Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL3
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 673
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
345 PM CDT THU SEP 20 2007
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 345 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 40 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTHWEST OF
REDWOOD FALLS MINNESOTA TO 25 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF MINNEAPOLIS
MINNESOTA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
DISCUSSION...ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUES WELL N OF THE SURFACE
WARM FRONT...WHICH HAS NOW DEVELOPED NWD INTO THE MSP AREA. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM/MOISTEN S OF THE BOUNDARY...AND
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN FOR SURFACE-BASED
PARCELS ACROSS SW AND S CENTRAL MN. THE NEWER STORM DEVELOPMENT TO
THE W OF MSP MAY STILL BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...BUT IT IS VERY CLOSE
TO SURFACE BOUNDARY. GIVEN THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PRESENT...ANY
STORMS ROOTED IN THE NEAR-SURFACE LAYER WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
TORNADOES. OTHERWISE...LARGE HAIL AND A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH LATE EVENING.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26030.
...THOMPSON
SEL3
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 673
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
345 PM CDT THU SEP 20 2007
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 345 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 40 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTHWEST OF
REDWOOD FALLS MINNESOTA TO 25 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF MINNEAPOLIS
MINNESOTA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
DISCUSSION...ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUES WELL N OF THE SURFACE
WARM FRONT...WHICH HAS NOW DEVELOPED NWD INTO THE MSP AREA. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM/MOISTEN S OF THE BOUNDARY...AND
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN FOR SURFACE-BASED
PARCELS ACROSS SW AND S CENTRAL MN. THE NEWER STORM DEVELOPMENT TO
THE W OF MSP MAY STILL BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...BUT IT IS VERY CLOSE
TO SURFACE BOUNDARY. GIVEN THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PRESENT...ANY
STORMS ROOTED IN THE NEAR-SURFACE LAYER WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
TORNADOES. OTHERWISE...LARGE HAIL AND A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH LATE EVENING.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26030.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW3
WW 673 TORNADO MN 202045Z - 210300Z
AXIS..40 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
50NW RWF/REDWOOD FALLS MN/ - 25ENE MSP/MINNEAPOLIS MN/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 35NM N/S /46NW RWF - 22ENE MSP/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26030.
LAT...LON 45639580 45599275 44439275 44479580
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU3.
Watch 673 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 673
VALID 210040Z - 210140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..09/21/07
ATTN...WFO...MPX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 673
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC003-019-023-025-037-049-053-059-067-073-085-093-121-123-129-
139-141-143-145-149-151-163-171-173-210140-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANOKA CARVER CHIPPEWA
CHISAGO DAKOTA GOODHUE
HENNEPIN ISANTI KANDIYOHI
LAC QUI PARLE MCLEOD MEEKER
POPE RAMSEY RENVILLE
SCOTT SHERBURNE SIBLEY
STEARNS STEVENS SWIFT
WASHINGTON WRIGHT YELLOW MEDICINE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 673
VALID 202355Z - 210040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..09/20/07
ATTN...WFO...MPX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 673
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC003-019-023-025-037-053-059-067-073-085-093-121-123-129-139-
141-143-145-149-151-163-171-173-210040-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANOKA CARVER CHIPPEWA
CHISAGO DAKOTA HENNEPIN
ISANTI KANDIYOHI LAC QUI PARLE
MCLEOD MEEKER POPE
RAMSEY RENVILLE SCOTT
SHERBURNE SIBLEY STEARNS
STEVENS SWIFT WASHINGTON
WRIGHT YELLOW MEDICINE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.