Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL0
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 630
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
425 PM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 425 PM UNTIL
1100 PM EDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTHEAST OF
RICHMOND VIRGINIA TO 25 MILES SOUTH OF RALEIGH NORTH CAROLINA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 629...
DISCUSSION...ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD
FROM CENTRAL VA/NW NC INTO SE VA AND NE NC THROUGH LATE EVENING...IN
ADVANCE OF THE REMNANTS OF TC ERIN. A VERY DEEP MIXED
LAYER/INVERTED-V PROFILES ARE PRESENT FROM CENTRAL VA INTO CENTRAL
NC...WHILE STRONGER INSTABILITY AND RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
ARE PRESENT FARTHER TO THE E. THE NET RESULT WILL BE A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR MAINTAINING THE STORMS INTO THE LATE EVENING
HOURS...WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27035.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW0
WW 630 SEVERE TSTM NC VA CW 212025Z - 220300Z
AXIS..85 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
55NE RIC/RICHMOND VA/ - 25S RDU/RALEIGH NC/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 75NM E/W /48NE RIC - 22S RDU/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27035.
LAT...LON 38047502 35497726 35498029 38047816
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU0.
Watch 630 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 630
VALID 220140Z - 220240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E RWI TO
40 ESE RZZ TO 20 ENE ORF.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1839
..JEWELL..08/22/07
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 630
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NCC015-029-041-053-073-139-143-220240-
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERTIE CAMDEN CHOWAN
CURRITUCK GATES PASQUOTANK
PERQUIMANS
$$
VAC550-810-220240-
VA
. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
CHESAPEAKE VIRGINIA BEACH
$$
ANZ633-220240-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
CURRITUCK SOUND
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 630
VALID 220040Z - 220140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW GSB TO
30 ESE RZZ TO 30 W ORF TO 25 WNW ORF TO 40 SSW WAL.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1839.
..CROSBIE..08/22/07
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 630
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NCC015-029-041-053-073-091-139-143-191-220140-
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERTIE CAMDEN CHOWAN
CURRITUCK GATES HERTFORD
PASQUOTANK PERQUIMANS WAYNE
$$
VAC550-710-740-800-810-220140-
VA
. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
CHESAPEAKE NORFOLK PORTSMOUTH
SUFFOLK VIRGINIA BEACH
$$
ANZ632-633-220140-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW POINT COMFORT TO CAPE HENRY VA
CURRITUCK SOUND
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 630
VALID 212330Z - 220040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW RDU
TO 15 NW RWI TO 45 NE RZZ TO 40 ENE RIC TO 15 ESE WAL.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1836.
..CROSBIE..08/21/07
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 630
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NCC015-029-041-053-065-073-083-091-101-127-131-139-143-183-191-
195-220040-
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERTIE CAMDEN CHOWAN
CURRITUCK EDGECOMBE GATES
HALIFAX HERTFORD JOHNSTON
NASH NORTHAMPTON PASQUOTANK
PERQUIMANS WAKE WAYNE
WILSON
$$
VAC001-073-093-095-103-115-119-131-175-181-199-550-620-650-700-
710-735-740-800-810-830-220040-
VA
. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ACCOMACK GLOUCESTER ISLE OF WIGHT
JAMES CITY LANCASTER MATHEWS
MIDDLESEX NORTHAMPTON SOUTHAMPTON
SURRY YORK
VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
CHESAPEAKE FRANKLIN HAMPTON
NEWPORT NEWS NORFOLK POQUOSON
PORTSMOUTH SUFFOLK VIRGINIA BEACH
