 629
VALID 212140Z - 212240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE CLT
TO 35 ESE LYH.
..CROSBIE..08/21/07
ATTN...WFO...RAH...GSP...RNK...LWX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 629
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NCC001-033-057-081-151-157-159-169-212240-
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALAMANCE CASWELL DAVIDSON
GUILFORD RANDOLPH ROCKINGHAM
ROWAN STOKES
$$
VAC037-083-212240-
VA
. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHARLOTTE HALIFAX
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 629
VALID 212055Z - 212140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE HKY
TO 25 W GSO TO 20 W DAN TO 25 S LYH TO 35 ENE LYH TO 10 WNW SHD.
..CROSBIE..08/21/07
ATTN...WFO...RAH...GSP...RNK...LWX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 629
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NCC001-033-057-059-067-081-151-157-159-169-171-212240-
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALAMANCE CASWELL DAVIDSON
DAVIE FORSYTH GUILFORD
RANDOLPH ROCKINGHAM ROWAN
STOKES SURRY
$$
VAC003-011-015-029-031-037-079-083-089-091-125-143-165-540-590-
660-690-790-820-212240-
VA
. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALBEMARLE APPOMATTOX AUGUSTA
BUCKINGHAM CAMPBELL CHARLOTTE
GREENE HALIFAX HENRY
HIGHLAND NELSON PITTSYLVANIA
ROCKINGHAM
VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
CHARLOTTESVILLE DANVILLE HARRISONBURG
MARTINSVILLE STAUNTON WAYNESBORO
$$
WVC071-212240-
WV
. WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
PENDLETON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 629
VALID 211955Z - 212050Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S BLF TO
20 SSE PSK TO 10 S ROA TO 10 E ROA TO 30 NW LYH TO 40 SW SHD TO
40 S EKN.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1833.
..CROSBIE..08/21/07
ATTN...WFO...RAH...GSP...RNK...LWX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 629
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NCC001-003-005-009-011-021-023-027-033-035-057-059-067-081-097-
111-115-121-151-157-159-169-171-189-193-197-199-212140-
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALAMANCE ALEXANDER ALLEGHANY
ASHE AVERY BUNCOMBE
BURKE CALDWELL CASWELL
CATAWBA DAVIDSON DAVIE
FORSYTH GUILFORD IREDELL
MCDOWELL MADISON MITCHELL
RANDOLPH ROCKINGHAM ROWAN
STOKES SURRY WATAUGA
WILKES YADKIN YANCEY
$$
VAC003-009-011-015-019-029-031-035-037-063-067-077-079-083-089-
091-125-141-143-163-165-515-530-540-590-640-660-678-680-690-790-
820-212140-
VA
. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALBEMARLE AMHERST APPOMATTOX
AUGUSTA BEDFORD BUCKINGHAM
CAMPBELL CARROLL CHARLOTTE
FLOYD FRANKLIN GRAYSON
GREENE HALIFAX HENRY
HIGHLAND NELSON PATRICK
PITTSYLVANIA ROCKBRIDGE ROCKINGHAM
VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
BEDFORD BUENA VISTA CHARLOTTESVILLE
DANVILLE GALAX HARRISONBURG
LEXINGTON LYNCHBURG MARTINSVILLE
STAUNTON WAYNESBORO
$$
WVC071-212140-
WV
. WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
PENDLETON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (<5%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (10%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
weather.gov 
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