WILLIAMSBURG
$$
ANZ630-631-632-633-220040-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT TO WINDMILL POINT VA
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM WINDMILL POINT TO NEW POINT COMFORT VA
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW POINT COMFORT TO CAPE HENRY VA
CURRITUCK SOUND
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 630
VALID 212240Z - 212340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S GSO TO
25 WNW RDU TO 20 SW AVC TO 25 NNE AVC TO 15 WSW RIC TO 35 E CHO.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1836
..CROSBIE..08/21/07
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 630
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NCC015-029-037-041-053-063-065-069-073-077-083-091-101-127-131-
135-139-143-181-183-185-191-195-212340-
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERTIE CAMDEN CHATHAM
CHOWAN CURRITUCK DURHAM
EDGECOMBE FRANKLIN GATES
GRANVILLE HALIFAX HERTFORD
JOHNSTON NASH NORTHAMPTON
ORANGE PASQUOTANK PERQUIMANS
VANCE WAKE WARREN
WAYNE WILSON
$$
VAC001-025-033-036-041-053-057-073-081-085-087-093-095-097-101-
103-115-119-127-131-133-149-159-175-181-183-193-199-550-570-595-
620-650-670-700-710-730-735-740-760-800-810-830-212340-
VA
. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ACCOMACK BRUNSWICK CAROLINE
CHARLES CITY CHESTERFIELD DINWIDDIE
ESSEX GLOUCESTER GREENSVILLE
HANOVER HENRICO ISLE OF WIGHT
JAMES CITY KING AND QUEEN KING WILLIAM
LANCASTER MATHEWS MIDDLESEX
NEW KENT NORTHAMPTON NORTHUMBERLAND
PRINCE GEORGE RICHMOND SOUTHAMPTON
SURRY SUSSEX WESTMORELAND
YORK
VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
CHESAPEAKE COLONIAL HEIGHTS EMPORIA
FRANKLIN HAMPTON HOPEWELL
NEWPORT NEWS NORFOLK PETERSBURG
POQUOSON PORTSMOUTH RICHMOND
SUFFOLK VIRGINIA BEACH WILLIAMSBURG
$$
ANZ630-631-632-633-212340-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT TO WINDMILL POINT VA
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM WINDMILL POINT TO NEW POINT COMFORT VA
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW POINT COMFORT TO CAPE HENRY VA
CURRITUCK SOUND
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 630
VALID 212140Z - 212240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE DAN
TO 35 WNW AVC TO 35 N AVC TO 35 W RIC TO 15 SE CHO.
..CROSBIE..08/21/07
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 630
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NCC015-029-037-041-053-063-065-069-073-077-083-091-101-127-131-
135-139-143-145-181-183-185-191-195-212240-
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERTIE CAMDEN CHATHAM
CHOWAN CURRITUCK DURHAM
EDGECOMBE FRANKLIN GATES
GRANVILLE HALIFAX HERTFORD
JOHNSTON NASH NORTHAMPTON
ORANGE PASQUOTANK PERQUIMANS
PERSON VANCE WAKE
WARREN WAYNE WILSON
$$
VAC001-007-025-033-036-041-053-057-073-075-081-085-087-093-095-
097-101-103-109-111-115-117-119-127-131-133-135-145-149-159-175-
181-183-193-199-550-570-595-620-650-670-700-710-730-735-740-760-
800-810-830-212240-
VA
. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ACCOMACK AMELIA BRUNSWICK
CAROLINE CHARLES CITY CHESTERFIELD
DINWIDDIE ESSEX GLOUCESTER
GOOCHLAND GREENSVILLE HANOVER
HENRICO ISLE OF WIGHT JAMES CITY
KING AND QUEEN KING WILLIAM LANCASTER
LOUISA LUNENBURG MATHEWS
MECKLENBURG MIDDLESEX NEW KENT
NORTHAMPTON NORTHUMBERLAND NOTTOWAY
POWHATAN PRINCE GEORGE RICHMOND
SOUTHAMPTON SURRY SUSSEX
WESTMORELAND YORK
VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
CHESAPEAKE COLONIAL HEIGHTS EMPORIA
FRANKLIN HAMPTON HOPEWELL
NEWPORT NEWS NORFOLK PETERSBURG
POQUOSON PORTSMOUTH RICHMOND
SUFFOLK VIRGINIA BEACH WILLIAMSBURG
$$
ANZ630-631-632-633-212240-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT TO WINDMILL POINT VA
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM WINDMILL POINT TO NEW POINT COMFORT VA
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW POINT COMFORT TO CAPE HENRY VA
CURRITUCK SOUND
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (10%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.